Security Operations

02
Jan 2025
13:20 UTC

Uganda Alert: Security forces foil militant plot planned by ADF affiliates amid operations in Wakiso District, Kawempe Division in Kampala per December 31 reports

Current Situation

  • Sources from December 31, 2024 indicate that the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) foiled a suspected militant plot by individuals allegedly linked to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), planning to conduct a series of attacks in Kampala. 
  • The UPDF allegedly arrested several people and recovered an unspecified number of weapons and explosives in a security operation in Bwaise, Kazinga, and Kiganda areas within Kawempe Division as well as in Mutundwe and Nansana, in the neighboring Wakiso District.
  • A UPDF official reportedly claimed that the operation was launched after several days of surveillance and intelligence-gathering in coordination with other security agencies, leading to the discovery of the suspects’ hideout. 
  • The arrestees were allegedly actively recruiting people and stockpiling equipment and other materials to carry out their plans. 
  • As of writing, further details surrounding the incident remain unconfirmed with a lack of additional reports on the matter. 
  • Meanwhile, on December 31, 2024, President Yoweri Museveni announced in his State of the Nation address that the ADF had been destroyed in the country, attributing this success to the continued efforts of the UPDF and other security agencies.

Source: Nilepost

Assessments & Forecast

  1. This follows the discovery of four ready-to-use IEDs on May 4, 2024, and comes after several IED-related incidents in Kampala in late 2023, all linked to the ADF. In this context, the location of the security operations in Kampala and its immediate vicinities is extremely significant. This reflects the persistent presence of Islamic State (IS) affiliate ADF cells able to stockpile weapons and material to produce explosives, which could be used for imminent attacks in Kampala. This comes as the most recent claimed IS-ADF attacks within Ugandan territory were recorded in Bugiri District, Eastern Region in October 2024 and in Nakasongola, Central Region 100 km from Kampala in August 2024. Given the precedent and the fact that the ADF has had a permanent presence in eastern DRC rather than inside Uganda, it is plausible that the suspects may have been ADF or IS sympathizers rather than official members of these groups. 
  2. To that end, the development highlights the ADF’s continued efforts to infiltrate Kampala to conduct high-profile IED attacks and the timing of the operations suggests that the attacks were likely deliberately planned to take place during the festive season and particularly on New Year’s Eve. This is given the symbolic importance of this period for Christians in addition to the operational opportunity to inflict maximum casualties when targeting crowded public locations, entertainment venues, restaurants, or bars, which are known to be a preferred target for Islamist militants. The occurrence of this during the sensitive festive season can also explain the allocation of significant resources to such a security operation that included several days of surveillance and intelligence-gathering measures.
  3. This also demonstrates the security forces’ ability to identify the potential threat and prevent it from materializing through close coordination between several agencies, which the authorities will use to highlight the UPDF’s success and bolster public confidence in the security forces’ ability to protect Kampala. That said, the relatively limited details reported and the absence of additional media coverage raise some doubts over the credibility of the original report, in addition to the general tendency of security agencies to exaggerate the scope and achievements of such operations. This may align with President Museveni’s statement claiming that the ADF has been “destroyed”. 
  4. FORECAST: These developments might be followed with additional security operations in and around Kampala to ensure the safety and security of the capital and identify any potential presence of additional militant cells. This may include bolstered surveillance of vehicles entering the capital as well as inspections of public transportation vehicles and main stations. While the security forces have been able to foil this plot and most other previously planned IED attacks since the November 2021 double suicide attack in central Kampala, the recent developments indicate that the threat of militancy in Kampala will persist in the coming weeks and months. The precedent suggests that even if an attack does eventually materialize, it will likely include the use of relatively small, crude IEDs. 

