The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security.

• Algeria: Employers association boycotts imports of 500 French companies on October 10; comes amid elevated tensions with Paris   
• Algeria: Landmine explosion in Tebessa Province’s El Mezerra wounds two civilians, per October 11 reports; highlights risk in region   
• Iraq: Sadrist Movement set to significantly grow after October 10 parliamentary elections; to challenge Fatah Alliance’s influence
• Syria & UAE: Emirati, Syrian officials agree to boost economic cooperation on October 10; amid growing recognition of Syrian government   
• Tunisia: New 24-member cabinet, including nine women, sworn in on October 11; political tensions to persist   

Algeria: Employers association boycotts imports of 500 French companies on October 10; comes amid elevated tensions with Paris 

The General Assembly of Algerian Contractors (AGEA) which includes 2,000 companies operating in the construction, irrigation, and public works sectors, indicated that the measure is in response to French President Emanuel Macron’s recent remarks. In the statement, the AGEA “thanked” its members for “cutting commercial dealings with 500 French companies”. 

This comes amid a significant deterioration of relations between France and Algeria, particularly following Macron’s remarks that Algeria’s history has been “rewritten”, that it is based on a “discourse of hatred towards France”, and that Algeria is ruled by a “political-military system.” Soon after, Algeria recalled its ambassador to France and closed its airspace to French military aircraft. While the AGEA is officially a non-governmental organization, the involvement of the Algerian government in its step cannot be ruled out. Regardless, the development shows how the feud between the countries may extend to the parties’ economic relations. However, France remains the second-largest trade partner of Algeria. Thus, expanding punitive economic action will also damage Algeria’s own economic interests for which it will have to foster alternative trade relations with other parties. 

Algeria: Landmine explosion in Tebessa Province’s El Mezerra wounds two civilians, per October 11 reports; highlights risk in region 

The explosion reportedly took place on October 9, 75km south of Tebessa near the Tunisian border.  

This incident comes amid infrequent IED attacks in Algeria. These attacks, likely aimed at security forces, highlight the continued presence of militants in northeastern Algeria, especially in the mountainous areas along the Tunisian border. Given that al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility for a similar attack on January 14 that killed 5 civilians in Tebessa, the movement is also likely responsible for the latest explosion. The jihadist movement does not seek to target Algerian civilians as it is constantly trying to recruit popular support by persuasion rather than coercion. Thus the device was likely planted in advance and was intended to defend militant hideouts from security forces. Regardless, since landmines are victim-operated, the incident highlights the persistent risk of collateral damage to civilians, emanating from the use of such devices by militants, particularly in Tebessa. The People’s National Army (ANP) will likely seek to bolster security operations in El Mezerra over the coming days, in order to uncover militant hideouts. 

Iraq: Sadrist Movement set to significantly grow after October 10 parliamentary elections; to challenge Fatah Alliance’s influence 

Muqtada al-Sadr’s led movement is set to win around 70 seats, significantly increasing its power. The pro-Iran Fatah Alliance is projected to lose a substantial number of parliamentary seats. The head of the Fatah Alliance and leader of the Iran-backed Badr Organization, Hadi al-Ameri, rejected the “fabricated” electoral results and vowed to defend their constituency “with full force”.  Al-Sadr called for all weapons in the country to be placed under the control of the state.     

The Sadrist Movement’s electoral performance represents a marked improvement from its 2018 results whereby his coalition won 54 seats. This highlights the significant following and growing influence that al-Sadr commands among the country’s Shiite population, likely at the expense of the Iran-aligned bloc. Al-Sadr’s statements regarding the regulation of arms will likely be perceived as a threat by the Fatah Alliance which retains significant coercive power that is manifested in prominent militias. While the final results are still to be released and political parties set to seek to form parliamentary alliances, tensions between the two movements will be high over the coming days. 

Israel & Palestinian Territories: Water cannon employed to disperse Palestinians in Jerusalem’s Damascus Gate on October 11; reflects tensions 

Police arrested two protesters and detained two others. Palestinian protesters reportedly threw stones at Israeli security forces and passing buses to denounce the alleged desecration of graves by Israeli authorities at a Muslim cemetery in Musrara on October 9. The neighborhood is located approximately one km northwest of the al-Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount Compound.  

This constitutes the third successive night of clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians in Jerusalem’s Old City. Tensions are currently elevated as a result of a recent Israeli court ruling that permitted silent prayer by Jewish worshippers at the al-Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount Compound, which was later reversed. The alleged desecration of Muslim graves, which was circulated on Palestinian social media platforms, further exacerbates these tensions as the destruction of graves is forbidden in Islam. Events in Jerusalem will continue to be a source of tension between the two parties in the coming days and weeks. The Damascus Gate will continue to be a focal point for clashes within this context, and Israeli security forces’ presence at the scene will be bolstered in the coming days. 

Kuwait: 300 workers from unspecified company strike in Farwaniyah Governorate over delayed wages on October 10; labor actions to recur 

Officials from the Public Authority for Manpower (PAM) reportedly contacted the strikers to register the workers’ complaints, related to not receive salaries for more than 3 months and the payment of funds to renew residency. Meanwhile, on October 10, employees from the Ministry of Electricity also held a peaceful demonstration demanding payment of hazard allowances.   

While protests are overall rare in Kuwait, labor action and demonstrations over several issues such as delayed wages and COVID-19 related restrictions are periodically recorded. The recent instances showcase that workers’ grievances span across several sectors and highlight the government’s inability to fully address the socioeconomic grievances of employees, including in the public sector, amid an ongoing liquidity crisis in the country. The swift action from the authority for manpower showcases the authorities’ efforts to somewhat contain and address situations that may be extended into wider strikes. However, feuds between members of the Kuwaiti cabinet and parliament persist, particularly over issues pertaining to budgetary issues and the use of the state’s national funds to resolve economic issues. Thus, grievances in some sectors of the economy will persist. 

Syria: At least five killed, 20 wounded in car bomb attack in Aleppo’s Afrin on October 11; shows persistent instability in area 

This follows the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army’s (SNA) reported artillery shelling against positions of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), including near Afrin as well as the killing of two Turkish police personnel in an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) attack in Aleppo’s Marae on October 10. In the context of persistent tensions between Turkey and its backed forces, on the one side, and Kurdish militant factions, on the other, the latest attack was likely perpetrated by Kurdish militant groups in order to inflict casualties upon and destabilize the authority of Turkish and Turkish-backed forces in the area. The attack highlights the perpetrators’ ability to assemble car bombs with significant damage capacity and insert these devices into the largest towns in the area, such as Afrin city. Turkey often accuses the US-backed Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which forms the major force in the SDF. This enables Ankara to justify attacks against the former in the region, particularly after civilians in Turkish-backed controlled territories are killed. In this context, Turkish-backed major retaliation attacks will be likely in the area over the coming days.   

Syria: UAV strikes reportedly target Iran-backed militia positions near Deir Ezzor’s Albukamal on October 11; Israel involvement likely 

The unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) reportedly struck at least three positions. An unconfirmed report indicated that compounds belonging to the Afghan Liwa Fatemiyoun and the Iraqi Hezbollah al-Nujaba Movement were targeted. 

Strikes against Iran-backed factions occur on a relatively frequent basis in Syria, particularly near Albukamal, situated along the Iraq-Syria border. The location, modus operandi, and target of the attack indicate that Israeli involvement is likely. This is because the border crossing area constitutes a land corridor facilitating Iran’s and its backed factions’ entrenchment in Syria. The area is used for the transfer of weapons and for these factions’ general movement. Israel retains an active interest in hindering their activities, particularly as it believes that they are part of Iran’s general effort to make Syria another active frontline against Israel. This particularly pertains to Liwa Fatemiyoun which in December 2019 released a video where its fighters were pointing to the Israeli-held Golan Heights and stated that the area is their “final goal”. Similar strikes in Albukamal’s area against Iran-backed factions are likely over the coming months. 

