Developing

19
Jul 2024
3:58 UTC

Israel Alert (UPDATE): Houthis claim UAV attack targeting Tel Aviv during overnight hours of July 18-19; constitutes escalation by Iran-led Axis of Resistance

Current Situation:

  • Following a preliminary investigation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated during the early morning hours of July 19 that the explosion in central Tel Aviv during the overnight hours was caused by an aerial target [unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV], which did not trigger Color Red sirens.  
  • One civilian was killed, and several others were wounded in the incident.  
  • IDF forces are operating at the scene of the incident on Ben Yehuda Street near the US Embassy Branch compound.  
  • The IDF stated that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) will enhance aerial patrols to protect Israel’s airspace. 
  • The IDF stated that no changes to the Home Front Command’s (HFC) guidelines have been introduced as of the time of writing.  
  • The Military Spokesperson of the Yemen-based Houthi movement, Yahya Saree, issued a second statement explicitly stating that the “qualitative operation” the Houthi movement has conducted during the overnight was against Tel Aviv.  

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The Houthis’ explicit statement regarding Tel Aviv constitutes an official claim of responsibility, which will likely be followed with further details on the operation by the Yemen-based movement. As we mentioned in the previous report, this constitutes a significant escalation by the “Iran-led Axis of Resistance” factions vis-a-vis Israel and highlights gaps in Israel’s aerial defense umbrella and its ability to identify incoming aerial threats to Tel Aviv, and by extension, other areas of the country.   
  2. In the immediate term, in light of the Houthi movement’s claim of responsibility, Lebanon-based Hezbollah is unlikely to claim or associate itself with the attack, which decreases the potential for an Israel-Hezbollah flare-up as of the time of writing. That being said, it still increases the potential for retaliatory Israeli attacks against either of Iran’s regional allies as part of the escalatory dynamic that this incident represents.

Recommendations:

  1. Remain extra vigilant and monitor the situation for further developments. Follow the instructions of the IDF’s Home Front Command (HFC) on July 19 and over the coming days. 
  2. Contact MAX’s Intel team and/or [email protected] for further consultation. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Tel Aviv; Israel
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Current Situation:

  • Following a preliminary investigation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated during the early morning hours of July 19 that the explosion in central Tel Aviv during the overnight hours was caused by an aerial target [unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV], which did not trigger Color Red sirens.  
  • One civilian was killed, and several others were wounded in the incident.  
  • IDF forces are operating at the scene of the incident on Ben Yehuda Street near the US Embassy Branch compound.  
  • The IDF stated that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) will enhance aerial patrols to protect Israel’s airspace. 
  • The IDF stated that no changes to the Home Front Command’s (HFC) guidelines have been introduced as of the time of writing.  
  • The Military Spokesperson of the Yemen-based Houthi movement, Yahya Saree, issued a second statement explicitly stating that the “qualitative operation” the Houthi movement has conducted during the overnight was against Tel Aviv.  

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The Houthis’ explicit statement regarding Tel Aviv constitutes an official claim of responsibility, which will likely be followed with further details on the operation by the Yemen-based movement. As we mentioned in the previous report, this constitutes a significant escalation by the “Iran-led Axis of Resistance” factions vis-a-vis Israel and highlights gaps in Israel’s aerial defense umbrella and its ability to identify incoming aerial threats to Tel Aviv, and by extension, other areas of the country.   
  2. In the immediate term, in light of the Houthi movement’s claim of responsibility, Lebanon-based Hezbollah is unlikely to claim or associate itself with the attack, which decreases the potential for an Israel-Hezbollah flare-up as of the time of writing. That being said, it still increases the potential for retaliatory Israeli attacks against either of Iran’s regional allies as part of the escalatory dynamic that this incident represents.

Recommendations:

  1. Remain extra vigilant and monitor the situation for further developments. Follow the instructions of the IDF’s Home Front Command (HFC) on July 19 and over the coming days. 
  2. Contact MAX’s Intel team and/or [email protected] for further consultation. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Tel Aviv; Israel
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed