Current Situation – A farmers’ protest will be held at the intersection between Rue de la Loi and Rue du Taciturne in Brussels from 10:30 (local time) on March 26. The demonstration is being organized by multiple farming federations, with organizers estimating around 300 tractors to participate. Similar demonstrations were held on February 1 and February 26, with the latter recording violent unrest as protesters engaged in arson and vandalism leading authorities to forcibly disperse them using tear gas. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the recent protests, the demonstration is likely to garner a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid hundreds. Given precedent, coupled with the tendency of farmers to resort to disruptive tactics, the protest carries a risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and security personnel, as well as with disgruntled commuters. Farmers are also likely to dump hay, food items, and other materials near the protest location. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely near Rue de la Loi. Significant disruptions to travel and business operations are anticipated near Rue de la Loi from the morning hours.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Brussels on March 26 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near Rue de la Loi due to the potential for unrest. Allot for associated disruptions to travel and remain cognizant of traffic measures and road diversions announced by authorities. 

Current Situation– On March 25, events will be held nationwide to celebrate Greek Independence Day, including in Larnaca and Nicosia. In Nicosia, road closures are ongoing as of the afternoon hours (local time) due to a parade and other events. Details on traffic restrictions and public transportation detours are available here. In Larnaca, similar restrictions are ongoing due to events, with details available here. All the businesses are closed throughout the day.  

Assessments & Forecast – The events in Larnaca and Nicosia are expected to attract turnouts in high thousands each. Additional parades and ceremonies are expected nationwide. Events are likely to transpire peacefully and without instances of unrest. A bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed to monitor proceedings. Traffic disruptions are expected to persist in both cities and nationwide, through the early morning hours of March 26. 

Recommendation- Those operating or residing in Cyprus on March 25-26 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel due to ongoing celebratory events.  

Current Situation – On March 26, retirees will hold protests nationwide. In Paris, a protest will be held in front of the Ministere de l’Economie et des Finances building, Rue de Bercy at 14:00 (local time). The protests call for increased purchasing power by increasing salaries. It calls for a 10 percent increase in pensions, ensuring that pensions are not below minimum wage. The protest has been organized by nine major unions. Additional details can be found here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given precedent, the protest in Paris will likely gather a turnout ranging in the mid to high hundreds. Meanwhile, protests in other cities will gather turnouts in the mid-dozens to the mid-hundreds each. Given precedent, the protest in Paris carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and authorities. However, this is unlikely to escalate into widespread unrest. In the event of escalating unrest, authorities are likely to deploy forceful crowd control measures such as conducting arrests. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of Rue de Bercy from the afternoon hours onwards.  

Recommendations –Those operating or residing in France, including in Paris, on March 26 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of all protest locations due to the latent potential for unrest. Allot for travel disruptions

Current Situation – On March 25, the anti-government Team Menschenrechte protest group will stage a protest march in Nuremberg, Bavaria state, between 18:30 to 20:30 (local time) beginning at Hallplatz. Demonstrators will march through multiple streets in the downtown area. Police have released a statement regarding road closures, with details on affected streets, as well as the protest route, available here (in German). The group has referenced recent farmers protests in the protest call, and was also involved in anti-lockdown protests during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on social media traction, the march is likely to attract a turnout ranging from the high dozens to low hundreds. While the protest is likely to be peaceful, a bolstered security presence is expected to monitor proceedings and divert traffic. Further, disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic should be anticipated in the vicinity of Hallplatz during the evening hours, as evidenced by the scheduled road closures.  

Recommendation: – Those operating or residing in Nuremberg on March 25 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Hallplatz and across downtown Nuremberg during the evening hours due to the protest. 

Current Situation – On March 25, Germany’s Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser warned about the escalating dangers posed by Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. Faeser highlighted Russia’s disinformation campaigns, espionage, and the manipulation of refugee movements to Western Europe. This comes amid reports of Russian hackers targeting German politicians, and reports of 100 Russian spies working under diplomatic cover in Austria who also spy on other nations. 

