15
Sep 2021
13:12 UTC

MAX – MENA Region Daily Summary – September 15, 2021

The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Highlights of the Day

  • Egypt: US withholds 130 million USD military aid, per September 13 report; US effort to pressure Egypt to uphold human rights 
  • Egypt & Israel: President Sisi, PM Bennett hold talks in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh on September 13; marks first meeting since 2011 
  • Libya: LNA forces, Chadian militiamen clash around southern Libya’s Tarbu area on September 14; LNA’s effort to project power in region 
  • Morocco: DGSN dismantles IS cell plotting attack in Draa Tafilalet’s Errachidia on September 14; shows latent threat of militancy 
  • Yemen: Protesters storm Aden’s al-Masheeq Presidential Palace on September 14; high civil unrest to persist in city over coming days 

Actionable Items

Morocco: Contractual teachers to hold sit-in protests in Rabat-Sale-Kenitra on September 15-16, 23-25; maintain heightened vigilance  

Contractual teachers called a nationwide strike including sit-in protests in Rabat-Sale Kenitra and Beni-Mellal Khenifra on September 15 and 16. Additional strikes and sit-ins have been organized between September 23-25, with the participation of teachers from Casablanca-Settat et Fes-Meknes. The strikers are demanding the integration of contractual teachers as public employees. 

These demonstrations come amid long-standing grievances held by contractual teachers against the Moroccan government based on perceived low wages, lack of health care, pensions, and job security for any contractual teacher. These grievances occasionally prompt strikes and protests across the country, which periodically devolve into limited scuffles with security forces using riot dispersal measures, especially when protests occur in Rabat, as seen outside the Education Ministry on March 16. Given precedent, these protests are likely to garner relatively high turnouts, potentially numbering in the high dozens to mid-hundreds. Protesters are likely to gather outside government institutions, particularly the Ministry of Education in Rabat. In such a scenario, security forces may seek to disperse the protesters, which may lead to lead to the localized clashes between protesters and security forces. 

Those operating or residing in Rabat on September 15-16 and 23-25 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of educational establishments, and other key government buildings, including the Ministry of Education building, due to the potential for demonstrations involving education sector workers. 

 

Saudi Arabia: Authorities announce new entry measures from September 16; adhere to government instructions  

The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) announced that incoming travelers who received at least a dose of Saudi approved COVID-19 vaccines are allowed to enter provided that they submit a negative PCR test taken 72 hours before the flight. They must undergo institutional quarantine for five days. They are also required to take a PCR test within 24 hours upon arrival and on the fifth day. The same rule applies to passengers inoculated with at least a dose of vaccines neither approved by Saudi Arabia or by the World Health Organization (WHO). Unvaccinated individuals below 18 years old traveling with fully vaccinated relatives are also subject to a five-day home quarantine and are required to present a negative PCR test on the fifth day. Travelers who are 18 years old and above must undergo institutional quarantine procedures starting September 23. Furthermore, individuals who have received Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, which are currently not approved in Saudi Arabia, are required to get a booster dose from one of the vaccines available in the Kingdom after arrival. 

Those planning to travel to Saudi Arabia from September 16 and over the coming weeks are advised to remain apprised of government updates with regards to mandatory PCR testing and vaccination requirements as well as quarantine regulations to ensure business continuity. 

Notable Events

Egypt: US withholds 130 million USD military aid, per September 13 report; US effort to pressure Egypt to uphold human rights 
The withheld amount will be released if the Egyptian government “affirmatively” addresses human rights concerns. The remaining 170 million of the allotted 300 million USD in military financing for Egypt will be released to implement programs related to border security and counter-militancy.  
The US has provided 1.3 billion USD in aid to Egypt annually since 2017. The placing of conditions on a portion of the assistance highlights the US President Joe Biden-administration’s focus on human rights as part of its foreign policy doctrine and the use of penalties to pressure its strategic partners, such as Egypt, to improve its dismal human rights record. This is however unlikely to cause the reversal of the Egyptian government’s ongoing crackdown on civil and political activists in the country perceived to be indulging in subversive activities. Parallelly, the delivery of funds for security-related issues shows that Washington continues to view Cairo as a strategic partner and prioritizes the stabilization of Egypt’s security environment. While the move is unlikely to significantly strain US-Egypt relations, Cairo will likely seek to diversify its alliances over the coming months.  
 

