23
Aug 2021
12:06 UTC

MAX – Europe and the Americas Daily Summary – August 23, 2021

The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Highlights of the Day

Americas

  • Bolivia: CPIB to hold protest march through multiple regions over indigenous rights on August 24; maintain heightened vigilance
  • Cuba & USA: Washington imposes sanctions on three Cuban officials, per August 20 reports; further sanctions likely near term
  • USA: Far-right, anti-fascist groups clash at Proud Boys rally in Portland, OR on August 22; liable to continue being epicenter of violence

Europe

  • Sweden: PM Lofven announces resignation on August 22, effective in November; unlikely to lead to political instability in immediate term
  • UK: One of three suspects arrested in homophobic attack at Birmingham’s Gay Village on August 21; risk of similar attacks remains
  • Ukraine: Independence Day military parade to take place from Khreschatyk Street in Kyiv on August 24; maintain vigilance

 

Americas Actionable Items

Americas: Authorities modify restrictions as COVID-19 vaccination campaigns continue regionwide on August 23; remain cognizant of updates

In Honduras, health officials will administer the second dose of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine across all vaccination centers from August 23. In Jamaica, vaccinations against COVID-19 will resume for the general public from August 25. Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca vaccines will be used for inoculation. High school students in the country are required to be vaccinated to attend face-to-face classes, starting in October. Schools will reopen for both vaccinated and unvaccinated students from September 1, however, face-to-face classes will begin in October. In Peru, authorities have extended the night-time curfew in Callao and Lima during the hours of 12:00-04:00 until at least August 27. Further restrictions can be found here. People over the age of 36 will receive vaccinations from August 25.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on August 23 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures. 

 

Bolivia: CPIB to hold protest march through multiple regions over indigenous rights on August 24; maintain heightened vigilance

Central de Pueblos Indigenas del Beni (CPIB), an indigenous organization, will hold a protest march from departments of Beli, Pando, and Tarija to Santa Cruz from the morning hours (local time) on August 24. The march is being held to defend the rights and lands of the indigenous communities. As of writing, the exact timing and locations of the march have not been announced.

Based on precedent and the mobilizational capabilities of the group, the march is expected to attract a turnout in the low-to-mid thousands. A bolstered security presence is expected along the route of the march to monitor proceedings. Given the prevailing heightened sentiments around indigenous rights, the march carries an elevated potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police. In the likely event of widespread unrest, security forces are likely to resort to forcible dispersal methods, including the use of rubber bullets and arrests to disperse the crowd. Disruptions to vehicular traffic are anticipated around the march locations. Roads will likely be closed and traffic is expected to be diverted via different routes.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Bolivia on August 24 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to potential unrest and allot to disruptions to vehicular traffic in the vicinity of the protest locations.

 

Brazil: Indigenous rights activists to hold vigil, demonstration outside STF in Brasilia on August 24-25; maintain vigilance

Reports indicate that activists associated with the Articulacao dos Povos Indigenas do Brasil (APIB) will hold demonstrations outside the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), Brazil’s supreme court, in Brasilia on August 24-25. On August 24, participants will gather for a vigil from 19:00-22:00 (local time). On August 25, a protest will be held outside the STF from 14:00. The events are part of a one-week national mobilization campaign to call for increased rights for the indigenous community and denounce the perceived anti-indigenous measures of the government.

Based on the mobilization capacity of the group involved, the events are likely to attract turnouts in the high hundreds on both days. Given the heightened sentiments over the issue, the protest on August 25 carries a latent potential for unrest. Localized clashes between protesters and police officers are liable. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed on August 24-25 around the STF to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the STF for the duration of the events on both days.

Those operating or residing in Brasilia on August 24 and 25 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the STF due to the latent potential for localized clashes at the planned gatherings.

 

Canada: Protests to be held outside RCMP offices across BC, including Victoria at 13:00 (local time) on August 23; allot for disruptions

Protests are slated to be held in several municipalities across British Columbia (BC) outside the offices of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) between 13:00-15:00 (local time) on August 23 in Burnaby, Courtenay, Duncan, Nanaimo, Nelson, Parksville, Powell River, Sechelt, Sooke, Vernon, and Victoria. Several groups, including the Fairy Creek Blockade and Extinction Rebellion Salish Sea, will protest to condemn the recent arrests at Fairy Creek where protests have been held to call for old-growth logging to stop.

