• Multiple explosive attacks continued to be recorded across the country on January 10, especially in Quito, Esmeraldas, and Guayaquil.  
• The levels of violence seen on January 8-9 have relatively decreased after armed forces intensified operations and arrested 329 gang members nationwide.  
• However, a security threat remains in the country’s main cities, including in Quito and Guayaquil, with retaliatory attacks largely manifesting as explosive attacks in the near term.
• While border security reinforcements are expected to prevent a rapid spillover of gang violence to neighboring countries, disruptions to border travel and trade are likely. 
• The approval of two security-related resolutions illustrates the wide political consensus over security matters and marks a partial success for President Noboa’s administration amid the crisis. 

Quito 

• Explosive attacks were recorded across multiple locations in Quito on January 10. These include the El Blanqueado Community Police Unit (UPC), located in Quitumbe, south of Quito, on two separate pedestrian bridges located on Avenida Panamericana Norte and on Avenida Simon Bolevar in northeast Quito, resulting in structural damage. No injuries were recorded.  
• Vehicle fires were recorded in the Monteserrin sector, on Calle Las Higueras and Avenida Eloy Alfaro Avenue, in the north of Quito. The police also found an undetonated explosive device inside a vehicle parked outside the El Inca prison, in the north.  
• Several establishments temporarily suspended operations as of January 10 along the Mejia and Imbabura streets, some sections of Avenida Pichincha in La Marin, and on Chile and Cuenca streets. 

Guayaquil  

• In Isla Trinitaria, south of Guayaquil, an occupied vehicle was attacked in an explosion in the 22 de Abril Cooperative area at 22:00 (local time), killing three of the occupants instantly.  
• The police killed an armed gang member on Avenida Perimetral in Trinitaria Norte, in Guayaquil on January 10. The deceased criminal was armed with two firearms, three feeders, and an explosive device. 
• A Brazilian national, who was kidnapped by gangs on January 9, was released after a police rescue operation on January 10. However, the victim’s family members were forced to pay part of the ransom demand prior to the rescue operation. 

Esmeraldas City  

• According to social media reports, a shooting unfolded at the Carcel Provisional de Esmeraldas prison on January 10. However, further details on the casualties remain unconfirmed.  
• The presence of armed individuals in the La Colectiva and Nueva Esperanza Norte sectors, northwest of Esmeraldas city, prompted a military incursion in the aforementioned areas on January 10, resulting in the arrest of two armed men and three fugitives who escaped from the Esmeraldas prison.  
• Authorities set fire to a hideout of the Los Tiguerones criminal group in the La Guacharaca sector and announced that similar attacks against criminal safehouses will be recorded in the coming days. 
• At least 18 vehicles have been incinerated and multiple explosive attacks have been recorded across Esmeraldas province, especially in the Esmeraldas, Atacames, and Quininde cantons since January 8.  
• In addition, President Daniel Noboa terminated the Jorge Benitez’s function as the Governor of the Esmeraldas province and replaced him with Colonel Javier Buitron, on grounds of a “lack of preparation” amid the escalating violence in the province that claimed the lives of 11 people since January 8.  

Other Locations 

• In El Oro province, a military raid was carried out in the city of Huaquillas, located along Ecuador’s southern border with Peru. Residents of Casacay reported that armed individuals placed an explosive on a bridge in the La Cocha sector. Meanwhile, bus services from Cuenca, Azuay province to El Oro are only commuting as far as Sarayunga and Quera, near the borders of Azuay-El Oro. 
• In Los Rios province, three police officers who were kidnapped from Quevado city on January 8 were located in the Valencia canton of the same province on January 10, after three days of an intense rescue operation. 
• In Pedernales, Manabi province, a citizen who had been kidnapped since January 7 was released. A suspect in this crime was arrested and found in possession of a firearm and drugs. 
• In Yaguachi, Guayas province, a foreign national was killed in an armed attack in Marcelino Mariduena area on January 10, per unconfirmed reports. 
• In Coca, Orellana province, a night club was burnt down on January 10, killing one person and injuring at least five others. However, authorities are yet to ascertain if the incident was an armed attack or an accident.  
• As of 13:00 (local time) on January 10, the agency in charge of the prisons, has reported that 125 employees of the Penitentiary Security and Surveillance Corps and 14 members of the administrative staff continue to be held hostage across the Azuay, Canar, Napo, Tungurahua and Cotopaxi prisons of Ecuador.  