Egypt & Israel: President Sisi, PM Bennett hold talks in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh on September 13; marks first meeting since 2011  

Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Naftali Bennett and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed economic, security, and diplomatic issues. The Israeli government termed the meeting “very important” that has created a “foundation for deep ties in the future”. Bennett praised Egypt’s role in maintaining the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.  

This is the first instance of direct high-level diplomatic engagement between both countries since former Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu met then Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in 2011. It shows a significant thaw in the bilateral relationship that had been strained under Netanyahu, and the willingness of both leaders to hold talks over common security and economic issues. This is particularly because of Egypt’s role in mediating ceasefires between Israel and Hamas during periods of heightened hostilities in the Gaza Strip, including during the 11-day conflict in May. Egypt also likely seeks to leverage its strengthened ties with Jerusalem to raise its profile with the US amid criticism regarding Cairo’s human rights records. Both leaders will attempt to capitalize on the growing positive momentum to increase bilateral engagement in the coming months. 

   

Libya: LNA forces, Chadian militiamen clash around southern Libya’s Tarbu area on September 14; LNA’s effort to project power in region  

The Libyan National Army’s (LNA) Tariq Bin Ziyad Brigade conducted an operation against Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) militiamen in Tarbu, located roughly 300 km north of the Libya-Chad border and 140 km southeast of Sebha. Several casualties were reported.    

Chadian militias have been constantly exploiting the porous borders and lack of governance in southern Libya to infiltrate the border, and take refuge within southern Libyan territory. Since the LNA took Libya’s southern Fezzan Region in 2019, it has been dedicating efforts to exert its authority and dislodge such groups, including by conducting airstrikes against these militias over the past two years. The latest development highlights the LNA’s continued effort to project itself as the sole and legitimate military authority capable of confronting the threat that prominent Chadian militias pose. However, the development also highlights how the LNA lacks sufficient resources and manpower to effectively monitor and protect the vast swaths of Libya’s porous southern region from these groups. Further clashes may be recorded around Tarbu over the coming days. Such infiltrations will persist over the long term. 

 

Morocco: DGSN dismantles IS cell plotting attack in Draa Tafilalet’s Errachidia on September 14; shows latent threat of militancy 

According to the Ministry of Interior (MoI), the cell’s leader used a shop that he owned to plan attacks, recruit individuals, and spread jihadist propaganda. Morocco’s General Directorate of National Security (DGSN) seized electronic equipment and jihadist materials. The three-militants cell planned to assassinate a public utility service worker.   

This comes amid occasional counter-militancy operations targeting Islamic State (IS)-linked militants or IS-inspired individuals across Morocco. The indication that the group’s leader attempted to recruit individuals and disseminate jihadist propaganda shows IS’s continued efforts to radicalize segments of the local population, particularly in Morocco’s outlying regions where socioeconomic grievances are prominent. The cell likely chose to target the utility service worker due to the role’s affiliation with the state, which is considered “apostate” by the jihadists. The fact that no weapons were seized indicates that the plot was either at the early stages of planning or of low sophistication. However, the assassination of one individual could also be imminently carried out using widely available white weapons. This incident thus reiterates the latent threat of militancy in the country. 

 

Syria: Airstrikes attributed to Russia target Darat Izza in Aleppo Province between September 13-14; Turkish retaliation possible 

According to the reports, the strikes targeted Turkish-backed forces in the area. Darat Izza is located approximately 15 km east of the Turkish border and 25 km northwest of Aleppo city.  

Reports from the past two months indicated that there was an escalation in the airstrikes conducted by the Russian Air Force in northern Idlib and Aleppo provinces. Similar strikes against Turkish-backed rebel forces were also reported in Aleppo’s Afrin District in late August, including against the Turkish-backed Faylaq al-Sham camp. The Russian airstrikes are likely a measure by Moscow to try to balance power relations in the border areas between pro-government forces-controlled areas and areas controlled by Turkish-backed rebels. This particularly pertains to Darat Izza, which is located along Highway 62 which connects Idlib Province and northern Aleppo with Aleppo city, the strategic provincial capital which is under pro-government forces’ control. These airstrikes highlight the fragility of the truce agreement between Russian and Turkey in the area and may lead to Turkish-orchestrated retaliation attacks in these border areas of northern Aleppo. The security situation in the region will remain volatile. 

 

Syria: Airstrikes target Iran-backed militia vehicles near al-Bukamal along Iraq-Syria border on September 14; Israeli involvement likely 

An Iraqi news outlet linked to Iran-backed militias, accused the US of the strikes but then suggested an Israeli responsibility following a denial of involvement in the incident by the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). The report indicated that three trucks and one thermal camera belonging to “our units stationed along the border” were targeted. No casualties were reported.  

This development comes amid occasional strikes against Iran-linked interests in Syria, particularly along the Syria-Iraq border area of al-Bukamal. While the perpetrator of the latest strike remains unknown, Israel’s involvement is indeed highly likely. This is because the al-Bukamal border crossing area with Iraq constitutes Iran’s primary land bridge to Syria and Lebanon. As such, Israel strongly believes that this corridor is used to transfer sophisticated arms by Iran through Iraq, to areas in Lebanon and Syria closer to Israeli territory. The currently attacked trucks were likely perceived to have been part of such an operation. Similar strikes will thus recur. However, they will not diminish Iran’s and its backed factions’ continued operations in Syria’s al-Bukamal area over the coming months. 

 

UAE: Authorities designate 38 individuals, 15 entities on ‘terror list’, per September 13 reports; to raise profile among Western allies  

The list reportedly includes foreign nationals from the UAE, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan. Some of the entities listed are trading and shipping companies.   

While no militant attacks have been recorded in the UAE over recent years, militant organizations have reportedly used the country as a hub for illicit financial activities to fund their activities. Against this backdrop, in February, authorities established an Executive Office for Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Finance to track individuals involved in the financing of militant groups. Thus, the latest decision aligns with the UAE’s efforts to shift its image from that of a safe haven for “terror” financing and to showcase its preemptive approach in cracking down on entities suspected to be involved in destabilizing activities. This further highlights the UAE’s strict intolerance towards such activities, as evidenced by the inclusion of several UAE nationals on the list. Overall, this also signals the UAE’s effort to boost its profile as a major player in the counter-militancy sphere in the Middle East region, partly to strengthen its partnerships with Western allies, such as the US. 

 

Yemen: Protesters storm Aden’s al-Masheeq Presidential Palace on September 14; high civil unrest to persist in city over coming days 

Protesters chanting slogans against the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the Hadi-led government stormed the Presidential Palace, also known as the al-Masheeq Palace to denounce the declining economic situation and lack of key utilities such as electricity. Unconfirmed reports indicate that security forces used live fire to disperse protesters in the palace and in al-Maala District.   

These developments constitute the second consecutive day of high civil unrest in Aden, with tire fires, roadblocks, and the launch of live fire by STC forces to disperse protesters. The storming of the al-Masheeq Palace, which is not unprecedented, constitutes an escalation in the scope of the protest movement given that it shows the demonstrators’ willingness to confront local authorities within the government facility’s compounds. This, in turn, shows the extent of the protesters’ grievances and their frustration with the government. The provision of basic services and the overall improvement of living conditions in Aden will continue to be challenged by the ongoing tensions between the STC and the Hadi-led government. Further violent protests are likely in Aden over the coming days. 