Based on organizers’ estimates and heightened public sentiment over the issue, the demonstrations are likely to witness a turnout in the low hundreds in each location. The protest in Victoria is likely to draw a higher attendance, in the low-to-mid hundreds. The protests are expected to transpire largely peacefully and without major unrest. Regardless, a bolstered security will be deployed outside all RCMP offices in BC as a preemptive measure to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic in the vicinity of the RCMP offices are highly likely during the slated hours.

Those operating or residing in British Columbia on August 23 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of all protest locations.

 

Mexico & USA: TD Henri to cause rainfall in northeast USA, Hurricane Grace passes through Mexico on August 23-24; remain abreast of alerts

According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Depression (TD) Henri is moving in the west-northwest direction at 13 kilometers per hour along the Atlantic coast and is forecast to move east-northeast during the afternoon hours (local time) on August 23.  NHC has thus, forecast heavy rainfall over Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania in the USA from August 23 – 24, with flash and small stream flooding also likely in the aforementioned regions. The inclement weather conditions have resulted in widespread power outages across the northeast USA, with more than 50,000 and 10,000 outages reported in Rhode Island and Connecticut, respectively, as of August 22. The death toll from flooding in Tennessee is at 21, with 20 individuals reported as missing. Additionally, the passage of Hurricane Grace on August 21-22, resulted in the death of eight people in Veracruz and three in Puebla, Mexico, with significant damages to infrastructure reported. The inclement weather conditions are likely to cause power outages and travel disruptions in the aforementioned regions on August 23 and 24.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Mexico & the USA on August 23-24 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ alerts regarding weather-related risks and allot for associated disruptions to travel and services.

 

USA: Wildfires continue to spread across California, including Dixie fire on August 23; remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates

Multiple wildfires remain active across California as of August 23. The Caldor fire active since August 14 has spread across 104,309 acres and has prompted 33,000 evacuations in El Dorado County. The State Route 50 between Sacramento and the Lake Tahoe area remains closed as of August 23. With only 5 percent contained, authorities are expecting to contain the Caldor fire by August 31. Meanwhile, about 38 percent of the Dixie fire that burned more than 720,000 acres of land has been contained. In southern California, evacuation orders remain in place due to the ongoing French Fire, northeast of Bakersfield in Kern County, with only 10 percent of the fire contained so far. Additionally, the Monument fire that is spread across 148,213 acres has prompted the closure of State Route 299 between Burnt Ranch and Junction City. State Route 36 in Shasta County has also been closed due to the McFarland fire. Disruptions to travel and public services in the form of road closures and power outages are expected in the coming days in several counties of California.

Those operating or residing near the aforementioned regions in California on August 23 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates regarding wildfires-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and public services.

 

Americas Notable Events

Cuba & USA: Washington imposes sanctions on three Cuban officials, per August 20 reports; further sanctions likely near term

According to August 20 reports, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on three high-ranking Cuban officials on grounds of suppressing anti-government protests since July 11 and committing human rights abuses. The action was taken under the Global Magnitsky Act program, which freezes their assets and bans US transactions with them. The new sanctions mark the fourth round of measures Washington has taken against Cuban officials and entities following similar moves on July 22, July 30, and August 13.

Given that the sanctions are largely symbolic and have no direct impact on Cuban governance or policy, the move is likely an attempt to condemn the Cuban government’s response to the protests and to appease Cuban-American voters in Florida ahead of the 2022 gubernatorial elections in the state. Overall, the domestic security landscape in Cuba is unlikely to alter in the near-to-medium term, with anti-government protesters and dissenters likely to remain targets through detentions and extended prison terms. Given precedent, the USA is expected to impose further sanctions against Cuban officials until authorities release the detained and imprisoned protestors.

