This report was written by:

Takshak Pai – MENA Senior Intelligence Manager and GCC specialist

And reviewed by:

Priyanka Prakash – MENA Associate Director & Darren Cohen – MENA Regional Director

• The UAE is scheduled to host the COP28 summit between November 30-December 12 at Dubai’s Expo City. Authorities have undertaken several logistical measures in preparation for the event.
• The UK FCDO’s October 29 advisory indicating the increased likelihood of terrorist attacks in the UAE is likely precautionary rather than pointing to intelligence on a concrete threat.
• Emirati security forces will likely bolster air defense systems in the vicinity of critical sites and infrastructure given the heightened tensions regionwide and explicit threats against the country.
• The risk of a terrorist and/or aerial attack materializing against the UAE during COP28 is currently low. The risk posed by criminals, and the breakout of protests, is also low.
• Through the hosting of the COP, the UAE intends to portray itself as a global and regional power. The country also likely wants to be seen as shedding its hydrocarbon-reliant image.
• Travel to Dubai may continue during the COP28 summit while adhering to security precautions and cultural norms. Contact us at [email protected] for risk assessments.

• The 28^th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is slated to be held in Dubai from November 30-December 12.
• The full schedule of the event can be found here.
• Several high-profile dignitaries, including Pope Francis and the UK’s King Charles III, are slated to attend the event. It is not yet confirmed whether US President Joe Biden will be part of the event, although he is reportedly not expected to attend at the time of writing.
• Organizers have stated that approximately 70,000 attendees are expected at the event.
• According to a report by a real estate analytics firm on November 7, Dubai’s hotel occupancy rates recorded a “noticeable jump” in November-December amid the city’s hosting of COP28.

• COP28 is slated to be held at Dubai’s Expo City. The venue, which hosted Dubai’s Expo 2020, is located adjacent to the Dubai Investments Park on the outskirts of Jebel Ali.
• Expo City is approximately 40km southwest of Dubai International Airport and approximately eight km northeast of al-Maktoum International Airport [Dubai World Central Airport (DWC)].

• The conference venue has been divided into two areas, namely the Blue and Green Zones.
  • The Blue Zone is a UN-managed site that is only open to accredited parties, delegates, and world leaders. This area will also host formal negotiations during the summit.
  • The Green Zone is managed by the UAE and will be open to members of the public. This area will feature events, exhibitions, and workshops.

• At the DWC Airport, a private aviation entrance and a dedicated area for COP28 attendees have been set up. Other unspecified “extensive arrangements” have been put in place to host international participants.
• A report by a Dubai-based aviation consulting firm has stated that the Dubai Airports Company is anticipating a “surge” in operational requests at DWC Airport around and during COP28.
• Due to this expected surge, DWC Airport operate at “Level 3” between November 28-December 14. This mandates that airlines should have a slot allocated by an independent slot coordinator to arrive or depart at the airport.
• Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) has not yet specified traffic restrictions during the event. However, they announced the following measures to support the event’s logistics:
  • The operating hours of the Dubai Metro have been extended from 05:00 to 01:00 (the following day) for all days of the conference.
  • New bus routes have been introduced to transport event participants from Expo City to various areas of Dubai even beyond the Metro’s operational hours.
  • Four stops at Opportunity Gate, Mobility Gate, Sustainability Gate, and Metro Gate have been opened for event participants to avail of vehicles such as taxis.
  • Over 100 directional road signs have been installed to provide navigational guidance towards the conference site.

Amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war since October 7, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) on October 29 updated its assessments indicating that the “risk of terrorist attacks happening in the UAE is very likely”. Prior to this update, the risk of terrorist attacks had been “likely”. The advisory stated that there was an increased threat against Western interests, including UK citizens, from “indiscriminate” terrorist attacks by groups and individuals who view British nationals as targets. The advisory further stated that UK nationals operating or residing in the UAE must maintain a “high level of security awareness”, particularly in public places and events.