Recommendations

  1. Travel to Kampala can continue while exercising increased vigilance and adhering to stringent security precautions regarding criminal and militancy threats.
  2. Remain cognizant of your surroundings, including any suspicious behavior of individuals as well as items that look out of place, such as unattended bags or containers. Immediately alert authorities of any suspicious behavior or items.
  3. Avoid nonessential travel in the border areas with DRC due to the presence of the ADF as well as other rebel groups and the potential spillover of armed conflict.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Kampala, Uganda
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Unconfirmed

Current Situation

  • Sources from December 31, 2024 indicate that the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) foiled a suspected militant plot by individuals allegedly linked to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), planning to conduct a series of attacks in Kampala. 
  • The UPDF allegedly arrested several people and recovered an unspecified number of weapons and explosives in a security operation in Bwaise, Kazinga, and Kiganda areas within Kawempe Division as well as in Mutundwe and Nansana, in the neighboring Wakiso District.
  • A UPDF official reportedly claimed that the operation was launched after several days of surveillance and intelligence-gathering in coordination with other security agencies, leading to the discovery of the suspects’ hideout. 
  • The arrestees were allegedly actively recruiting people and stockpiling equipment and other materials to carry out their plans. 
  • As of writing, further details surrounding the incident remain unconfirmed with a lack of additional reports on the matter. 
  • Meanwhile, on December 31, 2024, President Yoweri Museveni announced in his State of the Nation address that the ADF had been destroyed in the country, attributing this success to the continued efforts of the UPDF and other security agencies.

Source: Nilepost

Assessments & Forecast

  1. This follows the discovery of four ready-to-use IEDs on May 4, 2024, and comes after several IED-related incidents in Kampala in late 2023, all linked to the ADF. In this context, the location of the security operations in Kampala and its immediate vicinities is extremely significant. This reflects the persistent presence of Islamic State (IS) affiliate ADF cells able to stockpile weapons and material to produce explosives, which could be used for imminent attacks in Kampala. This comes as the most recent claimed IS-ADF attacks within Ugandan territory were recorded in Bugiri District, Eastern Region in October 2024 and in Nakasongola, Central Region 100 km from Kampala in August 2024. Given the precedent and the fact that the ADF has had a permanent presence in eastern DRC rather than inside Uganda, it is plausible that the suspects may have been ADF or IS sympathizers rather than official members of these groups. 
  2. To that end, the development highlights the ADF’s continued efforts to infiltrate Kampala to conduct high-profile IED attacks and the timing of the operations suggests that the attacks were likely deliberately planned to take place during the festive season and particularly on New Year’s Eve. This is given the symbolic importance of this period for Christians in addition to the operational opportunity to inflict maximum casualties when targeting crowded public locations, entertainment venues, restaurants, or bars, which are known to be a preferred target for Islamist militants. The occurrence of this during the sensitive festive season can also explain the allocation of significant resources to such a security operation that included several days of surveillance and intelligence-gathering measures.
  3. This also demonstrates the security forces’ ability to identify the potential threat and prevent it from materializing through close coordination between several agencies, which the authorities will use to highlight the UPDF’s success and bolster public confidence in the security forces’ ability to protect Kampala. That said, the relatively limited details reported and the absence of additional media coverage raise some doubts over the credibility of the original report, in addition to the general tendency of security agencies to exaggerate the scope and achievements of such operations. This may align with President Museveni’s statement claiming that the ADF has been “destroyed”. 
  4. FORECAST: These developments might be followed with additional security operations in and around Kampala to ensure the safety and security of the capital and identify any potential presence of additional militant cells. This may include bolstered surveillance of vehicles entering the capital as well as inspections of public transportation vehicles and main stations. While the security forces have been able to foil this plot and most other previously planned IED attacks since the November 2021 double suicide attack in central Kampala, the recent developments indicate that the threat of militancy in Kampala will persist in the coming weeks and months. The precedent suggests that even if an attack does eventually materialize, it will likely include the use of relatively small, crude IEDs. 

Recommendations

  1. Travel to Kampala can continue while exercising increased vigilance and adhering to stringent security precautions regarding criminal and militancy threats.
  2. Remain cognizant of your surroundings, including any suspicious behavior of individuals as well as items that look out of place, such as unattended bags or containers. Immediately alert authorities of any suspicious behavior or items.
  3. Avoid nonessential travel in the border areas with DRC due to the presence of the ADF as well as other rebel groups and the potential spillover of armed conflict.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Kampala, Uganda
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Unconfirmed

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Related Reports

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  • MILITANCY_TERRORISM
    Militancy/Terrorism
    Uganda Alert: Islamic State claims its militants killed two Christians in IED attack in Buikwe District, Central Region per January 14 publication
  • MILITANCY_TERRORISM
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    Uganda Alert: Islamic State claim to kill ten soldiers during engagement in Misanga, Central Region on January 3