 

USA: Far-right, anti-fascist groups clash at Proud Boys rally in Portland, OR on August 22; liable to continue being epicenter of violence

According to reports, hundreds of far-right demonstrators clashed with far-left counter-protesters following a Proud Boys event in downtown Portland, OR on August 22. The two sides attacked each other with paintballs and chemicals, and destroyed property, with at least one individual being arrested for firing a gun. City officials were aware of the protest but declined to intervene due to a “lack of resources”. The Proud Boys demonstration coincided with the one-year anniversary of violent clashes between far-right and far-left crowds in Portland. Skirmishes were also recorded between the groups on August 7.

The clashes highlight continuing confrontations between far-right and far-left groups in Portland, which has witnessed intermittent but sustained, skirmishes since late May 2020. Although Portland has been the location of consistent violent clashes, even in the heavily trafficked downtown area, the most recent clashes are unlikely to indicate a wider trend of violent protests nationwide. That said, tensions between far-right and anti-fascist groups in Portland are likely to persist, with protests and counter-protests to recur in the near-to-medium term as local authorities struggle to contain the violence.

 

Europe Actionable Items

Europe: Countries modify entry restrictions as immunization drives against COVID-19 continue on August 23; remain cognizant of updates

In Belgium, authorities have declared multiple regions across Europe, including France, Greece, Lithuania, and northern Sweden as ‘red’ zones as of August 23. Czech Republic’s Health Ministry has placed Bulgaria, Monaco, Spain, Lichtenstein, and Switzerland in the ‘High Risk’ (Red) category. Additionally, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and the USA have been placed in the ‘Very High Risk’ (Dark red) category. In Denmark, authorities have classified Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Sweden under the ‘yellow’ zone. In Estonia, only eight countries will be included in the ‘green’ list, including Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the Vatican City effective from August 23. In Greece, authorities have extended restrictions on flights to the islands until August 30. Individuals who wish to travel to and from island regions are required to present either of the following documents: a vaccination certificate, a negative PCR test taken no more than 72 hours prior to travel, or a certificate of recovery. Individuals in the age group 12-17 will be allowed to travel to and from the islands with a 24-hour self-test.

Those operating or residing in Europe on August 23 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

 

Europe: Red alert for heavy rainfall issued in eastern Germany, forest fires continue in Greece on August 23; remain cognizant of updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather agency, has issued a red warning, the highest on a four-tier scale, for heavy rainfall across eastern and southeastern Germany on August 23. Heavy and persistent rainfall is predicted from northern Thuringia and Saxony to the Berlin region and Bavaria. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are also forecast in Baden-Wurttemberg. Details on a warning from Germany’s weather agency Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) can be found here. In Austria, heavy thunderstorms are predicted in the Wiener Neustadt area on August 23. Meanwhile, forest fires continue to burn in Fygia, Evia in Greece on August 23. Firefighters remain stationed in the region with several settlements evacuated. In Cyprus, the Forest Department has issued a red alert nationwide for a high risk of forest fires.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Europe on August 23 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ weather updates and allot for disruptions to travel and public services.

 

Ukraine: Independence Day military parade to take place from Khreschatyk Street in Kyiv on August 24; maintain vigilance

Celebrations in commemoration of the Declaration of Independence of 1991 will be held nationwide on August 24. In Kyiv, a large-scale military parade involving approximately 5,000 personnel will begin from Khreschatyk Street and conclude at Independence Square. The start and end time of the parade has not been announced as of writing. The entrance and exit of the metro stations Maidan Nezalezhnosti and Khreschatyk will be closed from 08:00 (local time).

Given precedent, the parade is liable to attract crowds ranging in the high thousands. The event is expected to transpire without incidents of unrest. However, spontaneous demonstrations may take place across the city. In the event of widespread unrest, police are liable to resort to forcible dispersal methods to control crowds. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely in the vicinity of the parade and throughout the city as a precautionary measure. Significant disruptions to both pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the parade route during the day, with roadblocks likely to be installed across several streets in the surrounding area.

Those operating or residing in Kyiv on August 24 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for disruptions to travel around the aforementioned locations due to the planned parade and potential for spontaneous protests.

 

Europe Notable Events

France: Four dead, two injured following multiple shootings in Marseille as of August 22; security measures to be bolstered

On August 22, three people were reported dead following a shooting in the 14th arrondissement of Marseille at 00:00 (local time). On the same day, a man was shot at and then burnt alive in his car that was found in the 4th arrondissement of Marseille. Separately, two people were injured in a shooting that was carried out in a shopping center in the city on August 20. Following this, authorities announced that additional police patrols will be deployed.

The incidents highlight an uptick in gun violence, given that three cases were reported within three days, with one occurring during the day in a public space that receives high pedestrian traffic. The fact that 11 deaths related to gun violence have been reported since the beginning of 2021 in the department indicates that the threat of similar violence will remain. With the above and the latent threat to bystanders, security measures are anticipated to be bolstered. The assessment is supported by Mayor Benoit Payan’s recent statement indicating that firearms are easily accessible due to gun and drug trafficking.

 

Sweden: PM Lofven announces resignation on August 22, effective in November; unlikely to lead to political instability in immediate term

Prime Minister Stefan Lofven announced on August 22 that he will resign as PM and Sveriges Socialdemokratiska Arbetareparti (S/SAP) party leader at the S/SAP party conference beginning on November 3. Lofven has been S/SAP leader for the past ten years and PM since 2014. A new party leader will be elected at the conference and will need to win a confidence vote in the Riksdag to be sworn in as PM.

Given that Lofven lost a motion of no-confidence in June before being reinstated in July, his announcement likely indicates a new leadership for the S/SAP will be more successful in leading the party into the September 2022 elections. Although Lofven’s decision is unlikely to lead to political instability in the immediate term, the current minority government is liable to struggle to pass a budget in the medium term. The rise of the far-right Sverigedemokraterna (SD) party and tensions with established parties has led to increased political instability since the 2018 elections. With this, the potential for early elections if parliament fails to pass the budget, cannot be ruled out.

 

UK: One of three suspects arrested in homophobic attack at Birmingham’s Gay Village on August 21; risk of similar attacks remains  

A 31-year-old was arrested on August 21 for attacking two individuals from the LGBTQ+ community at Birmingham’s Gay Village on August 15. The suspects shouted homophobic abuses and assaulted the two with bottles during the early morning hours (local time), leaving them severely injured. Following the attack, the West Midlands Police released the identities of three suspects, of which two are yet to be detained.

The attack highlights an increase in the risk of homophobic behavior and the threat of hate crimes targeting the community, as the incident follows the two homophobic attacks in Edinburgh on July 30, another in Hertfordshire on August 8, and accusations against Maldon councilors on August 21 over their decision to not buy an LGBTQ+ flag for the town. With authorities announcing a bolstered police deployment in Birmingham, liaison officers are likely to be deployed to specifically address LGBTQ+ concerns over the coming days, especially since the attack transpired in an area considered to be safe. Regardless, the risk of similar attacks, in the form of verbal abuses or physical assaults, cannot be ruled out.

 

Notable Dates

August 24   

  • UK: Tube Strike in London   
  • Ukraine: Independence Day   

 

August 25   

  • UK: Tube Strike in London   
  • Uruguay: Independence Day  

 

August 26  

  • UK: Tube Strike in London  

 

August 27  

  • Moldova: Independence Day  
  • UK: Tube Strike in London 

 

August 28 

  • UK: Protest in London 
  • USA: Protest march in Washington, DC 

 

August 29 

  • Slovakia: Slovak National Uprising Anniversary 

 

August 30 

  • UK: Summer Bank Holiday 

 

August 31 

  • Moldova: National Language Day 
  • Trinidad and Tobago: Independence Day 

 

September 1 

  • Slovakia: Constitutional Memorial Day 

 

September 2 

  • Transdniestria: Independence Day 

 

September 3 

  • Transdniestria: Public Holiday 

 

September 5

  • Albania: Mother Teresa’s Canonization Holiday

 

September 6

  • Albania: Mother Teresa’s Canonization Holiday
  • Bermuda, Canada, Puerto Rico, USA: Labor Day
  • Bulgaria: Unification Day
  • Vincent & Grenadines: Carnival Monday

