05
Aug 2021
11:47 UTC

MAX – Europe and the Americas Daily Summary – August 5, 2021

The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Highlights of the Day

Americas

  • Bolivia: Nationwide protests slated to be held against alleged electoral fraud on August 5-6; maintain heightened vigilance
  • Cuba: UJC to hold pro-government march from Torreon de la Chorrera in Havana at 09:00 (local time) on August 5; maintain vigilance
  • Nicaragua: Authorities detain vice presidential candidate Quezada on August 3; reiterates persistent crackdown against political opponents

Europe

  • Italy: Chamber of Deputies approves judicial reform bill after being submitted to confidence vote on August 3; likely to pass in Senate
  • Switzerland: Climate activists to stage protest at Munsterplatz from 12:30 (local time) in Bern on August 6; maintain vigilance
  • UK: Protest in support of LGBTQ+ rights to be held at Downing Street, London at 13:00 (local time) on August 6; allot for disruptions

 

Americas Actionable Items

Americas: COVID-19 vaccination drives continue regionwide on August 5; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

The government of Argentina has confirmed that authorities will begin combining the Sputnik V vaccine with AstraZeneca and Moderna. Individuals who have received the first dose of the Sputnik V vaccine will receive a message from authorities to confirm their approval for a second dose with an alternative vaccine. Chilean authorities and executives of the Chinese pharmaceutical company Sinovac have confirmed that a filing and packaging unit of the CoronaVac vaccine will be set up in Chile. Vaccines from the plant will be exported to the rest of Latin America. In Mexico, adults aged between 18-29 in Tulum will receive their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine from August 9-13 and August 16-17. In the USA, the use of face masks will be mandatory in all Metro Government buildings in Nashville, Tennessee, starting August 5. According to White House officials, the federal government is currently developing a phased plan requiring all foreign nationals traveling to the country to be fully vaccinated before entry with limited exceptions. However, authorities are yet to confirm such a requirement.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on August 5 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

 

Bolivia: Nationwide protests slated to be held against alleged electoral fraud on August 5-6; maintain heightened vigilance

The Comite Nacional de Defensa de la Democracia (CONADE), a Bolivian civil society group, along with other activist groups has called for nationwide protests on August 5-6. The protests are being held following the suspension of investigations into the alleged election fraud during the 2019 general elections, and coincide with Bolivia’s Independence Day. While timings and locations remain unconfirmed, reports indicate that protesters are to march from Plaza del Estudiante to Plaza 24 de Septiembre in Santa Cruz at 18:00 (local time) on August 5. Demonstrations will also be held at the Legislative Assembly in La Paz, the capital, on August 6. Protests are also expected in Cochabamba and other departmental capitals.

Based on precedent and the mobilization capabilities of the groups involved, the protests are likely to draw turnouts ranging in the mid-to-high hundreds each. Given heightened tensions, the protests carry the potential for unrest in the form of clashes between security personnel and activists. As such, a bolstered security presence is anticipated at protest locations. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are likely in major cities.

Those operating or residing in Bolivia on August 5-6 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for disruptions to traffic due to the planned protests.

 

Canada: Border guards, customs officials to hold indefinite nationwide strike from August 6; allot for disruptions

Labor unions representing border workers and customs officials have filed a notice for an indefinite strike nationwide starting August 6. No associated protests have been confirmed as of writing. The strike will impact operations at all Canadian airports, including Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ), land borders, commercial shipping ports, and postal facilities and headquarters. The action is being held to demand better protection for workers as the unions have claimed that unionized workers have been working without a contract for three years. At least 8,500 workers signed the strike notice issued to the government on August 3.

Given the number of workers represented by the unions, the strike is expected to be widely adhered to. While no associated protests have been announced as of writing, demonstrations may be held outside airports, at lands border, and outside federal buildings in major cities. Potential demonstrations will likely transpire without unrest. Regardless, the labor action is expected to cause major travel disruptions along the land border, delays and long queues at airports, as well as delays in postal services.

Those operating or residing in Canada on August 6 and the coming days are advised to allot for disruptions to travel and postal services due to the border guards’ and customs officials’ strike. Reconfirm itineraries with airline operators and allot for airport disruptions, including delays.