Security Measures 

• The head of the Joint Command of the Ecuadorian military forces, Jaime Vela announced that as of January 10, the armed forces have killed five terrorists and detained 329 gang members. Security personnel managed to seize 61 weapons of different calibers, 418 ammunition, and 24 explosives. 28 fugitives were recaptured, and 41 hostages were rescued. Most of the detainees belong to the Los Tiguerones, Los Lobos, and Los Choneros gangs. 
• In addition, the Army commander confirmed that joint operations of the military and the police are concentrated in six of the 24 provinces of Ecuador as of January 10 including in Los Rios, Santo Domingo de los Tsachilas, Guayas, Manabi, Esmeraldas, and El Oro. 
• In addition to the federal government’s mandated deployments, municipal law enforcement agencies have also reinforced security. Additional details on the same are as follows: 

• • In Quito, greater protection is provided to strategic services such as water purification plants and chemical transfers and around the State Attorney General’s Office. In addition, traffic controls will be maintained by 670 traffic agents on each shift. 
  • In Cuenca, the municipal police officers are carrying out preventive patrols at the Mariscal Lamar International Airport (CUE), the land terminal, and in the 12 de Abril market sector. 
  • In Loja, authorities have reinforced security near drinking water treatment plants and reserves, to avoid contamination. Technicians at the Pucara, Carigan, and Curitroje plants were ordered to carry out periodic water quality tests. 
  • In Quevedo, authorities ordered merchants to not open their businesses until further notice. In addition, the Cenepa Military Group has been mandated to protect water sources, power stations, hospitals, and supermarkets.  
  • In Manabi, the Armed Forces deployed 400 uniformed personnel, with patrols recorded across public and social security hospitals in Portoviejo. 
  • In Carchi, seven combat teams of 20 soldiers were deployed to patrol the urban areas of the six cantons of the province. The uniformed officers are also patrolling the informal border crossings with Colombia.  
  • In Guayaquil, over 60 uniformed personnel military and traffic agents were deployed to the Narcisa de Jesus highway in the north of Guayaquil, for control and surveillance operations. Weapons of private guards circulating in the city were also inspected. While the presence of soldiers was recorded across the city’s supermarkets.  
  • Most other municipalities recommended similar security measures and ordered teleworking until further notice.  

Political Updates  

• On January 10, the plenary session of Parliament unanimously approved a resolution supporting Executive Decree 111, signed by President Noboa on January 9, declaring an “internal armed conflict” in Ecuador and designating 22 organized crime groups as terrorist organizations, with the intervention of the Armed Forces ordered to neutralize them. 
• Simultaneously, the National Assembly expedited the second debate on the package of reforms to the Comprehensive Organic Penal Code (COIP), which is related to seven of the eleven questions of the popular consultation posed by the President Noboa on security matters.  

Travel & Service Disruptions 

• According to the Ministry of Transportation and Public Works, state ports, concessionaires, private ports, and oil terminals are operational, with security reinforced across these facilities nationwide. 
• The Ministry of Public Health has guaranteed the provision of emergency services in all health facilities in the country. However, outpatient consultation services, appointments, and planned non-urgent surgeries are suspended until further notice.  
• The US Embassy has extended the suspension of all consular services including visa appointments in Ecuador until January 12. 
• Several US airlines have cancelled flights destined for Ecuador as of January 10.  
• In addition, the Mariscal Sucre Quito International Airport (UIO) in Quito has introduced a range of other security measures for passengers that can be found here. 

Regional Response 

• Brazil offered to place the Policia Federal (PF) at the disposal of the Ecuadorian government. 
• Colombia reinforced security along its border with Ecuador, with Colombian troops present along the Rumichaca International Bridge, in addition to Chiles, Cuaspud, Carlosama, and the town of La Victoria in Ipiales.  
• President Noboa also ratified the repatriation of over 3,000 foreign prisoners to Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela. While the Colombian government was willing to co-operate, Colombian President Gustavo Petro opposed large-scale deportations of 1,489 prisoners.  
• In Peru, the Defense Ministry, requested an audit of all war material within the armed components amid suspicions that Ecuadorian criminal gangs would have weapons belonging to the Peruvian military forces in their possession. This comes after authorities found a grenade with the insignia of the Peruvian Armed Forces in television station hostage situation in Guayaquil on January 9. Moreover, authorities denied the possibility of the escaped fugitive ‘Fito’ being in Peru and also ruled out closing the country’s border with Ecuador. 

Tactical Implications

1. The incidence of widespread violence appears to have relatively subsided as compared to January 8-9. This is likely due to the reinforced security at both the federal and municipal levels. Nonetheless, the incidents recorded on January 10 continue to highlight the sustained threat of retaliatory armed attacks in the near term. Explosive attacks are likely to remain the primary modus operandi, with a high incidence of such attacks recorded across Quito, Esmeraldas City, and Guayaquil. Public infrastructure such as bridges, highways, parked vehicles, police patrol units, police stations, judicial offices, prison complexes, and public and security personnel are likely to remain the targets of low-to-medium intensity explosive attacks. While a majority of these explosions usually only result in structural damage, there remains a potential for spillover violence on innocent bystanders. This is due to attacks increasingly shifting from being mostly intimidatory in nature, to indiscriminate. Besides, gang members are also likely to carry out kidnappings and hostage situations targeting both security personnel and civilians alike, in a bid to gain leverage in the ongoing crackdown. However, security operations have been effective in releasing such hostage victims, thus far. 
2. Given the unpredictable nature of the attacks, limited circulation of traffic can be expected in the coming days, especially amid the ongoing curfew and ad-hoc road cordons across major urban centers. While no significant disruptions or security incidents have been recorded across all major airports and ports, bolstered security reinforcements as well as additional identity checks will remain in place, especially at airport terminals and along major national highways, potentially delaying scheduled land and air travel.  
3. Separately, while no businesses have suspended their operations permanently, ad-hoc closures and temporary suspension of services and business operations are likely to be recorded. While no restrictions to movement have been mandated during the day, residents of cities such as Quito and Guayaquil are expected to continue sheltering in place at all time. This is because of the uncertainty regarding the security situation and the persisting fear of additional attacks or hostage-taking situations. In this context, most commercial centers, including shopping malls and business parks, are likely to bolster security reinforcements.  