Upcoming Notable Dates

September 15-16 

  • Israel: Yom Kippur 

  

September 16 

  • Libya: Martyrs’ Day 

  

September 20-21 

  • Israel: Sukkot 

  

September 26 

  • Yemen: Revolution Day 

 

September 27 

  • Israel: Simchat Torah 

 

September 28 

  • Iran: Arbaeen 

The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Highlights of the Day

  • Egypt: US withholds 130 million USD military aid, per September 13 report; US effort to pressure Egypt to uphold human rights 
  • Egypt & Israel: President Sisi, PM Bennett hold talks in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh on September 13; marks first meeting since 2011 
  • Libya: LNA forces, Chadian militiamen clash around southern Libya’s Tarbu area on September 14; LNA’s effort to project power in region 
  • Morocco: DGSN dismantles IS cell plotting attack in Draa Tafilalet’s Errachidia on September 14; shows latent threat of militancy 
  • Yemen: Protesters storm Aden’s al-Masheeq Presidential Palace on September 14; high civil unrest to persist in city over coming days 

Actionable Items

Morocco: Contractual teachers to hold sit-in protests in Rabat-Sale-Kenitra on September 15-16, 23-25; maintain heightened vigilance  

Contractual teachers called a nationwide strike including sit-in protests in Rabat-Sale Kenitra and Beni-Mellal Khenifra on September 15 and 16. Additional strikes and sit-ins have been organized between September 23-25, with the participation of teachers from Casablanca-Settat et Fes-Meknes. The strikers are demanding the integration of contractual teachers as public employees. 

These demonstrations come amid long-standing grievances held by contractual teachers against the Moroccan government based on perceived low wages, lack of health care, pensions, and job security for any contractual teacher. These grievances occasionally prompt strikes and protests across the country, which periodically devolve into limited scuffles with security forces using riot dispersal measures, especially when protests occur in Rabat, as seen outside the Education Ministry on March 16. Given precedent, these protests are likely to garner relatively high turnouts, potentially numbering in the high dozens to mid-hundreds. Protesters are likely to gather outside government institutions, particularly the Ministry of Education in Rabat. In such a scenario, security forces may seek to disperse the protesters, which may lead to lead to the localized clashes between protesters and security forces. 

Those operating or residing in Rabat on September 15-16 and 23-25 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of educational establishments, and other key government buildings, including the Ministry of Education building, due to the potential for demonstrations involving education sector workers. 

 

Saudi Arabia: Authorities announce new entry measures from September 16; adhere to government instructions  

The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) announced that incoming travelers who received at least a dose of Saudi approved COVID-19 vaccines are allowed to enter provided that they submit a negative PCR test taken 72 hours before the flight. They must undergo institutional quarantine for five days. They are also required to take a PCR test within 24 hours upon arrival and on the fifth day. The same rule applies to passengers inoculated with at least a dose of vaccines neither approved by Saudi Arabia or by the World Health Organization (WHO). Unvaccinated individuals below 18 years old traveling with fully vaccinated relatives are also subject to a five-day home quarantine and are required to present a negative PCR test on the fifth day. Travelers who are 18 years old and above must undergo institutional quarantine procedures starting September 23. Furthermore, individuals who have received Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, which are currently not approved in Saudi Arabia, are required to get a booster dose from one of the vaccines available in the Kingdom after arrival. 

Those planning to travel to Saudi Arabia from September 16 and over the coming weeks are advised to remain apprised of government updates with regards to mandatory PCR testing and vaccination requirements as well as quarantine regulations to ensure business continuity. 

Notable Events

Egypt: US withholds 130 million USD military aid, per September 13 report; US effort to pressure Egypt to uphold human rights 
The withheld amount will be released if the Egyptian government “affirmatively” addresses human rights concerns. The remaining 170 million of the allotted 300 million USD in military financing for Egypt will be released to implement programs related to border security and counter-militancy.  
The US has provided 1.3 billion USD in aid to Egypt annually since 2017. The placing of conditions on a portion of the assistance highlights the US President Joe Biden-administration’s focus on human rights as part of its foreign policy doctrine and the use of penalties to pressure its strategic partners, such as Egypt, to improve its dismal human rights record. This is however unlikely to cause the reversal of the Egyptian government’s ongoing crackdown on civil and political activists in the country perceived to be indulging in subversive activities. Parallelly, the delivery of funds for security-related issues shows that Washington continues to view Cairo as a strategic partner and prioritizes the stabilization of Egypt’s security environment. While the move is unlikely to significantly strain US-Egypt relations, Cairo will likely seek to diversify its alliances over the coming months.  
 

