28
May 2024
10:53 UTC
Mexico Tactical: Unionized teachers to hold 24-hour strike, associated blockades in Mexico City from 09:00 (local time) on May 28; maintain heightened vigilance
Current Situation:
- Teachers affiliated with the Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Education (CNTE), a national education workers union, have called for a 24-hour strike and associated blockades and protest actions across Mexico City (CDMX) on May 28.
- Details regarding the associated protest actions and road blockades starting from 09:00 (local time) onwards in CDMX are as follows:
- Metro Misterios towards Cuauhtemoc, Miguel Hidalgo, Alvaro Obregon, Cuajimalpa , Gustavo A. Madero, and Azcapotzalco municipalities.
- Metro Chabacano towards Benito Jureaz, Iztacalco, Venustiano Carranza, and Coyoacan municipalities.
- Monumento al Caminero towards Milpa Alta, Tlahuac, Tlalpan, Magdalena Contreras, and Xochimilco municipalities.
- In Iztapalapa, the unions will protest in front of the Funciones de la Direccion General de Servicios Educativos Iztapalapa (DGSEI) office building.
- Protesters will then proceed to a sit-in at Zocalo, CDMX at 14:00.
- The labor action is being held to demand a rise in salaries for education workers. Additional demands include a repeal of the Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE) law and the Unidad del Sistema para la Carrera de los Maestros (USICAMM) law which dismissed teachers during former President Enrique Pena Nieto’s administration. Negotiations are ongoing between teachers and the government to repeal educational reforms of 2007.
Assessments & Forecast:
- Based on previous strikes by CNTE, including the 24-hour strike on May 24 and 15, coupled with reports on teachers’ unions in Oaxaca including Frente de Organizaciones Oaxaquenas (Foro), possibly participating in the strike, reflects that the labor action is expected to be widely adhered to. This will in turn cause significant disruption to public education services nationwide on May 28.
- Given CNTE’s mobilization capabilities and given precedent, the associated protest actions in Mexico City are anticipated to witness a turnout in the high hundreds to low thousands. As witnessed on May 24, spontaneous protests extending support to the teacher’s demands are possible in major cities of Oaxaca, Morelia, Michoacan, Chiapas, and Zacatecas states among others. These protests will likely attract turnouts in the low-to-mid hundreds.
- While the potential for unrest has been previously low in the past year, the upcoming protests carry the potential to escalate into localized unrest manifesting as scuffles between security personnel and protestors, especially if the latter forcibly removes the road blockades. In addition, protestors are liable to vandalize political parties’ headquarters, public buildings, and landmarks, with protestors throwing Molotov cocktails and breaking windows of headquarters of various political parties in Mexico City on May 24.
- As such, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of the aforementioned protest locations, especially near government buildings near Zocalo in Mexico City, to monitor proceedings. Should protests escalate, police authorities are likely to use crowd dispersal methods such as tear gas and water cannons and conduct mass arrests.
- Moreover, temporary disruptions to cargo transportation as well as pedestrian and vehicular travel can be anticipated in the vicinity of the associated protests and road blockades throughout the day. Additionally, ad-hoc blockades near petroleum stations will likely cause a temporary shortage of fuel, with over 20 petrol stations disrupted amid a CNTE-led blockade in Chiapas on May 24.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Mexico City on May 28 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the potential for vandalism and localized scuffles between protestors and security personnel.
- Allot for disruptions to public education services due to the labor action and travel due to the associated blockades and protests.
- Allot extra time for travel and seek alternate routes to minimize delays.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
High
AFFECTED AREA
Mexico City, Mexico
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation:
- Teachers affiliated with the Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Education (CNTE), a national education workers union, have called for a 24-hour strike and associated blockades and protest actions across Mexico City (CDMX) on May 28.
- Details regarding the associated protest actions and road blockades starting from 09:00 (local time) onwards in CDMX are as follows:
- Metro Misterios towards Cuauhtemoc, Miguel Hidalgo, Alvaro Obregon, Cuajimalpa , Gustavo A. Madero, and Azcapotzalco municipalities.
- Metro Chabacano towards Benito Jureaz, Iztacalco, Venustiano Carranza, and Coyoacan municipalities.
- Monumento al Caminero towards Milpa Alta, Tlahuac, Tlalpan, Magdalena Contreras, and Xochimilco municipalities.
- In Iztapalapa, the unions will protest in front of the Funciones de la Direccion General de Servicios Educativos Iztapalapa (DGSEI) office building.
- Protesters will then proceed to a sit-in at Zocalo, CDMX at 14:00.
- The labor action is being held to demand a rise in salaries for education workers. Additional demands include a repeal of the Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE) law and the Unidad del Sistema para la Carrera de los Maestros (USICAMM) law which dismissed teachers during former President Enrique Pena Nieto’s administration. Negotiations are ongoing between teachers and the government to repeal educational reforms of 2007.
Assessments & Forecast:
- Based on previous strikes by CNTE, including the 24-hour strike on May 24 and 15, coupled with reports on teachers’ unions in Oaxaca including Frente de Organizaciones Oaxaquenas (Foro), possibly participating in the strike, reflects that the labor action is expected to be widely adhered to. This will in turn cause significant disruption to public education services nationwide on May 28.
- Given CNTE’s mobilization capabilities and given precedent, the associated protest actions in Mexico City are anticipated to witness a turnout in the high hundreds to low thousands. As witnessed on May 24, spontaneous protests extending support to the teacher’s demands are possible in major cities of Oaxaca, Morelia, Michoacan, Chiapas, and Zacatecas states among others. These protests will likely attract turnouts in the low-to-mid hundreds.
- While the potential for unrest has been previously low in the past year, the upcoming protests carry the potential to escalate into localized unrest manifesting as scuffles between security personnel and protestors, especially if the latter forcibly removes the road blockades. In addition, protestors are liable to vandalize political parties’ headquarters, public buildings, and landmarks, with protestors throwing Molotov cocktails and breaking windows of headquarters of various political parties in Mexico City on May 24.
- As such, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of the aforementioned protest locations, especially near government buildings near Zocalo in Mexico City, to monitor proceedings. Should protests escalate, police authorities are likely to use crowd dispersal methods such as tear gas and water cannons and conduct mass arrests.
- Moreover, temporary disruptions to cargo transportation as well as pedestrian and vehicular travel can be anticipated in the vicinity of the associated protests and road blockades throughout the day. Additionally, ad-hoc blockades near petroleum stations will likely cause a temporary shortage of fuel, with over 20 petrol stations disrupted amid a CNTE-led blockade in Chiapas on May 24.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Mexico City on May 28 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the potential for vandalism and localized scuffles between protestors and security personnel.
- Allot for disruptions to public education services due to the labor action and travel due to the associated blockades and protests.
- Allot extra time for travel and seek alternate routes to minimize delays.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
High
AFFECTED AREA
Mexico City, Mexico
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
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