• Jihadists in the Nigerian states of Borno and Yobe and in Niger’s Diffa Region clashed with security forces multiple times over the past week,suffering fatalities and seeing weapons seized.
• Several locales in Borno State and in Cameroon’s Extreme North Region faced attacks by Boko Haram targeting both civilians and security forces, in the form of multiple raids as well as one suicide bombing and one IED attack.
• The reported October 3 confession by a self-professed Boko Haram “officer” before members of the media regarding the group’s plans, apparently devised by himself and several associates, to attack several locations throughout Ondo State, illustrate Boko Haram’s continued desire to conduct attacks outside its traditional area of operations

On October 3, the Ondo State Police Command reportedly presented Mohammed Bashir, a suspected member of Boko Haram arrested on September 24 in Isua Akoko, Akoko South-East LGA, before journalists at its headquarters in Akure. Bashir reportedly confessed to being an “officer” of Boko Haram and to plotting attacks with other members of the group to be carried out throughout Ondo State. Bashir further warned that while some of his colleagues remains in northern Nigeria, some operatives had relocated to the country’s southwest.

The past week saw jihadist elements based in the Lake Chad region clash with security forces and suffer defeats in locales throughout northeastern Nigeria, namely in Bama, Borno State and Futchimiram, Yobe State, and in Niger’s Diffa Region. More notable, however, were reports of new evidence indicating Boko Haram’s intentions to conduct attacks outside of its usual sphere of influence in the Lake Chad Region, with the aforementioned confession of as a self-professed Boko Haram “officer” demonstrating the possibility of the jihadist threat now emergent beyond Boko Haram’s established theater of operations in Borno State. If true, this would illustrate the continued desire by some elements within Boko Haram to either expand their operations. Given the source of this information however, such claims should be treated with extreme cautions. That said, implications of the reported confession do call to mind the Islamic State’s West Africa Province’s (ISWAP) plot to attack the US and UK embassies in Abuja, which was thwarted in April by the Department of State Service (DSS). FORECAST: In this context, the possibility of a Boko Haram-related incident over the coming weeks, however minor, in previously unaffected parts of Nigeria, should not be ruled. That said, this threat should not be overstated as, to date, jihadists based in the Lake Chad region have had virtually no success carrying out attacks beyond their usual theater of operations, suggesting that their attacks will largely remain confined within the region itself for the foreseeable future.

We advise to avoid all travel to areas of Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad within the Lake Chad Region given the high risk of militancy.