The following report reviews current events in the AFRICA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security.

• Cameroon: Hundreds flee Liwu la-Malale town in South West Region after suspected Anglophone separatists kill local chief; attacks to recur
• Ethiopia: PM Abiy Ahmed implicitly rejects calls for dialogue amid TPLF threats to retaliate against airstrikes on November 8; tensions to persist
• Kenya & Tanzania: Former Tanzanian MP, family arrested by Kenyan Police in Kajiado County on November 8; intimidation tactic
• Ivory Coast: Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan arrested during overnight hours of November 6; tensions to persist
• South Africa: DA condemns ‘economic terrorism’ after closure of foreign-owned shops in Durban, as per November 8 reports; to spark rifts

Congo: Government extends state of emergency until November 27; allot for disruptions, practice increased health precautions

According to an official notice published on social media platforms, the government extended the state of emergency for the eleventh for a period of 20 days, effective from November 7. Under this extension, Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire will remain under curfew hours from 23:00 to 05:00 (local time). Other measures remain in place, including the obligatory wearing of face masks in public places, the ban on public gatherings of more than 50 people, the continued closure of nightclubs and education institutions, and the limited operation of markets. Additionally, all passengers arriving in Congo by commercial flights are required to present a negative PCR test taken less than 72 hours before entering the country. However, this regulation does not apply to children under the age of 11. At the time of writing, Congo has reported 5,379 cases of COVID-19, with 3,887 recoveries and 92 deaths.

Those operating or residing in Congo over the coming weeks and months are advised to practice increased health precautions due to potential exposure to coronavirus and remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding restrictions, quarantines, and health procedures.

Sao Tome & Principe: Government reimposes ‘state of calamity’ on November 9; allot for disruptions, practice increased health precautions

Reports indicate that President Jorge Bom Jesus has announced the reimposition of the ‘state of calamity’ to respond to the evolving COVID-19 situation on November 9.No specific regulations have been introduced or reimposed with this decision as of writing, however, the wearing of face masks in public remains compulsory. All travelers are subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine in a private residence or hotel at the traveler’s expense. As of writing, Sao Tome and Principe has recorded 962 cases, 910 recoveries, and 16 deaths from the virus.

Those operating or residing in Sao Tome & Principe over the coming weeks and months are advised to practice increased health precautions due to potential exposure to coronavirus and remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding restrictions, quarantines, and health procedures.

Zambia: Stage three nationwide load shedding scheduled for November 10-17 amid filling of new KGL dam reservoir; allot for disruptions 

According to an official statement by the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO), the slated stage three nationwide load shedding will cause power outages for approximately eight to ten hours daily. Water is slated to be diverted from the Kafue Gorge Upper (KGU) Power Plant to fill the dam reservoir at the Kafue Gorge Lower (KGL) Power Plant in preparation for the dam’s commissioning. ZESCO notes that the extended period of load shedding is necessary due to the reduced generation at the KGU plant while the KGL project is ongoing. ZESCO called on customers to support the government’s efforts to finalize the new KGL dam reservoir to “mitigate the impact of the weather-induced power deficit in the country.”

Those operating or residing across Zambia on November 10-17 are advised to remain cognizant of power outages and allot for disruptions.

Cameroon: Hundreds flee Liwu la-Malale town in South West Region after suspected Anglophone separatists kill local chief; attacks to recur

Reports from November 8 indicate that armed men, suspected to be separatist fighters, targeted Liwu la-Malale’s traditional ruler, Molinga Francis Nangoh, in the evening hours of November 6. The assailants reportedly shot Nangoh and burned his residence before retreating. Security forces have reportedly been deployed to the area to investigate the incident and locate the perpetrators and authorities have called for villagers to return. 

This follows the kidnapping of the Archbishop emeritus of Douala and Fon Sehm Mbinglo II, the traditional leader of Nso in the North West Region, by suspected separatist fighters on November 5. Since 2016, Anglophone separatists have targeted traditional rulers who are perceived to be collaborating with the government and denying English-speaking residents of achieving political autonomy, which in turn caused many to flee in 2018. Now, with numerous traditional leaders returning to the Anglophone region under government protection to contest in the upcoming December 6 regional polls, these renewed attacks are likely intended to intimidate returnees and to reiterate separatists’ claim to the territory. Within this context, similar attacks will likely recur ahead of the polls.  

DRC: At least 15 killed in two ADF attacks in Beni Territory, North Kivu Province as reported on November 8; insecurity to persist

Reports indicate that one soldier and eight civilians were killed as suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) fighters ambushed an Armed Forces of DRC (FARDC) military camp, and a village in Kisima locality on November 7. The attackers reportedly came from Mwalika Valley via Virunga National Park. In a separate incident, suspected ADF fighters killed at least six people while another dozen are reportedly missing in a raid on Matadi village on November 8.

The recent attacks are notable given that both the incidents occurred within a 24-hour interval highlighting the prevailing insecurity in Beni Territory due to the entrenched presence of ADF forces. That said, given the relatively large distance between Kisima and Matadi, the attacks on the two locations are unlikely to have been coordinated and to this point the attacks were likely conducted by different ADF cells present around the respective localities, further indicating the presence of ADF camps extending across Beni Territory and North Kivu Province. Additionally, the recurring attacks also highlight FARDC’s inability to secure residential localities despite maintaining a relatively extensive military presence. 

Ethiopia: PM Abiy Ahmed implicitly rejects calls for dialogue amid TPLF threats to retaliate against airstrikes on November 8; tensions to persist

On November 8, PM Abiy Ahmed gave a speech in English presenting the case for the ongoing military offensive in Tigray Region further alleging that the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reallocated federal funds to build paramilitary forces in preparation for the current war. Abiy also announced sweeping changes within federal security institutions replacing the heads of the army, federal police, and the National Security Advisor. Reports further indicate federal military airstrikes targeting artillery and missile sites near Mekelle Airport on November 8, eliciting provocative responses from the TPLF.

Abiy’s speech is notable, indicating attempts to target an international audience likely intended to gather support for the federal government given the refusal to engage in negotiations to resolve outstanding issues. In this context, the security reshuffle is significant as it reflects the possibility of Abiy replacing the security leadership to increase the PM’s office direct control over the military operations. Furthermore, given that the TPLF has not demonstrated the capability to target airports and bases outside Tigray Region, the military’s aerial offense is likely to continue over the coming days.  

Ethiopia & Sudan: SAF seizes 95,000 rounds of ammunition in Quraishah, el-Gedaref State on November 7; heightened military alertness

Sources indicate that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) soldiers ambushed a caravan convoy based on prior intelligence concerning the smuggling of ammunition to Ethiopia. The soldiers also seized drugs along the smuggled ammunition.

This comes after el-Gedaref closed its border with Ethiopia’s Tigray Region on November 5 amid the military clashes between the federal forces and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and also shortly after the head of the Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, visited Addis Ababa. In light of the ongoing fighting in Tigray Region and amid a concern of possible spillover into Sudan, the SAF likely enhanced its presence along the border while also allocating greater intelligence resources, with the increased alertness of the forces facilitating such a seizure of arms smuggling. At the same time, there also remains the distant potential that the seizure may have been the result of cooperation between Sudanese and Ethiopian forces. As Sudan remains a hub for weapons smuggling in the region, the heightened military presence at the Ethiopian border area suggests that further smuggling attempts are expected to be foiled.

Ivory Coast: Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan arrested during overnight hours of November 6; tensions to persist

Reports on November 8 indicate that the authorities released a video to prove N’Guessan is in good health after rumors on social media alleged his death. Several other opposition leaders were also arrested over their call for civil disobedience and the formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT). They are expected to be charged with “terrorism” and participation in an “insurectory movement”. The Democratic Party of the Ivory Coast (PDCI) leader Henri Konan Bedie, whose residence is still surrounded by security forces, called for continued mobilization.

This marks an escalation of political tensions in the aftermath of the announcement of the formation of the CNT, and was expected given that President Ouattara’s government was unlikely to accept the establishment of a parallel government. Given that the CNT formation and the repeated calls for protests have not resulted in significant mobilization, the arrests are unlikely to trigger mass demonstrations, especially as the international stakeholders endorsed the election results and recognized Ouattara’s victory. However, the legal actions against arrested opponents and potential further arrests are poised to sustain the heightened tensions.

Kenya & Tanzania: Former Tanzanian MP, family arrested by Kenyan Police in Kajiado County on November 8; intimidation tactic

Reports indicate that Godbless Lema told the Tanzania border control officers he is crossing into Kenya for family reasons, however, Lema’s lawyer later stated that he was fleeing from persecution in Tanzania and that Lema was en route to the UN offices in Kenya. Reports further note that the Kenyan police launched the chase after Lema following a notice from the Tanzanian authorities.

Godbless Lema was one of the opposition Chadema leaders briefly arrested on November 2 by the Tanzanian police over their call for protests against President John Magufuli’s landslide victory in the presidential elections. Lema’s escape comes after Chadema’s presidential candidate Tundu Lissu requested a safe passage to Belgium on November 7. This demonstrates the growing perception of opposition leaders that remaining in Tanzania is increasingly dangerous, suggesting that Magufuli’s intimidation tactics remain successful. That Kenyan police cooperated with the Tanzanian authorities reflects close security cooperation on the ground as well as the Kenyan interest in maintaining good relations with Magufuli’s government. Ultimately, further attempts of opposition leaders to flee are expected in the near future.

South Africa: Foreign nationals, who held sit-in at UN offices in Cape Town, to be deported as reported on November 7; further unrest likely

Sources indicate that the South African Home Affairs Department started a process of deporting 20 foreign nationals, who had staged a sit-in outside the UN offices in Cape Town in late 2019. Sources further indicate that 12 additional foreigners refused to integrate into South Africa and instead demanded the UN relocate them to first world countries.

This comes one year after hundreds of refugees protested against the UN for failing to protect them amid rising xenophobic violence targetting mostly African nationals in September-October 2019, which erupted due to perceptions that foreign nationals disenfranchised locals of economic opportunities. That said, South African authorities likely began the deportations given that the worsening socio-economic conditions under the COVID-19 pandemic may further exacerbate such perceptions and trigger renewed unrest, especially as civil society activists have already held several protests under the #SouthAfricansFirst banner. However, given that the UN is unlikely to relocate these foreign nationals to first world countries amid the pandemic, they may renew their protests and may potentially trigger a relative uptick in xenophobic sentiment.

South Africa: DA condemns ‘economic terrorism’ after closure of foreign-owned shops in Durban, as per November 8 reports; to spark rifts

Reports indicate that uMkhonto weSizwe Military Veterans (MKMVA) members in KwaZulu-Natal Province targeted and forcibly closed businesses owned by foreign nationals in Durban’s commercial areas on November 3. The country’s Human Rights Commission and the eThekwini Municipality have also condemned the MKMVA’s efforts. Separately, a cadre within the ruling Africa National Congress (ANC) party has reportedly called on businesses and institutions across the country to prioritize the employment of citizens as a “national duty.”

These developments illustrate the growing debate across South Africa regarding foreign-owned property and businesses, their effect on the economy, and the well-being of South African citizens, which appears to have grown out of the rising xenophobic sentiments among citizens in recent years. While the ANC does not officially support the shutdown of foreign-owned businesses, with numerous party factions calling for the prioritization of citizens and advocating for nationalist ideals, party heavyweights such as President Cyril Ramaphosa could be influenced to dismiss this treatment of foreign nationals. Ultimately, this discourse and trend is likely to enhance existing divisions within the ANC and throughout the political class.  

November 11, 2020

• Angola: Independence Day

November 14, 2020

• Guinea-Bissau: Readjustment Movement Day
• Mauritius: Diwali

November 15, 2020

• Ivory Coast: National Peace Day

November 22, 2020

• Burkina Faso: General Elections