Italy Alert: Police thwart attack plot by Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades cell in L'Aquila, Abruzzo on March 11; suggests increase in Palestinian attack plots in Europe | Security Portal

Mar 2024

17:49 UTC

Italy Alert: Police thwart attack plot by Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades cell in L’Aquila, Abruzzo on March 11; suggests increase in Palestinian attack plots in Europe

Current Situation

On March 11, police confirmed the arrest of three Palestinian nationals in L’Aquila, Abruzzo, suspected of plotting terrorist attacks, including suicide attacks, against civilian and military targets in an unspecified country. They also engaged in propaganda and proselytism. All three had residence permits for humanitarian reasons.
The suspects reportedly set up a cell linked to the Tulkarm Brigade, a subgroup of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (AAMB) that has been active since 2022. AAMB is the armed wing of the Fatah political faction in the Palestinian Territories and has been designated a terrorist organization by the EU and USA.
They have been charged with criminal conspiracy for terrorism purposes or subversion of the democratic order, facing prison sentences of up to 15 years.
Israel has requested the extradition of one suspect, who was arrested on January 29. An Italian court is examining the request.
Details on whether authorities discovered weapons or a clear target have not been released as of writing.

Assessments & Forecast

Despite the lack of details released by police, the fact that the suspects are members of a recognized terrorist organization, coupled with the charges against them, indicates they posed a highly credible threat. While police stated the suspects planned suicide attacks, meaning they were attempting high-impact, mass-casualty attacks, it is unclear whether they were at the later stages of planning, especially as there is no official confirmation on whether they obtained weapons, explosives, or explosives precursors.
That two of the arrests appear to have coincided with the March 10 Abruzzo regional elections is also notable, with polling stations and political rallies acting as possible targets for attacks. While Italy has not recorded as many Islamist attack plots in recent months, as witnessed in Belgium, France, and Germany, the government’s continued support for Israel in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict does increase the threat of an attack. Further, reports of increased marginalization among Muslims in Italy also raises the potential for homegrown radicalization and subsequent attacks – as evidenced by charges of propaganda and proselytism levied against the suspects.
That the suspects received resident permits for humanitarian purposes is also expected to increase concerns over Islamist militants entering Italy from Gaza, with March 11 reports indicating that 85 Palestinians are now in Italy for medical treatment. While the migration of Palestinians from Gaza to European countries does pose a potential security threat, right-wing parties are liable to capitalize on the arrests to forward anti-immigrant policies – both in Italy and in other countries in Europe.
Regardless of the targeted country, the arrests reflect an upward trend in attempts by Islamist terrorist groups to form cells in Europe in recent months, with these groups catalyzed by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Indeed, in Russia, authorities neutralized an Islamic State (IS) cell plotting an attack on a Moscow synagogue on March 7, while in Sweden, authorities dismantled a suspected terrorist cell linked to the Islamic State – Somalia Province in Tyreso, Stockholm County, also on March 7.
The fact that the suspects are members of the AAMB is highly notable, given that Palestinian terrorist groups are largely confined to Israel and the Palestinian Territories. As such, the arrests may indicate a shift in their area of operation from MENA to Europe. This is also supported by the arrests of multiple Hamas operatives in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands in December 2023, who were plotting attacks against Jewish and Israeli targets in multiple European countries – including the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm. Moreover, given that the Hamas operatives were detained due to intelligence sharing from Israeli intelligence, similar cooperation was likely involved in the recent arrests.
Additionally, as the arrests took place at the start of Ramadan – especially against the backdrop of a surge in attack plots in multiple countries, as well as lone actor attacks in Austria, Belgium, France, and Switzerland since the Israel-Hamas conflict began on October 7 – concerns over an uptick in Islamist terrorism over the holiday are liable to increase among authorities. This is especially true for European countries with large Muslim migrant populations, including Austria Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, where the national terrorism threat levels have already been raised.
FORECAST: With at-risk countries expected to remain on high alert throughout Ramadan, there is an elevated potential for preemptive arrests and raids targeting organizations as well as community centers and mosques with suspected links to Islamist terrorist groups – as seen in Tyreso, Sweden on March 7. This, in turn, raises the potential for backlash against authorities in the form of riots in Muslim-majority areas, particularly in France and Sweden, where anti-police sentiment is already elevated among these populations.
FORECAST: While attempts to carry out multi-perpetrator, high-impact attacks will continue, amid the elevated Islamist terrorist threat in multiple countries regionwide, the likelihood of a successful attack remains limited. This is due to the limited capabilities of transnational terrorist groups within Europe, which make it harder for militants to avoid police detection, especially given the required communication between multiple actors. With that, the primary threat will continue to stem from self-radicalized lone actors who are likely to support groups like the Islamic State (IS) but are not affiliated with or in contact with them. While attacks using firearms and explosives cannot be ruled out, stabbings remain the most likely modus operandi, given the accessibility and low detection of bladed weapons.
FORECAST: Potential targets for militants include Jewish and Israeli institutions, including cultural, educational, and religious centers. Public gatherings, including open areas like public squares, as well as crowded indoor venues, such as concerts and malls, also remain probable targets.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Italy and across Europe on March 11 and in the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance of the increased threat of potential attacks by extremists regionwide, especially during Ramadan.
Maintain heightened vigilance for potential attacks near Israeli embassies, synagogues, Jewish establishments, festive events, transportation hubs, religious sites, and public places with large crowds due to the potential for attacks.
Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
If a potential stabbing, shooting, explosion, or similar incident manifests, leave the area immediately if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
Jewish and Israeli individuals and organizations are advised to be conscious of their surroundings and activity around any residences, places of work, or community centers. Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism or Israel. Those that wear the traditional head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase awareness of threats on social media using threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected].

Low

L'Aquila, Abruzzo, Italy

Medium

Confirmed

Current Situation

On March 11, police confirmed the arrest of three Palestinian nationals in L’Aquila, Abruzzo, suspected of plotting terrorist attacks, including suicide attacks, against civilian and military targets in an unspecified country. They also engaged in propaganda and proselytism. All three had residence permits for humanitarian reasons.
The suspects reportedly set up a cell linked to the Tulkarm Brigade, a subgroup of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (AAMB) that has been active since 2022. AAMB is the armed wing of the Fatah political faction in the Palestinian Territories and has been designated a terrorist organization by the EU and USA.
They have been charged with criminal conspiracy for terrorism purposes or subversion of the democratic order, facing prison sentences of up to 15 years.
Israel has requested the extradition of one suspect, who was arrested on January 29. An Italian court is examining the request.
Details on whether authorities discovered weapons or a clear target have not been released as of writing.

Assessments & Forecast

Despite the lack of details released by police, the fact that the suspects are members of a recognized terrorist organization, coupled with the charges against them, indicates they posed a highly credible threat. While police stated the suspects planned suicide attacks, meaning they were attempting high-impact, mass-casualty attacks, it is unclear whether they were at the later stages of planning, especially as there is no official confirmation on whether they obtained weapons, explosives, or explosives precursors.
That two of the arrests appear to have coincided with the March 10 Abruzzo regional elections is also notable, with polling stations and political rallies acting as possible targets for attacks. While Italy has not recorded as many Islamist attack plots in recent months, as witnessed in Belgium, France, and Germany, the government’s continued support for Israel in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict does increase the threat of an attack. Further, reports of increased marginalization among Muslims in Italy also raises the potential for homegrown radicalization and subsequent attacks – as evidenced by charges of propaganda and proselytism levied against the suspects.
That the suspects received resident permits for humanitarian purposes is also expected to increase concerns over Islamist militants entering Italy from Gaza, with March 11 reports indicating that 85 Palestinians are now in Italy for medical treatment. While the migration of Palestinians from Gaza to European countries does pose a potential security threat, right-wing parties are liable to capitalize on the arrests to forward anti-immigrant policies – both in Italy and in other countries in Europe.
Regardless of the targeted country, the arrests reflect an upward trend in attempts by Islamist terrorist groups to form cells in Europe in recent months, with these groups catalyzed by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Indeed, in Russia, authorities neutralized an Islamic State (IS) cell plotting an attack on a Moscow synagogue on March 7, while in Sweden, authorities dismantled a suspected terrorist cell linked to the Islamic State – Somalia Province in Tyreso, Stockholm County, also on March 7.
The fact that the suspects are members of the AAMB is highly notable, given that Palestinian terrorist groups are largely confined to Israel and the Palestinian Territories. As such, the arrests may indicate a shift in their area of operation from MENA to Europe. This is also supported by the arrests of multiple Hamas operatives in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands in December 2023, who were plotting attacks against Jewish and Israeli targets in multiple European countries – including the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm. Moreover, given that the Hamas operatives were detained due to intelligence sharing from Israeli intelligence, similar cooperation was likely involved in the recent arrests.
Additionally, as the arrests took place at the start of Ramadan – especially against the backdrop of a surge in attack plots in multiple countries, as well as lone actor attacks in Austria, Belgium, France, and Switzerland since the Israel-Hamas conflict began on October 7 – concerns over an uptick in Islamist terrorism over the holiday are liable to increase among authorities. This is especially true for European countries with large Muslim migrant populations, including Austria Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, where the national terrorism threat levels have already been raised.
FORECAST: With at-risk countries expected to remain on high alert throughout Ramadan, there is an elevated potential for preemptive arrests and raids targeting organizations as well as community centers and mosques with suspected links to Islamist terrorist groups – as seen in Tyreso, Sweden on March 7. This, in turn, raises the potential for backlash against authorities in the form of riots in Muslim-majority areas, particularly in France and Sweden, where anti-police sentiment is already elevated among these populations.
FORECAST: While attempts to carry out multi-perpetrator, high-impact attacks will continue, amid the elevated Islamist terrorist threat in multiple countries regionwide, the likelihood of a successful attack remains limited. This is due to the limited capabilities of transnational terrorist groups within Europe, which make it harder for militants to avoid police detection, especially given the required communication between multiple actors. With that, the primary threat will continue to stem from self-radicalized lone actors who are likely to support groups like the Islamic State (IS) but are not affiliated with or in contact with them. While attacks using firearms and explosives cannot be ruled out, stabbings remain the most likely modus operandi, given the accessibility and low detection of bladed weapons.
FORECAST: Potential targets for militants include Jewish and Israeli institutions, including cultural, educational, and religious centers. Public gatherings, including open areas like public squares, as well as crowded indoor venues, such as concerts and malls, also remain probable targets.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Italy and across Europe on March 11 and in the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance of the increased threat of potential attacks by extremists regionwide, especially during Ramadan.
Maintain heightened vigilance for potential attacks near Israeli embassies, synagogues, Jewish establishments, festive events, transportation hubs, religious sites, and public places with large crowds due to the potential for attacks.
Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
If a potential stabbing, shooting, explosion, or similar incident manifests, leave the area immediately if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
Jewish and Israeli individuals and organizations are advised to be conscious of their surroundings and activity around any residences, places of work, or community centers. Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism or Israel. Those that wear the traditional head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase awareness of threats on social media using threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected].

Low

L'Aquila, Abruzzo, Italy

Medium

Confirmed

Italy Alert: Police thwart attack plot by Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades cell in L’Aquila, Abruzzo on March 11; suggests increase in Palestinian attack plots in Europe

Current Situation

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

Current Situation

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

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