17
Oct 2023
7:29 UTC
Belgium Alert (UPDATE): Attacker reportedly detained during morning hours (local time) on October 17 following shooting of Swedish nationals in central Brussels; continue to minimize nonessential outdoor travel
Current Situation
- On October 16, two Swedish nationals were killed and another injured, after a gunman riding a scooter and armed with an assault rifle opened fire on them at Boulevard d’Ypres in Brussels at around 19:00 (local time).
- Local reports indicate that police have located and shot an individual in Schaerbeek. Multiple weapons, including a weapon resembling the assault rifle used in the shooting, were recovered at the scene. While authorities have not confirmed if the individual shot is the perpetrator, the Belgian Federal Prosecutor’s Office stated there is a “strong presumption” that this is the case.
- The shooting incident occurred ahead of a scheduled Euro 2024 qualifier football match between Belgium and Sweden at the King Baudouin Stadium, located approximately 4.8 kilometers away from Boulevard d’Ypres. The two individuals who were killed were reportedly wearing Swedish football jerseys at the time of the attack. Authorities placed the stadium on lockdown and canceled the football match.
- Local reports indicate that the gunman is a Tunisian asylum seeker who has been living illegally in Belgium since 2019. Following the attack, he reportedly posted a video on a social media platform, claiming to be a member of the Islamic State (IS) and a “fighter for Allah”. He also claimed to have carried out the attack to “avenge Muslims.” Eyewitness accounts suggest the gunman shouted “Allahu Akbar” before the shots were fired.
- Amid the ongoing manhunt, authorities have raised the terror alert level in Brussels to ‘Level Four’, the highest level, directly from ‘Level Two’. Meanwhile, the alert level for the rest of Belgium has been raised from Level Two to Level Three, the second highest.
- According to officials from Belgium’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office, the nationality of the victims was probably the reason for their being targeted. They added that there is nothing to suggest a possible link between the shooting and the ongoing hostilities in the Israel-Palestinian territories. However, local reports indicate the gunman had previously expressed solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on social media.
- Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has called on all Swedes in Belgium to be vigilant and follow the instructions of Belgian authorities closely.
- Meanwhile, Belgian police have informed that they have heightened security measures at places where Swedes meet in Brussels. While they have not specified the exact locations, local reports indicate that authorities have closed down European schools in Brussels which are attended by children of Swedish diplomats and officials, as of October 17. Additionally, other places deemed to be “sensitive” are also under special police surveillance.
- France has also “strengthened” security checks at the Franco-Belgian border, following the shooting incident.
Assessments & Forecast
- Although authorities have shot an individual suspected to be the perpetrator, the threats posed to the public, particularly Swedish nationals, remains heightened, especially since the police have not confirmed if he acted alone. Moreover, given the extensive media coverage given to the incident, it is possible that other radicalized Islamists may carry out copycat attacks in Belgium and across Europe in the coming hours and days. Indeed, this attack comes only three days after an Islamist-inspired stabbing in northern France on October 13.
- That the gunman specifically targeted Swedish nationals indicates that he was likely motivated by the highly publicized Quran-burning incidents in Sweden. This is further evidenced by the statements issued by the Belgian Federal Prosecutor’s Office. That said, it is also possible that the attacker was also catalyzed to attack by the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas, with the gunman having expressed solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza before. This is even more so, given that both Hamas and Al Qaeda recently issued a call to Muslims to carry out attacks globally, following the outbreak of hostilities.
- While authorities have not stated if the gunman acted alone or was part of a local IS group, based on the available details, the suspect was likely radicalized on social media platforms. Moreover, the suspect’s origin and legal situation are consistent with the profile of other radicalized lone Islamist attackers in Belgium and across Europe. That said, the suspect’s modus operandi is notable, as most lone actors are known to resort to rudimentary methods such as stabbings and vehicular ramming to carry out attacks. With that, the possibility that the suspect acquired his rifle from local Islamist networks cannot be ruled out. Alternatively, with organized criminal groups known to have a significant presence in Belgium, it is also possible that the suspect acquired the firearm through such networks.
- As such, the incident reiterates the elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe, with multiple factors, including the Quran burnings and the Israel-Hamas conflict, having heightened this threat. FORECAST: Most such attacks are likely to manifest as lone actor attacks, considering they require less planning. That said, the potential for coordinated and more complicated attack plots to be planned in the near-to-medium term cannot be ruled out. However, such coordinated plots are less likely to reach fruition due to the increased likelihood of detection. Potential attacks are most likely to manifest in the form of stabbings, shootings, or vehicular ramming.
- FORECAST: In addition to Swedish nationals and establishments, future attacks are also likely to target Danish and Dutch nationals, especially since Quran-burning incidents have been reported in Denmark and the Netherlands over the past months. Moreover, due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Jewish establishments, including synagogues and cultural centers, Israeli and US Embassies, schools, churches, major public squares, festive events, and tourist hotspots are highly vulnerable to Islamist attacks.
- That authorities raised the terror alert to the highest level in Brussels immediately after the attack was likely intended to bolster security measures throughout the city, considering that the perpetrator was still at large at the time. However, the recent attack in France was also a probable contributing factor to this decision, as well as the decision to raise the national threat level. FORECAST: Considering heightened regionwide concerns, with this being the second Islamist attack in three days, authorities are unlikely to lower the terror alert level in the coming weeks. Indeed, neighboring countries, especially the Netherlands, are liable to raise their national security levels in the near term, given the recent attacks coupled with the calls for violence by Al-Qaeda and Hamas.
Recommendations
- Minimize nonessential outdoor travel in Brussels over the coming hours on October 17 due to the continued law enforcement operations and the possibility of unconfirmed accomplices carrying out further attacks.
- Across Belgium, maintain heightened vigilance near Danish, Dutch, Jewish, Israeli, and Swedish establishments, as well as major public spaces, transportation hubs, and festive events with large crowds due to the potential for attacks.
- Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism or Israel, as well as Sweden – including the Israeli and Swedish flags. Those that wear the traditional Jewish head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
- Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
- Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase their awareness of threats on social media through the use of threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from fringe online groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
- For more information on the heightened Islamist terrorist threat across Europe, see MAX’s recent analysis here.
- For further questions and risk assessments, please contact intel@max-security.com.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Brussels, Belgium
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation
- On October 16, two Swedish nationals were killed and another injured, after a gunman riding a scooter and armed with an assault rifle opened fire on them at Boulevard d’Ypres in Brussels at around 19:00 (local time).
- Local reports indicate that police have located and shot an individual in Schaerbeek. Multiple weapons, including a weapon resembling the assault rifle used in the shooting, were recovered at the scene. While authorities have not confirmed if the individual shot is the perpetrator, the Belgian Federal Prosecutor’s Office stated there is a “strong presumption” that this is the case.
- The shooting incident occurred ahead of a scheduled Euro 2024 qualifier football match between Belgium and Sweden at the King Baudouin Stadium, located approximately 4.8 kilometers away from Boulevard d’Ypres. The two individuals who were killed were reportedly wearing Swedish football jerseys at the time of the attack. Authorities placed the stadium on lockdown and canceled the football match.
- Local reports indicate that the gunman is a Tunisian asylum seeker who has been living illegally in Belgium since 2019. Following the attack, he reportedly posted a video on a social media platform, claiming to be a member of the Islamic State (IS) and a “fighter for Allah”. He also claimed to have carried out the attack to “avenge Muslims.” Eyewitness accounts suggest the gunman shouted “Allahu Akbar” before the shots were fired.
- Amid the ongoing manhunt, authorities have raised the terror alert level in Brussels to ‘Level Four’, the highest level, directly from ‘Level Two’. Meanwhile, the alert level for the rest of Belgium has been raised from Level Two to Level Three, the second highest.
- According to officials from Belgium’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office, the nationality of the victims was probably the reason for their being targeted. They added that there is nothing to suggest a possible link between the shooting and the ongoing hostilities in the Israel-Palestinian territories. However, local reports indicate the gunman had previously expressed solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on social media.
- Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has called on all Swedes in Belgium to be vigilant and follow the instructions of Belgian authorities closely.
- Meanwhile, Belgian police have informed that they have heightened security measures at places where Swedes meet in Brussels. While they have not specified the exact locations, local reports indicate that authorities have closed down European schools in Brussels which are attended by children of Swedish diplomats and officials, as of October 17. Additionally, other places deemed to be “sensitive” are also under special police surveillance.
- France has also “strengthened” security checks at the Franco-Belgian border, following the shooting incident.
Assessments & Forecast
- Although authorities have shot an individual suspected to be the perpetrator, the threats posed to the public, particularly Swedish nationals, remains heightened, especially since the police have not confirmed if he acted alone. Moreover, given the extensive media coverage given to the incident, it is possible that other radicalized Islamists may carry out copycat attacks in Belgium and across Europe in the coming hours and days. Indeed, this attack comes only three days after an Islamist-inspired stabbing in northern France on October 13.
- That the gunman specifically targeted Swedish nationals indicates that he was likely motivated by the highly publicized Quran-burning incidents in Sweden. This is further evidenced by the statements issued by the Belgian Federal Prosecutor’s Office. That said, it is also possible that the attacker was also catalyzed to attack by the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas, with the gunman having expressed solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza before. This is even more so, given that both Hamas and Al Qaeda recently issued a call to Muslims to carry out attacks globally, following the outbreak of hostilities.
- While authorities have not stated if the gunman acted alone or was part of a local IS group, based on the available details, the suspect was likely radicalized on social media platforms. Moreover, the suspect’s origin and legal situation are consistent with the profile of other radicalized lone Islamist attackers in Belgium and across Europe. That said, the suspect’s modus operandi is notable, as most lone actors are known to resort to rudimentary methods such as stabbings and vehicular ramming to carry out attacks. With that, the possibility that the suspect acquired his rifle from local Islamist networks cannot be ruled out. Alternatively, with organized criminal groups known to have a significant presence in Belgium, it is also possible that the suspect acquired the firearm through such networks.
- As such, the incident reiterates the elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe, with multiple factors, including the Quran burnings and the Israel-Hamas conflict, having heightened this threat. FORECAST: Most such attacks are likely to manifest as lone actor attacks, considering they require less planning. That said, the potential for coordinated and more complicated attack plots to be planned in the near-to-medium term cannot be ruled out. However, such coordinated plots are less likely to reach fruition due to the increased likelihood of detection. Potential attacks are most likely to manifest in the form of stabbings, shootings, or vehicular ramming.
- FORECAST: In addition to Swedish nationals and establishments, future attacks are also likely to target Danish and Dutch nationals, especially since Quran-burning incidents have been reported in Denmark and the Netherlands over the past months. Moreover, due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Jewish establishments, including synagogues and cultural centers, Israeli and US Embassies, schools, churches, major public squares, festive events, and tourist hotspots are highly vulnerable to Islamist attacks.
- That authorities raised the terror alert to the highest level in Brussels immediately after the attack was likely intended to bolster security measures throughout the city, considering that the perpetrator was still at large at the time. However, the recent attack in France was also a probable contributing factor to this decision, as well as the decision to raise the national threat level. FORECAST: Considering heightened regionwide concerns, with this being the second Islamist attack in three days, authorities are unlikely to lower the terror alert level in the coming weeks. Indeed, neighboring countries, especially the Netherlands, are liable to raise their national security levels in the near term, given the recent attacks coupled with the calls for violence by Al-Qaeda and Hamas.
Recommendations
- Minimize nonessential outdoor travel in Brussels over the coming hours on October 17 due to the continued law enforcement operations and the possibility of unconfirmed accomplices carrying out further attacks.
- Across Belgium, maintain heightened vigilance near Danish, Dutch, Jewish, Israeli, and Swedish establishments, as well as major public spaces, transportation hubs, and festive events with large crowds due to the potential for attacks.
- Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism or Israel, as well as Sweden – including the Israeli and Swedish flags. Those that wear the traditional Jewish head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
- Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
- Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase their awareness of threats on social media through the use of threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from fringe online groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
- For more information on the heightened Islamist terrorist threat across Europe, see MAX’s recent analysis here.
- For further questions and risk assessments, please contact intel@max-security.com.