The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Americas

• Argentina: Protestors in Santa Rosa, La Palma set police cars on fire on November 28; protests against police likely in near term
• Ecuador: President Lasso extends state of exception in penitentiary system for 30 days on November 29; prison violence to continue
• Mexico: President calls for celebratory gathering at Plaza de la Constitucion, Mexico City on December 1; allot for disruptions

Europe

• Poland: Pro-choice protests slated to be held nationwide, including in Warsaw from 18:00 (local time) on December 1; maintain vigilance
• Sweden: S/SAP leader Magdalena Andersson re-elected as PM on November 29; political uncertainty expected to continue
• Ukraine: Zelensky dismisses SBU counterintelligence chief on November 29; likely related to probe into Russia-linked paramilitary group

Americas: Countries restrict travel to contain spread of COVID-19 variant as of November 30; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

In Argentina, authorities have imposed a mandatory 10-day quarantine period for all travelers arriving from African countries, as of November 29. In Brazil, authorities in Sao Paulo City announced that, from November 30, Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine will be used as a booster shot for individuals who have been inoculated with Janssen’s single-dose vaccine. Chile has announced a travel ban on non-resident foreigners from seven southern African countries, as of December 1. In Cuba, as of December 4, entry protocols for travelers arriving from multiple African nations, as well as Belgium, Israel, Hong Kong, Egypt, and Turkey will be tightened. Ecuador has announced an entry ban on travelers from several countries including South Africa and Namibia, as of December 1. Peru has extended the existing COVID-19-related State of Emergency (SoE) until December 31. In Paraguay, authorities have introduced a travel ban on foreign travelers from multiple African nations including Angola and Botswana. In the USA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has advised all individuals aged 18 and older to get themselves inoculated with a COVID-19 booster shot.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on November 30 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding quarantines and health procedures.

Americas: Warnings for heavy rains, wildfires issued across region on November 30; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

Canada’s meteorological service, Environment Canada, has issued warnings for rains in British Columbia (BC). The province-wide state of emergency has been extended due to potential floods and landslides until December 14. BC authorities announced that access to fuel purchases for non-essential vehicles will be limited and the restriction to travel along compromised highways will be maintained. In the USA, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a flood alert for multiple counties across Washington state. Information on other weather alerts in the US can be found here. In Chile’s Valparaiso, a yellow alert, the second-highest in a three-tier system, is in place for wildfires. Several wildfires have been reported since November 28 around the commune. Additionally, the Ministerio del Interior y Seguridad Publica (ONEMI) issued an early warning for potential wildfires due to elevated temperatures in the O’Higgins region. Further details can be found here.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions of Canada, Chile, and the US on November 30 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of updates regarding weather-related risks. Allot for potential disruptions to public services, including road closures and utility outages.

Canada: Protest slated to take place at Place Limouloise in Quebec at 19:00 (local time) on December 1; allot for disruptions

According to reports, a protest is slated to take place at Place Limouloise in Quebec at 19:00 (local time) on December 1. The demonstration has been organized by multiple civil society organizations against the construction of a gas pipeline in an alleged indigenous territory from the Wet’suwet’en community in British Columbia (B.C).

Based on the mobilization capabilities of the groups involved, as well as social media estimates, the demonstration is expected to witness a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid hundreds. Judging by the heightened sentiments surrounding the issue, the protest carries a latent potential for localized clashes between the protesters and police.  Moreover, as seen during recent protests, protesters are liable to erect blockades on roads and railway lines, prompting significant disruptions to public transport, as well as localized disruptions to traffic in the vicinity of Palace Limouloise. In such a scenario, police are liable to use forcible dispersal measures and conduct arrests to remove blockades.   As such, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of Palace Limouloise to monitor proceedings from the afternoon onwards.

Those operating or residing in Quebec on December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Palace Limouloise from the afternoon hours onwards due to the planned protest.

Canada: Via Rail announces train delays, cancelations on Ottawa-Toronto corridor on November 29-30; allot for disruptions

On November 28, Via Rail, Canada’s national passenger rail service, announced the cancelation of trains operating between Ottawa and Toronto from November 29-20 due to infrastructural issues impacting the operations. Cancelled trains include train numbers 50, 40, 47, 645, 60, 668, 61, and 67. Further, Via Rail has stated that delays of up to 45 minutes can be expected on train numbers 42, 46, and 54 and delays up to 90 minutes can be expected on train number 53.

