Current Situation: As of August 18, Hurricane Ernesto has weakened to a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 110 kmph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that TS Ernesto may regain hurricane strength late on August 18 or early August 19 as it approaches the US northeastern coast and Canada‘s Newfoundland and Labrador. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Bermuda, with Ernesto bringing strong winds, rainfall, and coastal flooding. Swells from TS Ernesto are expected to affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the US East Coast, and Atlantic Canada through at least August 19. Over 15,000 customers in Bermuda are without power, and flight delays are reported at Bermuda’s LF Wade International Airport (BDA) on August 18. Environment Canada has issued rainfall warnings for parts of Ontario (including Toronto) and Saskatchewan. The US National Weather Service (NWS) has issued warnings for floods for New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania; excessive heat with temperatures reaching 43-49 degrees Celsius for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma on August 18. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) in Seattle, WA, is experiencing delays of about 120 minutes due to adverse weather. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the Caribbean and North America on August 18 and over the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates.    

Current Situation: Unionized pilots of Aerolineas Argentinas, affiliated with Asociacion de Pilotos de Linea Aereas (APLA) have called for a nationwide strike and demonstrations at airports between August 19-30, to demand an increase in wages. Protests will be held at Aeroparque Internacional Jorge Newbery (AEP) in Buenos Aires from 09:00-11:30 (local time) on August 19 and from 06:00-09:00 on August 30, the Aeropuerto Internacional Ministro Pistarini (EZE) in Eizeza, Greater Buenos Aires from 21:00 on August 22 and 28, and the Aeropuerto Internacional de Cordoba (COR) in Cordoba and the Aeropuerto Internacional Gobernador Francisco Gabrielli (MDZ) in Las Heras from 10:00-13:00. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given APLA’s mobilizational capabilities, the strike is likely to be widely adhered to, prompting significant disruptions to airline services, at the AEP, EZE, COR and MDZ airports, on the protest days, potentially causing congestion in airports as passengers wait for alternative arrangements, with lingering disruptions anticipated on the days between the planned demonstrations. Meanwhile, protests are likely to witness a turnout between the mid-to-high dozens. These are expected to transpire peacefully and therefore unlikely to affect travelers’ entry into the airport.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Argentina on August 19-30 are advised to reconfirm itineraries and allot for disruptions to air travel on the days when the protest gatherings are planned due to the accompanying labor action. 

Current Situation: The US Coast Guard’s Sector Miami in collaboration with the US Department of Homeland Security has announced the enforcement of three temporary security zones near Mar-a-Lago Resort in Palm Beach, FL, from August 19- November 30.  The first is the west zone, covering the waters of Lake Worth Lagoon from the southern tip of Everglades Island to 1,000 yards south of the Southern Boulevard Bridge. The second is the center zone, which includes the same lagoon area but extends to the eastern shoreline and Fisherman Island, restricting all unauthorized entry. The third is the east zone, spanning the Atlantic Ocean from Banyan Road to Ocean View Road and extending 1,000 yards eastward. These measures are in place due to the presence of high-profile individuals under the protection of the US Secret Service.  Law enforcement vessels will display flashing blue lights when the zones are active, and public advisories will be broadcast on VHF channel 16. Details of the advisory are available on Homeport. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned zones in Palm Beach, FL from August 19-November 30 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel and supply chain operations due to slated temporary safe zone restrictions.  

Current Situation: The Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held at the United Center and McCormick Place in Chicago, IL from August 19-22. Multiple protests denouncing the Biden administration’s support for Israel and advocating reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights have been slated to coincide with the DNC. These include marches from Michigan Avenue and Wacker Drive to Grant Park, from Union Park to Park 578, and from Humboldt Park to United Center at varying times on the aforementioned days. Security measures and travel restrictions are in effect ahead of and during the DNC. 

Assessments & Forecast: While most Pro-Palestinian protests are anticipated to draw turnouts in the low-to-mid tens of thousands, and carry the potential for unrest, protests over other issues are expected to draw turnouts in the low-to-mid thousands and transpire peacefully. Separately, sloganeering or attempts to block DNC attendees, including vehicular convoys carrying high-profile attendees, can occur outside the security perimeter. Besides, a bolstered security presence is anticipated citywide, particularly near the prescribed security zones. Significant disruptions to traffic can be expected across Chicago through August 23.  

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in downtown Chicago until August 23 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance around the United Center, McCormick Place, and designated protest areas due to the potential for localized unrest stemming from the slated protests during the DNC. 

Current Situation: The 42nd India Independence Day Parade will be held from Madison Ave. E40th St. To at E27th St in New York City, NY at 12:00 (local time) on August 18, prompting the New York Police Department (NYPD) to announce road closures. Several civil society groups including asians4palestinenyc have called for a counter-protest at the New York Public Library steps on the same day at 10:00, to denounce a parade float depicting a controversial Hindu temple, with opponents calling the float “a symbol of anti-Muslim hate”. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given precedent, the parade is likely to draw a turnout in the high hundreds-to-low thousands, while the counter-protest is likely to attract high dozens-to-low hundreds of protestors. Notwithstanding the parade’s contentious nature due to the “anti-Muslim” float, both events are expected to transpire peacefully. That said, given that the counter-protest is just a block away from the parade, localized scuffles or verbal altercations between the parade organizers and counter-protesters can be anticipated at the parade’s starting point. Given this, a bolstered security presence and significant disruptions to traffic can be anticipated along Madison Avenue.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in New York City, NY on August 18 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel along Madison Avenue due to the slated India Independence Day Parade and due to the counter-protest outside NYPL from the morning hours onwards. 

