Politics

02
Sep 2021
16:08 UTC

Sao Tome & Principe Tactical: Second round of Presidential elections slated to be held on September 5; maintain vigilance

Please be advised

  • On September 5, the second round of the presidential elections is slated to take place. The president of Sao Tome & Principe is elected by a two-round system for a five-year term. 
  • The election will be contested between Carlos Vila Nova of the presidential party Independent Democratic Action and Posser de Costa of the party leading the current government coalition, Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and Principe-Social Democratic Party (MLSTP-PSD).
  • In the first round, Vila Nova received 39 percent of the vote share followed by Posser who received 20 percent of the vote. 
  • The third-place candidate Delfim Neves of the Democratic Convergence Party – Reflection Group (PCD-GR) and the current president of the National Assembly contested the results alleging massive fraud. Neves’ calls for a recount were eventually rejected by the constitutional court. 
  • The second round was initially slated to take place on August 8, and then August 29, before the parliament finally convened to set September 5 as the date for the second round of the elections. 
  • Reports from September 1 indicate that outgoing President Evaristo Carvalho will remain in office until his successor though his term is officially slated to expire on September 3, despite reported opposition from some political stakeholders, including Neves who previously stated that the President’s mandate is not extendable.

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The second round of the elections comes after a period of heightened political tensions over the first-round results amid Neves’ attempted challenge to the election results. The political atmosphere is particularly tense following a reported foiled coup attempt forcing PM Jorge Bom Jesus to assume the role of the Interim Minister of Defense on August 14. The alleged coup attempt was reportedly led by the former Defense Minister Oscar Sousa, who was subsequently dismissed from his position, who reportedly attempted to arrest both Jesus and President Carvalho. 
  2. The alleged coup attempt indicates increasing factionalism within the MLSTP-PSD, as witnessed in the first round of the elections in which multiple MLSTP-PSD members contested the polls as independent candidates. Moreover, the overall political tensions and Neves’s reported objection to the polls also indicate the increasing fragility of the current government coalition between the MLSTP-PSD, PCD, and the Force for Change Democratic Movement and Union of Democrats for Citizenship and Development Coalition (MDFM-UDD). While the elections are expected to be closely contested, the divisions could favor Vilas Nova and the ADI, currently the largest single party in the parliament over the possibility of aggrieved political factions within the current government coalition not supporting Costa’s candidacy.
  3. FORECAST: Polling day is likely to transpire peacefully given the peaceful nature of the second round campaigning period, which has also not witnessed any notable politically motivated violence. However, the post-electoral phase is likely to be volatile due to lingering political tensions from the 2018 legislative elections and the recent phase of political uncertainty around the current government. This could potentially lead to confrontations between supporters of rival camps as well as protests and demonstrations over contested aspects of the polls. Additionally, polling stations are likely to be crowded through the day, which could lead to traffic disruptions across electoral facilities through the day.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Sao Tome & Principe on September 5 are advised to avoid the vicinity of electoral facilities due to the election and the potential for traffic disruptions.
  2. Maintain heightened vigilance and avoid gatherings and political events over the coming week due to the heightened tensions and the risk of political violence and associated civil unrest.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Nationwide
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Please be advised

  • On September 5, the second round of the presidential elections is slated to take place. The president of Sao Tome & Principe is elected by a two-round system for a five-year term. 
  • The election will be contested between Carlos Vila Nova of the presidential party Independent Democratic Action and Posser de Costa of the party leading the current government coalition, Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and Principe-Social Democratic Party (MLSTP-PSD).
  • In the first round, Vila Nova received 39 percent of the vote share followed by Posser who received 20 percent of the vote. 
  • The third-place candidate Delfim Neves of the Democratic Convergence Party – Reflection Group (PCD-GR) and the current president of the National Assembly contested the results alleging massive fraud. Neves’ calls for a recount were eventually rejected by the constitutional court. 
  • The second round was initially slated to take place on August 8, and then August 29, before the parliament finally convened to set September 5 as the date for the second round of the elections. 
  • Reports from September 1 indicate that outgoing President Evaristo Carvalho will remain in office until his successor though his term is officially slated to expire on September 3, despite reported opposition from some political stakeholders, including Neves who previously stated that the President’s mandate is not extendable.

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The second round of the elections comes after a period of heightened political tensions over the first-round results amid Neves’ attempted challenge to the election results. The political atmosphere is particularly tense following a reported foiled coup attempt forcing PM Jorge Bom Jesus to assume the role of the Interim Minister of Defense on August 14. The alleged coup attempt was reportedly led by the former Defense Minister Oscar Sousa, who was subsequently dismissed from his position, who reportedly attempted to arrest both Jesus and President Carvalho. 
  2. The alleged coup attempt indicates increasing factionalism within the MLSTP-PSD, as witnessed in the first round of the elections in which multiple MLSTP-PSD members contested the polls as independent candidates. Moreover, the overall political tensions and Neves’s reported objection to the polls also indicate the increasing fragility of the current government coalition between the MLSTP-PSD, PCD, and the Force for Change Democratic Movement and Union of Democrats for Citizenship and Development Coalition (MDFM-UDD). While the elections are expected to be closely contested, the divisions could favor Vilas Nova and the ADI, currently the largest single party in the parliament over the possibility of aggrieved political factions within the current government coalition not supporting Costa’s candidacy.
  3. FORECAST: Polling day is likely to transpire peacefully given the peaceful nature of the second round campaigning period, which has also not witnessed any notable politically motivated violence. However, the post-electoral phase is likely to be volatile due to lingering political tensions from the 2018 legislative elections and the recent phase of political uncertainty around the current government. This could potentially lead to confrontations between supporters of rival camps as well as protests and demonstrations over contested aspects of the polls. Additionally, polling stations are likely to be crowded through the day, which could lead to traffic disruptions across electoral facilities through the day.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Sao Tome & Principe on September 5 are advised to avoid the vicinity of electoral facilities due to the election and the potential for traffic disruptions.
  2. Maintain heightened vigilance and avoid gatherings and political events over the coming week due to the heightened tensions and the risk of political violence and associated civil unrest.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Nationwide
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

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