Hostile Actors/Threats

1. The immediate trigger for the FCDO’s updated assessment is likely to have been the Iraq-based Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq militia group’s threat on October 24 to target US bases in the UAE and Kuwait. The group has previously claimed to have struck the Emirates in 2022, even though this was likely a front for a more established Iran-backed proxy seeking to maintain plausible deniability. Regardless of the actual threat actor, the broader alliance of Iran-backed Shiite militias is in possession of significant kinetic capabilities, including arms that can reach the UAE, which likely factored into the FCDO advisory given the perceived credible nature of the threat.
2. The assessment update will also likely have been influenced by the currently heightened tensions between the Yemen-based Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition, of which the UAE is broadly a member. This is particularly following the reported clashes on October 24 between the Shiite group and Saudi soldiers in southern Saudi Arabia against the backdrop of an unofficial truce that has largely remained in place since April 2022.
3. The Houthis may also seek to target the UAE due to its strong ties with Israel, which it has maintained amid the current Israel-Hamas war. The Emirates is thus likely perceived to be a legitimate target for the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance”, particularly due to perceptions that Abu Dhabi has not yet taken a firm anti-Israel stance. This was also indicated by reports from November 1 quoting a senior Houthi representative who accused the UAE of “taking part in the attack on Gaza” and alleged that the UAE (and KSA) had refused the Houthis’ request to “break the siege on Gaza”.
4. At the current juncture, there is no increased risk of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) or al-Qaeda (AQ) targeting the UAE. This is given the absence of attacks by these groups in the UAE in recent years, and them having no known operational capabilities or militant infrastructure in the country. That said, both IS and AQ have released calls in previous weeks for their supporters to attack Western and Israeli-linked establishments and individuals worldwide amid ongoing regional tensions.

Overall Risk Assessment

1. It is currently unlikely that the Houthis will seek to attack the UAE. However, should this scenario materialize, it would likely involve the use of explosive-laden unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and/or cruise or ballistic missiles, as previously seen in January 2022. Additionally, considering prior events, the possibility that UAVs might be launched from outside of Yemen by Iran-backed militias on behalf of the Houthis/Iran cannot be ruled out.
2. The ability of the Houthis to cause major damage is likely to be curbed due to its limited long-range capabilities as well as the UAE’s investment in anti-missile and UAV systems in the recent past. This is bolstered by the support of US military assets and hardware to the region since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict, as was seen with the deployment of maritime reinforcements, and the reported stationing of additional fighter jets to the al-Dhafra Airbase in Abu Dhabi.

Other Threat Actors & Emirati Authorities’ Preparedness

1. The probability of a militant attack taking place in the UAE is very low. In light of current global jihadist trends and the lack of indications of jihadist groups’ capabilities in the UAE, the most plausible militant threat scenario is likely to involve a low-sophistication attack, possibly carried out by a radicalized non-Emirati lone-wolf actor. The hosting of the COP28 could be perceived as a prime target to conduct an attack given the high-profile nature of the event. This could also extend to other large public gatherings in the country over the coming days and weeks, such as celebrations related to the UAE’s National Day on December 2, especially if the Israel-Hamas conflict intensifies.
2. There are currently no known increased security measures employed by the UAE. However, Emirati security forces will likely have bolstered/will bolster their air defense systems in the vicinity of critical sites and infrastructure nationwide given the heightened tensions regionwide and the explicit threats against the country. US forces will also likely have ramped up their air defenses in the vicinity of US military installations in the country, particularly at the al-Dhafra Airbase in Abu Dhabi.
3. There are no indications of security protocols being changed for public events in the UAE, apart from certain events either being canceled or postponed due to the sensitivities surrounding celebratory functions during a period of regional crisis. It is unlikely at the current juncture that the UAE will drastically alter its security plans for scheduled public events, particularly given that authorities will not seek to alarm participants or be seen as endorsing the FCDO’s assessment that the UAE is at increased risk of being attacked. The UAE generally has an interest in projecting that the country is safe for travel and investment and will therefore invest in both security and public relations measures to disseminate this message. Overall, the FCDO’s updated assessment is likely precautionary and reflects the currently heightened risks regionwide, rather than pointing to intelligence on a time-critical or concrete threat.

During previous COP summits worldwide, protests have been held to pressure world leaders to act on climate change. These demonstrations have been recorded both outside the conference hall as well as in central areas of the city in which the summit was held. During the previous edition of the summit (COP27) in Egypt, hundreds of activists held a peaceful demonstration inside the event center at Sharm el-Sheikh. Prior to this, during the COP26 summit in Glasgow, thousands of protesters peacefully marched through the city chanting slogans and carrying banners.

Risk & Overall Threat Assessment

1. Protests in the UAE are extremely rare due to the authorities’ stringent stance against any manifestations of dissent, including among expatriates. Any demonstrations that do occur must receive government authorization. Protests, if any, mostly center around labor disputes and are not known to be particularly disruptive. For instance, in May 2022, food delivery service workers in Dubai halted work to demand higher wages but this did not cause widespread disruptions in the city. Therefore, there is a low risk of impromptu protests taking place during COP28 in Dubai city itself.
2. Authorities have announced that a dedicated area for protest gatherings termed the “Voices for Action” hub in the Green Zone, will be set up for activists to demonstrate for the duration of the summit. This was likely set up by the government with the intention to be seen as championing free speech activism during the summit amid criticism of the country’s alleged poor human rights record. It also likely indicates authorities’ intention to limit all protest activity to this particular area only, rather than permitting demonstrations to be held across Dubai.
3. Although there are no explicit calls to protest at the time of writing, given precedent, protest activity is likely to predominantly be led by foreign activists and limited to registered pre-authorized protests. This is because the UAE government has a track record of stifling dissent and will likely monitor local activists (of whom there are few) who participate in COP28-related protests and potentially crack down on them after the summit. Security will likely be bolstered in the vicinity of the “Voices for Action” hub to ensure that the authorized demonstrations are peaceful.
4. To a lesser extent, it is also possible that negative Western perceptions of the UAE’s alleged exploitation of blue-collar labor workers could lead to protests by international visitors or activists in the country during the summit. This is particularly true given reports in the run-up to the summit that migrant workers were instructed to prepare conference facilities during a period when outdoor work was banned due to high summer temperatures. Such protests could take the form of placard displays and anti-government sloganeering at the dedicated protest zone, which could be seen by authorities as direct criticism of the country and its laws. However, should such demonstrations by foreign nationals occur, it is unlikely that Emirati officials will impose penalties or employ dispersal measures in order to avoid being perceived as heavy-handed against international critics.

Threat Factors

1. There is a low risk of crime in the UAE. Most of the rarely reported crimes in Dubai are opportunistic in nature, including pickpocketing, burglary, and petty theft. There have also been reports of attempted burglaries at expatriate households and businesses. However, these incidents occur infrequently. Criminals are also known to impersonate police or government officials to extort or steal money. Foreign nationals are particularly vulnerable to such crime due to the perception that they represent more lucrative targets and are less cognizant of security forces’ procedures.
2. Instances of organized crime, including drug trafficking and money laundering, have been occasionally reported in Dubai. For instance, on September 14, Dubai police officials claimed to have thwarted an attempt to smuggle in illicit Captagon pills worth over one billion USD. There have also been reports of foreign criminal organizations shifting their activities to the UAE and presenting themselves as legitimate businesses. These individuals have allegedly used investments in legal sectors as a cover for drug trafficking and money laundering. The phenomenon of money laundering can be partially attributed to the UAE’s status as one of the world’s most attractive tax haven countries. These instances of organized crime do not pose a significant threat to or impact uninvolved foreign residents or businesses operating in the country.

