This report reviews notable events this week in the Middle East and North Africa. These include clashes between security forces and protesters in Iran’s Isfahan over the issue of water scarcity, an unprecedented security agreement between Israel and Morocco, the disqualification of 25 candidates in the Libyan presidential elections by the HNEC, the temporary detention of three Norwegian journalists in Qatar, an attempted militant stabbing attack in Tunis, the announcement of an Emirati investment fund in Turkey amid the ongoing devaluation of the lira, and President Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan’s approval of extensive legal reforms in the UAE.

Notable Developments

1. On November 26, clashes were recorded between security forces and protesters, consisting of farmers and other citizens, who had gathered near the Khaju Bridge in Isfahan city, on the dried riverbed of the Zayandeh Rud river.
2. Protests subsequently spread to different parts of the city, with violence reported in various instances.
3. Around 30 protesters were wounded, while Iranian officials claimed to have arrested 67 of the main “rioters”.

ANALYSIS: The issue of water scarcity in Isfahan, which the city’s farming community partially attributes to Iranian authorities’ mismanagement of water diversion and dam-building, has resulted in multiple protests since November 8. A subsequent mass demonstration was held on November 19, with thousands taking part. During these protests, farmers and other citizens gathered at the Zayandeh Rud river to denounce the adverse impact on livelihood brought on by the riverbed’s drought. Iranian security forces first attempted to crack down on these protests by reportedly firing tear gas against protesters camping at the Khaju Bridge and setting fire to tents to clear the area during the overnight hours of November 24-25. This, in addition to the violent clampdown on November 26, is liable to significantly exacerbate grievances. While there has been an absence of violence since November 26, there are high chances for unrest to recur in Isfahan city and for it to spread to other parts of Iran in the coming days as the issue of water shortages is not limited to central Iran.

Notable Developments 

1. On November 24, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz met with his Moroccan counterpart Abdellatif Loudiyi in Rabat and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) pertaining to defense cooperation.
2. Israel’s Ministry of Defense reportedly stated that the agreement includes “formalizing intelligence-sharing” and will allow for ties between “defense industries, defense procurement, and joint exercises”.

ANALYSIS: Benny Gantz’s visit to Rabat constitutes the first time that Israel has signed a defense MoU with an Arab state. The unprecedented security agreement forms part of the ever-warming bilateral ties between Israel and Morocco since the nations’ signing of the normalization agreement in December 2020. This is evidenced by Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid’s inauguration of the country’s diplomatic mission in Morocco on August 11 as well as the September agreement signed by an Israeli firm and the Moroccan government for the rights to explore oil and gas off the coast of Western Sahara’s Dakhla. From a Moroccan perspective, Rabat will seek to capitalize on the latest agreement to upgrade its military capabilities, both offensively and defensively, by purchasing advanced Israeli-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missile defense, and radar systems. Given the sensibilities surrounding the sale of Israeli weapons to Arab states, the development underscores Israel’s perception of Rabat as a reliable economic and defense partner as well as a source of regional stability. Overall, Israel-Morocco ties will continue to strengthen in the coming months.

Notable Developments

1. On November 24, the High National Election Commission (HNEC) disqualified 25 individuals, including Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, from the presidential race.
2. On November 25, Libyan National Army (LNA) forces stormed the Sebha Court.
3. On November 28, the Tripoli Appeals Court accepted appeals filed against Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister (PM) Abdel Hamid al-Dbeibah’s presidential candidacy.

ANALYSIS: These developments come in the lead up to the first round of presidential elections in Libya on December 24. Several prominent political and military figures plan to contest in these elections including former Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi; LNA leader, Khalifa Haftar; former Government of National Accord (GNA) Minister of Interior, Fathi Bashagha; and GNU PM, Abdel Hamid al-Dbeibah. The appeals filed against both Gaddafi and Dbeibah reflect the growing contention for power ahead of these elections as Bashagha and Dbeibah vie for influence in western Libya while Haftar and Gaddafi vie for influence in southern Libya. In this context, the storming of the Sebha Court by LNA forces was a direct action to prevent Gaddafi from appealing his disqualification. This prompted protests in Sebha by his supporters against the LNA’s “siege” on November 29. The political and security situation in Libya will remain tense in the coming weeks, especially in the days leading up to December 24. Although the risk of an outbreak of large-scale armed conflict is not high, there is a potential for localized skirmishes between armed groups with rival political allegiances.