Those operating or residing in Ottawa and Toronto on November 29-30 are advised to allot for travel disruptions due to the planned cancelations and expected delays. Reconfirm itineraries.

Jamaica: Police impose curfew in parts of Kingston West on November 29-December 1; avoid nonessential travel

On November 29, police authorities have imposed a 48-hour curfew in parts of Angola, Mexico, and Zimbabwe communities in Kingston West to contain crime levels. The curfew will remain in effect until 18:00 (local time) on December 1. During the curfew hours, all residents living in the abovementioned areas must be within the premises unless authorized in writing by the ground commander.

Based on precedent, the risk of local gangs attempting to retaliate against increased security measures remains high, possibly resulting in gunfights with law enforcement in public places. That homicide rates have remained high despite several curfews imposed in recent months illustrates the limited effect of the security apparatus in controlling rising gang-related crimes. Such episodes pose an elevated threat of spillover violence to bystanders in that area. Increased security checks in the form of bolstered police patrols and stop-and-search measures, as well as pre-emptive arrests and raids, are likely to continue beyond the curfew hours in Kingston in the near-to-medium term.

Those operating or residing in Kingston on November 30-December 1 are advised to avoid nonessential travel to the division of Kingston West due to the potential for violence. Remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions on movement restrictions.

Mexico: President calls for celebratory gathering at Plaza de la Constitucion, Mexico City on December 1; allot for disruptions

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has called for a gathering to celebrate three years of his term as president in Mexico City on December 1. The event is scheduled to take place at Plaza de la Constitucion at 17:00 (local time), as indicated in AMLO’s video message posted on social media.

Based on social media estimates the slated event is likely to draw turnouts ranging in the high thousands-to-mid tens of thousands. Although the slated celebratory event is likely to transpire largely peacefully, a bolstered security presence is liable in the vicinity of the Plaza de la Constitucion. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected in the vicinity of the event during the evening hours, with security cordons likely to be erected ahead of the event on December 1.

Those operating or residing in Mexico City on December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Plaza de la Constitucion during the slated timings.

Peru: SoE declared in Amazonas, Cajamarca, Loreto, San Martin following earthquake on November 29; remain cognizant of updates

President Pedro Castillo announced a State of Emergency (SoE) in the regions of Amazonas, Cajamarca, Loreto, and San Martin on November 29, following the 7.5-magnitude earthquake near Datem del Maranon on November 28. The Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil (Indeci), the federal disaster management agency, has reported 12 wounded and one dead due to the earthquake as of writing. Meanwhile, 25 schools, 32 health establishments, seven bridges, and 1,800 kilometers of highway have been severely damaged, cutting off the supply of thousands of basic goods and services. The SoE mandates that the federal government take over reconstruction and evacuation efforts.

Damage to infrastructure is likely to hinder access to basic goods and services in affected regions and impede vehicular movement to and from the aforementioned areas over the coming days.

Those operating or residing in Peru on November 29 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities updates and allot for disruptions to travel and public services as rescue and evacuation efforts continue.

USA: Pro-choice, pro-life groups slated to hold protests in multiple cities, including Washington, DC on December 1; allot for disruptions

Pro-choice groups will protest in Chicago, IL, and at Pershing Square in Los Angeles, CA at 17:00 (local time) on December 1. In Washington, DC, protests will be held outside the Supreme Court at 08:0 and a march from Columbus Circle to the Supreme Court at 13:00. The demonstrations are being held ahead of the Supreme Court hearing scheduled on December 1 on a case challenging a 2018 Mississippi state law regarding abortion. Separately, pro-life activists will protest outside the Supreme Court in Washington, DC at 08:00.

The demonstrations are liable to witness turnouts in the low-to-high thousands, with the protests in Washington, DC expected to be the largest. Pro-life counter-protests are also likely in the vicinity of the planned protests in Chicago and Los Angeles. Although the demonstrations are likely to transpire without major incidents of unrest, judging by the sensitivity of the protest issue, the potential for isolated scuffles between the protesters from opposing groups remains. A bolstered security presence and traffic disruptions are likely in the protests’ vicinity.

Those operating or residing in the abovementioned cities of the USA on December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations during the slated timings.