Risk & Overall Threat Assessment

1. The risk of violent/significant crime breaking out in the vicinity of the conference center in Expo City or in central areas of Dubai is low. However, the threat of crimes of opportunity such as petty crimes will likely persist, albeit at a reduced capacity. There are certain areas within Dubai where the likelihood of such criminal incidents is higher. In the immediate vicinity of Expo City, this includes the Jebel Ali Industrial Area, which houses blue-collar labor camps and where incidents of robbery have periodically occurred. Security forces are likely to crack down on any such criminal activity in a timely and efficient manner given the significance and extent of media attention on the event.
2. It is unlikely that criminals will seek to directly take advantage of the increased attendance at Expo City during COP28 and target foreigners. This is primarily because security will likely be significantly bolstered at the venue, both in terms of personnel and the intensified deployment of logistics such as security cameras as was seen during the Dubai Expo 2020 which was held at the same location. Moreover, delegates and visitors are likely to only utilize vetted transport providers and stay in “safe zones” in proximity to the conference center which will be well patrolled given the presence of heads of state. Combined, these factors will reduce criminals’ ability to target delegates.

1. In the months leading up to COP 28, the UAE has been aiming to position itself as a frontrunner in introducing green and renewable energy initiatives. This was seen for instance in May when Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid approved 78 environmental projects and initiatives that included national strategies for reducing carbon and regulating the use of solar energy. The UAE wants to be seen as shedding its hydrocarbon-reliant image. This is currently even more relevant for the UAE amid criticism of the appointment of the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Sultan al-Jaber, as the president of the COP28 summit. Global activists and civil society groups have alleged that this appointment is a conflict of interests due to a “polluter” being put in charge to spearhead the adoption of environmentally friendly strategies. Al-Jaber has already seemingly attempted to address these criticisms by suggesting in October that a “phase down” of fossil fuels is inevitable, which is a key demand of climate activists.
2. The UAE’s initiatives in the run-up to COP28 were likely undertaken to employ soft power and portray to other states that the country has adequate green credentials to prompt the world’s leaders to agree on substantial climate reforms. The UAE has an interest in pursuing this ambition because such agreements between global governments at this conference will provide Abu Dhabi with significant geopolitical clout. This will aid its efforts to cement its reputation as a leading global power and a regional power, particularly amid recent friction with its regional economic rival, Saudi Arabia. In this regard, the UAE will aim to use its diplomatic credentials and its responsibilities as conference host to lobby global states to reach deals, particularly contentious ones such as a timeline to transition away from fossil fuels.
3. Overall, from a security perspective, the risk posed to the summit by militants, criminals, and the breakout of widespread protests and/or civil unrest is low. This is due to a combination of factors, including bolstered security protocols in Dubai, the low risk posed by criminals, and the likelihood of demonstrations being peaceful and limited to the designated area inside Expo City.

1. Travel to Dubai may continue during the COP28 summit while adhering to security precautions and cultural norms. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary support options or [email protected] for risk assessments.
2. Refrain from criticizing Emirati culture, authorities, and government policies. This is because legal measures, including deportation and detention, have been taken against foreign nationals. This applies both to public spaces and online, including on social media.
3. Refrain from discussing politically sensitive topics with unknown individuals. These may include government policies toward non-Emirati residents of the UAE and migrant workers, normalization with Israel, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the UAE’s involvement in the Yemen, Libya, and Sudan conflicts, Emirati ties with the US, and the Royal Family.
4. Remain cognizant of the underlying potential for drone and missile strikes targeting the UAE, especially near strategic infrastructure, during periods of tensions between the Houthis/other Iran-backed groups and the UAE/Saudi Arabia.
5. Maintain heightened vigilance of individuals who may attempt to impersonate security personnel. UAE Police will be in police uniform, carrying official identification, and traveling in a marked police vehicle or an unmarked vehicle with police emergency lights on the dashboard.
6. Refrain from taking photographs of security forces and sensitive locations, including government facilities and security installations, as this can result in detention.
7. LGBTQ+ travelers, especially in more conservative emirates of the UAE, are advised to be cognizant of the prevailing attitudes toward the LGBTQ+ community and the potential for detention or deportation for engaging in overt homosexual activity or cross-dressing.
8. Female travelers should avoid traveling alone after dark and dress modestly, such as covering both arms and legs to avoid attracting unwanted attention, particularly in areas populated by more religious and conservative individuals. Females traveling alone should notify trusted colleagues, local contacts, or someone within the organization of their itinerary plans and have their numbers on speed dial.
9. Use only vetted transportation and metered taxis from a hotel or familiar organization.