• According to a notice circulating on social media, pro-democracy activists have called for a nationwide shutdown under the “Kungahlwa Kwenille-Stage II” banner from August 15.
• The organizers have mandated that all businesses must close and senior citizens return to their homes at 14:00 (local time).
• They have also requested civilians that all children stay at home and to cease all vehicular movement at 17:00.
• This shutdown is taking place to demand the release of two pro-democracy parliamentarians, who were arrested on July 26 over their alleged involvement in perceived “terrorist” acts and flouting of COVID-19 regulations.

1. The call for a nationwide shutdown aligns with a recent uptick in pro-democracy protests after a relative lull in these demonstrations which had erupted in mid-June, devolved into civil unrest until the end of July, and led to the death of at least 40 civilians. In this context, this call for a nationwide shutdown reflects civil society organizations’ continued dissatisfaction with the government and attempt to revive the pro-democracy momentum in eSwatini. It is also to continue to engage local and international attention to pressure the government to implement democratic reforms and to release the pro-democracy protesters.
2. FORECAST: Given entrenched civilian grievances against the current government system, the organizers’ appeals are likely to be well-adhered to by the populace across the country with the potential of this shutdown negatively impacting the economy and leading to shortages of food and fuel if sustained for a longer period. That said, the nationwide shutdown might also be accompanied by spontaneous anti-government protests near prominent government buildings and public centers. Such protests are likely to witness participation in the low to mid-hundreds across larger cities such as Mbabane and Manzini, while gatherings in the mid to high dozens can be expected in other smaller towns.
3. FORECAST: Given the government’s heightened threat perception of pro-democracy protests, a heightened security presence can be expected in Mbabane and other prominent cities. The security forces can be expected to erect roadblocks and checkpoints to prevent spontaneous protests. They are liable to use forcible measures of dispersal such as tear gas, batons, and arbitrary arrests against potential protesters or unrest caused due to resource shortages. However, such a response is likely to incite civilian sentiments and could devolve into clashes with the security forces.

Those operating or residing in eSwatini on August 15 and over the coming days are advised to avoid all large gatherings or protest actions due to the heightened potential for security force crackdown while allotting for disruptions in light of the slated national shutdown.