Germany & Sweden Alert: Two IS-affiliated suspects arrested in Germany for plotting attack on Riksdag, Stockholm on March 19; reiterates Sweden's status as priority target for attacks | Security Portal

Mar 2024

12:22 UTC

Germany & Sweden Alert: Two IS-affiliated suspects arrested in Germany for plotting attack on Riksdag, Stockholm on March 19; reiterates Sweden’s status as priority target for attacks

Current Situation

On March 19, German authorities arrested two Afghan nationals in Gera, Thuringia, accused of planning an Islamist terrorist attack using firearms on the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament in Stockholm.
The suspects reportedly received instructions from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISPK), an IS offshoot operating in and around Afghanistan, in 2023 to conduct an attack in response to the Quran-burning incidents in Sweden and other Scandinavian countries. The attack plot intended to target police officers and civilians in the vicinity of the Riksdag using firearms.
According to Germany’s federal prosecutor’s office, the suspects made “concrete attack plans” in consultation with the ISPK. They conducted extensive internet research regarding the local conditions around the Riksdag and attempted to obtain weapons, albeit unsuccessfully, multiple times.
One of the suspects, identified as Ibrahim M. G, reportedly joined ISPK in August 2023, while the other suspect was not a member of the group but was involved in supporting the organization. Both suspects were previously involved in collecting donations for IS in Germany.

Assessments & Forecast

Although no weapons were procured, given that the suspects were coordinating with a transnational Islamist organization and conducted extensive background research on the intended target, they posed a highly credible threat.
That the suspects intended to target the Riksdag reiterates Sweden’s status as a priority target for Islamist attacks, with the 2023 Quran-burning incidents continuing to remain a key rallying point for the incitement of such attacks. This is further evidenced by the October 16 shooting in Belgium, carried out by an IS-affiliated individual resulting in the deaths of two Swedish nationals, as well as the arrests of four IS-affiliated suspects for planning attacks in Tyreso, Stockholm County, on March 7-8.
Furthermore, the choice of target is also notable given that attack plots targeting high-profile government buildings such as parliaments or presidential palaces are infrequent. That said, the choice of target still highlights Islamist attempts to carry out symbolic and high-casualty attacks, with the Riksdag representing the Swedish state and also being a major tourist attraction in Stockholm. However, it is improbable that the suspects would have been able to carry out their planned attack, given the extensive security measures around the parliament building. Further, in general, security measures have been heightened nationwide since October 2023 when the Swedish security services increased the terrorist threat alert level to “high,” level four on a five-tier scale, since October 2023 due to Islamist militancy.
Moreover, these arrests highlight how militants are increasingly plotting attacks targeting other countries from Germany, likely due to its central geographical location and high number of immigrants. This is supported by the April 2023 arrests of two Syrian brothers in Hamburg suspected of plotting an Islamist attack targeting a church in Sweden, and the December 2023 arrests of three Hamas-affiliated suspects in Berlin plotting an attack on the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm.
