The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Americas 

• Argentina: PSA conducted raids against criminal group in Santa Fe province on September 24; operations against organized crime to continue 
• Colombia: Five killed, six injured in attack on nightclub in Llorente, Narino on September 26; similar incidents to recur in near term 
• Panama: CONUSI to stage protest in front of Ministry of Labor from 14:00 (local time) in Panama City on September 28; maintain vigilance 

Europe 

• Germany: SPD wins federal elections on September 26; prolonged coalition talks expected, traffic light, Jamaica coalitions likely outcomes 
• Kosovo & Serbia: Belgrade puts military on high alert amid tensions with Pristina on September 26; reiterates deteriorating border situation 
• Netherlands: Road closures planned on A12 motorway sections from 21:00 (local time) on September 27 until October 7; allot for disruptions 

Americas: Canada permits entry of flights from India as COVID-10 immunization drives continue on September 27; remain cognizant of updates 

Canada lifted a month-long ban on passenger flights from India on September 26. However, all travelers from India will be required to present a negative COVID-19 test result upon arrival in the country. Additional details regarding travel-related requirements can be found here. In Ecuador, the Minister of Public Health Ximena Garzon announced that children over the age of five years will be eligible for a vaccination against COVID-19 from the second week of October with dates yet to be confirmed. In Jamaica, on September 26, PM Andrew Holness announced that a new verification system for vaccination against COVID-19 will be introduced following the UK government’s decision that the vaccination status of Jamaicans traveling to the UK will not be recognized. 

Those operating or residing in the Americas on September 27 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures. 

Colombia: CUT calls for nationwide anti-government protests, including in Bogota on September 28; avoid nonessential travel 

The Central Unitaria de Trabajadores (CUT) has called for nationwide demonstrations against policies on public health, agriculture, and labor and pension reforms on September 28. In Bogota, a march will be held from Parque Nacional to Plaza de Bolivar from 09:00-14:00 (local time). Protests will also be held in Cali at Plazoleta San Francisco and in Antioquia at an unconfirmed location.  

Based on precedent, the slated demonstrations are likely to draw turnouts ranging in the low-to-mid thousands each, with the demonstration in Bogota likely to be the largest. Given the prevalent anti-government sentiments, heightened levels of unrest can be expected during the protests, with clashes likely to ensue between the protesters and security personnel. As such, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of the protest locations and in major public spaces in Bogota and other urban centers. In the event of a wider escalation of unrest, security forces are liable to use tear gas, rubber bullets, and water cannons, and conduct mass arrests. Significant disruptions to traffic are likely in the vicinity of all protests.  

Those operating or residing in Bogota and other major urban centers on September 28 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of all protests due to the elevated potential for unrest.   

Panama: CONUSI to stage protest in front of Ministry of Labor from 14:00 (local time) in Panama City on September 28; maintain vigilance 

Reports indicate that workers associated with multiple trade unions led by the Confederacion Nacional de Unidad Sindical (CONUSI) have called for a protest in Panama City on September 28. Protesters are expected to gather in front of the Ministry of Labor at Edison Square from 14:00 (local time). Workers will be demanding better working conditions and welfare measures amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. 

Based on the mobilization capacity of the groups involved and recent protests, the demonstration is expected to witness a turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds. Given heightened sentiments over the protest issue, the demonstration carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of low-level scuffles between protesters and police officers. Security officers are liable to use forcible methods of dispersal in the event of widespread unrest. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed in the vicinity of the protest location to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the Ministry of Labor from the afternoon hours onwards. 

Those operating or residing in Panama City on September 28 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the latent potential for unrest and allot for traffic disruptions in the vicinity of Ministry of Labor from the afternoon hours. 

Paraguay: Sinamed to hold nationwide strike, associated protest at Congreso Nacional in Asuncion, on September 28-29; allot for disruptions 

Doctors associated with the Sindicato Nacional de Medicos de Paraguay (Sinamed) union have called for a nationwide strike on September 28-29. The strike has been called to demand that a regulation limiting work shifts to 12 hours a day apply to doctors nationwide, rather than only physicians working at hospitals. An estimated 4,000 doctors are expected to participate in the strike. Additionally, Sinamed members will hold a protest outside the Palacio del Congreso Nacional in Asuncion on September 29. Details on the timing of the protest remain unconfirmed.  

Based on organizers’ estimates, the planned work stoppage is expected to result in widespread disruptions to health services nationwide, although emergency services are unlikely to be impacted. Based on precedent, the protest on September 29 is liable to draw a turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds. While the protest is expected to transpire peacefully, a bolstered security presence is expected outside the Congreso Nacional as a precautionary measure. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic, as well as public transportation, are anticipated in the vicinity of the protest location.  

Those operating or residing in Paraguay on September 28-29 are advised to allot for disruptions to medical services due to the labor action. Those operating or residing in Asuncion on September 29 are advised to allot for disruptions in the vicinity of the Congreso Nacional.  

Argentina: PSA conducted raids against criminal group in Santa Fe province on September 24; operations against organized crime to continue 

The Policia de Seguridad Aeroportuaria (PSA) carried out 36 simultaneous raids against a criminal organization dedicated to laundering proceeds from drug trafficking and cigarette smuggling in Salta and Santa Fe provinces, including the city of Rosario, on September 24. Five individuals were arrested during the raids and around two million USD was seized along with 27 vehicles. The PSA investigation into the unnamed criminal organization began in 2019 and comes as the Argentine national government has sent security reinforcements to Rosario in recent months. 

The PSA operation indicates a continuing focus of Argentine security authorities on cracking down on criminal organizations active in the Rosario area. Given statements by Santa Fe province Minister of Security Jorge Lagna following the raids, it is highly likely that further operations will be conducted in the near term. Although there has been an added focus on security in the Rosario area, bolstered by national security reinforcements, violent crime, such as homicides, are expected to persist for the foreseeable future as criminal organizations still maintain significant influence in low socioeconomic neighborhoods. 

Colombia: Five killed, six injured in attack on nightclub in Llorente, Narino on September 26; similar incidents to recur in near term 

On September 26, five individuals were killed and six injured in an armed attack on a nightclub in Llorente near Tumaco in Narino. Reports indicate that armed individuals arrived outside the nightclub in their vehicle and fired shots indiscriminately at individuals inside the nightclub. According to police estimates, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident group Urias Rondon was behind the attack. 

The incident highlights the increased insecurity posed to locals in the region, which remains conducive for the transnational operations of the drug trafficking groups. Given the spread of the ongoing turf wars across the region as well as the modus operandi of the attack, the shooting was likely targeted against the rival gang members. With this, however, the indiscriminate fire at the location could also be a move by the dissident group to also demonstrate their presence in the region amid the crackdown. Thus, the overall threat to the locals will remain elevated as incidents such as the above are likely to recur in the department in the near term.  

Bulgaria: Transportation workers to stage two-hour strike, protest nationwide, including in Sofia on September 28; allot for disruptions 

The Confederation of Bus Carriers has called on its workers to stage a two-hour nationwide strike and associated protests to demand that the government provide improved economic support on September 28. In Sofia, protesters will gather at Orlov Most and along the Tsarigradsko shose boulevard at 09:00 (local time) in buses and taxis and will move towards the Parliament. Additionally, private and public bus operators will suspend all inter-city operations from 10:00-12:00 in Burgas, Blagoevgrad and Dobrich, Haskovo, Pleven, Plovdiv, Ruse, Sofia, Varna, Veliko Tarnovo, Vidin, and Yambol. A blockade has also been planned at the border checkpoints of Danube Bridge 2 and Kapitan Andreevo.  

Based on the mobilization capacity of the organizers, the strike is likely to be widely adhered to, while the protests are liable to attract a turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds of vehicles in each city. Although the protest is likely to transpire largely peacefully, a bolstered security presence is likely along the route of the protest, especially in Sofia. Significant disruptions to traffic are liable in the above-mentioned cities during the morning hours.  

Those operating or residing in Sofia and other affected cities on September 28 are advised to allot for travel disruptions due to the slated protest and labor action.   