Border Security 

1. The bilateral co-operation received in the form reinforced border security operations with Peru and Colombia, will likely prevent a spillover of the violence to the neighboring countries in the near term. However, discord stemming from diverging views over the reception of repatriated prisoners, especially from the Colombia government, will likely delay Ecuador’s response in managing its overcrowded prisons efficiently. However, the repercussions of a successful repatriation will likely vary in Colombia and Peru. With Colombia having significantly departed from a hardline approach in combatting organized criminal activity, the outcome of the presence of these gang members in their country remains uncertain as of writing. Conversely, with Peru already experiencing an increasing infiltration of Venezuelan gangs such as Tren de Aragua especially in Lima, the repatriation could possibly exacerbate the public security crisis. 
2. Meanwhile, the suspicions over Ecuadorian gangs possessing Peruvian military weapons highlight a notable shortcoming in the country’s border security measures, with porous northern and southern borders with Colombia and Peru, respectively, facilitating the flow of contrabands including cocaine, explosives, and weapons. This is evidenced by the fact that most of the explosives used in explosive attacks across Ecuador, are either 100-200 grams pentolite blocks or emulsion cartridges and gel dynamite that are typically used in mining for blasting in quarries and manufactured in Bolivia or Peru, thus suggesting that they are smuggled across the southern borders. That most of these explosive materials enter the country and are marketed in the southern border towns of Ponce Enriquez, Zaruma, Caluma, and Molleturo located across El Oro and Azuay provinces, as well as the southeastern border provinces of Morona Santiago and Zamora Chinchipe, are further indicative of the lax border security enforcements. Besides, that Ecuadorian authorities themselves notified their counterparts of the presence of blocks of dynamite, explosives, and ammunition with Peruvian origins near the southern border areas in August 2023, further lends credence to this. 
3. Although neither Ecuador, Colombia or Peru have closed their borders, a reinforced border security is likely to remain in place in the coming days, thereby disrupting cross-border trade and travel in the medium term.  

Political Support 

1. The expedited passing of two resolutions further reiterates majority congressional support for Noboa and his security measures. This also speaks to the political consensus, beyond party lines, with President Rafael Correa and Indigenous leader Leonidas Iza also endorsing Noboa’s security measures. These factors combined raise the chances for Noboa’s security referendum to receive widespread approval in the coming weeks. 
2. While the recently introduced quasi-emergency measures are being widely applauded and could potentially contain the escalating violence, a resurgence of similar gang violence, prison riots, and widespread and indiscriminate explosion attacks cannot be ruled out beyond the medium term. This is particularly considering the lack of institutional apparatuses in place, including maximum security prisons and systemic corruption in prison management. An expedited approval of the security plebiscite, the sustained implementation of stop-gap measures, as well as long-term institutional changes such as additional maximum-security prisons become even more imperative to stabilize the security landscape in 2024.  

1. Those intending to travel to Ecuador in the coming days are advised to defer all non-essential travel due to the ongoing escalation in gang violence and the consequent implementation of the SoE. 
2. Those operating or residing in Ecuador are advised to avoid all travel to high crime areas in Esmeraldas, Guayaquil, Manta, Quito, and along the northern and southern border areas with Colombia and Peru.  
3. Those with continuing essential operations in areas prone to gang activity are advised to maintain an adequate private security contingent in order to secure any facilities or transport plans. Minimize employee exposure to areas with a known gang presence.  
4. Businesses are advised to shift to remote/teleworking until the security situation improves.
5. In the event that a facility or operation or an employee is targeted in extortion, gang attack, or kidnapping it is advised to evacuate nonessential personnel immediately from the site, while avoiding any interaction with the criminal groups where possible and contacting local and home-nation authorities.
6. Remain cognizant of local media updates regarding explosive attacks and prison riots. Avoid all travel to the vicinity of both incidents.   
7. In the event of the discovery of a suspicious object, it advised to evacuate the place and immediately call 911.   
8. Alert authorities upon witnessing suspicious behavior, items, or vehicles, particularly near such sites.     
9. Remain cognizant of local media updates regarding areas with a significant presence of criminal groups, given the dynamic nature of the violence.   
10. Remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding ad-hoc travel disruptions, especially in the country’s border with Peru and Colombia.  
11. Travelers are advised to carry adequate identification proof due to increased surveillance and control operations across all transportation hubs.  
12. MAX Security has excellent on-ground capabilities in Ecuador. While traveling in areas and neighborhoods with high crime rates, it is recommended to use a security-oriented driver and executive protection agent with local language capabilities and knowledge. To organize secure transportation, please contact MAX Security: [email protected] or +44 203 5400434.