The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Americas

• Americas: Honduras extends restrictions as COVID-19 cases continue to rise regionwide on August 2; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates
• Chile: Four arrested as clashes, acts of vandalism reported at protests in Santiago on July 30; protests to persist in near term
• USA: 10 injured in shooting in Queens, New York City, NY on July 31; reiterates threat to bystanders amid uptick in violent crimes

Europe

• Bosnia & Herzegovina: Republika Srpska passes laws against Inzko genocide denial ban, per August 1 reports; PIC’s function to be challenged
• France & Germany: Severe unrest recorded at anti-lockdown protests in Berlin, Paris on July 31, August 1; violent protests to continue
• UK: London Underground railway workers to stage series of 24-hour strikes between August 3-27; reconfirm itineraries

Americas: Honduras extends restrictions as COVID-19 cases continue to rise regionwide on August 2; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

In Canada, authorities in Quebec eased COVID-19-related restrictions on August 1. As such, stadiums, concerts, and festivals can have up to 15,000 spectators outdoors and 7,500 indoors, while indoor and outdoor public gatherings, including houses of worship, amateur sporting events, and ceremony halls can have up to 500 people. Bars and restaurants are allowed to serve alcohol until 01:00 and close at 02:00. In Colombia, the period established by the Ministry of Education for schools to gradually return to face-to-face classes ended on August 1. Therefore, all schools nationwide are open as of writing. In Honduras, health officials have extended ongoing restrictions, including the curfew from 22:00-05:00, until August 8. In the USA, Broward County in Florida reinstated a mask mandate inside county buildings, parks, and at the county courthouse amid a rise in COVID-19 cases regionwide.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on August 2 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

Bolivia: Wildfire reported near G77 Avenue, south of Viru Viru Airport, Santa Cruz on August 1; allot for disruptions to travel

According to reports, wildfires consumed the grasslands near G77 Avenue, in Santa Cruz during the afternoon hours (local time) on August 1. The dense smoke from the wildfires affected the visibility levels for several commuters in the region, subsequently also causing temporary disruptions to air travel at Viru Viru International Airport (VVI), located in the vicinity. Authorities have requested reinforcements to contain the fires. The regional government of Santa Cruz has placed 24 municipalities on orange alert for forest fires. Although flight operations gradually resumed on August 1, the wildfires are reportedly active and are likely to cause further travel disruptions, including flight delays and cancellations at VVI on August 2.

Those intending to fly via VVI in Santa Cruz on August 2 and the coming days are advised to reconfirm their itineraries due to disruptions caused by the active wildfires. Remain abreast of authorities’ alerts on risks associated with the fires.

USA: Protest against Iranian government to be held at Union Square, Washington, DC, at 10:30 (local time) on August 2; allot for disruptions

The Organization of Iranian American Communities (OIAC) has called for a protest to hold Iran’s President-elect Ebrahim Raisi accountable for the 1988 executions of political prisoners and to demand his arrest on August 2. Protesters will gather at Union Square on the Capitol Grounds in Washington, DC from 10:30 (local time). Protests against Raisi have been held in Washington, DC, since the June presidential elections in Iran. Protesters have demonstrated in solidarity with ongoing anti-government protests in Iran.

Based on social media estimates, the protest is expected to draw a turnout ranging in the high-dozens to low-hundreds. The protest is expected to transpire without major incidents of unrest. However, security is likely to be bolstered in the vicinity of Union Square as a security precaution. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of Union Square from the morning hours.

Those operating or residing in Washington, DC, on August 2 are advised to allot for traffic disruptions in the vicinity of Union Square from the morning hours due to the slated protest.

Chile: Four arrested as clashes, acts of vandalism reported at protests in Santiago on July 30; protests to persist in near term

On July 30, acts of vandalism were reported at demonstrations in the Lastarria and Barrio Italia areas in Santiago. The protest was held after the Court of Justice of San Miguel revoked the preventive detention of a police officer accused of “unlawful coercion” against Fabiola Campillai, who was blinded during the 2019 protests. On July 30, access to the Baquedano metro station was closed following clashes between the demonstrators and police. Two bus stops in the Plaza Italia sector were also burned, prompting the arrest of four protestors.

The aforementioned protests are reflective of the elevated threat of spillover violence posed to residents in Santiago, especially in the market areas of Lastarria. Given that anti-government sentiments have persisted since the proposal of a national referendum in 2019, the above is likely to embolden the mobilizational capacity of the movement after the July 30 demonstrations. With the above, potentially violent demonstrations demanding the release of arrested protesters are expected in the near term in the capital.

Guatemala: Protests continue over dismissal of government official in Guatemala City on July 29; likely to intensify over coming days

On July 29, indigenous leaders, social groups, and student organizations called for nationwide protests demanding the resignation of President Alejandro Giammattei and Attorney General Maria Porras. The protests were announced following the dismissal of Juan Fransico Sandoval, a well-known anti-corruption prosecutor. Thousands gathered at multiple locations across the Guatemalan capital, and protesters blocked access to key locations in the city. Similar anti-corruption protests led to the removal of ex-President Otto Perez Molina from leadership in 2015.

Given the heightened sentiments over the controversial dismissal, protests are likely to intensify over the coming days, with violent clashes between law enforcement officers and protesters likely to be witnessed. The protests are also likely to cause widespread disruptions to multiple services including transport facilities and local businesses, given precedent. In addition, there remains the possibility of the decision being reversed, given the huge public backlash. The controversial dismissal of the government official may attract sanctions from the US government in light of the efforts by the administration to tackle corruption across South American countries.

Peru: President Castillo accused of non-compliance with transparency standards on August 1; opposition to raise Congressional challenges

On August 1, members of Peru’s Congress denounced the alleged constitutional violation citing President Pedro Castillo’s lack of compliance with transparency standards. Congress stated that the government must publish the registry of visits of the president and his official agenda. Castillo has been working from a house in the Brena district of Lima, instead of the Government Palace, since taking office. Opposition lawmakers also pointed out that Castillo has been making cabinet appointments and signing regulations outside of the legally established headquarters.

Given that Castillo’s lack of compliance with transparency standards violates constitutional norms, opposition parties are likely to demand the nullification of the President’s recent cabinet appointments and decisions. The development is likely to prompt stiff resistance by opposition parties in Congress ahead of the approval of Castillo’s cabinet members, particularly his hardline left-wing PM candidate Guido Bellido. Additionally, the move to not disclose the president’s official agenda is notable, given that the publicly available data in recent years has been used for investigations against former presidents, including Martin Vizcarra and Alan Garcia.

USA: 10 injured in shooting in Queens, New York City, NY on July 31; reiterates threat to bystanders amid uptick in violent crimes

On July 31, 10 people were injured in the North Corona neighborhood of Queens, New York City, NY, after two masked assailants reportedly fired at a large crowd before fleeing the scene on scooters along with two other men. Three of the victims were known members of the Trinitario gang, while seven other victims were bystanders. On July 6, Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a gun violence emergency in New York State after 51 shootings were recorded over the July 4 holiday weekend.

That two assailants arrived on the scene armed while two accomplices were waiting on getaway scooters in the vicinity of the incident suggests that the shooting was premeditated. As three of the victims were known Trinitarios gang members, they were likely the intended targets of the shooting. That the shooting occurred in the North Corona neighborhood, where gun violence is relatively rare, suggests that gang-related violence is spreading into new borough neighborhoods, possibly amid turf wars between local gangs. Thus, the incident reiterates the threat to bystanders, which is likely to remain elevated in the near-to-medium term.

Europe: Wildfires recorded in Greece, southern Italy, as inclement weather alerts issued regionwide on August 2; remain cognizant of updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather agency, has issued red and orange alerts, the highest and second-highest in a four-tier system, for multiple countries regionwide through August 6. In Greece, red alerts are in effect in most regions for wildfires and extreme temperatures through at least August 3, including in Central Macedonia, the Ionian Islands, and South Aegean. In Rhodes, 56 wildfires are ongoing, prompting emergency evacuations and power outages. Heat warnings are in effect nationwide through at least August 6. In Italy, wildfires continue in Sicily. Consequently, red alerts for extreme temperatures have been issued in Basilicata, Calabria, Puglia, and Sicily, while orange alerts have been issued in Liguria. These are in effect through August 3. Orange alerts for extreme temperatures are also in effect in Romania and parts of Serbia, while red alerts are in effect in Bulgaria through August 3. Orange alerts for heavy rainfall have also been issued for northern Poland and most of Latvia, through August 3.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Europe on August 2 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and services.

UK: London Underground railway workers to stage series of 24-hour strikes between August 3-27; reconfirm itineraries

According to reports, the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT) has called for the employees of the London Underground to hold a series of 24-hour strikes in London between August 3-27. The strikes will last from 12:00 (local time) on August 3 until 11:59 on August 4; 12:00 on August 5 until 11:59 on August 6; 12:00 on August 24 until 11:59 on August 25; and from 12:00 on August 26 until 11:59 on August 27. Other forms of public transportation will continue normal operations. The labor action is organized against the proposed restructuring of the separate pay grade for night drivers. Further information can be found here.

