Argentina’s Ente Nacional Regulador de Electricidad (ENRE) reported that over 33,000 customers are facing power outages in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area on March 16. Bolivia’s Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI) issued red alerts for overflows in the Isiboro river basin in the Beni and Cochabamba departments until March 18. Chile’s Direccion Meteorologica de Chile issued a forecast for high temperatures affecting several regions until March 19. In Colombia, per March 15 reports, around 50 municipalities are affected due to flooding after heavy rains in Cundinamarca, Bogota. Peru’s Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI) issued red alerts for overflows of rivers Chicama, El Ingenio, and Maranon in the departments of Ica, La Libertad, and Cajamarca on March 16. On March 15, a 60-day state of emergency was declared across multiple districts in Lima due to heavy rains. In the USA, the National Weather Service issued freeze and winter storm warnings across multiple states from March 16-17. Over 56,000 customers are facing power outages across California on March 16, as of writing.  

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned affected areas in the Americas on March 16 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. 

Reports indicate that a protest by LGBTQ+ rights activists will be held in front of the US Consulate in Montreal, located at 1134 Sainte-Catherine Street, on March 17. Protesters will gather at 15:00 (local time). The protest was organized to demonstrate against the alleged 400 bills introduced in the US Congress against the LGBTQI+ population.  

Based on social media engagement, coupled with past protests staged by the same organizers, the event is likely to attract a turnout in the low hundreds at most. Although the events are expected to transpire peacefully and without instances of unrest, a bolstered security presence can be anticipated in the vicinity of the US Consulate as a precautionary measure. Significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are likely in the protest location during the afternoon hours on March 17.   

Those operating or residing in Montreal on March 17 are advised to allot for disruptions in the vicinity of the US Consulate due to the slated protest.  

Multiple civic organizations and political parties, including Movimiento para la Liberacion de los Pueblos (MLP) and Comite de Desarrollo Campesino (CODECA), have announced nationwide protests, including in Guatemala City, on March 16. The protests are being held to denounce the candidacy of Thelma Cabrera and Jordan Rodas for the 2024 Presidential elections and the alleged electoral fraud. In Guatemala City, a protest will be held at the Plaza del Obelisco from 08:00 (local time). 

Based on precedent and social media estimates, the protest is expected to witness a turnout in the high hundreds to low thousands in Guatemala City. Spontaneous protests and blockades remain likely near Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE), Corte Suprema de Justicia (CSJ), and Corte de Constitucionalidad (CC) judicial buildings, as witnessed during the February 16 protests. Isolated clashes between protestors and security personnel also remain possible, given precedent. With this, bolstered security can be expected near the aforementioned locations to monitor proceedings.  Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular travel in the vicinity of the protest locations remain likely from the morning hours onwards.  

Those operating or residing in Guatemala City on March 16 are advised to maintain vigilance due to potential clashes between protestors and security personnel in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the slated protest action. 

Protests demanding President Dina Boluarte’s resignation will be held in Arequipa and Lima on March 16. In Arequipa, the Comite de Lucha Popular (CLP), a left-wing group, will hold a march from Plaza Espana to Plaza de Armas at 09:00 (local time). In Lima, the Confederacion General de Trabajadores del Peru (CGTP) has called for a protest at Plaza Dos de Mayo at 16:30.   

Based on recent anti-government protests recorded in February, the protests in Arequipa and Lima are likely to draw turnouts ranging in the high hundreds-to-low thousands. Although the general levels of violent unrest have dissipated amid anti-government protests in Peru, violent clashes between protesters and police, as well as instances of vandalism targeting government buildings and police stations are likely in Arequipa. In Lima, the protest is likely to transpire largely peacefully. Authorities are expected to respond with forcible dispersal methods such as tear gas, water cannons, and may also carry out mass arrests. Significant disruptions to traffic can be anticipated near the aforementioned locations during the slated timings. 

Those operating or residing in Arequipa or Lima on March 16 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of protests due to the threat of unrest.   

Servicio de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado de Lima (SEDAPAL), the water utility authorities, have announced water cuts across multiple districts of Lima on March 16-17 due to planned maintenance work and for the disinfection of reservoirs. On March 16, the water cuts are effective across neigborhoods of Ate, La Molina, and San Juan de Lurigancho between 13:00-21:00 (local time). Additionally, water cuts are effective across Cercado de Lima between 10:00-17:00 on March 16. Separately on March 17, water cuts are effective across La Molina between 13:00-21:00, and in San Juan de Lurigancho from 10:00-20:00. Similarly, across Miraflores, water cuts are effective from 12:00-22:00 across some urbanization areas whereas, it is effective from 12:00-23:55 across few other areas on March 17. Further details regarding the affected areas and timings can be found here (in Spanish). Moreover, due to the adverse rain and flood conditions especially affecting Rimac and Chillon rivers, water supply restrictions have been ongoing across other neighborhoods of Lima and Callao as of March 15. Consequently, SEDAPAL has installed over 489 supply points for free potable water in Lima.   

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas of Lima on March 16-17 are advised to allot for disruptions to water supply during the slated timings.

Multiple parades commemorating St Patrick’s Day are slated to be held across the USA from March 17-19. Parades are planned in Boston, MA on March 19, in Bayonne, NJ on March 19, in Charleston, SC on March 17, in Dublin, CA on March 18, Highlights, NJ on March 18, in Jersey City, NJ on March 17, in New York City, NY on March 17, and in Savannah, GA on March 17. 