Additionally, the involvement of Afghan nationals is in line with the Europewide trend of higher radicalization levels among immigrant communities, as individuals from disenfranchised backgrounds, including migrants, are more vulnerable to extremist propaganda. Recent examples of the involvement of immigrants in Islamist attacks include the March 4 arrest of an Afghan asylum seeker in Vienna, Austria who killed three women, and the January 23 arrest of a Syrian refugee on Islamist terrorism charges in Montellano, Spain.
The fact that these suspects were operating based on the instructions from ISKP is notable and highlights continued efforts by transnational Islamist groups to form local cells to conduct attacks in Europe. As such, this incident, coupled with the March 11 thwarted attack plot by the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades cell in L’Aquila, Italy, and Russian authorities neutralizing an IS cell plotting an attack on a Moscow synagogue on March 7, indicates the transnational groups’ attempts to use controversial issues such as Quran-burnings and the Israel-Hamas conflict as rallying points to gain traction among potential Islamist elements operating in Europe to increase their organizational strength in the region.
FORECAST: That said, the overall threat of coordinated large-scale Islamist attacks in Europe remains limited, considering that these Islamist networks lack the organizational capabilities to execute large-scale attacks, as demonstrated by the suspects’ inability to acquire weapons. Furthermore, these plots are more likely to be foiled by the authorities due to heightened monitoring by security agencies and logistical difficulties in executing such attacks. With that, the primary risk of successful attacks continues to stem from radicalized lone actors. Given recent attacks in Europe, stabbings are likely to remain the preferred modus operandi due to the lack of training required and lower detection rates. That said, the risk of shooting attacks remains relatively higher in Sweden compared to other countries, owing to the widespread availability of illicit weapons and reports suggesting a growing nexus between criminal networks and terrorist groups in the Scandinavian country.
FORECAST: Considering that Islamist extremist groups are known to intensify their radicalization and recruitment activities as well as incitement for attacks during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which is currently being observed by Muslims globally, there remains an increased risk of Islamist attacks, perpetrated by self-radicalized elements in western and northern European countries, in the immediate-to-near term.
FORECAST: Additionally, with Islamist groups using the ongoing conflict in Israel and the Palestinian Territories as a rallying point to incite further attacks, Jewish and Israeli institutions, such as diplomatic establishments, synagogues, and schools remain potential targets for such attacks in Sweden and European countries with significant Jewish communities – such as Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK. Furthermore, areas with higher footfall, such as transportation hubs, tourist attractions, and religious establishments also remain probable targets.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Sweden and across Europe on March 20 and in the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance of the increased threat of potential attacks by extremists regionwide, especially during Ramadan.
Maintain heightened vigilance for potential attacks near Swedish diplomatic missions, Israeli diplomatic missions, synagogues, Jewish establishments, festive events, transportation hubs, religious sites, and public places with large crowds regionwide due to the potential for attacks.
Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
If a potential stabbing, shooting, explosion, or similar incident manifests, leave the area immediately if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected].