Significant disruptions to underground rail services, including delays and cancellations, are likely to be recorded on the slated strike days. Overcrowding is expected on other available trains, as well as increased demand for alternative modes of transport, including buses, rental vehicles and other public transport. Additionally, traffic will likely be heavier than usual in London as more commuters may resort to using personal vehicles rather than public transport.

Those operating or residing in London between August 3-27 are advised to reconfirm itineraries and allot for disruptions to travel arising from the above-slated labor action.

Bosnia & Herzegovina: Republika Srpska passes laws against Inzko genocide denial ban, per August 1 reports; PIC’s function to be challenged

According to August 1 reports, Republika Srpska approved two laws against the changes imposed by former UN High Representative for Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH), Valentin Inzko on the genocide denial ban, during a parliament session on July 30. The laws include a ‘non-implementation’ of Inzko’s decision to impose a five-year prison term for genocide denial. The parliament also approved a 15-year prison term for individuals deemed to be “violating the reputation of Republika Srpska”. Meanwhile, on August 1, Germany’s Christian Schmidt was appointed as the new UN Envoy for BiH.

In light of the explicit denial of Inzko’s decision, Bosnian Serb leaders are likely to challenge the functioning of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), the international body that oversees the implementation of the 1995 Dayton Agreement. Given the recent escalation of tensions between nationalist leaders including Milorad Dodik and the PIC, the former is likely to challenge the legitimacy of the newly appointed UN Envoy in the near term. As such, the above is likely to heighten ethnic tensions between the Bosnian, Serb, and Croat populations in BiH moving forward.

France & Germany: Severe unrest recorded at anti-lockdown protests in Berlin, Paris on July 31, August 1; violent protests to continue

Widespread unrest and violent clashes between protesters and police officials were recorded at recent anti-lockdown demonstrations in Berlin, Germany and Paris, France. On July 31, several thousand people marched in Paris against the introduction of a mandatory health pass for entry to a wide array of public venues, set to begin August 9. Police fired tear gas following clashes with protesters. On August 1, clashes were recorded between protesters and police in Berlin at banned demonstrations, including protests organized by Querdenken 711. A participant who collapsed during a protest was later declared dead.

The recent developments highlight the sustained and intensified opposition to COVID-19 restrictions in France and Germany, with hardline groups engaging in more disruptive acts during demonstrations. Despite the scale of violence recorded in protests, governments are unlikely to backtrack on regulations, given the overall good public support. As such, intermittent large-scale demonstrations organized by far-right and COVID-19 skeptic groups are expected to continue in major cities regionwide in the near-to-medium term. Such demonstrations are likely to witness heightened levels of unrest, including clashes between demonstrators and police.

Italy: Lazio COVID-19 vaccination registration system targeted by cyberattack per August 1 reports; highlights threats to vaccine rollout

According to August 1 reports, the information technology (IT) systems of the company that manages COVID-19 vaccination appointments for the Lazio region, which includes Rome, were targeted by an ongoing ransomware attack, in which hackers use an extortion technique by encrypting and threatening to expose data. All services were deactivated, including those of the region’s health portal and vaccination network. Authorities announced that the incident could delay the inoculation program. An investigation is ongoing.

That cybercriminals targeted Lazio’s vaccine registration system highlights the growing threat posed to the rollout of vaccines as well as general healthcare infrastructure regionwide, considering that the platform is a key component of the mass vaccination efforts meant to optimize the process. That similar systems and facilities were targeted in Bulgaria, Spain, the UK, among other countries supports this. The attack was likely carried out in order to gain sensitive patient data and disrupt the vaccine rollout for monetary gain. With that, similar attempts are likely going forward amid the ongoing global vaccination efforts, with authorities likely to call to strengthen Italy’s critical infrastructures’ security.

August 3    

• Antigua & Barbuda: Carnival Holiday    
• Bahamas: Emancipation Holiday    
• British Virgin Islands: August Festival    
• El Salvador: Fiesta de San Salvador / Public Sector Holiday    
• St. Kitts & Nevis: August Tuesday / Culturama    
• UK: RMT Tube Strike in London     

August 4   

• British Virgin Islands: August Festival   

August 5   

• Croatia: Victory & Homeland Thanksgiving Day   

August 6   

• Bolivia: National Day   
• El Salvador: Celebracion del Divino Salvador del Mundo    
• Jamaica: Independence Day     

August 7    

• Colombia: Battle of Boyaca Day   

August 8    

• Ecuador: National Day Holiday   

August 9  

• Ecuador: National Day Holiday  
• Suriname: Indigenous People’s Day 

August 10 

• Nicaragua: Dejada de Santo Domingo de Guzman 
• Romania: Protest in Bucharest 

August 13 

• Germany: Strike in Frankfurt 

August 15

• Regionwide: Assumption Day