 

Canada: Multiple protests slated to take place in Toronto on August 5, 6; allot for disruptions

The families of the victims of Flight PS752, allegedly shot down by Iranian missiles, will organize a march in Toronto on August 5. Participants will march from Queen’s Park at 18:00 (local time) to Nathan Phillips Square to demand that the Canadian government hold the Iranian regime accountable for the incident. Additionally, members of the Tigrayan diaspora will hold a protest in Toronto to denounce the ongoing conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia on August 6 at 99 Wellesley St W at 11:00.

Based on the organizer’s estimates, the protest march on August 5 is likely to draw a turnout ranging from the high-dozens to low hundreds. The protest by the Tigrayan diaspora is likely to attract participants in the high-dozens. Both the protest actions are likely to transpire peacefully. Regardless, a bolstered security deployment can be expected in the vicinity of the protest locations on August 5 and 6, given their proximity to key government buildings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are likely during the August 5 march while limited disruptions are likely during the August 6 protest.

Those operating or residing in Toronto on August 5 and 6 are advised to allot for disruptions due to the slated protests.

 

Canada & USA: Evacuations ordered in British Columbia, Western USA as inclement weather persists on August 5; remain abreast of alerts

The US National Weather Service (NWS) has forecast heavy rainfall and scattered flash floods for southeastern New England, coastal northern California, Virginia, southern Texas, and northern Florida through August 7. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has also forecast critical fire weather, the second-highest in a three-tier system, for northwest Nevada, Oregon, northern California, and the Pacific northwestern region through at least August 6. Ongoing wildfires have prompted fresh evacuation orders in parts of Nevada and northern California, and the closure of Highway 174. In Canada, an evacuation order is in effect in Falkland and the Cedar Hill area of British Colombia (BC). According to the BC Wildfire Service, the number of active fires in the region has increased from 249 on August 3 to 292 as of August 5. Separately, extreme heat warnings issued by Environment Canada are in effect for the East Vancouver Island in BC, and for most of Alberta through at least August 9.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions of Canada or the USA on August 5 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and services.

 

Cuba: UJC to hold pro-government march from Torreon de la Chorrera in Havana at 09:00 (local time) on August 5; maintain vigilance

According to reports, Union de Jovenes Comunistas de Cuba (UJC), the youth wing of the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC), will hold a pro-government march in Havana on August 5. The march, organized under the banner of “#VictoriaPopular”, will depart at 09:00 (local time) from Torreon de la Chorrera and will proceed towards Parque 13 de Marzo. Similar pro-government rallies held on July 17 transpired peacefully and without any incidents of unrest.

Given precedent, the slated march is likely to draw a turnout ranging in the high-hundreds to low-thousands. Although previous rallies transpired peacefully, the latent potential for violence remains, given the possibility for small-scale counter-protests by anti-government activists. Potential counter-protests are likely to be dispersed using forcible dispersal measures such as tear gas and rubber bullets. Authorities are also liable to conduct mass arrests in the event of widespread unrest. As such, a bolstered security deployment should be anticipated in the vicinity of the march to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected along the march route from the morning hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in Havana on August 5 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of Torreon de la Chorrera and Parque 13 de Marzo due to the latent potential for violence at the slated march. 

 

Americas Notable Events

Nicaragua: Authorities detain vice presidential candidate Quezada on August 3; reiterates persistent crackdown against political opponents

According to reports, vice presidential candidate Berenice Quezada from the Alianza Ciudadanos por la Libertad (ACxL) party was arrested and placed under house arrest on August 3. Quezada was accused of “inciting hatred and violence”, following a social media post that allegedly criticized President Daniel Ortega’s government. Quezada’s disqualification has been submitted to the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). Several international and regional observers, including the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) and the US State Department’s Office of Western Hemisphere Affairs, have condemned the incident.

The arrest reiterates the sustained crackdown on Ortega’s political opponents ahead of the upcoming general elections in November. Although Quezada’s disqualification has been referred to the CSE, the declaration is unlikely to be rescinded. This is evidenced by several presidential candidates remaining disqualified despite intensified international criticism and the sanctions introduced by the EU against eight senior Nicaraguan officials on August 2. Moreover, the latest arrest indicates that the targeted crackdown against presidential and vice-presidential candidates from opposition parties is likely to persist in the near-to-medium term, regardless of additional international sanctions.