Low

Germany & Sweden

Medium

Credible

Current Situation

On March 19, German authorities arrested two Afghan nationals in Gera, Thuringia, accused of planning an Islamist terrorist attack using firearms on the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament in Stockholm.
The suspects reportedly received instructions from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISPK), an IS offshoot operating in and around Afghanistan, in 2023 to conduct an attack in response to the Quran-burning incidents in Sweden and other Scandinavian countries. The attack plot intended to target police officers and civilians in the vicinity of the Riksdag using firearms.
According to Germany’s federal prosecutor’s office, the suspects made “concrete attack plans” in consultation with the ISPK. They conducted extensive internet research regarding the local conditions around the Riksdag and attempted to obtain weapons, albeit unsuccessfully, multiple times.
One of the suspects, identified as Ibrahim M. G, reportedly joined ISPK in August 2023, while the other suspect was not a member of the group but was involved in supporting the organization. Both suspects were previously involved in collecting donations for IS in Germany.

Assessments & Forecast

Although no weapons were procured, given that the suspects were coordinating with a transnational Islamist organization and conducted extensive background research on the intended target, they posed a highly credible threat.
That the suspects intended to target the Riksdag reiterates Sweden’s status as a priority target for Islamist attacks, with the 2023 Quran-burning incidents continuing to remain a key rallying point for the incitement of such attacks. This is further evidenced by the October 16 shooting in Belgium, carried out by an IS-affiliated individual resulting in the deaths of two Swedish nationals, as well as the arrests of four IS-affiliated suspects for planning attacks in Tyreso, Stockholm County, on March 7-8.
Furthermore, the choice of target is also notable given that attack plots targeting high-profile government buildings such as parliaments or presidential palaces are infrequent. That said, the choice of target still highlights Islamist attempts to carry out symbolic and high-casualty attacks, with the Riksdag representing the Swedish state and also being a major tourist attraction in Stockholm. However, it is improbable that the suspects would have been able to carry out their planned attack, given the extensive security measures around the parliament building. Further, in general, security measures have been heightened nationwide since October 2023 when the Swedish security services increased the terrorist threat alert level to “high,” level four on a five-tier scale, since October 2023 due to Islamist militancy.
Moreover, these arrests highlight how militants are increasingly plotting attacks targeting other countries from Germany, likely due to its central geographical location and high number of immigrants. This is supported by the April 2023 arrests of two Syrian brothers in Hamburg suspected of plotting an Islamist attack targeting a church in Sweden, and the December 2023 arrests of three Hamas-affiliated suspects in Berlin plotting an attack on the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm.
Additionally, the involvement of Afghan nationals is in line with the Europewide trend of higher radicalization levels among immigrant communities, as individuals from disenfranchised backgrounds, including migrants, are more vulnerable to extremist propaganda. Recent examples of the involvement of immigrants in Islamist attacks include the March 4 arrest of an Afghan asylum seeker in Vienna, Austria who killed three women, and the January 23 arrest of a Syrian refugee on Islamist terrorism charges in Montellano, Spain.
The fact that these suspects were operating based on the instructions from ISKP is notable and highlights continued efforts by transnational Islamist groups to form local cells to conduct attacks in Europe. As such, this incident, coupled with the March 11 thwarted attack plot by the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades cell in L’Aquila, Italy, and Russian authorities neutralizing an IS cell plotting an attack on a Moscow synagogue on March 7, indicates the transnational groups’ attempts to use controversial issues such as Quran-burnings and the Israel-Hamas conflict as rallying points to gain traction among potential Islamist elements operating in Europe to increase their organizational strength in the region.
FORECAST: That said, the overall threat of coordinated large-scale Islamist attacks in Europe remains limited, considering that these Islamist networks lack the organizational capabilities to execute large-scale attacks, as demonstrated by the suspects’ inability to acquire weapons. Furthermore, these plots are more likely to be foiled by the authorities due to heightened monitoring by security agencies and logistical difficulties in executing such attacks. With that, the primary risk of successful attacks continues to stem from radicalized lone actors. Given recent attacks in Europe, stabbings are likely to remain the preferred modus operandi due to the lack of training required and lower detection rates. That said, the risk of shooting attacks remains relatively higher in Sweden compared to other countries, owing to the widespread availability of illicit weapons and reports suggesting a growing nexus between criminal networks and terrorist groups in the Scandinavian country.
FORECAST: Considering that Islamist extremist groups are known to intensify their radicalization and recruitment activities as well as incitement for attacks during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which is currently being observed by Muslims globally, there remains an increased risk of Islamist attacks, perpetrated by self-radicalized elements in western and northern European countries, in the immediate-to-near term.
FORECAST: Additionally, with Islamist groups using the ongoing conflict in Israel and the Palestinian Territories as a rallying point to incite further attacks, Jewish and Israeli institutions, such as diplomatic establishments, synagogues, and schools remain potential targets for such attacks in Sweden and European countries with significant Jewish communities – such as Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK. Furthermore, areas with higher footfall, such as transportation hubs, tourist attractions, and religious establishments also remain probable targets.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Sweden and across Europe on March 20 and in the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance of the increased threat of potential attacks by extremists regionwide, especially during Ramadan.
Maintain heightened vigilance for potential attacks near Swedish diplomatic missions, Israeli diplomatic missions, synagogues, Jewish establishments, festive events, transportation hubs, religious sites, and public places with large crowds regionwide due to the potential for attacks.
Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
If a potential stabbing, shooting, explosion, or similar incident manifests, leave the area immediately if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected].

Low

Germany & Sweden

Medium

Credible

Germany & Sweden Alert: Two IS-affiliated suspects arrested in Germany for plotting attack on Riksdag, Stockholm on March 19; reiterates Sweden’s status as priority target for attacks

Current Situation

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

Current Situation

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

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