Egypt & Israel: President Sisi, PM Bennett hold talks in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh on September 13; marks first meeting since 2011  

Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Naftali Bennett and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed economic, security, and diplomatic issues. The Israeli government termed the meeting “very important” that has created a “foundation for deep ties in the future”. Bennett praised Egypt’s role in maintaining the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.  

This is the first instance of direct high-level diplomatic engagement between both countries since former Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu met then Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in 2011. It shows a significant thaw in the bilateral relationship that had been strained under Netanyahu, and the willingness of both leaders to hold talks over common security and economic issues. This is particularly because of Egypt’s role in mediating ceasefires between Israel and Hamas during periods of heightened hostilities in the Gaza Strip, including during the 11-day conflict in May. Egypt also likely seeks to leverage its strengthened ties with Jerusalem to raise its profile with the US amid criticism regarding Cairo’s human rights records. Both leaders will attempt to capitalize on the growing positive momentum to increase bilateral engagement in the coming months. 

   

Libya: LNA forces, Chadian militiamen clash around southern Libya’s Tarbu area on September 14; LNA’s effort to project power in region  

The Libyan National Army’s (LNA) Tariq Bin Ziyad Brigade conducted an operation against Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) militiamen in Tarbu, located roughly 300 km north of the Libya-Chad border and 140 km southeast of Sebha. Several casualties were reported.    

Chadian militias have been constantly exploiting the porous borders and lack of governance in southern Libya to infiltrate the border, and take refuge within southern Libyan territory. Since the LNA took Libya’s southern Fezzan Region in 2019, it has been dedicating efforts to exert its authority and dislodge such groups, including by conducting airstrikes against these militias over the past two years. The latest development highlights the LNA’s continued effort to project itself as the sole and legitimate military authority capable of confronting the threat that prominent Chadian militias pose. However, the development also highlights how the LNA lacks sufficient resources and manpower to effectively monitor and protect the vast swaths of Libya’s porous southern region from these groups. Further clashes may be recorded around Tarbu over the coming days. Such infiltrations will persist over the long term. 

 

Morocco: DGSN dismantles IS cell plotting attack in Draa Tafilalet’s Errachidia on September 14; shows latent threat of militancy 

According to the Ministry of Interior (MoI), the cell’s leader used a shop that he owned to plan attacks, recruit individuals, and spread jihadist propaganda. Morocco’s General Directorate of National Security (DGSN) seized electronic equipment and jihadist materials. The three-militants cell planned to assassinate a public utility service worker.   

This comes amid occasional counter-militancy operations targeting Islamic State (IS)-linked militants or IS-inspired individuals across Morocco. The indication that the group’s leader attempted to recruit individuals and disseminate jihadist propaganda shows IS’s continued efforts to radicalize segments of the local population, particularly in Morocco’s outlying regions where socioeconomic grievances are prominent. The cell likely chose to target the utility service worker due to the role’s affiliation with the state, which is considered “apostate” by the jihadists. The fact that no weapons were seized indicates that the plot was either at the early stages of planning or of low sophistication. However, the assassination of one individual could also be imminently carried out using widely available white weapons. This incident thus reiterates the latent threat of militancy in the country. 

 

Syria: Airstrikes attributed to Russia target Darat Izza in Aleppo Province between September 13-14; Turkish retaliation possible 

According to the reports, the strikes targeted Turkish-backed forces in the area. Darat Izza is located approximately 15 km east of the Turkish border and 25 km northwest of Aleppo city.  

