Current Situation: Environment Canada (EC) has issued red warnings for severe wind and snowfall in Newfoundland and Labrador; winter storms in New Brunswick; heavy snowfall in parts of Ontario, and Quebec; and rainfall and wind in Nova Scotia as of March 24. Ecuador’s Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (INHAMI), the national meteorological service, has issued a red alert, the highest on a four-tier scale, for heavy rainfall across the western Andean Mountain Range in the provinces of Carchi, Esmeraldas, Imbabura, Los Rios, Pichincha, and Santo Domingo until March 27. In the USA, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued warning for a significant winter storm bringing heavy snow, strong winds, and possible blizzard conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest until at least March 26. NWS has also forecast isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the afternoon to the night hours (local time) on March 25 across central Texas into Kansas. Consequently, due to adverse weather conditions, power outages affecting over 199,000 customers in Maine, over 90,000 customers in New York, and over 75,000 in New Hampshire, are ongoing as of March 24.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Canada, Ecuador and the USA on March 24-27 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. Allot for disruptions to services due to the ongoing power outages in the aforementioned regions. 

Current Situation: The Associacion Trabajodres del Estado (ATE) workers’ union has called for protests nationwide from 11:00 (local time) on March 25. In Buenos Aires, a protest is slated outside the Polo Cientifico Tecnologico. Protests will take place outside Centros Cientificos y Tecnologicos located nationwide in major cities, including at Universidad Nacional de Cordoba in Cordoba and at Ciudad Universitaria Rosoario in Rosario, Santa Fe. Protests are being called to denounce the layoff of 1,600 administrative staff at the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas national scientific and technical research agency on March 21.  

Assessments & Forecast: Considering ATE’s mobilization capabilities, protests will likely witness a turnout in the high hundreds to low thousands, with the highest attendance likely in Buenos Aires. Due to heightened sentiments about the layoffs, localized clashes between security forces and protestors remain possible. As such, a bolstered security deployment can be expected at the Polo Cientifico Tecnologico in Buenos Aires, as well as in front of CCTs nationwide to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic can be anticipated along the aforementioned locations throughout March 25. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Buenos Aires on March 25 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the aforementioned protest location due to the potential for localized unrest during the slated protests. Allot for travel disruptions near protest locations. 

Current Situation: On March 22, military officers amid patrol were reportedly ambushed by approximately 15 heavily armed criminals at approximately 15:00 (local time) in the Barranca Bermeja sector, Cascales canton, Sucumbios province. Subsequently, one soldier was killed and three others were injured.  

Assessments & Forecast: With the commander of the armed forces, Fernando Adatty, attributing the attack to Comandos de la Frontera (CdF) guerilla group, the incident reflects the threat of Colombia-based Segunda Marquetalia (SM)-linked CdF substructure of Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident group strategically expanding and operating transnationally across the porous and under-regulated borders of Colombia and Ecuador, to capture key drug trafficking routes. Moreover, FARC dissidents’ presence is further buttressed by the February 14 clashes between the Ecuadorian military and an armed group in Alto Punino, Orellana, where a Colombian national was killed and FARC dissidents’ uniform was found. Given Adatty’s statements on increased military operations in Sucumbios, as per March 23 reports, similar armed confrontations and ambushes between military officers and guerilla group members will occur intermittently along rural border areas of Carchi, Sucumbios, Orellana, Imbabura, and Putumayo going forward. 

Current Situation: Authorities extended the ongoing curfew in Ouest Department, including in Port-au-Prince (PauP) from 19:00-06:00 (local time) until March 26. Between March 18-22, at least 35 people were killed amid armed clashes between gangs, civilians and the police across Petion-Ville, south PauP. Separately, on March 21, criminals reportedly attempted to attack the National Palace in PauP. 

Assessments & Forecast: The insecurity in Petion-Ville is likely in retaliation to the killing of Delmas 95 gang leader Ernst Julme alias Ti Greg on March 21. Despite the near completion of the Transitional Presidential Council, which will take over presidential powers ahead of future elections, per March 23 reports, pillage of residences, gang clashes, and resurgence of Bwa Kale, the civilian vigilante movement, will continue unabated. The security landscape will likely remain at similar levels particularly in south PauP, including along the Pan-American highway, Delmas 95, Route des Freres, and Petion-Ville.  With over 33,000 fleeing PauP in the last two weeks and 4.97 million people reportedly facing extreme food insecurity, lack of access to basic resources and internal population displacement will persist, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis nationwide. 