Argentina: Protestors set police cars on fire in Santa Rosa, La Palma on November 28; protests against police likely in near term

Protestors in Santa Rosa, La Pampa set three police patrol cars on fire and attacked the sectional sixth police station with stones during a demonstration on November 28, following the alleged murder of a five-year-old Lucio Dupuy, in a domestic dispute. Police officers responded with rubber bullets to disperse the crowd. The victim’s father who led the protest was dismissed by authorities. The incident follows the killing of a 17-year-old by the police in Buenos Aires on November 18, which has prompted protests.

Although the killing of the five-year-old pertained to domestic violence, the violent escalation reflects protestors’ willingness to attack police units and personnel during such protests. Similar attacks on a police station were recorded during protests over the killing of a shop owner in Buenos Aires in October. These incidents highlight increased animosity towards police forces, which have escalated following the November 18 killing of the 17-year-old. With this, there is a high potential for violent protests to recur over the deteriorating security landscape, as well as alleged police brutality and incompetence over the coming weeks.

Ecuador: President Lasso extends state of exception in penitentiary system for 30 days on November 29; prison violence to continue

On November 29, President Guillermo Lasso extended the state of exception in the country’s penitentiary system until December 29. The state of exception, in place since September 29, establishes the involvement of the Armed Forces to assist the police in penitentiary supervision and decrees that inmates will not be able to send or receive correspondence without approval. The measure comes in response to a wave of prison riots that have left 320 dead in 2021. In addition, a state of emergency is also in effect across nine departments until December 19.

Lasso’s decision to extend this decree highlights the government’s efforts to improve security in the country’s penitentiary system. However, it is unlikely to significantly alter the security situation given that the last prison riot occurred with the measure in place. Continuing violence reflects an increase in gang rivalry between Los Choneros and its rivals, including Los Lobos, over the control of the country’s growing trafficking market. With this, violent confrontations in prisons nationwide, especially in Guayaquil, are likely to recur intermittently.

Haiti: 30 gang-related kidnappings recorded in Port-au-Prince between November 26-28; security situation to remain critical

Reports indicate that over 30 registered gang-related kidnappings had been carried in Port-au-Prince between November 26-28. On November 24, the commander-in-chief of the Police Nationale d’Haiti (PNH) announced a decrease in the number of kidnapping cases. However, days later the numbers increased again. The victims have been employees of multinational companies, government authorities, journalists, and members of wealthy families. Local authorities have accused the 400 Mawozo and 5 Segonn gangs of carrying out these crimes.

Given that the PNH has been largely ineffective in combating violent crime in the region, gang activity is unlikely to abate. Furthermore, as evidenced by the case of the abduction of 17 missionaries on October 16, the escalating tactics highlight the increasing impunity with which gangs operate in the country. The surge in kidnappings shortly after the November 24 announcement is indicative of gangs’ continuing influence in the region despite bolstered security deployment in recent weeks. With this, the situation is expected to remain critical, with violent crime targeting foreign nationals and local residents likely to continue being recorded in Port-au-Prince.

Mexico: Alleged operator of Los Chapitos killed by Los Mayos in Sonora on November 29; clashes, violence to increase near term

Juvencio “El Cuate” Romero, an alleged operator of Los Chapitos, a Cartel de Sinaloa (CDS) faction, was killed in San Luis Rio Colorado in Sonora on November 29. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the crime was carried out by an alleged hitman from Los Mayos, a rival CDS faction of Los Chapitos. Following the arrest of Joaquin “Chapo” Guzman, Los Mayos, led by “El Mayo” Zambada, has been involved in an internal rivalry with Los Chapitos, led by Guzman’s son, over CDS leadership.

El Cuate’s killing is reflective of the intensifying internal feud within the CDS in 2021, as evidenced by the clashes between both factions in Sonora in July 2021. Given that security forces were dispatched in Zacatecas to curtail the turf war between Los Mayos and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), Los Mayos is likely to attempt to consolidate its command in Sonora. Given this, clashes between Los Mayos and Los Chapitos over control of the CDS in Sonora are likely to increase, leading to a deterioration of the security landscape in the state in the near-to-medium term.

Croatia & Russia: Inclement weather conditions forecast across multiple regions from November 30-December 2; remain cognizant of updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s weather service, has issued orange alerts, the second-highest in a three-tier scale, for winds in the Middle and South Dalmatia regions in Croatia for November 30. Gidrometcentr Rossii, the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia issued an orange alert, the highest on a three-tier scale for rains and winds in Primorsky Krai until December 2. Additionally, an orange alert has been issued for icy conditions and rains in the Nenets Autonomous District for November 30 and for winds in the Republic of Tatarstan and Samara until 19:00 (local time). Meanwhile, orange alerts have been issued for snow in Khabarovsk Krai and icy conditions and snow in the Republic of Buryatia until December 1. In Krasnodar Krai, orange alerts for coastal events and hazards are in place until 17:00 of December 1. An orange alert has been issued for hazardous weather, including heavy rains and thunderstorms in Sochi until 03:00 of December 2.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions of Croatia on November 30 and Russia until December 2 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates on inclement weather conditions and associated risks.

Europe: Portugal introduces State of Calamity amid concerns over Omicron COVID-19 variant on November 30; remain cognizant of updates

In Belgium, residents in Brussels aged 18 years and above will be eligible for the COVID-19 booster vaccination dose, starting this week. In the Czech Republic, registration for COVID-19 booster vaccination doses began on November 29. France recorded the highest number of hospital admissions with the number of patients in intensive care units increasing by 117 admissions. In Iceland, authorities have introduced stricter entry restrictions amid rising concerns over the Omicron COVID-19 variant. In Norway, authorities have implemented new entry restrictions. In Poland, from December 1-17, individuals traveling from outside the Schengen area will be subject to a 14-day quarantine period and the quarantine period can be reduced upon presentation of a negative PCR test result after the eighth day. Portugal declared a ‘State of Calamity’ due to concerns over the Omicron COVID-19 variant. In Switzerland, authorities have placed Canada, Japan, Nigeria, and Portugal under the list of countries with a variant concern. In Ukraine, authorities have introduced a 14-day quarantine period for those traveling from countries where the Omicron COVID-19 variant has been detected.

Those operating or residing in Europe on November 30 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

Europe: Red, orange alerts issued for inclement weather in multiple countries on November 30; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather agency, has issued red alerts, the highest in a three-tier system for strong winds for Germany’s Erzgebirgskreis district, Saxony and Harz district, Saxony-Anhalt on November 30. Additionally, orange alerts, the second-highest, are in effect for snow and strong winds in multiple German states. In Finland, orange alerts are in effect for snow across the eastern regions until December 1. In France, orange alerts have been issued for floods in the Nord and Pas de Calais departments through December 1. In Greece, orange alerts have been issued for thunderstorms in west and east Peloponnisos, effective through November 30. Separately, in Italy, orange alerts are in effect for strong winds across multiple regions, including Calabria and Sicily, as of November 30. In Spain, the Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) recorded a total of 128 earthquakes over the reactivation of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma, the Canary Islands on November 30. The highest magnitude recorded was 5.0 on the Ritcher Scale, making it the strongest seismic activity since November 17.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Europe on November 30 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. Allot for associated disruptions to travel and services.

France: Act Up-Paris to stage protest march from Place de la Bastille, Paris at 17:30 (local time) on December 1; allot for disruptions

Reports indicate that Act Up-Paris, a civil society organization has called for a protest march to raise awareness about AIDS in Paris on December 1, also designated as World AIDS Day. The march will commence from Place de la Bastille at 17:30 (local time) and will proceed along Rue de la Roquette, Boulevard Menilmontant, Boulevard de Charonne, and Rue de Bagnolet. The march is slated to conclude at 102 Rue de Bagnolet at 20:00.

Based on social media estimates, the slated march is likely to draw turnouts ranging in the low-to-mid hundreds. Although the protest march is likely to transpire peacefully, a bolstered security presence is liable along the route of the march to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are likely along the route of the march from Place de la Bastille to Rue de Bagnolet during the evening hours.

Those operating or residing in Paris on December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel along the route of the march during the evening hours. 

Greece: Public hospital employees will hold protest at Mavili Square in Athens at 08:30 (local time) on December 1; allot for disruptions

The Panhellenic Federation of Public Hospital Employees (POEDIN), supported by the Civil Servants’ Confederation (ADEDY), is slated to hold a demonstration at Mavili Square in Athens at 08:30 (local time) on December 1. Protesters will then march to the Ministry of Finance. The demonstration is being held due to a wage dispute and to ask for recognition of a COVID-19 death as work-related.