Reports from the past two months indicated that there was an escalation in the airstrikes conducted by the Russian Air Force in northern Idlib and Aleppo provinces. Similar strikes against Turkish-backed rebel forces were also reported in Aleppo’s Afrin District in late August, including against the Turkish-backed Faylaq al-Sham camp. The Russian airstrikes are likely a measure by Moscow to try to balance power relations in the border areas between pro-government forces-controlled areas and areas controlled by Turkish-backed rebels. This particularly pertains to Darat Izza, which is located along Highway 62 which connects Idlib Province and northern Aleppo with Aleppo city, the strategic provincial capital which is under pro-government forces’ control. These airstrikes highlight the fragility of the truce agreement between Russian and Turkey in the area and may lead to Turkish-orchestrated retaliation attacks in these border areas of northern Aleppo. The security situation in the region will remain volatile. 

 

Syria: Airstrikes target Iran-backed militia vehicles near al-Bukamal along Iraq-Syria border on September 14; Israeli involvement likely 

An Iraqi news outlet linked to Iran-backed militias, accused the US of the strikes but then suggested an Israeli responsibility following a denial of involvement in the incident by the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). The report indicated that three trucks and one thermal camera belonging to “our units stationed along the border” were targeted. No casualties were reported.  

This development comes amid occasional strikes against Iran-linked interests in Syria, particularly along the Syria-Iraq border area of al-Bukamal. While the perpetrator of the latest strike remains unknown, Israel’s involvement is indeed highly likely. This is because the al-Bukamal border crossing area with Iraq constitutes Iran’s primary land bridge to Syria and Lebanon. As such, Israel strongly believes that this corridor is used to transfer sophisticated arms by Iran through Iraq, to areas in Lebanon and Syria closer to Israeli territory. The currently attacked trucks were likely perceived to have been part of such an operation. Similar strikes will thus recur. However, they will not diminish Iran’s and its backed factions’ continued operations in Syria’s al-Bukamal area over the coming months. 

 

UAE: Authorities designate 38 individuals, 15 entities on ‘terror list’, per September 13 reports; to raise profile among Western allies  

The list reportedly includes foreign nationals from the UAE, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan. Some of the entities listed are trading and shipping companies.   

While no militant attacks have been recorded in the UAE over recent years, militant organizations have reportedly used the country as a hub for illicit financial activities to fund their activities. Against this backdrop, in February, authorities established an Executive Office for Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Finance to track individuals involved in the financing of militant groups. Thus, the latest decision aligns with the UAE’s efforts to shift its image from that of a safe haven for “terror” financing and to showcase its preemptive approach in cracking down on entities suspected to be involved in destabilizing activities. This further highlights the UAE’s strict intolerance towards such activities, as evidenced by the inclusion of several UAE nationals on the list. Overall, this also signals the UAE’s effort to boost its profile as a major player in the counter-militancy sphere in the Middle East region, partly to strengthen its partnerships with Western allies, such as the US. 

 

Yemen: Protesters storm Aden’s al-Masheeq Presidential Palace on September 14; high civil unrest to persist in city over coming days 

Protesters chanting slogans against the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the Hadi-led government stormed the Presidential Palace, also known as the al-Masheeq Palace to denounce the declining economic situation and lack of key utilities such as electricity. Unconfirmed reports indicate that security forces used live fire to disperse protesters in the palace and in al-Maala District.   

These developments constitute the second consecutive day of high civil unrest in Aden, with tire fires, roadblocks, and the launch of live fire by STC forces to disperse protesters. The storming of the al-Masheeq Palace, which is not unprecedented, constitutes an escalation in the scope of the protest movement given that it shows the demonstrators’ willingness to confront local authorities within the government facility’s compounds. This, in turn, shows the extent of the protesters’ grievances and their frustration with the government. The provision of basic services and the overall improvement of living conditions in Aden will continue to be challenged by the ongoing tensions between the STC and the Hadi-led government. Further violent protests are likely in Aden over the coming days. 

Upcoming Notable Dates

September 15-16 

  • Israel: Yom Kippur 

  

September 16 

  • Libya: Martyrs’ Day 

  

September 20-21 

  • Israel: Sukkot 

  

September 26 

  • Yemen: Revolution Day 

 

September 27 

  • Israel: Simchat Torah 

 

September 28 

  • Iran: Arbaeen