Current Situation – Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather service, has issued orange alerts, the second-highest level on a three-tier scale, in multiple countries on December 15-17. In Croatia, orange alerts for heavy winds are in effect in the Middle Dalmatia region through at least December 16. In Germany, orange alerts for heavy winds are ongoing in multiple regions, including Kreis Hildburghausen, through at least December 17. In Poland, orange alerts for heavy winds are in effect in the eastern coastal zone until 17:00 (local time) on December 15. Details on alerts in effect are available here. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in the aforementioned countries in Europe on December 15 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of the authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. 

Current Situation – Environmental activists affiliated with multiple groups, including La Voie est Libre, are slated to protest at 15:00 (local time) at Allees Jean Jaures in Toulouse on December 15. The protest is being called to denounce the building of the A69 highway and demand the immediate suspension of work.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent and the mobilization capacity of the organizers, the protest is expected to draw a turnout ranging in the high hundreds to low thousands. Given opposition to the A69 highway project, the protest carries a heightened risk for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police. In the event of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including deploying tear gas and conducting mass arrests. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of the protest location to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic should be anticipated in the vicinity of Allees Jean Jaures from the afternoon hours onwards.

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Toulouse on December 15 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the protest. Allot for travel-related disruptions near Allees Jean Jaures during the afternoon hours onwards. 

Current Situation – Members of the Georgian diaspora will stage a protest in at Karl-Stutzel-Platz in Munich at 14:30 (local time) on December 15. The protest aims to denounce the Georgian Parliament’s election of Mikheil Kavelashvili of the anti-EU and pro-Russia Georgian Dream (GD) party as president on December 14.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilizational capabilities of the organized group and potential participation by Ukrainian and Russian diasporas, the protest is likely to attract a turnout ranging in the mid to high hundreds. Further, spontaneous anti-Russia or Georgian solidarity protests are liable to manifest in cities regionwide in the coming days. While the protest is expected to transpire largely peacefully, isolated instances of unrest cannot be ruled out given heightened sentiments over the protest issue. Such incidents may manifest as localized scuffles between protesters and police and/or potential counterprotesters. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed in the vicinity of Karl-Stutzel-Platz as a precautionary measure and to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the protest location from the afternoon hours onward.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Munich on December 15 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Karl-Stutzel-Platz due to the latent potential for unrest during the slated protest. Allot for disruptions to travel near Karl-Stutzel-Platz. 

Current Situation – Farmers associated with various agricultural unions will stage demonstrations in Madrid and Toledo on December 16-17. On December 16, unionized farmers and ranchers will stage a protest in front of the Ministerio de Agricultura in Madrid from 11:00 (local time). Separately, unionized farmers will stage a protest at Plaza de San Vicente in Toledo from 11:00 on December 17. The protestors are denouncing the perceived lack of effective responses to the challenges the agricultural sector faces.

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilization capability of the groups involved, the protest in Madrid is expected to witness a turnout in the low to mid hundreds. The protest in Toledo is likely to witness a turnout from high dozens to low hundreds. Given heightened sentiments, coupled with precedent, both protests carry a latent potential for unrest, including clashes between farmers, police, and disgruntled commuters. A bolstered security presence is likely near the abovementioned protest locations during the morning hours. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including conducting arrests. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Madrid and Toledo on December 16-17 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the protest locations due to the latent potential for unrest during the farmers’ protest. Allot for associated disruptions to travel near protest locations. 

Current Situation – On December 13, German authorities reported sightings of multiple unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) above the Ramstein US Air Force base on December 3-4. This follows media reports indicating similar sightings above “sensitive” industrial and military facilities in Germany in recent weeks, including arms manufacturing, chemical, and nuclear plants. Separately, on December 13, the Belgian Ministry of Defense indicated suspected Russian involvement in increasing “suspicious” behaviors targeting military sites in 2024. 

Assessments & Forecast – Brussels’ allegations of Russian involvement are credible given previous incidents of attempted sabotage and espionage targeting European military infrastructure. While the details on the UAV sightings remain unknown as of writing, with authorities yet to indicate involvement of foreign actors, Moscow’s involvement cannot be ruled out. This is especially so given that authorities in other European countries have alleged Russian reconnaissance activity targeting logistical and military facilities, including November 20 UAV sightings above US Air Force installments in the UK and suspected sabotage of Baltic Sea underwater communication infrastructure on November 27. Given reports of Moscow’s increasing hybrid warfare tactics, such sabotage attempts are likely to persist in the near term. 

Current Situation – On December 14, a 22-year-old French national turned himself in to police after killing five individuals between 15:15-16:15 (local time) in a shooting spree in Loon-Plage and Wormhout, near Dunkirk, Nord department. The victims include a public transport manager, two Iraqi-Kurd migrants, and two security guards reported to be former colleagues of the suspect. In his car, police found four weapons, which the assailant legally owned. The suspect was not known to the police, with the motive unclear as of writing.

Assessments & Forecast – The shooting spree is highly likely to have been premeditated, as the suspect was heavily armed and carried multiple firearms, including a rifle. The precise, execution-style shootings indicate the assailant had prior training and/or experience with firearms. While the motive remains unclear, his statements to police regarding his relationship with his former colleagues at a security company suggest he was at least partially motivated by personal grievances. However, reports indicating that he deliberately targeted migrants also point to possible anti-immigrant sentiments and broader ideological factors in the attack. In the coming days, nationwide vigils and protests against gun violence are likely. 

Current Situation – On December 12, at approximately 20:00 (local time), a 36-year-old man trespassed onto the grounds of the Iranian Consulate General in Frankfurt, smashed over 20 panes of glass, and attempted to set himself on fire. Police overpowered the man before he could ignite the flammable liquid. Reports indicate that the suspect was intoxicated and in psychological distress. He was taken to a psychiatric facility. A political motive has not been confirmed, and investigations are ongoing.

Assessments & Forecast – While the suspect was reportedly intoxicated and in psychological distress, the deliberate act of trespassing onto the Iranian Consulate General’s grounds with flammable liquid indicates premeditation and suggests potential political motives. This incident mirrors a pattern of attacks on Iranian diplomatic missions, such as the April 19 incident in Paris, where a man entered the Iranian consulate wearing a fake explosive vest and was later detained. Regardless of motive, this incident, coupled with recent attacks by mentally unstable individuals in France, Germany, and the Netherlands reiterates the credible threat of violence posed by such individuals, given the difficulty in monitoring these individuals and their unpredictable nature.

Current Situation – On December 14, far-right extremists attacked a center-left Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) party stand during the evening hours (local time) at Lichterfelde train station in Berlin. SPD parliamentary group leader Carolyn Macmillan was reportedly thrown to the ground and kicked in the face. Five people were arrested. Prior to the incident, verbal disputes were recorded at the stand. Authorities indicated that the attackers were on their way to a right-wing demonstration. 

Assessments & Forecast – The incident highlights an increasing trend of attacks targeting party representatives in Germany. According to a report from the Bundestag, 1,965 crimes targeting political party representatives were reported nationwide in the first six months of 2024, compared to 797 crimes during the same period in 2023. Considering the surge in violence ahead of the elections for the European Parliament in June, violent attacks on politicians will likely increase in the lead-up to the snap-elections scheduled in February 2025. Given precedent, violence is likely to manifest during campaigning activities, including rallies. With that, calls for increased security for politicians are likely in the immediate term, as was also the case in June.  

Current Situation – On December 13, in Turin, student and pro-Palestinian groups protested against Italian defense firms’ involvement in international conflicts. Demonstrators gathered in Piazza XVIII Dicembre, blocked roads, and threw stones and eggs at police and buildings. Clashes occurred near the Polytechnic University as protesters attempted to enter the premises, throwing stones and smoke bombs. Protesters tried to breach the offices of military contractors and vandalized the gate of Radiotelevisione Italiana (RAI), the national broadcasting companies. Graffiti with pro-Palestinian messages condemning military ties was reported.

Assessments & Forecast – The developments highlight the challenges faced by authorities in managing large, volatile protests, even amid heightened security measures and strict policing. Furthermore, the targeting of defense contractors aligns with the regionwide trend of pro-Palestinian activists targeting institutions perceived to have affiliations with Israel. This is further evidenced by the November 13 student occupation of an Italian defense firm’s headquarters in Turin. As such, authorities are likely to further heighten their readiness and security posture at future demonstrations, particularly those involving pro-Palestinian groups and/or opposition to defense industry activities. This is especially likely in Turin, where unrest has occurred repeatedly.

Current Situation – On December 12, a British immigration tribunal upheld the decision to bar a suspected Chinese spy, referred to as H6, from the UK due to national security concerns. H6 had developed a close relationship with Prince Andrew, Duke of York, who ceased contact after receiving government advice. Prince Andrew met H6 through official channels, emphasizing that no sensitive matters were discussed. H6, linked to China’s United Front Work Department, an arm of the Chinese Communist Party that is used to influence foreign entities, is accused of attempting to influence UK political affairs. 

Assessments & Forecast – This case highlights the UK’s vulnerability to foreign influence targeting high-profile figures. The proximity of a Chinese agent to Prince Andrew, who allegedly attended events at Buckingham Palace and Windsor Castle at Prince Andrew’s request, underscores the sophistication of these operations. Moreover, the incident supports warnings by the MI5 regarding the threat of Chinese espionage in 2023-2024. Given the involvement of Prince Andrew, the incident will prompt stricter security measures and greater scrutiny of Chinese influence among high-profile individuals, including politicians and members of the royal family.