Developing

01
Dec 2021
11:12 UTC

USA Alert: Three killed, eight injured in school shooting at Oxford High School in Oxford, MI on November 30; reiterates recent increase in school shootings

Please be advised

  • On November 30, a 15-year-old student opened fire at the Oxford High School in Oxford, Michigan, killing three students and severely injuring eight others. Authorities received 911 calls about the shooting at 12:51 (local time) and the suspect was detained at 13:00.  
  • The suspect has been placed in a special cell under suicide watch at a juvenile detention center in Oakland, although the motive remains unconfirmed as of writing. 
  • Students and staff were evacuated from the school to nearby grocery stores following the attack. 
  • The suspect used a semiautomatic handgun purchased by his father on November 26. The suspect had posted photos of the firearm on social media prior to the shooting.  
  • The suspect does not have any criminal background or disciplinary issues at school.  
  • The Oxford High School shooting follows school shootings in Arlington, TX on October 6 and in Winston-Salem, NC on September 8. 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The shooting reiterates the increasing incidence of school shootings nationwide following the resumption of face-to-face classes in late 2020 and early 2021. This is supported by a report from the National Association of School Resource Officers, which recorded 97 gun-related incidents in schools between August-October 2021, compared to just 29 over the same time period in 2019.  
  2. The increase in shooting-related incidents highlights concerns that the closures of schools in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19 have led to the isolation of vulnerable teenagers, making them more susceptible to violent behavior as well as extremist content online, including message boards discussing school shootings. That the Department of Homeland Security’s May Bulletin cites isolation as one of the risk factors for students who commit violent acts in schools supports this.  
  3. In addition to school shootings, authorities have also foiled attempted shootings and uncovered attack plots, including plots mimicking the Columbine school shooting in Columbine, CO. This is evidenced by the arrest of four teenagers charged with plotting a school shooting in Dunmore, PA on September 25 and two other students charged for plotting a school shooting in Farmington, MI on September 30. FORECAST: Given the likelihood of further attacks at schools and colleges, authorities are expected to bolster surveillance of at-risk students to foil potential plots going forward. 
  4. Separately, the response time of the county police and the measures taken by the school to safeguard students on campus reflects the increased efforts of police personnel and school authorities to respond to such security incidents. Nevertheless, the shooting is liable to prompt renewed calls for increased security enforcement on educational campuses nationwide.
  5. Moreover, the attack is likely to reignite debates on gun control. While legislation is expected to remain largely unchanged, the proposal for minor amendments at the local level, including introducing gun locks, is likely. 
  6. Associated vigils and protests can be anticipated in the coming days in Oxford, as well as in neighboring towns. While these are expected to transpire peacefully, they are likely to cause traffic disruptions. 

Recommendations

  1. Travel to the USA can continue while maintaining heightened vigilance due to the persisting threat of gun violence.   
  2. If alerted to suspicious activity inform authorities immediately.   
  3. If a potential shooting or similar incident manifests, it is advised to leave the area immediately, if possible, or take shelter at a secure location. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Oxford, MI, USA
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Please be advised

  • On November 30, a 15-year-old student opened fire at the Oxford High School in Oxford, Michigan, killing three students and severely injuring eight others. Authorities received 911 calls about the shooting at 12:51 (local time) and the suspect was detained at 13:00.  
  • The suspect has been placed in a special cell under suicide watch at a juvenile detention center in Oakland, although the motive remains unconfirmed as of writing. 
  • Students and staff were evacuated from the school to nearby grocery stores following the attack. 
  • The suspect used a semiautomatic handgun purchased by his father on November 26. The suspect had posted photos of the firearm on social media prior to the shooting.  
  • The suspect does not have any criminal background or disciplinary issues at school.  
  • The Oxford High School shooting follows school shootings in Arlington, TX on October 6 and in Winston-Salem, NC on September 8. 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The shooting reiterates the increasing incidence of school shootings nationwide following the resumption of face-to-face classes in late 2020 and early 2021. This is supported by a report from the National Association of School Resource Officers, which recorded 97 gun-related incidents in schools between August-October 2021, compared to just 29 over the same time period in 2019.  
  2. The increase in shooting-related incidents highlights concerns that the closures of schools in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19 have led to the isolation of vulnerable teenagers, making them more susceptible to violent behavior as well as extremist content online, including message boards discussing school shootings. That the Department of Homeland Security’s May Bulletin cites isolation as one of the risk factors for students who commit violent acts in schools supports this.  
  3. In addition to school shootings, authorities have also foiled attempted shootings and uncovered attack plots, including plots mimicking the Columbine school shooting in Columbine, CO. This is evidenced by the arrest of four teenagers charged with plotting a school shooting in Dunmore, PA on September 25 and two other students charged for plotting a school shooting in Farmington, MI on September 30. FORECAST: Given the likelihood of further attacks at schools and colleges, authorities are expected to bolster surveillance of at-risk students to foil potential plots going forward. 
  4. Separately, the response time of the county police and the measures taken by the school to safeguard students on campus reflects the increased efforts of police personnel and school authorities to respond to such security incidents. Nevertheless, the shooting is liable to prompt renewed calls for increased security enforcement on educational campuses nationwide.
  5. Moreover, the attack is likely to reignite debates on gun control. While legislation is expected to remain largely unchanged, the proposal for minor amendments at the local level, including introducing gun locks, is likely. 
  6. Associated vigils and protests can be anticipated in the coming days in Oxford, as well as in neighboring towns. While these are expected to transpire peacefully, they are likely to cause traffic disruptions. 

Recommendations

  1. Travel to the USA can continue while maintaining heightened vigilance due to the persisting threat of gun violence.   
  2. If alerted to suspicious activity inform authorities immediately.   
  3. If a potential shooting or similar incident manifests, it is advised to leave the area immediately, if possible, or take shelter at a secure location. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Oxford, MI, USA
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible