Ivory Coast SITUATION UPDATE: FPI leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan arrested during overnight hours of November 6 as several opposition leaders charged with ‘terrorism', conspiracy | Security Portal

Nov 2020

11:32 UTC

Ivory Coast SITUATION UPDATE: FPI leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan arrested during overnight hours of November 6 as several opposition leaders charged with ‘terrorism’, conspiracy

Executive Summary

The government filed a range of legal charges against opposition leaders for the civil disobedience campaign and formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT), as expected. Their refraining from arresting Henri Konan Bedie was likely intentionally meant to maintain calm.
International response to the events has remained steady, recognizing the outcome of the elections and calling for dialogue. The lack of specific support for the opposition has meant that the CNT was unlikely to advance, which may have further deflated opposition supporters.
Former rebel leader and PM Guillaume Soro publicly called upon the military to mutiny, which is likely a sign of his waning influence as a true effort toward an insurrection could have been directly communicated to loyalists.
It appears unlikely that any substantive action will be taken by the security forces to participate in the crisis. Furthermore, the likelihood of significant demonstrations or unrest continues to decline as public mobilization has been relatively limited, particularly after election day.

Please be advised

Former PM Guillaume Soro made a statement on November 4 calling upon the defense and security forces to “disobey illegal orders” and “take action to restore our Constitution”.
Subsequently, sources indicate that several of Soro’s allies who are ex-rebels were arrested on November 4. They had allegedly received funds from Soro.
On November 6, the Public Prosecutor Richard Adou announced that several opposition leaders were being charged with a range of crimes in association with the calls for civil disobedience, a boycott, and the formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT). He described the CNT as an “act of sedition” and “conspiracy against the authority of the state”. He further noted that they would be charged with “terrorism” and participation in an “insurrectionary movement”.
At least a dozen people were arrested from Democratic Party of the Ivory Coast (PDCI) leader Henri Konan Bedie’s house on November 3, with officials including Bedie’s deputy, lawyer, and spokesperson remaining in custody.
Adou also stated that Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan was wanted, as was Union for Democracy and Peace in Ivory Coast (UDPCI) president Albert Toikeusse Mabri. He said that Bedie himself was not arrested due to his age and physical condition.
During the overnight hours of November 6, N’Guessan was arrested in Akoupe, Lagunes District while en route to his home. His lawyers as well as FPI officials have reportedly stated that they do not currently know his whereabouts and information on his detention has not been shared with them.
On social media on November 7, Bedie called for the “mobilization” to continue. This statement came after the police reportedly prevented 300 ethnic Baoule chiefs from meeting with Bedie at his residence in Abidjan.

Assessments & Forecast

This marks an escalation of political tensions in the aftermath of the announcement of the formation of the CNT even as normal activity has somewhat resumed in Abidjan and other parts of the country. The decision to charge opposition figures associated with the CNT was expected in that President Alassane Ouattara’s government was unlikely to accept the establishment of a parallel government without taking action. The arrest of a range of PDCI figures as well as N’Guessan demonstrates the seriousness of the situation, but the decision to not take Bedie into custody was likely an intentional move to avoid the public backlash to imprisoning him. Bedie retains a much larger degree of support as well as an international profile as a former president, and keeping him under functional house arrest bolsters the potential for the situation to remain calm.
It is possible that there will be some unrest in response to the arrests, particularly after N’Guessan was taken into custody. However, it increasingly appears that many Ivorians have limited interest in participating in an escalation. Despite the unrest on election day as well as sporadically over the following week, the announcement of the CNT and subsequent reaction by the government have not resulted in a significant public mobilization. This could be a result of some of the restrictions on activity of the opposition leaders, but it also appears that no other movements have emerged to organize action in support of the opposition. While it’s possible that supporters have been awaiting other developments such as the Constitutional Court’s validation of the results, at present, the likelihood of significant demonstration is continuing to dwindle.
This may also be a result of the lackluster international response to the CNT. The initial case that the opposition made to organize a transitional body was their claim that no legitimate election took place on October 31, which was essentially rejected by the African Union and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) who recognized the validity of its outcome. The international acceptance of the election leaves the CNT without any of the support that it needs, as the opposition otherwise has no leverage to force the Ouattara administration to take any action or make any concessions. On one hand, the absence of international support for the CNT could deflate opposition supporters who would want to demonstrate in support of their leaders. On the other hand, the lack of public mobilization by opposition supporters would mean that there would be little pressure on the international community to force Ouattara to engage in dialogue.
It is also highly notable that Guillaume Soro called upon the security forces to get involved in the crisis and essentially stage an insurrection over the past week. The fact that he made a public call to get the military to participate suggests either an intentional bluff or that his influence has waned. If Soro had wished to significantly threaten Ouattara or maintained the ability to do so, then he would have issued orders through ex-rebels loyal to him without making a public statement. The reported arrest of some of Soro’s old allies may be a sign that Soro had actually sought to organize the insurrection on the ground but lacks the necessary support to execute his plans, now a decade after the civil war. This suggests that Ouattara has been successful in reorganizing and reintegrating the military to eliminate this risk in general, and isolating Soro in particular.
The public effort to get soldiers to mutiny and involve themselves in the political crisis is also significant in that it is difficult to deny or reverse after the fact. This may alienate international mediators who are otherwise pushing for dialogue, as it will indicate that Soro or potentially the rest of the opposition are unwilling to make any kind of negotiated settlement. In tandem with the formation of the CNT, these developments suggest the opposition is using all of the options at their disposal to try to turn domestic and international favor against President Ouattara. However, thus far, their capacity to do this has appeared to be limited and the opposition is increasingly unlikely to see much success. Nonetheless, tensions are likely to remain high as the government takes steps to legally process N’Guessan and potentially conduct further arrests.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Ivory Coast in the coming days are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and to avoid the vicinity of all gatherings given the heightened political tensions and the potential for unrest.
MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Ivory Coast to facilitate contingency planning and ground support. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434.

Medium

Ivory Coast

High

Credible

Executive Summary

The government filed a range of legal charges against opposition leaders for the civil disobedience campaign and formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT), as expected. Their refraining from arresting Henri Konan Bedie was likely intentionally meant to maintain calm.
International response to the events has remained steady, recognizing the outcome of the elections and calling for dialogue. The lack of specific support for the opposition has meant that the CNT was unlikely to advance, which may have further deflated opposition supporters.
Former rebel leader and PM Guillaume Soro publicly called upon the military to mutiny, which is likely a sign of his waning influence as a true effort toward an insurrection could have been directly communicated to loyalists.
It appears unlikely that any substantive action will be taken by the security forces to participate in the crisis. Furthermore, the likelihood of significant demonstrations or unrest continues to decline as public mobilization has been relatively limited, particularly after election day.

Please be advised

Former PM Guillaume Soro made a statement on November 4 calling upon the defense and security forces to “disobey illegal orders” and “take action to restore our Constitution”.
Subsequently, sources indicate that several of Soro’s allies who are ex-rebels were arrested on November 4. They had allegedly received funds from Soro.
On November 6, the Public Prosecutor Richard Adou announced that several opposition leaders were being charged with a range of crimes in association with the calls for civil disobedience, a boycott, and the formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT). He described the CNT as an “act of sedition” and “conspiracy against the authority of the state”. He further noted that they would be charged with “terrorism” and participation in an “insurrectionary movement”.
At least a dozen people were arrested from Democratic Party of the Ivory Coast (PDCI) leader Henri Konan Bedie’s house on November 3, with officials including Bedie’s deputy, lawyer, and spokesperson remaining in custody.
Adou also stated that Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan was wanted, as was Union for Democracy and Peace in Ivory Coast (UDPCI) president Albert Toikeusse Mabri. He said that Bedie himself was not arrested due to his age and physical condition.
During the overnight hours of November 6, N’Guessan was arrested in Akoupe, Lagunes District while en route to his home. His lawyers as well as FPI officials have reportedly stated that they do not currently know his whereabouts and information on his detention has not been shared with them.
On social media on November 7, Bedie called for the “mobilization” to continue. This statement came after the police reportedly prevented 300 ethnic Baoule chiefs from meeting with Bedie at his residence in Abidjan.