 

Europe Actionable Items

Europe: Countries revise travel lists, domestic restrictions as vaccination drives continue on August 5; remain cognizant of updates

In the EU, the European Council (EC) has amended the list of countries for which it recommends member states relax entry restrictions. In Italy, the ‘Green Pass” will be required to access some locations and participate in certain social activities. In the Netherlands, travelers returning from Belgium will be randomly checked for a COVID-19 pass at the border as of August 8. Those traveling via public transportation will be checked by the transport companies. Additionally, according to the Dutch authorities, there will be no checks on the Dutch-German border. In Portugal, authorities announced that quarantine requirements will be lifted for those who received the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. In Switzerland, authorities removed all remaining countries, such as the UK, India, and Nepal, from the COVID-19 virus variant concern list on August 4. In the UK, authorities amended the list of countries classified as red, orange, and green zones according to their COVID-19 situations. The new list will come into effect on August 8. In Ukraine, authorities revised entry restrictions as of August 5, which can be found here.

Those operating or residing in Europe on August 5 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines, travel restrictions, and health procedures.

 

Europe: Inclement weather conditions forecast regionwide on August 5; remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather agency, has issued red alerts, the highest in a four-tier system, in Poland and Hungary for rain and thunderstorm on August 5. Red alerts are also in effect in Italy and Serbia for high temperatures. In Bulgaria, orange alerts, the second-highest in the four-tier system, have been issued for high temperatures across 24 districts, including Sofia and Plovdiv as of August 5. Two individuals were reported dead following a fire near the Sandanski region on August 4. The General Secretariat for Civil Protection in Greece forecasts ‘very high risk’, the highest alert-level in a four-tier system, for wildfires as of August 5. Additionally, raging fires on the outskirts of Greece, including in Evia, Ancient Olympia, and Messenia forced thousands of evacuations on August 4. Official sources confirmed that fires in northern Attica were caused by a transformer. Northern Macedonia has been placed on high alert for wildfires since August 2. In Russia, the Ministry of Emergency Situations forecasts a cyclone from August 7-9, causing up to 110 mm of rainfall and heavy winds.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Europe on August 5 and the coming days are advised to maintain vigilance and remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates.

 

Italy: Multiple protests, event slated to be held in Rome between August 5-7; maintain vigilance

According to reports, multiple protests and events are slated to be held in Rome between August 5-7. Protests will be held at Largo Appio Claudio and Viale Giuseppe Mazzini on August 5, at Piazza Ragusa and Piazza del Campidoglio on August 6, and Piazza del Popolo on August 7. In addition, the re-enactment of Miracolo della Madonna della Neve is slated to be held at Piazza Santa Maria Maggiore on August 5.

The events are expected to witness varying turnouts from the high-dozens to the mid-hundreds. However, turnout for the rally on August 7 is expected to be in the low thousands. A bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of the slated protest locations to monitor proceedings. Most protests are expected to transpire largely peacefully. However, the August 7 rally carries a potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and the police, with police liable to use forcible dispersal methods in the event of escalating unrest. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected in Rome on August 5-7.

Those operating or residing in Rome between August 5-7 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations during the slated timings due to the planned protests.

 

Slovakia: Protests slated at Freedom Square, Presidential Palace in Bratislava from 08:00 (local time) on August 5, 6; maintain vigilance

The far-right Ľudova Strana – Nase Slovensko (ĽSNS) party and several civil society organizations have called for anti-government protests in Bratislava on August 5 and 6 to protest existing COVID-19 restrictions. Protesters will gather at the Freedom Square and the Presidential Palace at 08:00 (local time). Reports indicate that the protests are scheduled to continue until 22:00. Reports indicate that authorities are preparing to divert at least 11 public transport bus and trolleybus lines due to the protests.

Based on organizers’ estimates, the protests are likely to draw turnouts ranging in the low-to-mid thousands. Given precedent, additional spontaneous demonstrations are likely across the city. The demonstrations carry the latent potential for scuffles between participants and the deployed police. A bolstered security deployment should be anticipated in the vicinity of the protests and across central thoroughfares of Bratislava. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are expected in the vicinity of these demonstrations, given the potential for protesters to erect roadblocks across the city. Disruptions to public transportation can also be expected on August 5 and 6.

Those operating or residing in Bratislava on August 5 and 6 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the abovementioned locations and allot for disruptions to travel on both days.

 

Switzerland: Climate activists to stage protest at Munsterplatz from 12:30 (local time) in Bern on August 6; maintain vigilance

Reports indicate that activists associated with the climate action movement ‘Rise Up for Change’ will stage a protest at Munsterplatz from 12:30 (local time) in Bern on August 6. Protesters will be demonstrating against Switzerland’s financial institutions for their alleged support of environmentally damaging projects. The protest will end at 16:30. The rally will mark the end of a week of climate action events held across the country. Several environmental groups, including Extinction Rebellion (XR), have announced support for the movement.

Based on the mobilization capacity of the groups involved, the protest is likely to attract a turnout in the mid-hundreds. Judging by the tendency of XR activists to engage in disruptive actions during protests, the demonstration carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of scuffles between protesters and police officers. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of Munsterplatz. Smaller demonstrations are also possible outside the offices of financial institutions in Bern and other major cities. Significant travel disruptions are anticipated in the vicinity of Munsterplatz from the afternoon hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in Bern on August 6 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the potential for unrest arising from the above-slated demonstration and allot for disruptions to travel from the afternoon hours onwards.

 

UK: Protest in support of LGBTQ+ rights to be held at Downing Street, London at 13:00 (local time) on August 6; allot for disruptions

According to reports, LGBTQ+ activists will stage a protest in support of LGBTQ+ rights at Downing Street, London at 13:00 (local time) on August 6. Protesters are gathering to demand that authorities amend the Gender Recognition Act to legally recognize transgender and non-binary individuals. Additionally, activists will also demand improvements to healthcare access for members of the community.

Based on organizers’ estimates, the slated protest is likely to draw a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid hundreds. Although the demonstration is likely to transpire largely peacefully and without incidents of unrest, a bolstered security enforcement can be expected in the vicinity of the protest given its close proximity to government buildings. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of Downing Street from the afternoon hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in London on August 6 are advised to allot for disruptions in the vicinity of Downing Street during the afternoon hours due to the slated protest.

 

Europe Notable Events

Italy: Chamber of Deputies approves judicial reform bill after being submitted to confidence vote on August 3; likely to pass in Senate

The Chamber of Deputies passed the judicial reform bill with 396 votes in favor and 57 against after the bill was submitted to a confidence vote by Prime Minister Mario Draghi on August 3. Under the reform, court trials will be expedited. While the bill was subjected to certain amendments, some members of the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) continued to voice dissatisfaction with the reform and were absent during the vote. The reform was among the pre-conditions set by the EU to receive COVID-19 pandemic recovery funds. The final vote in the Senate is scheduled for September.

Given that Draghi’s coalition government already approved the judicial reform during cabinet meetings, its approval in the Chamber of Deputies was largely anticipated. Moreover, the wide support in favor of the bill is likely due to the reform being a key requirement to secure the EU funds. With Draghi’s government having a large majority in both chambers, the bill is likely to pass in the Senate. Regardless, that some M5S members opposed the reform is indicative of latent intra-coalition divergences over key issues.

 

Ukraine: One detained for threatening to detonate explosive at Government Building in Kyiv on August 4; likely isolated incident

On August 4, an army veteran carrying an explosive threatened to detonate it at the Ukrainian Government Building in Kyiv during the morning hours (local time). CCTV footage suggests the suspect was detained at the building’s entrance within minutes of arrival. A video circulating online showed the suspect brandishing an object and threatening to “not leave the building alive”. Preliminary investigations indicate the veteran’s experience in the service, during which he sustained a craniocerebral injury, might be behind the aforementioned act.

Despite being detained swiftly, that the veteran managed to enter the government building, which houses offices of the cabinet ministers and the Prime Minister, carrying an explosive highlights a potential gap in security arrangements for key government buildings in Kyiv. Given the possibility of the suspect’s motive being tied to combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the above is likely to be an isolated incident. That said, the overall latent threat to public safety from targeted attacks near key government offices is likely to result in enhanced security measures being deployed in Kyiv for the near-to-medium term.

 

Notable Dates

August 6   

  • Bolivia: National Day   
  • El Salvador: Celebracion del Divino Salvador del Mundo    
  • Jamaica: Independence Day     

  

August 7    

  • Colombia: Battle of Boyaca Day   

   

August 8    

  • Ecuador: National Day Holiday   

    

August 9  

  • Ecuador: National Day Holiday  
  • Suriname: Indigenous People’s Day 

 

August 10 

  • Nicaragua: Dejada de Santo Domingo de Guzman 
  • Romania: Protest in Bucharest 

 

August 13 

  • Germany: Strike in Frankfurt 

 

August 15

  • Regionwide: Assumption Day

 

August 16

  • Colombia, Holy See, Monaco, Spain: Assumption Day
  • Dominican Republic: Restoration Day