Current Situation: On March 22, Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina Garcia and Chinese ambassador Yu Bo signed a bilateral cooperation agreement in Tegucigalpa, committing approximately 275 million USD to boost infrastructure and education establishments in Honduras. 

Assessments & Forecast: The signing of the agreement reflects the improved Beijing-Tegucigalpa bilateral relations, following Honduras’ termination of ties with Taiwan, which is not recognized by China, and recognizing the ‘One China’ policy on March 26, 2023. Further, the development reflects China’s increasing economic cooperation with Latin American countries amid attempts to increase its influence in the region, commonly referred to as “South-South cooperation”. This is supported by China having already established free trade agreements (FTAs) with Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru, and the establishing strategic partnerships with Nicaragua on December 20, 2023 and Uruguay on November 22, 2023. Increased Chinese investments, FTAs, and expanding partnership agreements are expected to follow in other countries across Latin America, as Beijing attempts to close the gap in its perceived rivalry with the USA, especially in the economic domain. 

Current Situation: On March 22, approximately 66 individuals were kidnapped in El Palmito, La Noria, Lomas De Magesterio, and Villa Bonita areas in Culiacan, Sinaloa. Armed suspects reportedly arrived aboard trucks and opened fire before kidnapping the individuals.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident highlights the persistent threat of kidnappings by criminal groups, especially Cartel De Sinaloa (CDS) which maintains a stronghold in Culiacan, usually targeting members of rival groups or public officials opposing criminal activities. This is evidenced by the kidnapping of an individual on March 17 and in the kidnapping of two city council officials on January 24. The latest incident highlights the deteriorating security situation in Culiacan since the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, the son of CDS leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, which caused the deaths of 10 soldiers and 19 CDS members during the arrest operation in Culiacan on January 5, 2023. With Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya’s deploying over 600 soldiers to Culiacan on March 22, coupled with 42 of them rescued as of March 23, security checkpoints and investigations have the potential to prompt travel disruptions in the near term. 

Current Situation: On March 23, Jamie Gonzalez Perez, a Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional (MORENA) party mayoral candidate of Acatzingo in Puebla, was shot dead by at least two assailants near a commercial establishment in El Trebol, Acatzingo, Puebla. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident underscores the elevated risk of politically motivated attacks targeting candidates and political officials, as buttressed by at least 40 electoral candidates killed during the 2023-2024 electoral period. With Perez being a MORENA candidate, it further suggests a potentially growing trend of targeted campaigns against MORENA representatives, likely in an effort to instill fear, as supported by four other MORENA candidates killed nationwide between January-March. Further, this reiterates the sustained levels of violence from fuel and cargo theft, and homicides across Acatzingo, likely exacerbated given that the municipality is part of the “Red Triangle” along with Tepeaca, Quecholac Palmar de Bravo, Tecamachalco, and Acajete, which witnesses the highest levels of violence statewide. Therefore, similar targeted shootings and intimidatory threats targeting political officials ahead of the June 2 nationwide general elections, will recur intermittently, particularly across Chiapas, Colima, Michoacan, State of Mexico, Veracruz, and Zacatecas. 

Current Situation: According to March 21 reports, 24 incidents of individuals vandalizing buses using rocks have been recorded on the Purple Corridor (SJL-San Isidro) route in Lima in 2024 so far. 17 incidents were recorded between March 1-20. Further, 23 of these incidents have reportedly taken place in Lima’s high-crime neighborhood of San Juan de Lurigancho (SJL). 

Assessments & Forecast: The incidents are most likely related to extortion of transportation sectors by local criminal groups, with police arresting three individuals on charges of extorting bus drivers in SJL on February 1. These incidents have plausibly exacerbated following the end of the State of Emergency (SoE) in SJL and San Martin de Porres (SMP) on January 19. Considering that most of these incidents occur during the morning hours or late-night hours, they are expected to remain mostly intimidatory in nature. Regardless of the targeted nature, there nevertheless remains the potential for spillover violence on bystanders in the vicinity as well as disruptions to travel. Continued extortion-related incidents also have the potential to prompt protests by transport workers, as witnessed on March 4.