The St Patrick’s Day parades are likely to witness a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid hundreds of thousands in Boston and New York City. In other cities, a turnout ranging from the mid-to-high tens of thousands can be anticipated. Although the events are expected to transpire peacefully without instances of unrest, a bolstered security presence can be anticipated in each location, especially in Boston, MA and New York City, NY to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are likely in the aforementioned locations during the slated timings on March 17-19. 

Those operating or residing in the USA on March 17-19 are advised to allot for disruptions in the aforementioned locations due to the slated St Patrick’s Day festivities. 

On March 15, a security operation by the military police against organized crime in Cidade de Deus (CDD), Zone Oeste, Rio de Janeiro City, resulted in three suspects killed, 19 suspects apprehended, and several weapons, and drugs seized. Alleged criminals reportedly set up barricades with fire on multiple roads, attempting to stop police advances during the operation. 

The incident underscores authorities’ crackdown efforts on organized crime in the Zona Oeste amid an uptick in turf wars witnessed since January between the Comando Vermlho (CV) criminal group, who reportedly controls CDD, and a militia group from Gardenia Azul. This is further evidenced by previous security operations in CDD on February 7, 10, and 13. Moreover, it highlights the threat of spillover violence that such operations pose to residents in the densely populated area, as evidenced by 15 schools suspending activities on March 15. This is liable to trigger civilian backlash against the frequency and intensity of operations, potentially prompting protests in Zona Oeste in the near term, as evidenced by residents reportedly staging protests against the latest operation as it unfolded.  

Per March 14 reports, alleged Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) members threw multiple explosive devices at the San Jorge military base in Saravena, Arauca, injuring one solider on March 13. As a result, military operations were conducted shortly after to secure the military facility and surrounding areas.  

The incident reflects the threat of explosive attacks by ELN against military facilities and personnel in the Arauca region, further evidenced by the ELN attacking a military unit with an explosive device on February 21 in Saravena, and the ELN explosive attack on a military unit in Arauquita, Arauca on February 16. Further, that the group carried out the attack despite a second round of peace talks within the Paz Total framework just concluding on March 10, demonstrates that talks remain ineffective in abating attacks by the groups. Thus, the risk of armed attacks targeting security units in Arauca will remain high in the near-term. With this, public criticism of the negotiation process with ELN is liable to intensify, with the negotiator Sergio Jaramillo denouncing the group as unwilling to end the conflict.  

On March 13, one personnel of Policia Nacional del Peru (PNP), the National Police, was killed during a shootout with alleged members of the Sendero Luminoso (SL) militant group in Vizcatan del Ene, Junin Department, in the Valle de los Rios Apurimac, Ene y Mantaro (VRAEM) region. The incident was recorded during a patrol carried out by Comando Conjunto de las Fuerzas Armadas, the joint command of armed forces. On February 15, SL members opened fire at a military aircraft in Vizcatan del Ene, leaving two security personnel injured.  

The latest attacks highlight the limitation of the existing security apparatus in dismantling the SL, albeit with weakened capabilities, in the region given that these follow the February 10 extension of the State of Emergency (SoE) in VRAEM, for 60 days, prompted by continued militant activities. This is further evidenced by the February 11 attack orchestrated by the SL in Natividad which left seven police officers dead during a patrol. As such, retaliatory shootings targeting security units are likely to recur intermittently in VRAEM in the near-to-medium term amid the SoE. 

President Joe Biden signed an executive order on gun control and to improve the enforcement of existing gun laws on March 14. It directs federal institutions to ensure that gun dealers are complying with existing background checks and calls for transparency about gun dealers with a history of firearms violations. The order strengthens federal support for existing ‘red flag’ laws, which are effective in 19 states and DC, and prevent the sale of arms to individuals deemed as dangerous.  

The order highlights persistent gun control efforts by Biden and federal authorities, as evidenced by the Justice Department sending states 231 million USD for ‘red flag’ laws and gun violence prevention on February 14. However, without laws to ban weapons with high-capacity magazines and to apply universal background checks, which is unlikely in the current divided Congress, gun violence will likely remain at elevated levels. This is evidenced by the use of high-power weapons in most of the 647 mass shootings recorded nationwide in 2022. Moreover, the order is liable to prompt lawsuits by gun rights groups in the near term.   

On March 13, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) released the Hate Crime Statistics 2021, which shows that hate crimes increased 11.6 percent between 2020-2021, from 8,120 to 9,065. Of the 12,411 reported victims, 64.5 percent were targeted because of ethnicity, race, or ancestry bias, followed by 15.9 percent of victims for their sexual orientation, and 14.1 percent for religious reasons. 43.2 percent of the incidents were intimidations, 35.5 percent were simple assaults, and 20.1 percent were aggravated assaults. 

The spike is notable as it marks a substantial increase compared to the three percent rise recorded between 2019-2020. Regardless, the threat of hate crimes will remain higher against the African American population, as they are the largest ethnic group victimized. Regarding religion-based crimes, the highest threat will be against Jewish population, having seen a 20 percent increase in attacks between 2020-2021. Lastly, the fact that more than 55 percent of hate crimes recorded in 2021 involved violence, considering assaults and aggravated assaults together, reflects the high potential for these instances to escalate into violence against the victim.