 

August 17

  • Hungary: Protest in Budapest

 

The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Highlights of the Day

Americas

  • Bolivia: Nationwide protests slated to be held against alleged electoral fraud on August 5-6; maintain heightened vigilance
  • Cuba: UJC to hold pro-government march from Torreon de la Chorrera in Havana at 09:00 (local time) on August 5; maintain vigilance
  • Nicaragua: Authorities detain vice presidential candidate Quezada on August 3; reiterates persistent crackdown against political opponents

Europe

  • Italy: Chamber of Deputies approves judicial reform bill after being submitted to confidence vote on August 3; likely to pass in Senate
  • Switzerland: Climate activists to stage protest at Munsterplatz from 12:30 (local time) in Bern on August 6; maintain vigilance
  • UK: Protest in support of LGBTQ+ rights to be held at Downing Street, London at 13:00 (local time) on August 6; allot for disruptions

 

Americas Actionable Items

Americas: COVID-19 vaccination drives continue regionwide on August 5; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

The government of Argentina has confirmed that authorities will begin combining the Sputnik V vaccine with AstraZeneca and Moderna. Individuals who have received the first dose of the Sputnik V vaccine will receive a message from authorities to confirm their approval for a second dose with an alternative vaccine. Chilean authorities and executives of the Chinese pharmaceutical company Sinovac have confirmed that a filing and packaging unit of the CoronaVac vaccine will be set up in Chile. Vaccines from the plant will be exported to the rest of Latin America. In Mexico, adults aged between 18-29 in Tulum will receive their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine from August 9-13 and August 16-17. In the USA, the use of face masks will be mandatory in all Metro Government buildings in Nashville, Tennessee, starting August 5. According to White House officials, the federal government is currently developing a phased plan requiring all foreign nationals traveling to the country to be fully vaccinated before entry with limited exceptions. However, authorities are yet to confirm such a requirement.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on August 5 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

 

Bolivia: Nationwide protests slated to be held against alleged electoral fraud on August 5-6; maintain heightened vigilance

The Comite Nacional de Defensa de la Democracia (CONADE), a Bolivian civil society group, along with other activist groups has called for nationwide protests on August 5-6. The protests are being held following the suspension of investigations into the alleged election fraud during the 2019 general elections, and coincide with Bolivia’s Independence Day. While timings and locations remain unconfirmed, reports indicate that protesters are to march from Plaza del Estudiante to Plaza 24 de Septiembre in Santa Cruz at 18:00 (local time) on August 5. Demonstrations will also be held at the Legislative Assembly in La Paz, the capital, on August 6. Protests are also expected in Cochabamba and other departmental capitals.

Based on precedent and the mobilization capabilities of the groups involved, the protests are likely to draw turnouts ranging in the mid-to-high hundreds each. Given heightened tensions, the protests carry the potential for unrest in the form of clashes between security personnel and activists. As such, a bolstered security presence is anticipated at protest locations. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are likely in major cities.

Those operating or residing in Bolivia on August 5-6 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for disruptions to traffic due to the planned protests.

 

Canada: Border guards, customs officials to hold indefinite nationwide strike from August 6; allot for disruptions

Labor unions representing border workers and customs officials have filed a notice for an indefinite strike nationwide starting August 6. No associated protests have been confirmed as of writing. The strike will impact operations at all Canadian airports, including Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ), land borders, commercial shipping ports, and postal facilities and headquarters. The action is being held to demand better protection for workers as the unions have claimed that unionized workers have been working without a contract for three years. At least 8,500 workers signed the strike notice issued to the government on August 3.

Given the number of workers represented by the unions, the strike is expected to be widely adhered to. While no associated protests have been announced as of writing, demonstrations may be held outside airports, at lands border, and outside federal buildings in major cities. Potential demonstrations will likely transpire without unrest. Regardless, the labor action is expected to cause major travel disruptions along the land border, delays and long queues at airports, as well as delays in postal services.

Those operating or residing in Canada on August 6 and the coming days are advised to allot for disruptions to travel and postal services due to the border guards’ and customs officials’ strike. Reconfirm itineraries with airline operators and allot for airport disruptions, including delays.

 

Canada: Multiple protests slated to take place in Toronto on August 5, 6; allot for disruptions

The families of the victims of Flight PS752, allegedly shot down by Iranian missiles, will organize a march in Toronto on August 5. Participants will march from Queen’s Park at 18:00 (local time) to Nathan Phillips Square to demand that the Canadian government hold the Iranian regime accountable for the incident. Additionally, members of the Tigrayan diaspora will hold a protest in Toronto to denounce the ongoing conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia on August 6 at 99 Wellesley St W at 11:00.

