Current Situation – A protest denouncing attacks on politicians will take place at Brandenburg Gate in Berlin at 18:00 (local time) on May 5. Organizers have specifically focused on right-wing violence, given multiple attacks by right-wing individuals.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on social media engagement, the protest is likely to witness turnouts in the mid to high thousands. Further, spontaneous protests are also likely to take place in urban centers nationwide on May 5 and in the coming days. This includes cities like Frankfurt, Dresden, Hamburg, and Munich. Given the expected turnout, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed near the Brandenburg Gate as a precautionary measure and to monitor the proceedings, with security cordons likely to be put in place as well. While the protest itself has been organized as anti-violence, the focus on the right does increase the potential for counter-demonstrations by right-wing groups. Should counter-protests manifest, localized clashes between opposing groups cannot be ruled out. Significant disruptions to travel, including possible road closures, can be anticipated near Brandenburg Gate during the evening hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Berlin on May 5 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near Brandenburg Gate during the evening hours due to the protest.  

Current Situation – Several protests will take place in Dublin on May 6, a bank holiday in Ireland. Activists associated with the Pro-Life Campaign Ireland movement will hold a protest at St. Stephen’s Green starting at 14:00 (local time). Protesters will then march to the nearby Leinster House, which houses the Irish Parliament. Right-wing and anti-immigration groups will hold a protest denouncing the government’s asylum policy at the Garden of Remembrance starting at 14:30. In response, left-wing and pro-immigration groups will hold a counter-demonstration at the same location. 

Assessments & Forecast – With the protests likely to attract turnouts in the high-hundreds to low-thousands each, a bolstered security presence is expected in the vicinity of protest locations as a precautionary measure. Considering heightened sentiments over the protest issues, there remains an elevated potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters, police, and counter-protesters. Additionally, the threat of physical and verbal abuse targeting politicians and journalists covering the protests remains elevated. In case of escalating unrest, authorities are liable to use forcible crowd control measures, including arrests. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near all protests. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Dublin on May 6 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the elevated potential for unrest in the vicinity of the aforementioned protests. Allot for travel-related disruptions near the protest locations during the afternoon hours. 

Current Situation – Unionized transport workers associated with multiple unions, including the Unione Sindacale di Base (USB), will hold a nationwide 24-hour strike on May 6. In Rome, transportation services provided by Atac, RomaTpl, and ATI Autoservizi Troiani/Sap operators will be affected. Minimum services will be guaranteed from 00:00 to 08:29 (local time) and from 17:00 to 20:00. Details are available here. (in Italian). In Milan, the strike will affect buses, metro, trams, and trolleybuses operated by Azienda Trasporti Milanesi (ATM). Minimum services will be guaranteed from 00:00 to 08:45 and 15:00 to 18:00.  

Assessments & Forecast – Given precedent and the mobilizational capability of the union, the slated labor action is expected to be widely adhered to, unless averted. Although minimum services will be guaranteed, significant disruptions to public transport services, including buses, trams, and trains, are anticipated during the strike. Additionally, traffic on major motorways will likely be heavier than usual as an increased number of commuters resort to using personal vehicles. While no protests have yet been announced, spontaneous peaceful demonstrations cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of transportation hubs, especially during the slated timings.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Italy on May 6 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding the slated labor action and allot for disruptions to transport services nationwide. 

Current Situation – On May 3, seven individuals, aged between 22 and 28 years old, were shot around 23:45 (local time) in the Beaudottes district of Sevran, in the Seine-Saint-Denis department. One victim died at the scene, three sustained serious injuries, and three were lightly injured. The two assailants reportedly fled in a vehicle. Police indicated this was likely related to drug trafficking score-settling. 

Assessment & Forecast – The authorities’ claims are credible, given that the use of firearms and the targeted nature of the attack are in line with gang-related crime in France. That Sevran, especially the Beaudottes district, has higher rates of gang violence also supports this. Indeed, anti-drug raids linked to the Interior Ministry’s ongoing anti-drug trafficking operation, known as “Place nette XXL,” have taken place in the city in recent months. With the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics, similar operations can be expected in Sevran and the broader Seine-Saint-Denis department, as officials work to crack down on drug-related crime. However, the shooting is liable to raise concerns about authorities’ ability to ensure visitors’ safety during the games, especially at venues in Seine-Saint-Denis. 

Current situation – On May 3, four youths dressed in black attacked and seriously injured Matthias Ecke, Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for the center-left Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) party, in Dresden, Saxony. Prior to this, the assailants physically assaulted a 28-year-old campaigner for the Bundnis 90/Die Grunen. Police suspect the assailants are associated with the far-right scene. Protests have been called in Berlin and Dresden for March 5. 

Assessment & Forecast – That the attack took place in Saxony, a stronghold for the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD), coupled with the victims being members of left-wing parties, supports the police’s statements. Additionally, that the assailants were all dressed in black and targeted individuals in separate locations suggests this was premeditated. The attacks, which follow the May 2 assault of two Die Grunen politicians in Essen, reflect an upward trend in political violence. Indeed, 2,790 attacks on representatives or members of political parties were recorded in 2023, double the figure in 2019. Given the European Parliament Elections in June, similar attacks are likely in the coming weeks, with further protests denouncing the far-right expected in the coming days. 

Current Situation – On May 4, at least six people were injured in Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks on Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Debris caused injuries and damaged critical infrastructure and residential buildings. In Belgorod, at least five people were injured and 30 residences were damaged following an explosion. On May 5, Russian rockets killed two people in the eastern Ukrainian village of Pokrovsk and Russian forces captured the village of Arkhanhelske, Donetsk region. 

Assessments & Developments – The casualties in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Pokrovsk, and Belgorod reflect the growing threat posed to civilians on both sides amid intensified air strikes from Moscow and Kyiv. While Russia has been known to target civilian areas, the casualties in Belgorod are likely due to Ukrainian UAVs intended for military targets being shot down over residential areas. Further, Russia’s intensified assaults coincide with the upcoming Victory Day celebration on May 9 and are likely an attempt to showcase victories before the annual event. The capture of Arkhanhelske illustrates how Russia is pushing the front line west of Avdiivka, underscoring Moscow’s strategy to capitalize on Ukraine’s limited ammunition ahead of US aid.  

Current Situation – According to May 4 reports, incumbent Sadiq Khan of the Labour Party won his third consecutive term as mayor of London in the May 2 mayoral election. Khan received 43.8 percent of the vote share, winning nine of the 14 constituencies. The Conservative (Tory) party received 32.7 percent of the vote. 

Assessments & Forecast – The election represents another setback for the Tory party, with the governing party also losing ten councils and 448 councilors in the local elections, held simultaneously. This is especially so, given reports indicating that the mayoral election would be close, with the Tory party also capitalizing on opposition to Khan’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) scheme. Further, while reports indicate that the Labour Party has lost some support among the Muslim community in the local elections due to the party’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Khan has been able to increase his support base. That said, Khan’s reelection may also garner backlash from certain segments of the public, given allegations made against him over his lack of response to disruptive and violent pro-Palestinian protests in London.