Notable Developments

1. According to reports from November 24, two Norwegian journalists investigating conditions for migrant workers in Qatar were detained for around 30 hours. They returned to Norway on November 30. A spokesperson for the Qatari government stated the journalists were arrested “for trespassing on private property and filming without a permit”.
2. On November 28, a third Norwegian journalist was temporarily detained for allegedly assaulting an individual in a hotel. The journalist previously wrote articles critical of the Qatari government.

ANALYSIS: Arrests of foreign nationals in Qatar are rare, but not unprecedented. In May, a Kenyan blogger who denounced migrant workers’ living conditions in Qatar was arrested. The first two Norwegian journalists were reportedly detained after reporting on the conditions of migrant workers during a live report and planned to meet with the imprisoned former communication director for the World Cup 2022 organizers who criticized the alleged abuse of migrant workers by the Qatari authorities. Thus, the detentions point to an effort by the Qatari government to prevent critical reporting. This is given that the alleged maltreatment of migrant workers has elevated global criticism of Doha’s labor policies and resulted in periodic protests by these workers. Qatar likely seeks to prevent the risk of reputational damage ahead of the World Cup 2022, which it aims to utilize as a platform to bolster its international standing. Overall, this shows the Qatari authorities’ resolve to detain individuals, including foreigners, perceived as working against the country’s interests. As the Qatari authorities will maintain strict intolerance of any dissent, further arrests of critics, particularly journalists and media personalities, may be recorded over the coming months.

Notable Developments

1. On November 26, security forces identified a “suspicious” individual carrying a bag outside the Ministry of Interior (MoI) building on Tunis’ Habib Bourguiba Avenue who pulled out a bladed weapon when confronted.
2. The individual jumped a barricade into the MoI building, brandished a cleaver and shouted “Allahu Akbar” while referring to security forces as “infidels.” Security forces shot the individual in the leg and arrested him.

ANALYSIS: There is an underlying threat of militancy in Tunisia, as evidenced by frequent nationwide counter-militancy operations. However, militant attacks have been rare, with the last such incident occurring in Sousse in September 2020 and the last such incident in Tunis in March 2020. The latest event is therefore notable due to both the location and the rarity of such events. The characteristics of the incident indicate that it was a “lone-wolf” attack rather than being directed by an organized group, such as the Islamic State (IS). This is because the individual utilized crude weaponry, showing a low degree of sophistication. However, most “lone-wolves” are radicalized by jihadist groups’ propaganda. Such a scenario is likely due to the militant’s declaration of “Allahu Akbar” and branding of security forces as “infidels”, which is rhetoric frequently espoused by IS. Regardless, IS is unlikely to claim this attack due to its unsuccessful nature and low-sophisticated. Security forces will interrogate the individual to ascertain whether he was acting alone or as part of a larger group. Overall, an increased deployment of security forces on Habib Bourguiba Avenue is likely over the coming weeks following the incident.

Notable Developments:

1. On November 24, the UAE announced a ten billion USD fund for investments in Turkey.
2. On November 29, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed a desire to improve ties with Israel and Egypt.
3. Between November 24-29, anti-government protests were recorded across Turkey to denounce the devaluation of the Turkish lira against the USD.