Based on the organizer’s estimates, the protest march on August 5 is likely to draw a turnout ranging from the high-dozens to low hundreds. The protest by the Tigrayan diaspora is likely to attract participants in the high-dozens. Both the protest actions are likely to transpire peacefully. Regardless, a bolstered security deployment can be expected in the vicinity of the protest locations on August 5 and 6, given their proximity to key government buildings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are likely during the August 5 march while limited disruptions are likely during the August 6 protest.

Those operating or residing in Toronto on August 5 and 6 are advised to allot for disruptions due to the slated protests.

 

Canada & USA: Evacuations ordered in British Columbia, Western USA as inclement weather persists on August 5; remain abreast of alerts

The US National Weather Service (NWS) has forecast heavy rainfall and scattered flash floods for southeastern New England, coastal northern California, Virginia, southern Texas, and northern Florida through August 7. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has also forecast critical fire weather, the second-highest in a three-tier system, for northwest Nevada, Oregon, northern California, and the Pacific northwestern region through at least August 6. Ongoing wildfires have prompted fresh evacuation orders in parts of Nevada and northern California, and the closure of Highway 174. In Canada, an evacuation order is in effect in Falkland and the Cedar Hill area of British Colombia (BC). According to the BC Wildfire Service, the number of active fires in the region has increased from 249 on August 3 to 292 as of August 5. Separately, extreme heat warnings issued by Environment Canada are in effect for the East Vancouver Island in BC, and for most of Alberta through at least August 9.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions of Canada or the USA on August 5 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and services.

 

Cuba: UJC to hold pro-government march from Torreon de la Chorrera in Havana at 09:00 (local time) on August 5; maintain vigilance

According to reports, Union de Jovenes Comunistas de Cuba (UJC), the youth wing of the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC), will hold a pro-government march in Havana on August 5. The march, organized under the banner of “#VictoriaPopular”, will depart at 09:00 (local time) from Torreon de la Chorrera and will proceed towards Parque 13 de Marzo. Similar pro-government rallies held on July 17 transpired peacefully and without any incidents of unrest.

Given precedent, the slated march is likely to draw a turnout ranging in the high-hundreds to low-thousands. Although previous rallies transpired peacefully, the latent potential for violence remains, given the possibility for small-scale counter-protests by anti-government activists. Potential counter-protests are likely to be dispersed using forcible dispersal measures such as tear gas and rubber bullets. Authorities are also liable to conduct mass arrests in the event of widespread unrest. As such, a bolstered security deployment should be anticipated in the vicinity of the march to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected along the march route from the morning hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in Havana on August 5 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of Torreon de la Chorrera and Parque 13 de Marzo due to the latent potential for violence at the slated march. 

 

Americas Notable Events

Nicaragua: Authorities detain vice presidential candidate Quezada on August 3; reiterates persistent crackdown against political opponents

According to reports, vice presidential candidate Berenice Quezada from the Alianza Ciudadanos por la Libertad (ACxL) party was arrested and placed under house arrest on August 3. Quezada was accused of “inciting hatred and violence”, following a social media post that allegedly criticized President Daniel Ortega’s government. Quezada’s disqualification has been submitted to the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). Several international and regional observers, including the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) and the US State Department’s Office of Western Hemisphere Affairs, have condemned the incident.

The arrest reiterates the sustained crackdown on Ortega’s political opponents ahead of the upcoming general elections in November. Although Quezada’s disqualification has been referred to the CSE, the declaration is unlikely to be rescinded. This is evidenced by several presidential candidates remaining disqualified despite intensified international criticism and the sanctions introduced by the EU against eight senior Nicaraguan officials on August 2. Moreover, the latest arrest indicates that the targeted crackdown against presidential and vice-presidential candidates from opposition parties is likely to persist in the near-to-medium term, regardless of additional international sanctions.

 

Europe Actionable Items

Europe: Countries revise travel lists, domestic restrictions as vaccination drives continue on August 5; remain cognizant of updates

In the EU, the European Council (EC) has amended the list of countries for which it recommends member states relax entry restrictions. In Italy, the ‘Green Pass” will be required to access some locations and participate in certain social activities. In the Netherlands, travelers returning from Belgium will be randomly checked for a COVID-19 pass at the border as of August 8. Those traveling via public transportation will be checked by the transport companies. Additionally, according to the Dutch authorities, there will be no checks on the Dutch-German border. In Portugal, authorities announced that quarantine requirements will be lifted for those who received the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. In Switzerland, authorities removed all remaining countries, such as the UK, India, and Nepal, from the COVID-19 virus variant concern list on August 4. In the UK, authorities amended the list of countries classified as red, orange, and green zones according to their COVID-19 situations. The new list will come into effect on August 8. In Ukraine, authorities revised entry restrictions as of August 5, which can be found here.

Those operating or residing in Europe on August 5 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines, travel restrictions, and health procedures.

 

Europe: Inclement weather conditions forecast regionwide on August 5; remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather agency, has issued red alerts, the highest in a four-tier system, in Poland and Hungary for rain and thunderstorm on August 5. Red alerts are also in effect in Italy and Serbia for high temperatures. In Bulgaria, orange alerts, the second-highest in the four-tier system, have been issued for high temperatures across 24 districts, including Sofia and Plovdiv as of August 5. Two individuals were reported dead following a fire near the Sandanski region on August 4. The General Secretariat for Civil Protection in Greece forecasts ‘very high risk’, the highest alert-level in a four-tier system, for wildfires as of August 5. Additionally, raging fires on the outskirts of Greece, including in Evia, Ancient Olympia, and Messenia forced thousands of evacuations on August 4. Official sources confirmed that fires in northern Attica were caused by a transformer. Northern Macedonia has been placed on high alert for wildfires since August 2. In Russia, the Ministry of Emergency Situations forecasts a cyclone from August 7-9, causing up to 110 mm of rainfall and heavy winds.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Europe on August 5 and the coming days are advised to maintain vigilance and remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates.

 

Italy: Multiple protests, event slated to be held in Rome between August 5-7; maintain vigilance

According to reports, multiple protests and events are slated to be held in Rome between August 5-7. Protests will be held at Largo Appio Claudio and Viale Giuseppe Mazzini on August 5, at Piazza Ragusa and Piazza del Campidoglio on August 6, and Piazza del Popolo on August 7. In addition, the re-enactment of Miracolo della Madonna della Neve is slated to be held at Piazza Santa Maria Maggiore on August 5.

The events are expected to witness varying turnouts from the high-dozens to the mid-hundreds. However, turnout for the rally on August 7 is expected to be in the low thousands. A bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of the slated protest locations to monitor proceedings. Most protests are expected to transpire largely peacefully. However, the August 7 rally carries a potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and the police, with police liable to use forcible dispersal methods in the event of escalating unrest. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected in Rome on August 5-7.

Those operating or residing in Rome between August 5-7 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations during the slated timings due to the planned protests.

 

Slovakia: Protests slated at Freedom Square, Presidential Palace in Bratislava from 08:00 (local time) on August 5, 6; maintain vigilance

The far-right Ľudova Strana – Nase Slovensko (ĽSNS) party and several civil society organizations have called for anti-government protests in Bratislava on August 5 and 6 to protest existing COVID-19 restrictions. Protesters will gather at the Freedom Square and the Presidential Palace at 08:00 (local time). Reports indicate that the protests are scheduled to continue until 22:00. Reports indicate that authorities are preparing to divert at least 11 public transport bus and trolleybus lines due to the protests.

Based on organizers’ estimates, the protests are likely to draw turnouts ranging in the low-to-mid thousands. Given precedent, additional spontaneous demonstrations are likely across the city. The demonstrations carry the latent potential for scuffles between participants and the deployed police. A bolstered security deployment should be anticipated in the vicinity of the protests and across central thoroughfares of Bratislava. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are expected in the vicinity of these demonstrations, given the potential for protesters to erect roadblocks across the city. Disruptions to public transportation can also be expected on August 5 and 6.

Those operating or residing in Bratislava on August 5 and 6 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the abovementioned locations and allot for disruptions to travel on both days.

 

Switzerland: Climate activists to stage protest at Munsterplatz from 12:30 (local time) in Bern on August 6; maintain vigilance

Reports indicate that activists associated with the climate action movement ‘Rise Up for Change’ will stage a protest at Munsterplatz from 12:30 (local time) in Bern on August 6. Protesters will be demonstrating against Switzerland’s financial institutions for their alleged support of environmentally damaging projects. The protest will end at 16:30. The rally will mark the end of a week of climate action events held across the country. Several environmental groups, including Extinction Rebellion (XR), have announced support for the movement.