 

The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Highlights of the Day

Americas

  • Bolivia: CPIB to hold protest march through multiple regions over indigenous rights on August 24; maintain heightened vigilance
  • Cuba & USA: Washington imposes sanctions on three Cuban officials, per August 20 reports; further sanctions likely near term
  • USA: Far-right, anti-fascist groups clash at Proud Boys rally in Portland, OR on August 22; liable to continue being epicenter of violence

Europe

  • Sweden: PM Lofven announces resignation on August 22, effective in November; unlikely to lead to political instability in immediate term
  • UK: One of three suspects arrested in homophobic attack at Birmingham’s Gay Village on August 21; risk of similar attacks remains
  • Ukraine: Independence Day military parade to take place from Khreschatyk Street in Kyiv on August 24; maintain vigilance

 

Americas Actionable Items

Americas: Authorities modify restrictions as COVID-19 vaccination campaigns continue regionwide on August 23; remain cognizant of updates

In Honduras, health officials will administer the second dose of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine across all vaccination centers from August 23. In Jamaica, vaccinations against COVID-19 will resume for the general public from August 25. Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca vaccines will be used for inoculation. High school students in the country are required to be vaccinated to attend face-to-face classes, starting in October. Schools will reopen for both vaccinated and unvaccinated students from September 1, however, face-to-face classes will begin in October. In Peru, authorities have extended the night-time curfew in Callao and Lima during the hours of 12:00-04:00 until at least August 27. Further restrictions can be found here. People over the age of 36 will receive vaccinations from August 25.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on August 23 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures. 

 

Bolivia: CPIB to hold protest march through multiple regions over indigenous rights on August 24; maintain heightened vigilance

Central de Pueblos Indigenas del Beni (CPIB), an indigenous organization, will hold a protest march from departments of Beli, Pando, and Tarija to Santa Cruz from the morning hours (local time) on August 24. The march is being held to defend the rights and lands of the indigenous communities. As of writing, the exact timing and locations of the march have not been announced.

Based on precedent and the mobilizational capabilities of the group, the march is expected to attract a turnout in the low-to-mid thousands. A bolstered security presence is expected along the route of the march to monitor proceedings. Given the prevailing heightened sentiments around indigenous rights, the march carries an elevated potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police. In the likely event of widespread unrest, security forces are likely to resort to forcible dispersal methods, including the use of rubber bullets and arrests to disperse the crowd. Disruptions to vehicular traffic are anticipated around the march locations. Roads will likely be closed and traffic is expected to be diverted via different routes.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Bolivia on August 24 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to potential unrest and allot to disruptions to vehicular traffic in the vicinity of the protest locations.

 

Brazil: Indigenous rights activists to hold vigil, demonstration outside STF in Brasilia on August 24-25; maintain vigilance

Reports indicate that activists associated with the Articulacao dos Povos Indigenas do Brasil (APIB) will hold demonstrations outside the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), Brazil’s supreme court, in Brasilia on August 24-25. On August 24, participants will gather for a vigil from 19:00-22:00 (local time). On August 25, a protest will be held outside the STF from 14:00. The events are part of a one-week national mobilization campaign to call for increased rights for the indigenous community and denounce the perceived anti-indigenous measures of the government.

Based on the mobilization capacity of the group involved, the events are likely to attract turnouts in the high hundreds on both days. Given the heightened sentiments over the issue, the protest on August 25 carries a latent potential for unrest. Localized clashes between protesters and police officers are liable. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed on August 24-25 around the STF to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the STF for the duration of the events on both days.

Those operating or residing in Brasilia on August 24 and 25 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the STF due to the latent potential for localized clashes at the planned gatherings.

 

Canada: Protests to be held outside RCMP offices across BC, including Victoria at 13:00 (local time) on August 23; allot for disruptions

Protests are slated to be held in several municipalities across British Columbia (BC) outside the offices of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) between 13:00-15:00 (local time) on August 23 in Burnaby, Courtenay, Duncan, Nanaimo, Nelson, Parksville, Powell River, Sechelt, Sooke, Vernon, and Victoria. Several groups, including the Fairy Creek Blockade and Extinction Rebellion Salish Sea, will protest to condemn the recent arrests at Fairy Creek where protests have been held to call for old-growth logging to stop.