Based on the mobilization capabilities of POEDIN, the demonstration is likely to witness a turnout ranging in the high dozens to low hundreds. Although the protest and march are liable to transpire largely peacefully, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of Mavili Square and the Ministry of Finance from the morning hours onwards. Isolated scuffles between protesters and police cannot be ruled out. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations from the morning hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in Athens on December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Mavili Square and the Ministry of Finance from the morning hours onwards due to the slated demonstration.

Poland: Pro-choice protests slated to be held nationwide, including in Warsaw from 18:00 (local time) on December 1; maintain vigilance

Reports indicate that multiple civil society organizations, including Ogolnopolski Strajk Kobiet and Warszawski Strajk Kobiet have called for nationwide protests on December 1. The protests are being held to denounce the government’s decision to introduce a near-total ban on abortion. In Warsaw, the protest will be held outside the Sejm at 18:00 (local time).

Based on the mobilization capabilities of the organizing groups, the protest in Warsaw is likely to draw a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid thousands. Given heightened sentiments over the issue, the protest carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police. In the event of wider unrest, police are liable to resort to forcible dispersal methods including the use of tear gas and water cannons. Police may also conduct arrests to control crowds. As such, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of the Sejm to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to both vehicular and pedestrian traffic can be experienced in the vicinity of the Sejm from the evening hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in Warsaw on December 1 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the Sejm from the evening hours onwards due to the latent potential for unrest.   

Romania: Great Union Day events, freedom protest to be held in Bucharest on December 1; maintain vigilance

Multiple events are slated to take place in Bucharest on December 1 to commemorate Great Union Day. Multiple roads closures are planned Piata Arcul de Triumf’s vicinity between November 29 – December 1 as part of preparations for the events. On December 1, the ceremony will commence at the Monumentul Ostașului Necunoscut at 09:00 (local time), followed by the Military Parade at Piata Arcul de Triumf at 11:00. Additionally, a freedom protest will be held at Piata Universitatii at 14:00, following which a civilian march will be carried out from Palatul Cercului Militar Național to Bulevardul Vasile Milea 4 at 19:00.

Based on social media estimates, the freedom protest is likely to witness a turnout in the mid-to-high hundreds. Given the heightened tensions surrounding COVID-19 measures, the protest carries an elevated potential for unrest. In the event of wider unrest, security forces are likely to resort to forcible dispersal methods. The ceremony, military parade, and march are expected to transpire largely peacefully. Nonetheless, a bolstered security presence is expected throughout Bucharest. Significant disruptions to traffic are likely across Bucharest.

Those operating or residing in Bucharest between November 29 – December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel amid preparations for and the proceedings of national events.

UK: Unionized workers to hold protest at Old Palace Yard in London at 11:00 (local time) on December 1; allot for disruptions

Workers with multiple transport unions, including Unite the Union, will gather at 11:00 (local time) at the Old Palace Yard in London to denounce the funding gap in pensions and wages of transport workers in the capital on December 1. The unions have called for the renewal of long-term, full funding for Transport for London (TfL) workers following the government plans to reduce bus and underground services due to the COVID 19 pandemic.

Based on precedent, the protest is likely to draw a turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds. Although the protests are anticipated to transpire largely peacefully, a bolstered security presence can be expected around the Old Palace Yard as a precautionary measure and to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of the abovementioned location during the slated protest timings.

Those operating or residing in London on December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the Old Palace Yard from the morning hours onwards due to the planned protest.

Belarus & Russia: Minsk plans military drills with Moscow near Ukrainian borders on November 29; likely to escalate tensions with NATO

On November 29, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin announced joint military exercises with Russia along its southern border with Ukraine in response to NATO’s alleged new military deployments in countries to the west and south of Belarus. Khrenin stated that the drills will be held in the “medium-term” without specifying any date. Additionally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Minsk would join Moscow in the event that the conflict with Ukraine escalates into warfare. On November 29, Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks called for a permanent US military presence in the country.