Based on the mobilization capacity of the groups involved, the protest is likely to attract a turnout in the mid-hundreds. Judging by the tendency of XR activists to engage in disruptive actions during protests, the demonstration carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of scuffles between protesters and police officers. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of Munsterplatz. Smaller demonstrations are also possible outside the offices of financial institutions in Bern and other major cities. Significant travel disruptions are anticipated in the vicinity of Munsterplatz from the afternoon hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in Bern on August 6 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the potential for unrest arising from the above-slated demonstration and allot for disruptions to travel from the afternoon hours onwards.

 

UK: Protest in support of LGBTQ+ rights to be held at Downing Street, London at 13:00 (local time) on August 6; allot for disruptions

According to reports, LGBTQ+ activists will stage a protest in support of LGBTQ+ rights at Downing Street, London at 13:00 (local time) on August 6. Protesters are gathering to demand that authorities amend the Gender Recognition Act to legally recognize transgender and non-binary individuals. Additionally, activists will also demand improvements to healthcare access for members of the community.

Based on organizers’ estimates, the slated protest is likely to draw a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid hundreds. Although the demonstration is likely to transpire largely peacefully and without incidents of unrest, a bolstered security enforcement can be expected in the vicinity of the protest given its close proximity to government buildings. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of Downing Street from the afternoon hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in London on August 6 are advised to allot for disruptions in the vicinity of Downing Street during the afternoon hours due to the slated protest.

 

Europe Notable Events

Italy: Chamber of Deputies approves judicial reform bill after being submitted to confidence vote on August 3; likely to pass in Senate

The Chamber of Deputies passed the judicial reform bill with 396 votes in favor and 57 against after the bill was submitted to a confidence vote by Prime Minister Mario Draghi on August 3. Under the reform, court trials will be expedited. While the bill was subjected to certain amendments, some members of the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) continued to voice dissatisfaction with the reform and were absent during the vote. The reform was among the pre-conditions set by the EU to receive COVID-19 pandemic recovery funds. The final vote in the Senate is scheduled for September.

Given that Draghi’s coalition government already approved the judicial reform during cabinet meetings, its approval in the Chamber of Deputies was largely anticipated. Moreover, the wide support in favor of the bill is likely due to the reform being a key requirement to secure the EU funds. With Draghi’s government having a large majority in both chambers, the bill is likely to pass in the Senate. Regardless, that some M5S members opposed the reform is indicative of latent intra-coalition divergences over key issues.

 

Ukraine: One detained for threatening to detonate explosive at Government Building in Kyiv on August 4; likely isolated incident

On August 4, an army veteran carrying an explosive threatened to detonate it at the Ukrainian Government Building in Kyiv during the morning hours (local time). CCTV footage suggests the suspect was detained at the building’s entrance within minutes of arrival. A video circulating online showed the suspect brandishing an object and threatening to “not leave the building alive”. Preliminary investigations indicate the veteran’s experience in the service, during which he sustained a craniocerebral injury, might be behind the aforementioned act.

Despite being detained swiftly, that the veteran managed to enter the government building, which houses offices of the cabinet ministers and the Prime Minister, carrying an explosive highlights a potential gap in security arrangements for key government buildings in Kyiv. Given the possibility of the suspect’s motive being tied to combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the above is likely to be an isolated incident. That said, the overall latent threat to public safety from targeted attacks near key government offices is likely to result in enhanced security measures being deployed in Kyiv for the near-to-medium term.

 

Notable Dates

August 6   

  • Bolivia: National Day   
  • El Salvador: Celebracion del Divino Salvador del Mundo    
  • Jamaica: Independence Day     

  

August 7    

  • Colombia: Battle of Boyaca Day   

   

August 8    

  • Ecuador: National Day Holiday   

    

August 9  

  • Ecuador: National Day Holiday  
  • Suriname: Indigenous People’s Day 

 

August 10 

  • Nicaragua: Dejada de Santo Domingo de Guzman 
  • Romania: Protest in Bucharest 

 

August 13 

  • Germany: Strike in Frankfurt 

 

August 15

  • Regionwide: Assumption Day

 

August 16

  • Colombia, Holy See, Monaco, Spain: Assumption Day
  • Dominican Republic: Restoration Day

 

August 17

  • Hungary: Protest in Budapest