Assessments & Forecast

This marks an escalation of political tensions in the aftermath of the announcement of the formation of the CNT even as normal activity has somewhat resumed in Abidjan and other parts of the country. The decision to charge opposition figures associated with the CNT was expected in that President Alassane Ouattara’s government was unlikely to accept the establishment of a parallel government without taking action. The arrest of a range of PDCI figures as well as N’Guessan demonstrates the seriousness of the situation, but the decision to not take Bedie into custody was likely an intentional move to avoid the public backlash to imprisoning him. Bedie retains a much larger degree of support as well as an international profile as a former president, and keeping him under functional house arrest bolsters the potential for the situation to remain calm.
It is possible that there will be some unrest in response to the arrests, particularly after N’Guessan was taken into custody. However, it increasingly appears that many Ivorians have limited interest in participating in an escalation. Despite the unrest on election day as well as sporadically over the following week, the announcement of the CNT and subsequent reaction by the government have not resulted in a significant public mobilization. This could be a result of some of the restrictions on activity of the opposition leaders, but it also appears that no other movements have emerged to organize action in support of the opposition. While it’s possible that supporters have been awaiting other developments such as the Constitutional Court’s validation of the results, at present, the likelihood of significant demonstration is continuing to dwindle.
This may also be a result of the lackluster international response to the CNT. The initial case that the opposition made to organize a transitional body was their claim that no legitimate election took place on October 31, which was essentially rejected by the African Union and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) who recognized the validity of its outcome. The international acceptance of the election leaves the CNT without any of the support that it needs, as the opposition otherwise has no leverage to force the Ouattara administration to take any action or make any concessions. On one hand, the absence of international support for the CNT could deflate opposition supporters who would want to demonstrate in support of their leaders. On the other hand, the lack of public mobilization by opposition supporters would mean that there would be little pressure on the international community to force Ouattara to engage in dialogue.
It is also highly notable that Guillaume Soro called upon the security forces to get involved in the crisis and essentially stage an insurrection over the past week. The fact that he made a public call to get the military to participate suggests either an intentional bluff or that his influence has waned. If Soro had wished to significantly threaten Ouattara or maintained the ability to do so, then he would have issued orders through ex-rebels loyal to him without making a public statement. The reported arrest of some of Soro’s old allies may be a sign that Soro had actually sought to organize the insurrection on the ground but lacks the necessary support to execute his plans, now a decade after the civil war. This suggests that Ouattara has been successful in reorganizing and reintegrating the military to eliminate this risk in general, and isolating Soro in particular.
The public effort to get soldiers to mutiny and involve themselves in the political crisis is also significant in that it is difficult to deny or reverse after the fact. This may alienate international mediators who are otherwise pushing for dialogue, as it will indicate that Soro or potentially the rest of the opposition are unwilling to make any kind of negotiated settlement. In tandem with the formation of the CNT, these developments suggest the opposition is using all of the options at their disposal to try to turn domestic and international favor against President Ouattara. However, thus far, their capacity to do this has appeared to be limited and the opposition is increasingly unlikely to see much success. Nonetheless, tensions are likely to remain high as the government takes steps to legally process N’Guessan and potentially conduct further arrests.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Ivory Coast in the coming days are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and to avoid the vicinity of all gatherings given the heightened political tensions and the potential for unrest.
MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Ivory Coast to facilitate contingency planning and ground support. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434.

Medium

Ivory Coast

High

Credible

Ivory Coast SITUATION UPDATE: FPI leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan arrested during overnight hours of November 6 as several opposition leaders charged with ‘terrorism’, conspiracy

Executive Summary

Please be advised

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

Executive Summary

Please be advised

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

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