Current Situation: Per August 16 reports, the Asamblea Legislativa approved a law annulling the presidential party primaries at the request of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) in a bid to prioritize the judicial elections scheduled for December 1, 2024. 

Assessment & Forecast: Despite broad support for TSE’s request from various political alliances, including the opposition, the suspension potentially preventing former president Evo Morales, leader of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo’s (MAS) evista faction, from running in 2025 is likely to be perceived as an institutional crackdown of the evistas. This is especially as it follows the December 29, 2023 Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional ruling, prohibiting presidential reelection beyond two terms, effectively disqualifying Morales’ candidacy, with Morales already having governed for three terms. Although Morales’ disqualification doesn’t improve President Luis Arce’s potential electoral standing given the economic crisis Arce’s administration faces, such legislative and judicial actions undermine Morales’ and MAS’ electoral prospects, compounded by intra-MAS conflicts, as shown by altercations between MAS factions before a July 10 multi-party meeting. Consequently, evistas are likely to protest by installing blockades in La Paz and Cochabamba in the coming weeks. 

Current Situation: On August 17, around 20 individuals stole an unspecified amount of money from Brink’s branch, a security services company in Rancagua, O’Higgins region, prompting a security operation. During the police pursuit, gunfire was exchanged, injuring four officers. The suspects used miguelitos (tire spikes) and gas bombs and burned at least four random vehicles near the branch. 17 suspects have been arrested as of August 17. 

Assessments and Forecast: The involvement of a large group of at least 20 people and 10 vehicles in the robbery indicates it was premeditated and likely carried out by an established organized criminal group. Since a majority of such coordinated robberies with disruptive tactics like throwing miguelitos and installing roadblocks along escape routes are usually seen in Santiago, the incident suggests these activities are expanding to areas beyond Santiago. Although not completely an anomaly, given similar tactics in small-scale ATM robberies in Coquimbo and Temuco in May, large-scale robberies outside Santiago are rare. Moreover, arresting 17 of the 20 suspects within 24 hours is unusual, as suspects typically evade capture and delay police response with disruptive tactics. 

Current Situation: Per August reports, the Ejercito Zapatista de Liberacion Nacional (EZLN) condemned mega-infrastructural projects like the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT) and the Tren de Maya as potential “commercial corridors” for organized crime, alleging that cartels are competing to control extortion rights over these projects in Chiapas. 

Assessments & Forecast: Although these statements from Radio Zapatista’s four ideological publications are unlikely to be linked to recent events, claims of cartels competing for territory are plausible. This is supported by past violence in southern Chiapas by Cartel de Sinaloa and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion over an inactive mining camp in Chicomuselo with high-grade barite in 2023. With the CIIT—comprising a 1,096 km railway, 15 industrial zones including in Chiapas, and four ports—projected to become a major nearshoring hub by 2033, the area’s lucrativeness for organized crime is expected to rise especially amid the absence of a robust state apparatus and cartels growing need to diversify their revenue sources. This will likely increase security costs for businesses and potentially deter investment unless the state intervenes effectively. 

Current Situation: On August 17, Cartel del Noreste (CDN) members traveling in 15 trucks opened fire at military personnel in Nuevo Laredo’s Las Arboledas and La Union neighborhoods in Tamaulipas. Multiple CDN members were reportedly killed in the ensuing clashes, which spreading to Bulevar Colosio, Carretera a Piedras Negras, and towards the Aeropuerto Internacional Quetzalcoatl (NLD) airport. In response, Coahuila closed its borders with Tamaulipas and security was bolstered in Nuevo Laredo and neighboring Hidalgo and Salinillas. 

Assessments & Forecast: The violence reflects the critical security situation in Nuevo Laredo, considered CDN’s uncontested stronghold, further supported by the closure of 191 Oxxo stores in Nuevo Laredo between July 25-August 1 following extortion-related threats of violence by CDN. On the same note, CDN’s latest attack was likely in retaliation to the bolstered security, promised by authorities in response to the threats against Oxxo. With authorities sending more reinforcements, similar clashes to assert dominance in the region remain likely on major roadways such as Boulevard Colosio Norponiente and Carretera Aeropuerto among others. Meanwhile, security checkpoints are likely to delay travel in the region over the coming days. 

Current Situation: Per August 16 reports, Open AI, a US-based generative AI company, disabled a network of Iranian accounts that used its chatbot to generate online articles and social media comments to influence the upcoming US presidential elections. The posted content also suggested that former President Donald Trump was being censored on social media among other topics such as the Israel-Gaza conflict. 

Assessments & Forecast: The latest development reflects persistent attempts by alleged foreign actors based in Iran, Russia, and China to spread disinformation and influence the U.S. political landscape. This is supported by a technology firm reporting on June 3 that it had detected pro-Russian accounts proliferating a fabricated video showing violence at the Paris Olympics. While foreign actors have increasingly used generative AI to spread disinformation, the limited social media engagement with these efforts suggests improved monitoring and counteraction of online propaganda. Such tactics are expected to persist, targeting Trump, Vice President and Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris, and President Joe Biden ahead of November 5, to influence outcomes aligning with the actors’ countries’ policies and undermine public trust in the electoral process.