24
Mar 2024
10:49 UTC
Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): Large-scale airstrikes target Kyiv, Lviv during morning hours (local time) on March 24; heightened risk of further barrages in coming days
Current Situation
- On March 24, Russia conducted air strikes against Kyiv and Lviv during the early morning hours (local time). Ukraine’s air force said it destroyed 18 of 29 missiles and 25 of 28 Shaheed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
- Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, stated that at least a dozen missiles had been destroyed over Kyiv and its vicinity. No casualties or major damage have been reported.
- Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, stated that at least a dozen missiles had been destroyed over Kyiv and its vicinity. No casualties or major damage have been reported.
- In Lviv, Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said some 20 missiles and seven UAVs were launched against the broader Lviv region targeting critical infrastructure. The city itself had not been hit.
- Electricity in Kyiv and Lviv was temporarily disrupted due to the airstrikes.
- In Lviv, Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said some 20 missiles and seven UAVs were launched against the broader Lviv region targeting critical infrastructure. The city itself had not been hit.
- Electricity in Kyiv and Lviv was temporarily disrupted due to the airstrikes.
- Poland said one of the missiles briefly violated its airspace. The armed forces reported that the missile entered Polish airspace near Oserdow for 39 seconds and traveled about two kilometers into Polish territory. Polish aircraft had been activated during the attack.
- Poland said one of the missiles briefly violated its airspace. The armed forces reported that the missile entered Polish airspace near Oserdow for 39 seconds and traveled about two kilometers into Polish territory. Polish aircraft had been activated during the attack.
- Separately, Russian forces reportedly shot down ten Ukranian missiles over the port of Sevastopol in Crimea. One building and a gas line were damaged, while one woman was injured.
- Separately, Russian forces reportedly shot down ten Ukranian missiles over the port of Sevastopol in Crimea. One building and a gas line were damaged, while one woman was injured.
Assessments & Forecast
- The Russian airstrikes on March 24 highlight continued attempts to overload Ukrainian air defense systems, given the number of UAVs and missiles. Moreover, considering that Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would “punish” Ukraine for alleged UAV attacks on Belgorod and Moscow and border incursions into Russia on March 15-17, the barrages are likely in retaliation. This is further supported by similar barrages in recent days, including on Kyiv on March 21.
- Moreover, given internal concerns over domestic security within Russia following the terrorist attack in Moscow, the airstrikes suggest the Kremlin is attempting to shift focus from allegations of security lapses. The fact that Putin has already accused Ukraine of aiding and abetting the militants in Moscow also supports this. FORECAST: Russia is expected to continue launching largescale barrages in the coming days, including on western Ukraine. While previous strikes have targeted military targets, barrages are expected to also target critical infrastructure and civilian areas – as evidenced by the air strikes on March 21 and 24.
- Moreover, the strike on Sevastopol is in line with Ukraine’s strategy to increase assaults on the Black Sea region throughout 2024 in order to disrupt Russian operations. This is especially so, given that Russia uses the region to launch attacks on Ukraine. FORECAST: Kyiv is expected to continue targeting Crimea, especially ports and energy infrastructure, in the near to medium term, with aerial attacks on border regions also expected.
- Separately, the development in Poland reiterates the continued threat of stray missiles entering the airspace of NATO members. Indeed, on December 29, 2023, another stray Russian missile entered Polish airspace for three minutes. Additionally, in November 2022, two people were killed by debris from a Ukrainian defense missile in a Polish town on the border with Ukraine.
- While Russia is unlikely to launch missiles against a NATO member state, the incident highlights the risk of conflict escalation due to misfires, as supported by Poland’s activating aircraft. Bilateral tensions between Moscow and Warsaw will remain elevated, with the former unlikely to offer a response regarding the missile. Diplomatic measures are likely on both sides.
Recommendations
- Avoid all travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing hostilities.
- Those continuing to operate in the North and West of Ukraine are advised to adhere to air raid sirens over the coming hours due to the heightened threat of missile and UAV attacks by Russian forces.
- Those operating in the East, South, and Center of Ukraine are advised to minimize outdoor travel and avoid inter-city travel due to the increase in artillery fire and airstrikes.
- Avoid all travel to Crimea due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for sporadic attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure facilities.
- Identify the nearest shelter, which may be a Metro station, and proceed towards it when air sirens are sounded. Prepare emergency kits of food, water, medicine, and clothing in case needed.
- Considering the heightened risk of unpredictable power outages, take mitigatory measures, such as confirming that business locations have working generators, sufficient access to fuel for longer periods, and access to several flashlights. Keep necessary electronics constantly charged.
- For more information on the security situation and assistance please contact [email protected]
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Extreme
AFFECTED AREA
Ukraine
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation
- On March 24, Russia conducted air strikes against Kyiv and Lviv during the early morning hours (local time). Ukraine’s air force said it destroyed 18 of 29 missiles and 25 of 28 Shaheed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
- Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, stated that at least a dozen missiles had been destroyed over Kyiv and its vicinity. No casualties or major damage have been reported.
- Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, stated that at least a dozen missiles had been destroyed over Kyiv and its vicinity. No casualties or major damage have been reported.
- In Lviv, Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said some 20 missiles and seven UAVs were launched against the broader Lviv region targeting critical infrastructure. The city itself had not been hit.
- Electricity in Kyiv and Lviv was temporarily disrupted due to the airstrikes.
- In Lviv, Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said some 20 missiles and seven UAVs were launched against the broader Lviv region targeting critical infrastructure. The city itself had not been hit.
- Electricity in Kyiv and Lviv was temporarily disrupted due to the airstrikes.
- Poland said one of the missiles briefly violated its airspace. The armed forces reported that the missile entered Polish airspace near Oserdow for 39 seconds and traveled about two kilometers into Polish territory. Polish aircraft had been activated during the attack.
- Poland said one of the missiles briefly violated its airspace. The armed forces reported that the missile entered Polish airspace near Oserdow for 39 seconds and traveled about two kilometers into Polish territory. Polish aircraft had been activated during the attack.
- Separately, Russian forces reportedly shot down ten Ukranian missiles over the port of Sevastopol in Crimea. One building and a gas line were damaged, while one woman was injured.
- Separately, Russian forces reportedly shot down ten Ukranian missiles over the port of Sevastopol in Crimea. One building and a gas line were damaged, while one woman was injured.
Assessments & Forecast
- The Russian airstrikes on March 24 highlight continued attempts to overload Ukrainian air defense systems, given the number of UAVs and missiles. Moreover, considering that Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would “punish” Ukraine for alleged UAV attacks on Belgorod and Moscow and border incursions into Russia on March 15-17, the barrages are likely in retaliation. This is further supported by similar barrages in recent days, including on Kyiv on March 21.
- Moreover, given internal concerns over domestic security within Russia following the terrorist attack in Moscow, the airstrikes suggest the Kremlin is attempting to shift focus from allegations of security lapses. The fact that Putin has already accused Ukraine of aiding and abetting the militants in Moscow also supports this. FORECAST: Russia is expected to continue launching largescale barrages in the coming days, including on western Ukraine. While previous strikes have targeted military targets, barrages are expected to also target critical infrastructure and civilian areas – as evidenced by the air strikes on March 21 and 24.
- Moreover, the strike on Sevastopol is in line with Ukraine’s strategy to increase assaults on the Black Sea region throughout 2024 in order to disrupt Russian operations. This is especially so, given that Russia uses the region to launch attacks on Ukraine. FORECAST: Kyiv is expected to continue targeting Crimea, especially ports and energy infrastructure, in the near to medium term, with aerial attacks on border regions also expected.
- Separately, the development in Poland reiterates the continued threat of stray missiles entering the airspace of NATO members. Indeed, on December 29, 2023, another stray Russian missile entered Polish airspace for three minutes. Additionally, in November 2022, two people were killed by debris from a Ukrainian defense missile in a Polish town on the border with Ukraine.
- While Russia is unlikely to launch missiles against a NATO member state, the incident highlights the risk of conflict escalation due to misfires, as supported by Poland’s activating aircraft. Bilateral tensions between Moscow and Warsaw will remain elevated, with the former unlikely to offer a response regarding the missile. Diplomatic measures are likely on both sides.
Recommendations
- Avoid all travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing hostilities.
- Those continuing to operate in the North and West of Ukraine are advised to adhere to air raid sirens over the coming hours due to the heightened threat of missile and UAV attacks by Russian forces.
- Those operating in the East, South, and Center of Ukraine are advised to minimize outdoor travel and avoid inter-city travel due to the increase in artillery fire and airstrikes.
- Avoid all travel to Crimea due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for sporadic attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure facilities.
- Identify the nearest shelter, which may be a Metro station, and proceed towards it when air sirens are sounded. Prepare emergency kits of food, water, medicine, and clothing in case needed.
- Considering the heightened risk of unpredictable power outages, take mitigatory measures, such as confirming that business locations have working generators, sufficient access to fuel for longer periods, and access to several flashlights. Keep necessary electronics constantly charged.
- For more information on the security situation and assistance please contact [email protected]
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Extreme
AFFECTED AREA
Ukraine
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Related Reports
Ukraine
-
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): All clear issued post air raid sirens in southern, eastern regions as of morning hours (local time) on April 28; remain cognizant of updates -
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): Explosions reported in multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Odesa, following air raid sirens as of morning hours (local time) on April 17; shelter in place
-
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): Explosions reported in multiple regions, including Kyiv, following air raid sirens, as of morning hours (local time) on March 22; shelter in place
-
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): Explosions reported in Kyiv city following air raid sirens, as of early morning hours (local time) on March 21; shelter in place
Related Reports
Ukraine
-
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): All clear issued post air raid sirens in southern, eastern regions as of morning hours (local time) on April 28; remain cognizant of updates
-
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): Explosions reported in multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Odesa, following air raid sirens as of morning hours (local time) on April 17; shelter in place
-
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): Explosions reported in multiple regions, including Kyiv, following air raid sirens, as of morning hours (local time) on March 22; shelter in place
-
Air StrikeUkraine Alert (UPDATE): Explosions reported in Kyiv city following air raid sirens, as of early morning hours (local time) on March 21; shelter in place