13
Feb 2026
6:41 UTC
Bahrain Tactical: Opposition groups call for commemorative gatherings to mark ‘February 14 Revolution’ on February 13-14; maintain heightened vigilance
Current Situation:
- Several anti-government Shiite opposition groups have called for gatherings across Bahrain on February 13-14 to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the February 14, 2011, nationwide anti-government protests.
- The anti-government “February 14 Coalition” group has called on its supporters to “rise up” to “liberate” Bahrain from foreign influence and external alliances.
- The group has called on individuals to protest across “all cities and towns” in Bahrain; however, details regarding the timing and locations of the demonstrations remain unavailable at the time of writing.
Source: Coalition 14 ; News Bahrain
Assessments & Forecast:
- The February 14 Revolution, also known as the “Pearl Revolution” or “Day of Rage,” was inspired by the Arab Spring and began on February 14, 2011, at the erstwhile Pearl Roundabout in Manama. Shiite protesters demanded political reforms, expanded civil liberties, an end to religious discrimination, and the establishment of a constitutional monarchy in Bahrain. Authorities subsequently arrested political activists and opposition leaders, with hundreds reportedly still detained in Jaw Prison. While the government classifies these individuals as security threats, opposition groups regard them as political prisoners.
- In recent years, Bahraini opposition groups have conducted sporadic protests, typically in outlying areas of Manama, with participation generally limited to several dozen individuals. These demonstrations have primarily occurred in Shiite-majority areas, including Sitra Island, as well as Sanabis, Karranah, Abu Saiba, and Diraz. Approximately 152 instances of low-level civil unrest, often involving tire burning and Molotov cocktail attacks targeting security patrols, were recorded in these areas in 2024, rising to around 207 incidents in 2025, indicating persistent anti-government sentiment within segments of the population. Bahraini authorities, however, have maintained a firm stance against dissent, periodically employing riot-control measures and conducting arrests.
- FORECAST: Given the symbolic importance of the anniversary and precedent, upcoming protests are likely to mobilize larger crowds than typically observed. Demonstrations are expected throughout the day nationwide, particularly in Shiite-majority villages. In Manama, gatherings of individuals in the low dozens may occur near the al-Farooq Junction, the former site of Pearl Roundabout. Despite the relative absence of major unrest during recent commemorations, security forces are expected to significantly increase their presence across Bahrain, including in Manama as a precautionary measure. Traffic disruptions are likely as commemorative events take place on February 13-14.
Recommendations:
- Travel to Manama’s business and diplomatic districts, as well as Seef District, can continue at this time while adhering to basic security precautions regarding civil unrest and low-level militancy.
- Those operating or residing in Bahrain on February 13-14 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance given the increased potential for opposition activity and unrest.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
nationwide; Bahrain
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation:
- Several anti-government Shiite opposition groups have called for gatherings across Bahrain on February 13-14 to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the February 14, 2011, nationwide anti-government protests.
- The anti-government “February 14 Coalition” group has called on its supporters to “rise up” to “liberate” Bahrain from foreign influence and external alliances.
- The group has called on individuals to protest across “all cities and towns” in Bahrain; however, details regarding the timing and locations of the demonstrations remain unavailable at the time of writing.
Source: Coalition 14 ; News Bahrain
Assessments & Forecast:
- The February 14 Revolution, also known as the “Pearl Revolution” or “Day of Rage,” was inspired by the Arab Spring and began on February 14, 2011, at the erstwhile Pearl Roundabout in Manama. Shiite protesters demanded political reforms, expanded civil liberties, an end to religious discrimination, and the establishment of a constitutional monarchy in Bahrain. Authorities subsequently arrested political activists and opposition leaders, with hundreds reportedly still detained in Jaw Prison. While the government classifies these individuals as security threats, opposition groups regard them as political prisoners.
- In recent years, Bahraini opposition groups have conducted sporadic protests, typically in outlying areas of Manama, with participation generally limited to several dozen individuals. These demonstrations have primarily occurred in Shiite-majority areas, including Sitra Island, as well as Sanabis, Karranah, Abu Saiba, and Diraz. Approximately 152 instances of low-level civil unrest, often involving tire burning and Molotov cocktail attacks targeting security patrols, were recorded in these areas in 2024, rising to around 207 incidents in 2025, indicating persistent anti-government sentiment within segments of the population. Bahraini authorities, however, have maintained a firm stance against dissent, periodically employing riot-control measures and conducting arrests.
- FORECAST: Given the symbolic importance of the anniversary and precedent, upcoming protests are likely to mobilize larger crowds than typically observed. Demonstrations are expected throughout the day nationwide, particularly in Shiite-majority villages. In Manama, gatherings of individuals in the low dozens may occur near the al-Farooq Junction, the former site of Pearl Roundabout. Despite the relative absence of major unrest during recent commemorations, security forces are expected to significantly increase their presence across Bahrain, including in Manama as a precautionary measure. Traffic disruptions are likely as commemorative events take place on February 13-14.
Recommendations:
- Travel to Manama’s business and diplomatic districts, as well as Seef District, can continue at this time while adhering to basic security precautions regarding civil unrest and low-level militancy.
- Those operating or residing in Bahrain on February 13-14 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance given the increased potential for opposition activity and unrest.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
nationwide; Bahrain
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
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TravelPersian Gulf Tactical: IRGC-N conducts live fire exercise in Strait of Hormuz, to partially close Strait for few hours on February 17; take necessary precautions
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DevelopingGlobal Tactical: Social media site X/Twitter facing outage issues in multiple regions as of February 16; allot for disruptions
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