Based on organizers’ estimates and heightened public sentiment over the issue, the demonstrations are likely to witness a turnout in the low hundreds in each location. The protest in Victoria is likely to draw a higher attendance, in the low-to-mid hundreds. The protests are expected to transpire largely peacefully and without major unrest. Regardless, a bolstered security will be deployed outside all RCMP offices in BC as a preemptive measure to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic in the vicinity of the RCMP offices are highly likely during the slated hours.

Those operating or residing in British Columbia on August 23 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of all protest locations.

 

Mexico & USA: TD Henri to cause rainfall in northeast USA, Hurricane Grace passes through Mexico on August 23-24; remain abreast of alerts

According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Depression (TD) Henri is moving in the west-northwest direction at 13 kilometers per hour along the Atlantic coast and is forecast to move east-northeast during the afternoon hours (local time) on August 23.  NHC has thus, forecast heavy rainfall over Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania in the USA from August 23 – 24, with flash and small stream flooding also likely in the aforementioned regions. The inclement weather conditions have resulted in widespread power outages across the northeast USA, with more than 50,000 and 10,000 outages reported in Rhode Island and Connecticut, respectively, as of August 22. The death toll from flooding in Tennessee is at 21, with 20 individuals reported as missing. Additionally, the passage of Hurricane Grace on August 21-22, resulted in the death of eight people in Veracruz and three in Puebla, Mexico, with significant damages to infrastructure reported. The inclement weather conditions are likely to cause power outages and travel disruptions in the aforementioned regions on August 23 and 24.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Mexico & the USA on August 23-24 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ alerts regarding weather-related risks and allot for associated disruptions to travel and services.

 

USA: Wildfires continue to spread across California, including Dixie fire on August 23; remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates

Multiple wildfires remain active across California as of August 23. The Caldor fire active since August 14 has spread across 104,309 acres and has prompted 33,000 evacuations in El Dorado County. The State Route 50 between Sacramento and the Lake Tahoe area remains closed as of August 23. With only 5 percent contained, authorities are expecting to contain the Caldor fire by August 31. Meanwhile, about 38 percent of the Dixie fire that burned more than 720,000 acres of land has been contained. In southern California, evacuation orders remain in place due to the ongoing French Fire, northeast of Bakersfield in Kern County, with only 10 percent of the fire contained so far. Additionally, the Monument fire that is spread across 148,213 acres has prompted the closure of State Route 299 between Burnt Ranch and Junction City. State Route 36 in Shasta County has also been closed due to the McFarland fire. Disruptions to travel and public services in the form of road closures and power outages are expected in the coming days in several counties of California.

Those operating or residing near the aforementioned regions in California on August 23 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates regarding wildfires-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and public services.

 

Americas Notable Events

Cuba & USA: Washington imposes sanctions on three Cuban officials, per August 20 reports; further sanctions likely near term

According to August 20 reports, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on three high-ranking Cuban officials on grounds of suppressing anti-government protests since July 11 and committing human rights abuses. The action was taken under the Global Magnitsky Act program, which freezes their assets and bans US transactions with them. The new sanctions mark the fourth round of measures Washington has taken against Cuban officials and entities following similar moves on July 22, July 30, and August 13.

Given that the sanctions are largely symbolic and have no direct impact on Cuban governance or policy, the move is likely an attempt to condemn the Cuban government’s response to the protests and to appease Cuban-American voters in Florida ahead of the 2022 gubernatorial elections in the state. Overall, the domestic security landscape in Cuba is unlikely to alter in the near-to-medium term, with anti-government protesters and dissenters likely to remain targets through detentions and extended prison terms. Given precedent, the USA is expected to impose further sanctions against Cuban officials until authorities release the detained and imprisoned protestors.

 

USA: Far-right, anti-fascist groups clash at Proud Boys rally in Portland, OR on August 22; liable to continue being epicenter of violence

According to reports, hundreds of far-right demonstrators clashed with far-left counter-protesters following a Proud Boys event in downtown Portland, OR on August 22. The two sides attacked each other with paintballs and chemicals, and destroyed property, with at least one individual being arrested for firing a gun. City officials were aware of the protest but declined to intervene due to a “lack of resources”. The Proud Boys demonstration coincided with the one-year anniversary of violent clashes between far-right and far-left crowds in Portland. Skirmishes were also recorded between the groups on August 7.

The clashes highlight continuing confrontations between far-right and far-left groups in Portland, which has witnessed intermittent but sustained, skirmishes since late May 2020. Although Portland has been the location of consistent violent clashes, even in the heavily trafficked downtown area, the most recent clashes are unlikely to indicate a wider trend of violent protests nationwide. That said, tensions between far-right and anti-fascist groups in Portland are likely to persist, with protests and counter-protests to recur in the near-to-medium term as local authorities struggle to contain the violence.

 

Europe Actionable Items

Europe: Countries modify entry restrictions as immunization drives against COVID-19 continue on August 23; remain cognizant of updates

In Belgium, authorities have declared multiple regions across Europe, including France, Greece, Lithuania, and northern Sweden as ‘red’ zones as of August 23. Czech Republic’s Health Ministry has placed Bulgaria, Monaco, Spain, Lichtenstein, and Switzerland in the ‘High Risk’ (Red) category. Additionally, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and the USA have been placed in the ‘Very High Risk’ (Dark red) category. In Denmark, authorities have classified Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Sweden under the ‘yellow’ zone. In Estonia, only eight countries will be included in the ‘green’ list, including Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the Vatican City effective from August 23. In Greece, authorities have extended restrictions on flights to the islands until August 30. Individuals who wish to travel to and from island regions are required to present either of the following documents: a vaccination certificate, a negative PCR test taken no more than 72 hours prior to travel, or a certificate of recovery. Individuals in the age group 12-17 will be allowed to travel to and from the islands with a 24-hour self-test.

Those operating or residing in Europe on August 23 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

 

Europe: Red alert for heavy rainfall issued in eastern Germany, forest fires continue in Greece on August 23; remain cognizant of updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather agency, has issued a red warning, the highest on a four-tier scale, for heavy rainfall across eastern and southeastern Germany on August 23. Heavy and persistent rainfall is predicted from northern Thuringia and Saxony to the Berlin region and Bavaria. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are also forecast in Baden-Wurttemberg. Details on a warning from Germany’s weather agency Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) can be found here. In Austria, heavy thunderstorms are predicted in the Wiener Neustadt area on August 23. Meanwhile, forest fires continue to burn in Fygia, Evia in Greece on August 23. Firefighters remain stationed in the region with several settlements evacuated. In Cyprus, the Forest Department has issued a red alert nationwide for a high risk of forest fires.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Europe on August 23 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ weather updates and allot for disruptions to travel and public services.

 

Ukraine: Independence Day military parade to take place from Khreschatyk Street in Kyiv on August 24; maintain vigilance

Celebrations in commemoration of the Declaration of Independence of 1991 will be held nationwide on August 24. In Kyiv, a large-scale military parade involving approximately 5,000 personnel will begin from Khreschatyk Street and conclude at Independence Square. The start and end time of the parade has not been announced as of writing. The entrance and exit of the metro stations Maidan Nezalezhnosti and Khreschatyk will be closed from 08:00 (local time).

Given precedent, the parade is liable to attract crowds ranging in the high thousands. The event is expected to transpire without incidents of unrest. However, spontaneous demonstrations may take place across the city. In the event of widespread unrest, police are liable to resort to forcible dispersal methods to control crowds. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely in the vicinity of the parade and throughout the city as a precautionary measure. Significant disruptions to both pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the parade route during the day, with roadblocks likely to be installed across several streets in the surrounding area.

Those operating or residing in Kyiv on August 24 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for disruptions to travel around the aforementioned locations due to the planned parade and potential for spontaneous protests.

