Protest

04
Aug 2021
13:15 UTC

Nigeria Tactical: #RevolutionNow activists slated to hold nationwide protests on August 5; avoid nonessential travel

Please be advised

  • According to official publications on social media, activists from the #RevolutionNow movement are slated to hold protests nationwide, including in Abuja and Lagos, on August 5. 
  • According to an official post on social media, protesters are called to gather at the Logos Center in Lagos.

  •  However, as of writing, it remains unclear where and at what time the protests will take place in other locations nationwide. 

  • The protest is taking place to denounce government corruption, worsening economic conditions, police brutality, lack of freedom of expression, among other issues.
  • Additionally, this protest marks the third protest held annually since the first “Revolution Now” protest on August 5, 2019, followed by the second one on August 5, 2020

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The first “#RevolutionNow” protest in 2019 was marked by the arrest of the Coalition for Revolution (CORE) leader Omoyele Sowore two days before the protest on August 3. Since then, Sowore has been released and re-arrested several times and #RevolutionNow activists have maintained their anti-government protests, often joining mobilizations led by other elements, as was seen on July 26 when Sowore and his supporters participated in the pro-Biafra protest outside Abuja’s High Federal Court. These protests are usually harshly repressed by the authorities, with security forces using teargas and rubber bullets to disperse the protests, displaying their low tolerance of dissent. 
  2. This year’s protest is held amid an increase in anti-government sentiment specifically directed against President Muhammadu Buhari. This is due to the growing grievances against the government’s perceived inability to tackle multiple critical challenges, including the worsening economic conditions, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the continued security crisis as the country is entrenched with militancy, banditry, and intercommunal conflicts among other challenges, and bad governance.
  3. FORECAST: Given the precedent of previous Revolution Now protests, the upcoming protests are likely to draw the participation of mid-to-high hundreds in each focal point. The organizers are likely intentionally avoiding disclosing the location of the gatherings, and thus protests are expected to emerge relatively spontaneously in central locations in main cities. This may include the Unity Fountain and Federal Court in Abuja, or the Gani Fawehinmi Park, the Lekki toll gate, the Lagos State House of Assembly, and the University of Lagos.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Nigeria on August 5 are advised to avoid nonessential travel to the “Revolution Now” assembly points and any other gatherings that may arise due to the heightened potential for unrest and security crackdowns.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Nationwide, Nigeria
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Please be advised

  • According to official publications on social media, activists from the #RevolutionNow movement are slated to hold protests nationwide, including in Abuja and Lagos, on August 5. 
  • According to an official post on social media, protesters are called to gather at the Logos Center in Lagos.

  •  However, as of writing, it remains unclear where and at what time the protests will take place in other locations nationwide. 

  • The protest is taking place to denounce government corruption, worsening economic conditions, police brutality, lack of freedom of expression, among other issues.
  • Additionally, this protest marks the third protest held annually since the first “Revolution Now” protest on August 5, 2019, followed by the second one on August 5, 2020

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The first “#RevolutionNow” protest in 2019 was marked by the arrest of the Coalition for Revolution (CORE) leader Omoyele Sowore two days before the protest on August 3. Since then, Sowore has been released and re-arrested several times and #RevolutionNow activists have maintained their anti-government protests, often joining mobilizations led by other elements, as was seen on July 26 when Sowore and his supporters participated in the pro-Biafra protest outside Abuja’s High Federal Court. These protests are usually harshly repressed by the authorities, with security forces using teargas and rubber bullets to disperse the protests, displaying their low tolerance of dissent. 
  2. This year’s protest is held amid an increase in anti-government sentiment specifically directed against President Muhammadu Buhari. This is due to the growing grievances against the government’s perceived inability to tackle multiple critical challenges, including the worsening economic conditions, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the continued security crisis as the country is entrenched with militancy, banditry, and intercommunal conflicts among other challenges, and bad governance.
  3. FORECAST: Given the precedent of previous Revolution Now protests, the upcoming protests are likely to draw the participation of mid-to-high hundreds in each focal point. The organizers are likely intentionally avoiding disclosing the location of the gatherings, and thus protests are expected to emerge relatively spontaneously in central locations in main cities. This may include the Unity Fountain and Federal Court in Abuja, or the Gani Fawehinmi Park, the Lekki toll gate, the Lagos State House of Assembly, and the University of Lagos.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Nigeria on August 5 are advised to avoid nonessential travel to the “Revolution Now” assembly points and any other gatherings that may arise due to the heightened potential for unrest and security crackdowns.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Nationwide, Nigeria
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed