Libya Alert: HoR’s withdrawal of confidence in GNU on September 21 unlikely to have major on-ground ramifications in short term

Sep 2021

12:26 UTC

Please be advised:

According to reports, the House of Representatives (HoR) has withdrawn its confidence in the unified interim government, known as the Government of National Unity (GNU), which was formed in February and is led by Prime Minister Abdel Hamid al-Dbeibah.
113 HoR members reportedly attended the session in Tobruk on September 21 that led to this development. 89 of these 113 members voted in favor of the no-confidence motion.
The High Council of State (HCS) has rejected the HoR’s withdrawal of confidence in the GNU as “null and void” on the basis that the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) of 2015 does not allow the HoR to pass such a motion.
The HoR reportedly used one of its internal bylaws/procedures for withdrawing confidence in the GNU.
The GNU will remain in power as the caretaker government of Libya until December 24, when national elections are expected to take place to vote in a permanent government.

Assessments & Forecast:

This development follows the submission of a request for a vote of no-confidence by 45 HoR members to the HoR Speaker, Aguila Saleh, on September 13. The fact that this request was initially only submitted by 45 members but was later supported by an additional 44 members makes this development notable as it is indicative of significant opposition to the GNU within the HoR. Although it is not entirely clear how this will impact the GNU’s ability to dispense its duties as caretaker government, reports indicate that the GNU will from now on have to function with reduced powers.
FORECAST: Regardless, this development will significantly diminish the GNU’s domestic legitimacy, which was largely derived from the HoR’s vote of confidence. This is because the GNU is not a directly elected government but chosen by a group of 72 members selected by the UN Special Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Meanwhile, the HoR is the last properly elected political body in existence in Libya. The HCS’s declaration that the HoR does not have such a power may to some extent provide the GNU with legitimacy. Overall, this development will have a longer term impact upon the political stability of Libya rather than a more short term impact upon the security situation in the country. It is unlikely to either prompt an increase in the threat of militancy or the outbreak of any major civil unrest or armed conflict in Libya in the coming days.

Recommendations:

It is advised to defer all travel to Tripoli at this time due to the current political instability and the risk of a broad deterioration of security conditions. Travel to Benghazi, Misrata, and Tobruk should be for essential purposes only, while adhering to all security precautions. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans.
Avoid all travel to Libya’s southern Fezzan Region due to the presence of armed criminal and militant networks. It is particularly advised to avoid all travel to the area extending from the Haruj Mountains to Tamanhint, Sebha, Ghadduwah, Taraghin, and Umm al-Aranib as this constitutes the Islamic State’s (IS) primary area of operations in Libya.
Avoid all travel to Libya’s border areas with Tunisia, Egypt, Chad, Niger, Sudan, and Algeria due to the risk of persistent violence and lawlessness in these regions.
Avoid the immediate vicinity of government buildings, police stations, media outlet offices, and political party and militia headquarters, given that these locales have been targeted by militias and militants.
Westerners operating in Libya are advised to maintain a low profile and exercise heightened vigilance in light of prevailing anti-Western sentiments and the underlying risk of attacks. Take precautions to mitigate the risk of being targeted for kidnapping. Routinely alter travel routes and refrain from divulging sensitive itinerary information to strangers.

Extreme

Nationwide; Libya

Medium

Credible

Please be advised:

According to reports, the House of Representatives (HoR) has withdrawn its confidence in the unified interim government, known as the Government of National Unity (GNU), which was formed in February and is led by Prime Minister Abdel Hamid al-Dbeibah.
113 HoR members reportedly attended the session in Tobruk on September 21 that led to this development. 89 of these 113 members voted in favor of the no-confidence motion.
The High Council of State (HCS) has rejected the HoR’s withdrawal of confidence in the GNU as “null and void” on the basis that the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) of 2015 does not allow the HoR to pass such a motion.
The HoR reportedly used one of its internal bylaws/procedures for withdrawing confidence in the GNU.
The GNU will remain in power as the caretaker government of Libya until December 24, when national elections are expected to take place to vote in a permanent government.

Assessments & Forecast:

This development follows the submission of a request for a vote of no-confidence by 45 HoR members to the HoR Speaker, Aguila Saleh, on September 13. The fact that this request was initially only submitted by 45 members but was later supported by an additional 44 members makes this development notable as it is indicative of significant opposition to the GNU within the HoR. Although it is not entirely clear how this will impact the GNU’s ability to dispense its duties as caretaker government, reports indicate that the GNU will from now on have to function with reduced powers.
FORECAST: Regardless, this development will significantly diminish the GNU’s domestic legitimacy, which was largely derived from the HoR’s vote of confidence. This is because the GNU is not a directly elected government but chosen by a group of 72 members selected by the UN Special Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Meanwhile, the HoR is the last properly elected political body in existence in Libya. The HCS’s declaration that the HoR does not have such a power may to some extent provide the GNU with legitimacy. Overall, this development will have a longer term impact upon the political stability of Libya rather than a more short term impact upon the security situation in the country. It is unlikely to either prompt an increase in the threat of militancy or the outbreak of any major civil unrest or armed conflict in Libya in the coming days.

Recommendations:

It is advised to defer all travel to Tripoli at this time due to the current political instability and the risk of a broad deterioration of security conditions. Travel to Benghazi, Misrata, and Tobruk should be for essential purposes only, while adhering to all security precautions. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans.
Avoid all travel to Libya’s southern Fezzan Region due to the presence of armed criminal and militant networks. It is particularly advised to avoid all travel to the area extending from the Haruj Mountains to Tamanhint, Sebha, Ghadduwah, Taraghin, and Umm al-Aranib as this constitutes the Islamic State’s (IS) primary area of operations in Libya.
Avoid all travel to Libya’s border areas with Tunisia, Egypt, Chad, Niger, Sudan, and Algeria due to the risk of persistent violence and lawlessness in these regions.
Avoid the immediate vicinity of government buildings, police stations, media outlet offices, and political party and militia headquarters, given that these locales have been targeted by militias and militants.
Westerners operating in Libya are advised to maintain a low profile and exercise heightened vigilance in light of prevailing anti-Western sentiments and the underlying risk of attacks. Take precautions to mitigate the risk of being targeted for kidnapping. Routinely alter travel routes and refrain from divulging sensitive itinerary information to strangers.

Extreme

Nationwide; Libya

Medium

Credible

Libya Alert: HoR’s withdrawal of confidence in GNU on September 21 unlikely to have major on-ground ramifications in short term

Please be advised:

Assessments & Forecast:

Recommendations:

Please be advised:

Assessments & Forecast:

Recommendations:

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