Syria & UAE: Emirati, Syrian officials agree to boost economic cooperation on October 10; amid growing recognition of Syrian government 

The UAE’s Ministry of Economy announced an agreement was made with the Syrian Ministry of Economy “to review future plans to enhance economic cooperation and explore new sectors”. The announcement further stated that the UAE maintains a 14 percent share in Syria’s foreign trade and that the parties’ value of non-oil trade exchange for the first half of 2021 stands at 272 million USD.  

The UAE and Syria officially restored ties in late 2018 following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war for which Syria was suspended from the Arab League. Several Arab nations have recently begun rapprochement efforts with the Syrian government, particularly within a US-supported framework to provide Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity to Lebanon through Syria’s infrastructure, which increases Syria’s regional legitimacy. While the UAE already has established economic ties with Syria, the new announcement is reflective of a further growing acceptance of the Bashar al-Assad government, which is likely compounded by an Emirati desire to increase its influence over Syria at the expense of Iran. The parties will likely bolster ties over the coming months. 

Tunisia: New 24-member cabinet, including nine women, sworn in on October 11; political tensions to persist 

Several ministers, including the Foreign and Finance ministers, have been retained, while Tawfiq Sharaf al-Din was appointed Minister of Interior. A majority of the ministers are reportedly bureaucrats with minimal ties to political parties.  

This follows President Saied’s assumption of executive powers and dismissal of the parliament as well as his appointment of Najla Bouden Romdhane as Prime Minister (PM)-designate on September 29. Since segments of Tunisian society perceived these actions to be akin to a “coup”, widespread anti-Saied protests were recorded across the country, most recently on October 10. By reinstating a cabinet, Saied is likely making an effort to deflect criticism from his conduct. His appointment of Sharaf al-Din is notable, as it was the dismissal of al-Din, one of Saied’s closest allies by former PM Hichem Mechichi in January that triggered a dispute between the latter and Saied. Al-Din’s appointment combined with the retainment of ministers from the Saied-imposed interim government highlights Saied’s efforts to put in power officials that are close to him. This will continue to fuel political grievances by his critics in the coming weeks. 

Turkey & Syria: Three mortar shells land in Turkey’s Karkamis on Turkey-Syria border on October 11; highlights risk to Turkish border towns 

Turkey’s official news agency reported that the shells caused material damage to three areas in Gaziantep Province’s Karkamis, located on the Turkey-Syria border. No casualties were reported. Several mortar shells also reportedly targeted Syria’s al-Dabis village, located near Aleppo’s Jarabulus, within 15 km of Karkamis. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) media denied involvement in either incident.  

Attacks against Turkish-linked interests and personnel occur frequently around Turkish rebel-held areas in northern Syria, including near Aleppo’s Jarabulus. These generally include armed hostilities between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurdish-dominated SDF, as well as Kurdish militant-perpetrated attacks within both SDF and Turkish-rebel-held territory. The spillover of shelling into Turkey is more rare. Regardless of the perpetrator of the recent attacks, this demonstrates that the persistent volatility in Syria’s border region with Turkey risks expanding toward Turkish border towns. Despite the SDF’s denial, Turkey constantly blames the Kurdish-dominated group of being responsible for such attacks. Thus, the chances for retaliatory attacks by Turkey or its backed forces in the areas surrounding Jarabulus will be greater in the coming hours and days. 

October 14 

• Yemen: Liberation Day 

October 15 

• Tunisia: Evacuation Day 

• Iran: Martyrdom of Hasa al-Askari 

• Israel: “Slut Walk” TLV 

October 18 

• MENA: Al-Mouled Al-Nabawy 

October 19 

• MENA: Al-Mouled Al-Nabawy 

October 23 

• Libya: Liberation Day 

October 24 

• Iran: Birthday of Prophet Muhammad/Imam Sadegh