Europe: Countries amend restrictions as COVID-19 vaccination drives continue regionwide on September 27; remain cognizant of updates 

In Estonia, authorities have revised the list of green, yellow, and red-list countries according to the COVID-19 risk levels, as of September 27. Accordingly, only Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Vatican City will remain on the Green list. Further information can be found here. North Macedonia will begin to administer the third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to individuals above the age of 60, healthcare workers, and immunocompromised individuals on September 27. In Russia, authorities in Kalmykia have extended the existing regionwide restrictions, including the mask and social distancing requirements until October 24. 

Those operating or residing in Europe on September 27 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines, travel restrictions, and health procedures. 

Germany: Feminist, pro-choice organizations to hold protests in support of abortion rights nationwide on September 28; allot for disruptions 

Various institutions and activists, including pro-choice and feminist organizations, will hold demonstrations in support of abortion rights nationwide on September 28. The demonstrations are being held under the banner “150 Jahre Widerstand gegen §218 – Es reicht!” (150 Years of Resistance Against §218 – Enough!). Protests will be held across multiple regions including Berlin, Cologne, Dresden, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, and Stuttgart. Additionally, protests are also slated to be held in smaller cities and towns nationwide throughout the day.  

Based on organizers’ mobilization capabilities and social media interest, the demonstrations are likely to witness varying turnouts ranging from the mid-dozens to low-hundreds each. The protests in Berlin and Cologne are liable to see the largest attendances. Although the demonstrations are likely to transpire largely peacefully, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of the protest locations in order to ensure participant safety and adherence to COVID-19 guidelines. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected in the vicinity of the abovementioned protest locations for the duration of the slated timings. 

Those operating or residing in Germany on September 28 are advised to allot for disruptions in the vicinity of the aforementioned protest locations during the slated timings. 

Netherlands: Road closures planned on A12 motorway sections from 21:00 (local time) on September 27 until October 7; allot for disruptions  

According to reports, sections of the A12 motorway between Oudenrijn and Nieuwerbrug will be closed between 21:00 (local time) on September 27 until 05:00 on October 7 due to road works. Works are also planned between Nieuwerbrug and Reeuwijk. However, not all lanes will be closed off. An alternative detour route will be set in place for traffic from Utrecht to The Hague via the A2, A9, and A4. Traffic in the direction of Utrecht can pass via the A2, A27, and A15. Authorities reportedly anticipate serious traffic disruptions during the period of the road works.  

Those operating or residing in the Netherlands between September 27 and October 7 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel and seek alternate routes due to the abovementioned road closures.    

Ukraine: Power outages to affect multiple localities in Odessa on September 27-28; allot for disruptions  

Reports indicate that a power distribution company has scheduled a series of power outages in Odessa to carry out maintenance work on September 27-28. The power outages are part of routine maintenance operations carried out by the power distribution company. The length and timing of the power outages vary by locality. Details regarding locations and times can be found here. 

Those operating or residing in Odessa on September 27-28 are advised to allot for disruptions to services due to the ongoing power outages and remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding the planned maintenance work. 

Belarus: Chorny Busel attack OMON in Minsk with incendiary materials on September 25; targeted attacks on federal, security units to recur 

According to September 25 reports, members of the anarchist group Chorny Busel, part of a resistance movement against President Alexander Lukashenko, dropped two containers with incendiary mixtures on a Special Purpose Police Detachment (OMON) building in Minsk. The group posted on their social media channel that the attack was a retaliatory operation against the police. Further, the group warned that other facilities of the Internal Ministry and law enforcement will remain potential targets of attacks in the future. 

The incident is reflective of the uptick in attacks against government facilities and law enforcement units, as evidenced by the attack on a military shooting range in the Mogilev region on September 24. With the Lukashenko administration continuing to suppress opposition and media dissent including the closure of Belarus’ largest independent media organization, targeted attacks by anarchist groups in response to alleged ‘undemocratic’ acts are likely to increase going forward. With this and the group’s warnings against the Internal Ministry, authorities are expected to bolster security measures in the vicinity of all federal, law enforcement, and defense facilities in the near-to-medium term.  

