• Approximately 28 militants were killed as part of newly launched Operation ‘Tura Ta Kai Bango’, in Gujba LGA, Yobe State on January 9. While this operation is expected to bolster counterinsurgency efforts, given the resilience of entrenched militants therein the impact of the latest operation can be expected to be limited.
• The Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) claimed suicide vehicle-borne IED (SVBIED) attacks targeting security forces in Borno State’s Damboa LGA in Nigeria on January 10, which is noteworthy given the relative sporadic nature of the group’s use of SVBIEDs. 
• At least 14 people were killed in a militant raid accompanied by a female suicide bombing attack in Mozogo in Cameroon’s Extreme North Region on January 7-8. This comes after militant attacks incurring significant casualties in recent weeks and might prompt the authorities to institutionalize vigilante groups in efforts to bolster counterinsurgency efforts.

In the Lake Chad Basin region, the following notable incidents have been reported:

Nigeria

Niger

Cameroon

• Nigerian troops killed 28 militants in Yobe State on January 9 as part of the newly-launched operation called ‘Tura Ta Kai Bango’, meaning ‘we have been pushed to the wall’, in northeastern regions as a subsidiary of Operation Lafiya Dole. 
• The suicide-bombing attack conducted on Mozogo, located in Cameroon’s Extreme-North Region on January 7-8 prompted the regional authorities to announce the instauration of self-defense groups as per January 9 reports. 
• Reports from January 9 citing Cameroon’s Extreme-North Regional Governor Midjiyawa Bakary indicate that the authorities express their support for the remobilization of vigilante groups. 
• Sources from January 14 indicate that vigilante groups have started an operation to reduce the supply of food and other necessities to localities near the Camaroon-Nigeria border from Kolofata in Cameroon’s Extreme North Region to disrupt militants’ food supplies.

1. The newly-launched ‘Tura Ta Kai Bango’ operation in Nigeria’s northeastern states notably denotes the government’s willingness to bolster counterinsurgency efforts as militant groups continue to operate with relative freedom despite extensive security measures as part of ongoing Operation Lafiya Dole. That said, the fact that the ‘Tura Ta Kai Bango’ operation’s launch announcement was along with a successful operation against militants in Yobe State underscores the intent to portray capabilities and repair the locals’ trust in the authorities’ efforts against the militants by highlighting operational achievements. FORECAST: To that end, while the launch of this new operation might prove successful in temporarily mitigating the militants’ operations, given the resilience displayed by the entrenched militants it is unlikely that militancy will be eradicated from the region in the near future. 
2. In this context,  amid the several ISWAP claimed attacks over the past two weeks, the ISWAP-claimed SVBIED attack in Kafa, Borno State is noteworthy given the relative rarity of the group’s use of such a modus operandi, with the last ISWAP claimed SVBIED attack being recorded in Kirenawa in June 2020. The restrictive use of SVBIEDs could be either due to limited logistics or personnel with the technical knowledge to build SVBIEDs. Regardless, the attack further illustrates the intentions of the group to incur mass casualties among the troops with limited losses within its own ranks and to continue to illustrate relative operational superiority within the Lake Chad Region. FORECAST: That said, ISWAP can be expected to use SVBIEDs sporadically as a defensive tactic against security raids and while launching large-scale attacks. Furthermore, such incidents are likely to further demoralize the troops and discourage the locals from trusting the authorities’ capabilities against the militants. 
3. Meanwhile, the relatively high casualty count and the reported use of a female suicide bomber during the January 7 attack in Mozogo, Cameroon’s Extreme North Region, is notable. Considering that it follows several high-profile incidents over recent weeks, including the December 24, 2020 killing of 80 civilians in Darak, the attack was likely part of the militants’ strategy to launch high-casualty attacks during the festive season. This is further bolstered by the fact that Mozogo is reportedly dominated by Christian communities. The use of female suicide bombers is Boko Haram’s traditional modus operandi to incur mass civilian casualties. However, such attacks have become relatively less frequent with the last suicide bombing attack recorded in Extreme North Region in September 2020.
4. Notwithstanding, the recent series of large-scale attacks have likely further heightened the government’s threat perception regarding the militants’ momentum.  FORECAST: Security forces are expected to promptly launch additional operations in an attempt to dislodge militant presence. Furthermore, the Extreme-North Region Governor’s call for the revitalization of vigilante groups indicates the authorities’ awareness to instill localized security apparatus in the rural areas with an otherwise limited security presence. The importance of vigilante groups in counterinsurgency efforts can be illustrated by the recent operation launched by the vigilantes to disrupt militants’ supply chain in areas along the Cameroon-Nigeria border near Kolofata. However, the Governor’s recent statement potentially suggesting the authorities’ intent to institutionalize such self-defense groups may further complicate the security landscape with vigilante groups possibly exercising separate authority and control over the local populace.

We advise to avoid all travel to areas of Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad within the Lake Chad Region given the extreme risk of militancy.