The planned exercise reiterates Lukashenko’s attempts to promote closer military integration with and demonstrate Minsk’s sustained support for its close ally Moscow amid tensions surrounding the alleged Russian military buildup near Ukraine. Given Moscow’s troop deployment and military reinforcement in Yelnya, east of Belarus, the development is likely to elevate tensions amid concerns of Russia using the border with Belarus to stage a military intervention into Ukraine. As such, the drills are likely to prompt NATO to undertake counter-military exercises with Ukraine in the near-to-medium term.

Sweden: S/SAP leader Magdalena Andersson re-elected as PM on November 29; political uncertainty expected to continue

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S/SAP) leader Magdalena Andersson was elected as PM for the second time following a parliamentary vote on November 29. While 101 parliamentarians voted for her, 173 voted against, and 75 abstained from voting. Under Swedish law, Andersson needed an absolute majority or less than 175 MPs voting against her. On November 24, she stepped down as PM after the governing coalition of S/SAP and Green’s (MP) budget was defeated in parliament. Currently, the right-wing opposition parties, including the Sweden Democrats (SD), collectively hold 174 seats in parliament.

Andersson’s confirmation was expected as MP and Left Party (V) had indicated support for her PM candidature, given the Center Party (C) stated it would abstain and the opposition has less than 175 votes. With Andersson expected to lead a minority government, having 100 of the 349 seats in parliament, the party is expected to face difficulties in passing legislation, with protracted talks and several concessions likely on policies to gain consensus. With the above, Sweden is likely to witness political uncertainty in the near to medium term.

Sweden: Several injured, one hospitalized in altercation in Gamlegarden, Kristianstad on November 28; likely premeditated, gang-related

Police responded to a large fight in the Gamlegarden neighborhood of Kristianstad during the afternoon hours (local time) on November 28. Several people were injured, including one individual who sustained stab wounds. One suspect has since been arrested. Police stated that the altercation was likely premeditated, with the incident being investigated as attempted murder. Gamlegarden is classified by authorities as a ‘vulnerable area’, characterized by high crime rates and low-socioeconomic development.

Considering that police are investigating the incident as attempted murder, coupled with the fact that the fight involved several individuals, it was likely related to an ongoing gang rivalry. That several gangs operate in Gamlegarden supports this. Moreover, considering that the altercation took place in a public space during the afternoon hours suggests it posed a potential threat to bystanders, reiterating the risk of spillover violence related to gang activity. This is supported by a gang-related shooting on August 3, which left three bystanders injured. Given the deteriorating security situation in Gamlegarden, similar violent incidents are likely going forward, including shootings and stabbings.

Ukraine: Zelensky dismisses SBU counterintelligence chief on November 29; likely related to probe into Russia-linked paramilitary group

President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree on November 29 dismissing the head of the Counterintelligence Department of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Oleksandr Rusnak. No reason was given for Rusnak’s expulsion in the decree. Rusnak was a major general in the SBU and had been head of counterintelligence since September 2019. Rusnak’s departure comes after Zelensky unveiled an alleged coup attempt planned for December 1 linked to oligarch Rinat Ahkmetov on November 26, which the SBU is currently investigating.

Although no reason for the dismissal has been announced, it is likely that Zelensky held personal grievances with the line of investigation being adopted by the SBU under Rusnak in the current probe into the alleged anti-government coup and an additional SBU-led investigation into the postponement in detention of Russian-affiliated paramilitary members in 2020. Zelensky is liable to appoint someone he finds more reliable to present a situation of political stability to the West as reports indicate a Russian military buildup near Ukraine’s border. Further leadership changes are likely in the near term as Zelensky continues to attempt to consolidate power.

December 1 

• Portugal: Independence Restoration Day 
• Romania: National Day 

December 3 

• Argentina: Healthcare workers to protest in Buenos Aires 
• Greece: Union protest in Athens 
• Italy: Public transport workers to strike in Rome 

December 4 

• Denmark: Protest to be held in Copenhagen

December 6 

• Belgium: Protest, strike in Brussels 
• Finland: Independence Day 
• Spain: Constitution Day 

December 8 

• Albania: National Youth Day  
• Panama: Mother’s Day 
• Regionwide: Immaculate Conception Day 

December 9 

• Antigua and Barbuda: Vere Cornwall Bird Snr. Day 

December 10 

• Luxembourg: Pro-human rights march in Luxembourg City 

December 11 

• Switzerland: Nationwide demonstrations against femicides 

December 13 

• Saint Lucia: National Day