This report reviews notable events this week in the Americas. This includes a robbery in the Consulate of Portugal in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; a large police operation targeting an armed gang in Minas Gerais, Brazil; the extension of the State of Emergency in the Macrozona Sur of Chile; the release of 180 army personnel taken hostage by coca cultivators in Norte de Santander, Colombia; an explosion at an oil pipeline in Puebla, Mexico; unrest targeting mining companies in central and southern Peru; and a bolstered police deployment in northern Virginia and Washington, DC in the USA following a threat of attacks over the Halloween weekend. 

Notable Developments: 

• Armed individuals broke into the Consulate of Portugal and official residence of the Consul General of Portugal in Rio de Janeiro Luis Gaspar da Silva, located in the southern neighborhood of Botafogo at 02:00 (local time) on October 30.   
• The assailants held the Consul, his family, and the security guards hostage for approximately 50 minutes and stole jewelry, computers, and other valuable personal belongings. All of them were unharmed. The suspects fled and an investigation is ongoing as of writing.   
• According to unconfirmed local sources, the assailants did not know that the consulate was operating there, believing that it was just a mansion.    

ANALYSIS: The incident highlights the elevated threat of armed robberies targeting foreign diplomats and their residences due to the resultant expectations of wealth, particularly in affluent neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro such as Botafogo. Since the assault was conducted with a high level of coordination and planning, with the suspects managing to circumnavigate surveillance and hold security guards hostage, a local criminal group specialized in robberies was likely behind it. Given that large-scale robberies are often carried out by heavily-armed individuals, these robberies pose a heightened threat to the residents and bystanders and carry a potential for violent escalation in the event of non-compliance. Considering that nationwide crime rates have increased since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, local criminal gangs are expected to continue targeting wealthy individuals, including diplomats, through robberies or kidnappings in order to make up for lost financial revenues during the pandemic. 

Notable Developments: 

• 26 individuals were killed in a police operation in Varginha, Minas Gerais state on October 31. Security forces engaged in a shootout with the suspects on two farms in the city. 
• Authorities stated that the gang had rifles, machine guns, explosives, bulletproof vests, and stolen vehicles and were preparing to carry out bank robberies in the region.  
• Additionally, officials asserted that the operation was the “biggest ever” targeting the “novo cangaco” (new struggle) criminal movement. 

ANALYSIS: The operation is notable given the preemptive nature in which it was conducted as well as the scale of violence witnessed. Moreover, the incident highlights the ongoing threat of heavily-armed gangs conducting bank robberies and destroying property in small urban centers across southern Brazil. Given recent precedent of armed attacks in Brazil, police reports indicating an imminent violent large-scale robbery are highly credible. Owing to the proliferation of armed gangs in south and south-eastern Brazil, further bank raids carried out by gangs loosely affiliated with the “novo cangaco” movement are likely in the medium term. Precedent indicates that further large heists are more likely in mid-sized cities without a major police presence, rather than focusing on the city centers of Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo. Moreover, considering that previous large-scale robberies targeting banks have been carried out by multiple heavily-armed individuals who have taken hostages and used bystanders as human shields, the threat to employees, customers, and other passersby in the immediate vicinity of the facilities remains high. 

Notable Developments: 

• According to October 27 reports, President Sebastian Pinera extended the State of Emergency (SoE) across the conflict-ridden Macrozona Sur region until November 11. The SoE was introduced on October 13 in the Biobio and La Araucania regions of Macrozona Sur due to a surge in attacks by armed Mapuche groups.  
• Violence has reportedly reduced by 43 percent following the imposition of the SoE. More than 30 arrests have been made in the region since October 13. 

ANALYSIS: Given that attacks by armed Mapuche groups continued despite the militarization since October 13, the SoE extension is unlikely to significantly improve the overall security landscape of the region in the near term. While violence may decrease in the coming weeks as arrests continue to be made, high levels of insecurity in the region are liable to persist going forward. Furthermore, the extension is likely to be perceived by armed Mapuche elements as the intensification of the crackdown, as evidenced by militant Mapuche group Coordinadora Arauco-Malleco’s (CAM) leader Hector Llaitul’s statements accusing the government of inciting violence. Heightened sentiments are liable to escalate tensions among the Mapuche community and prompt small yet disruptive protests along key thoroughfares in the Macrozona Sur. Additionally, private properties and commercial entities, including timber and mining industries, are likely to be targeted in arson attacks moving forward. As the bolstered security deployment persists, the potential for attacks targeting security personnel and government officials remains elevated.  

Notable Developments: 

• On October 28, coca cultivators released 180 Ejercito Nacional de Colombia (ENC) army personnel held hostage in Tibu, Norte de Santander. Over 500 residents of the Chiquinquira village held ENC personnel hostage at a rural school using sticks and machetes since October 26, where the army was carrying out eradication efforts of illicit crops in the area.   
• Separately, President Ivan Duque and Defense Minister Diego Molano denounced the incident as a “kidnapping” attempt, while the ENC alleged that cultivators’ associations planned the kidnapping. Unconfirmed reports also indicate the alleged involvement of the Ejercito Liberacion Nacional (ELN) guerrilla group in the incident. 