ANALYSIS: At the time of writing, the Turkish lira has dropped to a record low of 13.57 against the USD. The lira has lost more than 40 percent of its value against the USD since the beginning of 2021. This can largely be attributed to President Erdogan’s preferred monetary policy of reducing interest rates, which he has persistently pressured Turkey’s Central Bank to implement despite the increases to inflation and devaluation of the local currency. The rise in the price of goods has elevated Turks’ socio-economic grievances, as evidenced by the nationwide protests. In this context, the investment agreement signed between the UAE and Turkey is aimed at boosting investor confidence in the Turkish markets and stabilizing the currency. This is also a notable step as the two countries are affiliated with opposing geopolitical camps. The UAE is staunchly opposed to political Islam, while Ankara has extended support to Muslim Brother-affiliated actors. Erdogan’s willingness to reach out to other US-aligned states, Israel and Egypt, points to a recognition that alienation from the West has economic and politically undermined Ankara. Regardless, Erdogan’s continued intervention in monetary policy and the broader global market volatility will exacerbate the devaluation of the lira. Further protests are thus likely over the coming weeks.

Notable Developments

1. On November 27, President Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan approved the update of more than 40 laws with the objective of “enhancing the economic environment, investment, and commercial infrastructure”.
2. The regulations pertain to several fields, including trade, industry, property and copyright, cyber-crime, labor regulations, electronic transactions, and residency.

ANALYSIS: This is the first time that the government of UAE has undertaken such extensive legal reforms targeting various sectors and comes amid its ongoing efforts to modernize the country’s socio-political and economic spheres. Similarly, on November 16, authorities launched a five-year multi-entry visa for employees of multinational companies. All these reforms collectively highlight the UAE’s efforts to attract skilled foreign workers and investments in order to position itself as an economic hub in the Gulf region amid increased competition from countries like Saudi Arabia. The new regulations were approved by the President but also encouraged by the UAE’s Federal Supreme Council, which oversees the sanctioning of federal legislation. This highlights the coordinated drive within different branches of power to increase the country’s attractiveness to foreign investors and entrepreneurs. One of the laws that were ratified was the Federal Crime and Punishment Law to ensure better protection for women and domestic workers in the country. This is because issues such as women’s rights and treatment of domestic workers have been long-standing contentious matters in the UAE and the wider Gulf region. Therefore, this legal overhaul will be perceived favorably by Western and Asian countries and bolster the UAE’s international standing. These factors will continue to drive further such legislation over the coming months.

• Algeria: A low voter turnout was recorded at the municipal and provincial elections that were held on November 27. The combined voter turnout for the Communal People’s Assemblies (APC) was 35.97 percent, and the combined voter turnout for the Wilaya People’s Assemblies (APW) was 34.39 percent.

• Iran: On November 24, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director stated that no agreement was reached with Iran on access to its nuclear sites.

• Iraq: On November 27, Islamic State (IS) militants detonated an explosive against a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) forces (Peshmerga) vehicle in Diyala’s Kulajo, which resulted in the killing of five Peshmerga personnel.

• Jordan & Israel: On November 26, thousands of Jordanians protested in Amman against a water-energy exchange deal between Jordan and Israel.

• Syria: The US alleviated restrictions on NGO operations and transactions in Syria on November 24.

• Syria: The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) General Security Service (GSS) announced on November 25 the arrest of a government-linked cell involved in sabotage attacks in Idlib. The agency also published photos of the two arrestees.

• Yemen & Saudi Arabia: On November 30, Saudi-led coalition strikes targeted several locations in Sanaa. Reports indicated that the strikes targeted a “secret” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) site in Sanaa.

• December 2-3: The Fifth Lebanon International Oil & Gas Summit will occur at Lebanon’s Hilton Beirut Habtoor Grand Hotel.

• December 4: Saudi Arabia will permit direct entry for travelers from all countries who received at least one dose of a recognized COVID-19 vaccine.

• December 3-5: The Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix will take place in Jeddah’s Corniche Circuit. The event will cause traffic disruptions due to road closures and diversions.

• December 6-8: Morocco’s National Coordination of National Education Ministry employees have announced their intention to hold a general strike. They are also planning to protest in Rabat. The location and date are yet to be announced.

• December 7-8: The North Africa Trade Finance Summit will be held in Egypt’s capital Cairo.