Current Situation – Activists associated with the opposition conservative Partise Demokratike (PD) party have called for a protest at Tirana City Hall at 11:00 (local time) on November 15. The protest has been called to denounce alleged financial malpractice in municipal contracts and to call for the resignation of Tirana Mayor Erion Veliaj. This protest is part of an ongoing series of protests by PD.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on previous protests organized by the PD party on the same issue, the slated protest will likely garner a turnout in the high dozens to low hundreds. Given heightened sentiments, the demonstration carries a heightened potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police. Protesters may throw projectiles, including Molotov cocktails, targeting police and public property. Should unrest escalate, authorities are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including tear gas, water cannons, and conducting arrests. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are likely during the late morning hours in the vicinity of the Tirana City Hall.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Tirana on November 15 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the City Hall during the late morning hours. Allot for disruptions to travel near the location.   

Current Situation – Protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict will be held in multiple cities across Europe, including in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Sweden and the UK from November 14-17. In London, UK, a pro-Palestinian protest supported by multiple pro-Palestinian and climate groups will take place outside of the British Museum from 12:00 on November 16. Further details are available here.  

Assessments & Forecast – Given the protest matter and support by multiple prominent pro-Palestinian and left-wing groups, the pro-Palestinian climate protest in London is likely to witness a combined turnout ranging from the high thousands to low tens of thousands. The other slated protests are likely to witness turnouts ranging from the low hundreds to mid thousands, with Vienna expecting the highest attendance. Any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry a heightened potential for unrest, which are likely to manifest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police and/or potential counter-protesters. In the event of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal methods. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Europe on November 14-17 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations. 

Current Situation – On November 15, unionized teachers and students will stage a nationwide strike. The strike will impact teaching, administrative, technical, and auxiliary (ATA) staff in educational institutions. Teachers will protest outside the Ministero dell’Istruzione (MIM) in Rome at 15:30 (local time). Another associated protest will be held at Piazza Capranica in Rome; however the timing remains unknown. Separately, a student union will hold a protest at Piazza Verdi in Bologna from 10:00. Details regarding the protests can be found here.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent, the protest in Piazza Capranica and in Bologna will likely garner turnouts in the low-high thousands to high tens of thousands each. The teachers’ protest in front of the Ministry will likely garner a turnout in the high hundreds to low thousands. While the MIM protest is expected to be peaceful, there is potential for unrest at Piazza Capranica and in Bologna.  Authorities are likely to increase security at protest sites. Meanwhile, considering the anticipated disruptions to education services, the strike is liable to impact employee availability for other sectors and services. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Bologna and Rome on November 15 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the abovementioned locations due to the protests. Allot for disruptions to education-related services nationwide due to the slated strike by unionized education workers. 

Current Situation – Spain’s national weather service, Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), has maintained red warnings, the highest on a three-tier scale, for extreme rainfall and flooding in Andalusia and Valencia as of November 14. Over 4,000 people remained evacuated in Malaga, where heavy rainfall disrupted train services and flooded key roads and facilities. Schools and universities are closed in Malaga, Granada, and Valencia. Details on key developments regarding on-ground disruptions can be found here.  

Assessments & Forecast – Due to the heavy rain forecast, continued flooding can be expected in major cities and motorways in southern and eastern Spain, severely disrupting pedestrian and vehicular movement. Landslides are also possible, and further damage to dams and drainage systems is anticipated. Further evacuations are expected in heavily affected areas of Valencia, Andalusia, and Castellon. Moreover, the associated flooding is liable to lead to hazardous conditions on roadways, hampering vehicular traffic in Valencia and Andalusia. Delays and cancellations of public transport systems and long-distance services are also likely. Additionally, flight departures and arrivals at Malaga-Costa del Sol Airport (AGP) and Valencia Airport (VLC) may be delayed. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in southern and eastern Spain on November 14 and in the coming days are advised to remain abreast of the authorities’ updates regarding weather-related alerts. Allot for disruptions to travel and public utility services. 

Current Situation – According to November 12 reports, activists associated with the environmentalist group Tyre Extinguishers (TX) deflated tires of multiple sports utility vehicles (SUVs) in the Wattmanngasse area of Vienna during the early morning hours (local time) of November 11. According to the police, 24 SUVs were affected, although the group itself claims to have targeted 50 SUVs. TX claims SUVs are detrimental to the environment and SUV ownership increases risky driving behaviors. Activists left leaflets on affected vehicles stating the same.  