ANALYSIS: The incident is notable given the number of soldiers held hostage. The above is also reflective of the entrenched discontent among coca cultivators towards the ENC and the government, with local coca cultivators often opposing eradication efforts on grounds that the government has failed to create alternative sources of revenue and socio-economic security, increasing reliance on guerrilla groups. Opposition to the eradication efforts generally manifests through protests or similar sieges during the ENC’s efforts, with the trend expected to continue as the economic strain on livelihoods worsened through the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that eradication programs will continue, the potential for resistance efforts to escalate into wider clashes remains elevated. The above is likely to be witnessed largely in volatile areas along the north-eastern border of Colombia. Further, the potential of spillover violence from armed confrontations and attacks by guerrilla groups affecting those operating in the area also remains.

Notable Developments: 

• On October 31, three explosions and subsequent fire were recorded at an oil pipeline owned by the PEMEX state oil company at the intersection of Gasoducto and Ferrocarril avenues in the San Pablo Xochimehuacan area of Puebla city. 
• The incident left at least 15 injured and led to one death. Nearly 1400 security and firefighting personnel were mobilized to the site. 
• Initial reports indicate that the explosion was caused by the clandestine siphoning off of oil from illegal outlets on the pipeline. 

ANALYSIS: The incident points to the growing physical threat posed by the illegal gas siphoning outlets placed by fuel thieves in Mexico, locally known as huachicoleros, with a similar 2019 accident in neighboring Hidalgo state leaving over 100 dead. This threat is especially heightened in the central states of Puebla, which acts a transit zone for 40 percent of the fuel distributed from Mexico City to the rest of the country, as well as Hidalgo and Guanajuato. In addition, while the criminal affiliations of the suspect are unknown as of writing, it is possible that he was part of a cartel or a dedicated fuel theft gang. As such, the involvement of cartels such as the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) and the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel (SRLC), which have turned to fuel theft to diversify revenue streams, cannot be ruled out. It is likely that a heavy police presence will be witnessed in the municipality until the fire is extinguished and the perpetrators are arrested. 

Notable Developments: 

• On October 31, the country’s largest mining company announced the suspension of its operations amid ongoing protests by the local community in Aquia, Ancash. Protesters have been demanding that the company withdraw from the territory, accusing it of illegal usurpation of their lands.  
• The suspension follows protesters’ blockades of roads leading to several mines over the past week. Additionally, violent protests against various mining companies were held in the Ayacucho region on October 29, with residents setting some of the companies’ facilities on fire, leaving 10 people injured. 

ANALYSIS: The sustained levels of unrest by the local community is reflective of the security threat posed to mining companies in central and southern Peru, with protesters hindering operations intermittently since July 2021. Given the government’s limited response to the conflict and pending negotiations with residents, disruptive protests and road blockades are liable to persist in the near term. While some protests may be peaceful, others carry the potential for escalating unrest in the form of vandalism and arson attacks targeting mining facilities. In the event of prolonged protests and unrest, other mining companies may decide to suspend their operations in the coming days or weeks. Moreover, concerns over the government’s policies regarding the mining sector, coupled with PM Mirtha Vasquez’s support for protesters are likely to erode investors’ confidence and potentially discourage foreign investment of mining and related industries moving forward. 

Notable Developments:

• Police increased their presence in major shopping malls, shopping centers, public thoroughfares, and transit hubs throughout northern Virginia and the Washington, DC, area over a ‘credible’ threat of a violent attack over the Halloween weekend. Security was also bolstered at the White House and other federal facilities in the area.  
• The security measures were announced ahead of Virginia’s gubernatorial elections, slated to take place on November 2.  
• On October 26, a Pentagon official warned that the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) could be able to “launch attacks on the West and its allies within as soon as six months”, and al-Qaeda could do so “within two years”. 

ANALYSIS: While no security incidents related to the threat were recorded over the weekend, it is likely that authorities increased security measures as a precautionary measure based on online activity by militant supporters. Given that Islamist activity, including radicalization and calls for attacks, are known to increase during holidays further supports this. Regardless, given that the alleged threat follows warnings by Pentagon officials of increasing capabilities of ISKP to carry out a potential attack in the USA within six months, local radicals are liable to be emboldened by the report to aggressively carry out radicalization activities within the USA, especially during elections. That said, the likelihood of a major attack being carried out in the near to medium term remains low. Nonetheless, security is likely to be heightened around holidays and major political events given the potential of lone-wolf incidents.  

• On October 28, the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) in Brazil acquitted President Jair Bolsonaro and Vice President Hamilton Mourao in a Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT)-filed lawsuit for allegedly spreading fake news on social media during the 2018 elections. 
• In Chile, 75 members of the right-wing Union Democrata Independiente (UDI) party announced their intent to withdraw support for the right-wing coalition Chile Vamos’ presidential candidate Sebastian Sichel on October 27. 
• The US Embassy in Haiti issued a Security Alert for Port-au-Prince regarding possible gang violence following reports of gangs planning to demonstration throughout the city on November 2. 
• Authorities in Mexico arrested the leader of Los Caballeros Templarios cartel Francisco Maldonado Bustos, alias ‘Don Jose’, in Mexico City on November 1. 
• In the USA, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved on October 29 the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use on minors aged between 5-11. 

• November 3: Independence Day in Panama 
• November 4: National Day of Community Service in Dominica, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago 
• November 5: Colon Day in Panama 
• November 6: Constitution Day in Dominican Republic 
• November 7: General Election in Nicaragua 
• November 8: Various groups to start indefinite strike in Bolivia