Germany: SPD wins federal elections on September 26; prolonged coalition talks expected, traffic light, Jamaica coalitions likely outcomes 

Germany’s federal elections took place on September 26, with preliminary results indicating that there was little between the two largest parties. The center-left Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) won the largest share of the vote with 25.7 percent, while the center-right Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands and Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern union (CDU/CSU) received 24.1 percent. Current Finance Minister and SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz will attempt to form a government. If unsuccessful, the mandate will go to CDU/CSU candidate Armin Laschet. 

Given the results, coalition talks are expected to be prolonged, with the next coalition needing the support of both the Greens and Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP). With that, Scholz would need to successfully form a “traffic light” coalition (SPD-Green-FDP), while Laschet would need to form a “Jamaica” coalition (CDU/CSU-Green-FDP). Considering that the FDP and the Greens have agreed to begin exploratory talks with each other before formal negotiations, the next government is set to come down to whether the SPD or CDU/CSU can meet the FDP and the Greens’ joint demands, which will likely include certain ministerial positions and policies.  

Kosovo & Serbia: Belgrade puts military on high alert amid tensions with Pristina on September 26; reiterates deteriorating border situation 

Serbian Defense Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic has stated that the military units have been put on combat readiness near the border with Kosovo following orders from President Aleksandar Vucic. On September 26, Serbian army planes reportedly flew over the Jarinje border crossing, where Kosovo forces are currently deployed. Stefanovic was accompanied by Russian ambassador Aleksandar Bocan-Harchenko on his visit to monitor the military deployment. The developments follow Pristina’s new license plates restrictions on Serbian vehicles entering from the border crossings in Northern Kosovo.  

The developments highlight the significant deterioration of tensions between Pristina and Belgrade, with EU-mediated dialogue yielding limited progress to resolve the ongoing dispute. Serbia’s deployment of military forces near the border is likely to prompt NATO to play an active role in mediating the dispute, evidenced by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s statement demanding unconditional withdrawal of Kosovo and Serbian forces from the border. Given this, the heightened tensions are likely to elevate the potential for unrest and violence in Serb-majority towns in North Kosovo, in addition to the ongoing blockade of border crossings causing severe disruptions. 

UK: Government takes measures amid ongoing supply-chain disruptions, shortages on September 27; panic buying, shortages likely to persist  

On September 27, officials suspended competition laws that regulate oil firms as fuel stations across the country reportedly ran out or faced shortages of fuel following days of panic buying. Authorities announced a visa scheme that will allow 5,000 HGV drivers and 5,500 poultry workers to enter the UK on three-month visas until December 24. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng stated that the government had “long-standing” contingency plans to maintain fuel supplies. Between September 25-26, violent brawls were recorded at petrol stations in London and Chichester.  

Kwarteng’s statement is likely an effort to mitigate panic buying of fuel and goods, supported by a joint statement from multinational oil companies, reiterating that fuel shortages did not cause supply pressures. However, based on previous scenarios, these are likely to increase public concern. The government’s visa scheme is unlikely to alleviate anticipated shortages in goods in the near term, as this plan could potentially take months to achieve. Long lines at fuel stations are likely to continue over the coming weeks, with the potential for unrest and scuffles between frustrated motorists to remain elevated.   

September 28        

• Belgium, France, Germany: Rail disruptions     
• Czech Republic: Czech Statehood Day       

October 1     

• Cyprus: Independence Day     
• Spain: Protests in Barcelona      

October 2     

• Brazil: Nationwide anti-government protests   
• Canada: Protest in Toronto   
• Spain: Protests in Barcelona     
• USA: Rally in LA     

October 3      

• Belgium: Protest in Brussels     
• Germany: German Unity Day     
• Spain: Protest in Barcelona     

October 4     

• Saint Lucia: Thanksgiving Day    

October 5     

• France: Demonstrations by unions   
• Portugal: Republic Day   

October 6   

• Honduras: Semana Morazanica   

October 7   

• Honduras: Semana Morazanica   

October 8    

• Argentina: Public Holiday   
• Ecuador: Guayaquil Independence Holiday   
• Honduras: Semana Morazanica   
• Peru: Battle of Angamos Day  

October 9   

• Ecuador: Guayaquil Independence Day  
• Honduras: Semana Morazanica  

  October 10  

• Cuba: Independence Day 
• Curacao: Curacao Day