 

Europe Notable Events

France: Four dead, two injured following multiple shootings in Marseille as of August 22; security measures to be bolstered

On August 22, three people were reported dead following a shooting in the 14th arrondissement of Marseille at 00:00 (local time). On the same day, a man was shot at and then burnt alive in his car that was found in the 4th arrondissement of Marseille. Separately, two people were injured in a shooting that was carried out in a shopping center in the city on August 20. Following this, authorities announced that additional police patrols will be deployed.

The incidents highlight an uptick in gun violence, given that three cases were reported within three days, with one occurring during the day in a public space that receives high pedestrian traffic. The fact that 11 deaths related to gun violence have been reported since the beginning of 2021 in the department indicates that the threat of similar violence will remain. With the above and the latent threat to bystanders, security measures are anticipated to be bolstered. The assessment is supported by Mayor Benoit Payan’s recent statement indicating that firearms are easily accessible due to gun and drug trafficking.

 

Sweden: PM Lofven announces resignation on August 22, effective in November; unlikely to lead to political instability in immediate term

Prime Minister Stefan Lofven announced on August 22 that he will resign as PM and Sveriges Socialdemokratiska Arbetareparti (S/SAP) party leader at the S/SAP party conference beginning on November 3. Lofven has been S/SAP leader for the past ten years and PM since 2014. A new party leader will be elected at the conference and will need to win a confidence vote in the Riksdag to be sworn in as PM.

Given that Lofven lost a motion of no-confidence in June before being reinstated in July, his announcement likely indicates a new leadership for the S/SAP will be more successful in leading the party into the September 2022 elections. Although Lofven’s decision is unlikely to lead to political instability in the immediate term, the current minority government is liable to struggle to pass a budget in the medium term. The rise of the far-right Sverigedemokraterna (SD) party and tensions with established parties has led to increased political instability since the 2018 elections. With this, the potential for early elections if parliament fails to pass the budget, cannot be ruled out.

 

UK: One of three suspects arrested in homophobic attack at Birmingham’s Gay Village on August 21; risk of similar attacks remains  

A 31-year-old was arrested on August 21 for attacking two individuals from the LGBTQ+ community at Birmingham’s Gay Village on August 15. The suspects shouted homophobic abuses and assaulted the two with bottles during the early morning hours (local time), leaving them severely injured. Following the attack, the West Midlands Police released the identities of three suspects, of which two are yet to be detained.

The attack highlights an increase in the risk of homophobic behavior and the threat of hate crimes targeting the community, as the incident follows the two homophobic attacks in Edinburgh on July 30, another in Hertfordshire on August 8, and accusations against Maldon councilors on August 21 over their decision to not buy an LGBTQ+ flag for the town. With authorities announcing a bolstered police deployment in Birmingham, liaison officers are likely to be deployed to specifically address LGBTQ+ concerns over the coming days, especially since the attack transpired in an area considered to be safe. Regardless, the risk of similar attacks, in the form of verbal abuses or physical assaults, cannot be ruled out.

 

Notable Dates

August 24   

  • UK: Tube Strike in London   
  • Ukraine: Independence Day   

 

August 25   

  • UK: Tube Strike in London   
  • Uruguay: Independence Day  

 

August 26  

  • UK: Tube Strike in London  

 

August 27  

  • Moldova: Independence Day  
  • UK: Tube Strike in London 

 

August 28 

  • UK: Protest in London 
  • USA: Protest march in Washington, DC 

 

August 29 

  • Slovakia: Slovak National Uprising Anniversary 

 

August 30 

  • UK: Summer Bank Holiday 

 

August 31 

  • Moldova: National Language Day 
  • Trinidad and Tobago: Independence Day 

 

September 1 

  • Slovakia: Constitutional Memorial Day 

 

September 2 

  • Transdniestria: Independence Day 

 

September 3 

  • Transdniestria: Public Holiday 

 

September 5

  • Albania: Mother Teresa’s Canonization Holiday

 

September 6

  • Albania: Mother Teresa’s Canonization Holiday
  • Bermuda, Canada, Puerto Rico, USA: Labor Day
  • Bulgaria: Unification Day
  • Vincent & Grenadines: Carnival Monday