Mexico Tactical: Maclovio Rojas residents announce additional blockades, sit-ins in multiple parts of Tijuana as of May 23; allot for disruptions to travel, fuel supply

May 2024

8:31 UTC

Current Situation

As of May 23, residents of Maclovio Rojas Ejido in Tijuana municipality of Baja California have announced that they would expand ongoing blockades to other parts of the municipality.
Protestors have announced that they would carry out a sit-in demonstration at Garita de Otay ( the border crossing point between Tijuana and Otay Mesa in San Diego, CA, USA) from an unconfirmed time on May 23 and an indefinite closure of the Carretera Libre Tijuana-Tecate beginning on May 24. The exact location of the gathering for the highway blockade remains unconfirmed as of writing.
Residents began the blockade on May 19 by setting up a camp outside the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) storage plant in Playas de Rosarito, which supplies fuel to Rosarito, Tijuana and Tecate. Protestors also announced a blockade at the entry and exit points of the Ensenada port on May 22. However, there are no reports of blockades at the port, on May 22 and as of writing.
The protests aim to obtain a response from authorities regarding the granting of land titles to residents and the regularization of ownership of around 4,000 properties. They also coincide with the visit of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to Baja California from May 24-25.
Maclovio Rojas residents had carried out a blockade of the Carretera Libre Tijuana-Tecate and outside Instituto de Movilidad Sustentable (IMOS, Sustainable Mobility Institute), situated along the highway from April 23-29. Blockades were suspended after authorities agreed to formalize the granting of land ownership.
Meanwhile, the ongoing blockade of the PEMEX plant has caused fuel shortages in around 35 percent of gas stations in Tijuana, as per May 22 reports. Conversely, Baja California authorities have denied any fuel shortage in the state.

Assessments & Forecast

The announcement of additional blockades suggests intensified efforts of protesters to draw attention of local and federal authorities to the issue, particularly that of President AMLO. To that end, protests intended to cause disruptions to traffic and fuel supply can be anticipated to continue in the coming days until the demands of the protesters are met.
Judging by turnout in previous demonstrations, the upcoming sit-ins and blockades are liable to draw a turnout in the high dozens to low hundreds each.
Based on precedent, the demonstrations are likely to transpire peacefully. However, a prompt security response can be expected near the protests, particularly near Garita de Otay, which includes a border crossing and a checkpoint into the USA, as well as near the Ensenada port, should the protesters gather at the said locations.
Meanwhile, events slated to be attended by AMLO during his Baja California visit are also likely to see reinforced security arrangements to cater to spontaneous protests.
Although the state authorities denied fuel shortage in a likely attempt to mitigate panic buying, fuel supply disruptions are expected to persist in the coming days in Tijuana, Tecate and Rosarito, until the blockade outside the PEMEX plant in Playas de Rosarito is lifted. This will also likely result in long lines at gas stations, potentially causing temporary traffic disruptions.
On the other hand, significant disruptions to traffic at the Otay border crossing remain unlikely due to the seemingly limited mobilization capabilities of the protesting group.
To that end, a blockade at the Ensenada port may cause slight delays in sea-borne freight movement on April 23 and in the coming days. However, large-scale disruptions to port activities are unlikely.
The blockade of the Tijuana-Tecate highway will likely cause medium-scale disruptions to vehicular travel along the route for the duration of the protest, evidenced by the April 23-29 blockades.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Tijuana, Baja California on May 23 and in the coming days are advised to allot for disruptions to fuel supply due to the ongoing PEMEX plant blockade, as well as, to vehicular traffic along the Tijuana-Tecate highway.
Allot for temporary disruptions to traffic along the border crossing in Garita de Otay due to the slated sit-in protest.

High

Tijuana, Mexico

Low

Credible

Current Situation

As of May 23, residents of Maclovio Rojas Ejido in Tijuana municipality of Baja California have announced that they would expand ongoing blockades to other parts of the municipality.
Protestors have announced that they would carry out a sit-in demonstration at Garita de Otay ( the border crossing point between Tijuana and Otay Mesa in San Diego, CA, USA) from an unconfirmed time on May 23 and an indefinite closure of the Carretera Libre Tijuana-Tecate beginning on May 24. The exact location of the gathering for the highway blockade remains unconfirmed as of writing.
Residents began the blockade on May 19 by setting up a camp outside the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) storage plant in Playas de Rosarito, which supplies fuel to Rosarito, Tijuana and Tecate. Protestors also announced a blockade at the entry and exit points of the Ensenada port on May 22. However, there are no reports of blockades at the port, on May 22 and as of writing.
The protests aim to obtain a response from authorities regarding the granting of land titles to residents and the regularization of ownership of around 4,000 properties. They also coincide with the visit of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to Baja California from May 24-25.
Maclovio Rojas residents had carried out a blockade of the Carretera Libre Tijuana-Tecate and outside Instituto de Movilidad Sustentable (IMOS, Sustainable Mobility Institute), situated along the highway from April 23-29. Blockades were suspended after authorities agreed to formalize the granting of land ownership.
Meanwhile, the ongoing blockade of the PEMEX plant has caused fuel shortages in around 35 percent of gas stations in Tijuana, as per May 22 reports. Conversely, Baja California authorities have denied any fuel shortage in the state.

Assessments & Forecast

The announcement of additional blockades suggests intensified efforts of protesters to draw attention of local and federal authorities to the issue, particularly that of President AMLO. To that end, protests intended to cause disruptions to traffic and fuel supply can be anticipated to continue in the coming days until the demands of the protesters are met.
Judging by turnout in previous demonstrations, the upcoming sit-ins and blockades are liable to draw a turnout in the high dozens to low hundreds each.
Based on precedent, the demonstrations are likely to transpire peacefully. However, a prompt security response can be expected near the protests, particularly near Garita de Otay, which includes a border crossing and a checkpoint into the USA, as well as near the Ensenada port, should the protesters gather at the said locations.
Meanwhile, events slated to be attended by AMLO during his Baja California visit are also likely to see reinforced security arrangements to cater to spontaneous protests.
Although the state authorities denied fuel shortage in a likely attempt to mitigate panic buying, fuel supply disruptions are expected to persist in the coming days in Tijuana, Tecate and Rosarito, until the blockade outside the PEMEX plant in Playas de Rosarito is lifted. This will also likely result in long lines at gas stations, potentially causing temporary traffic disruptions.
On the other hand, significant disruptions to traffic at the Otay border crossing remain unlikely due to the seemingly limited mobilization capabilities of the protesting group.
To that end, a blockade at the Ensenada port may cause slight delays in sea-borne freight movement on April 23 and in the coming days. However, large-scale disruptions to port activities are unlikely.
The blockade of the Tijuana-Tecate highway will likely cause medium-scale disruptions to vehicular travel along the route for the duration of the protest, evidenced by the April 23-29 blockades.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Tijuana, Baja California on May 23 and in the coming days are advised to allot for disruptions to fuel supply due to the ongoing PEMEX plant blockade, as well as, to vehicular traffic along the Tijuana-Tecate highway.
Allot for temporary disruptions to traffic along the border crossing in Garita de Otay due to the slated sit-in protest.

High

Tijuana, Mexico

Low

Credible

Mexico Tactical: Maclovio Rojas residents announce additional blockades, sit-ins in multiple parts of Tijuana as of May 23; allot for disruptions to travel, fuel supply

Current Situation

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

Current Situation

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

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