Assessments & Forecast – The development reiterates the sustained threat posed by climate activists targeting SUVs and high-end vehicles perceived to be environmentally harmful in Austria. Multiple such incidents have been recorded in the country before, including in January and August 2024. The risk posed by the group is exacerbated by its decentralized nature and its lack of internal hierarchy that allows individuals and groups to stage independent actions under the group’s name by following general instructions. Similar incidents are expected to recur in Vienna, with the group primarily expected to target high-end vehicles in residential areas during the night or early morning hours. 

Current Situation – On November 12, the Parquet National Anti-Terrorist (PNAT), the public prosecutor’s office for terrorist cases, announced a judicial investigation into a 16-year-old French teenager of Chechen background, suspected of plotting an Islamist terrorist attack in France. 

Assessments & Forecast – The suspect’s age is notable as it reiterates the trend of youth radicalization in France – evidenced by the indictment of 14 minors in anti-terrorism proceedings in 2024 and 15 in 2023, compared with 2-3 in previous years. Moreover, the suspect’s background points to the continued susceptibility of individuals from Russia’s North Caucasus region, especially Chechnya, to Islamist propaganda. This is also supported by Chechen nationals carrying out two Islamist attacks in recent years; the mass stabbing at a school in Arras in 2023 and the beheading of Samuel Paty in 2020. More recently, authorities arrested a Chechen teenager plotting an “Islamist-inspired” attack on the Paris Summer Olympics. The development further highlights the elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in France, with the Vigipirate national threat level remaining on “Emergency Attack.” Indeed, according to PNAT, as of September, Islamists account for 80 percent of current anti-terrorism proceedings 

Current Situation – On November 13, Mayor Sara Funaro’s Cabinet approved a 10-point plan to address overtourism in Florence. This includes banning key boxes used for short-term private rentals on historic buildings and restricting loudspeakers used by tour guides. Furthermore, Funaro is pressing the national government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to introduce a 120-day cap on short-term rental stays, which has been repeatedly denied. 

Assessments & Forecast – Florence’s new measures reflect growing local dissatisfaction with overtourism, exacerbated by housing shortages and overcrowded public spaces. Following the G7 tourism ministers meeting in Florence on November 13-15, the Italian government aims to position Italy as a leading global tourist destination, with Florence already ranked the 4th most-visited city in the world. This underscores the conflict of interest between the government and the city’s priorities and is likely to intensify tensions with PM Meloni. This is liable to raise existing discontent with locals, increasing the potential for protests in the near term – as already seen in other cities in Italy, Greece, and Spain. Moreover, the measures themselves will likely lead to disruptions and increased costs for travelers in Florence. 

Current Situation – On November 12, the Tushino district court in Moscow sentenced a Russian pediatrician to over five years in a penal colony for making alleged “anti-war” statements and disseminating “fake news” about the Russian armed forces. She was arrested on February 2 after the mother of a young patient accused her of calling Russian soldiers “legitimate targets” of Ukrainian forces. The pediatrician has denied the accusations. 

Assessments & Forecast – The development reiterates Moscow’s continued crackdown on domestic dissent since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. At least 1,057 individuals have faced criminal prosecution for similar “anti-war” or “fake news” comments about the Russian armed forces since 2022, 98 of which were reported between February to September 2024. Moscow likely also publicizes such arrests given that this has the perceived advantage of deterring further anti-war dissent, as well as any challenges to President Putin’s authority. The threat of similar detentions targeting the political opposition, anti-war activists, and journalists considered critical of the conflict will remain elevated in the medium term. Authorities are likely to maintain heightened surveillance of online posts to detect such dissent. 

Current Situation – On November 13, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed responsibility for the car explosion that reportedly killed Valery Trankovsky, the Chief of Staff of the 41st brigade of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in Sevastopol, Crimea. The explosion, reportedly carried out following week-long surveillance of Trankovsky, involved an improvised explosive device (IED) attached underneath the official’s vehicle. SBU referred to Trankovsky as a “war criminal” who ordered missile strikes on civilian areas, including the July 2022 strike in Vinnytsia. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent of similar SBU-claimed car bombing attacks targeting Moscow-appointed officials, it is likely that the attack was carried out by pro-Ukraine partisan groups in Sevastopol under SBU’s guidance. The involvement of the Crimea-based partisan group ATESH is not ruled out, given their strong presence in Sevastopol. With Ukrainian partisans reported to have carried out three assassinations of Russian officials since September, the risk of similar targeted attacks is liable to persist. The attack is also liable to exacerbate prevalent Russian fears of pro-Ukraine elements targeting BSF assets, expediting the transition of the BSF base from Sevastopol to Krasnodar.