Assessment & Forecast – Faeser’s warning underscores Germany’s and Europe’s broader concerns over the persistent threat posed by Russian hybrid warfare tactics. Russia targeting individual German politicians reflects their strategy to gain long-term access to information that can be used to compromise European integration and support for Ukraine. This is evidenced by Russia leaking private German military conversations about sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine. As Russia continues to employ cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and espionage across the continent, European governments are likely to invest more in cybersecurity, expel diplomats and other Russian nationals from their countries, and increase military support for Ukraine. This support can potentially include backing NATO involvement in Ukraine, with Poland recently signaling being open to this possibility.  

Current Situation – On March 24, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced that the decision to raise France’s national alert level on the Vigiparte threat assessment system to the highest at “Emergency Attack Level” in response to the March 22 terrorist attack in Moscow, Russia. On January 15, the government lowered the alert level to “reinforced security for risk of attack,” the second highest level, having raised the alert level on October 13, 2023, following the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict  

Assessments & Forecast – The decision highlights the persistent threat of Islamist terrorism in France, evidenced by authorities also increasing the alert level following the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Further, that Attal referenced the Islamic State (IS) claiming responsibility for the Moscow attack for raising the alert level reflects growing concerns over IS capabilities in western Europe. This is especially relevant to France, given that IS has carried out multiple attacks in recent years, including the 2015 attacks in Paris and the 2017 Nice truck ramming. Similar developments are likely in other western European countries, including Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden.  

Current Situation – On March 24, Simon Haris became PM-in-waiting after becoming leader of the governing center-right Fine Gael party. This follows former PM Leo Varadkar unexpectedly resigning from his position as PM and leader of Fine Gael on March 19. Haris’ formal ascendance to PM will be subject to a vote in a parliamentary session on April 9. The opposition has called for an early election. Haris has said he aims to tackle issues affecting small businesses and immigration and aims to improve Fine Gael’s polling performance. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given that the government holds a majority in the parliament, Haris’ nomination as PM is highly likely to go through on April 9. However, considering that Fine Gael’s popularity has declined consistently since 2021, he is unlikely to successfully increase support for the party, given his short term and growing support for the left-wing Republican Sinn Fein party. Further, this change in leadership may even exacerbate Fine Gael’s decline as the electorate may perceive Varadkar’s sudden and unexpected resignation as a sign of political instability, with opposition parties liable to capitalize on this. 

Current Situation – On March 23, a woman was banned from Arnhem for announcing her intention to tear a Quran. This follows a six-month ban on Edwin Wagensveld, leader of the anti-Islamic group Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West (PEGIDA Netherlands) for announcing his intent to stage a Quran burning in Arnhem on March 23. In response, Wagensveld vowed to burn the Quran despite the ban. The bans were issued due to concerns over Quran desecration inciting violence, following riots in Arnhem in January.  

Assessments & Forecast – The bans highlight attempts to limit unrest from Muslim populations, as witnessed in Arnhem in January and in Sweden in 2022 and 2023. Further, the bans were likely imposed to limit calls for attacks by Islamist terrorist groups, given precedent. That Sweden continues to feature as a priority target in recent foiled attack plots citing the Quran burning incidents also supports this. With that, authorities are likely to continue imposing bans and restrictions on such protests in the coming months. However, evidenced by Wagensveld’s statement, Quran desecration protests are still likely, especially given heightened anti-immigrant sentiments in the Netherlands.  

Current Situation – On March 25, Russia’s Foreign Ministry questioned assertions by the USA regarding the Islamic State’s (IS) responsibility for the attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow. Separately, Russian media disseminated a deep fake video of a Ukrainian security official alleging that Ukraine was responsible. One of the attackers has been confirmed to be of Tajik background, with multiple incidents of violence and discrimination against individuals from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and other Central Asian backgrounds recorded nationwide.  

Assessment & Forecast – Russia’s skepticism regarding IS involvement and its attempt to shift blame to Ukraine is indicative of the Kremlin’s strategy to manipulate public opinion and divert attention from the threat of terrorism, attempting to rally support for its military actions in Ukraine. The escalation of xenophobic incidents targeting individuals from Central Asia within Russia underscores increased ethnic tensions. Heightened animosity towards Tajik and other Central Asian nationals is likely to increase the risk of dissent and IS recruitment from this population, exacerbating the threat of terrorism. Based on precedent, the government is expected to intensify efforts to consolidate power, further limiting civil liberties.