21
Feb 2024
9:36 UTC
Europe Tactical (UPDATE): Farmers to stage protests in multiple countries regionwide on February 21-23; maintain heightened vigilance
Current Situation
- Farmers’ groups will stage protests and associated roadblocks regionwide on February 21-23. Protest issues include calls to decrease taxes on the agricultural sector, opposition to the EU’s green policies, and opposition to Ukrainian agricultural imports, among other issues.
- In France, farmers are blocking the A62 motorway which connects Bordeaux to Toulouse as of morning hours (local time) on February 21.
- In France, farmers are blocking the A62 motorway which connects Bordeaux to Toulouse as of morning hours (local time) on February 21.
- Additionally, farmers have called for a protest in Paris on February 23, a day before the Salon International de l’Agriculture (SIA) or the Paris International Agricultural Show, which will be held from February 24 – March 3. The protest will begin from the Sevres–Lecourbe metro station at 16:00 and arrive at the Paris Expo Porte de Versailles by 17:00, with farmers warning they will block roads into the city prior to the protest.
- Additionally, farmers have called for a protest in Paris on February 23, a day before the Salon International de l’Agriculture (SIA) or the Paris International Agricultural Show, which will be held from February 24 – March 3. The protest will begin from the Sevres–Lecourbe metro station at 16:00 and arrive at the Paris Expo Porte de Versailles by 17:00, with farmers warning they will block roads into the city prior to the protest.
- In Greece, approximately 6,500 farmers who recently staged a protest at Syntagma Square, Athens, will start to leave the city in their 160 tractors at approximately 11:00 on February 21. Many who arrived in Athens by bus, have already left. Amid ongoing negotiations with the government, farmers groups are expected to announce further mobilization plans on February 22.
- In Greece, approximately 6,500 farmers who recently staged a protest at Syntagma Square, Athens, will start to leave the city in their 160 tractors at approximately 11:00 on February 21. Many who arrived in Athens by bus, have already left. Amid ongoing negotiations with the government, farmers groups are expected to announce further mobilization plans on February 22.
- In Moldova, negotiations between farmers and the government were unsuccessful on February 20. With that, farmers have announced plans to resume nationwide mobilizations on February 22. Further details regarding the same remain unannounced.
- In Moldova, negotiations between farmers and the government were unsuccessful on February 20. With that, farmers have announced plans to resume nationwide mobilizations on February 22. Further details regarding the same remain unannounced.
- In Poland, farmers continue to hold protests nationwide, including in Wroclaw and on highways in the vicinity of Warsaw as of February 21. Details on the locations can be found here (in Polish).
- In Poland, farmers continue to hold protests nationwide, including in Wroclaw and on highways in the vicinity of Warsaw as of February 21. Details on the locations can be found here (in Polish).
- Farmers in Poland and Germany will stage blockades on border crossings in Kolbaskowo, Krajnik, and Rosowek from 12:00-17:00 on February 21.
- Farmers in Poland and Germany will stage blockades on border crossings in Kolbaskowo, Krajnik, and Rosowek from 12:00-17:00 on February 21.
Assessments & Forecast
- Based on media reports, coupled with precedent, the slated protests are expected to garner varying turnouts, ranging from the low hundreds to high thousands. Based on media reports, the France protest will gather a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid thousands.
- With farmers’ groups continuing to threaten further action if their demands are not met, further sporadic and planned protests are likely to be organized regionwide, including in Spain, Greece, and Italy.
- Protesters are expected to continue utilizing disruptive tactics, such as slow-drive rallies and road blockades. Considering this, coupled with the potential involvement of far-right and radical climate elements, the protests carry the risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and security personnel. Farmers are also likely to dump hay, food items, and other materials near protest locations, especially near government buildings.
- The potential for isolated scuffles between farmers and disgruntled commuters also cannot be ruled out. Moreover, there is a potential for pro-Ukrainian and pro-EU groups to stage counterprotests, which could also escalate into clashes with the protesting farmers.
- Significant disruptions to travel and business operations are anticipated in the vicinity of such demonstrations. Additionally, protesters are highly likely to block key government buildings and central locations. With that, authorities are liable to deploy security cordons and diversions to manage traffic.
- Moreover, farmers are likely to block border crossings, customs facilities, major motorways, and ports, prompting temporary disruptions to supply chain operations. Indeed, the protests in Moldova are likely to be staged at border crossings with Romania such as Cahul, Costesti, and Leuseni.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in the aforementioned countries in Europe on February 21-23 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of farmers’ protests due to the potential for unrest.
- Allot for severe disruptions to travel, including on roads, railways, and ferries.
- Remain cognizant of traffic measures and road diversions announced by authorities.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation
- Farmers’ groups will stage protests and associated roadblocks regionwide on February 21-23. Protest issues include calls to decrease taxes on the agricultural sector, opposition to the EU’s green policies, and opposition to Ukrainian agricultural imports, among other issues.
- In France, farmers are blocking the A62 motorway which connects Bordeaux to Toulouse as of morning hours (local time) on February 21.
- In France, farmers are blocking the A62 motorway which connects Bordeaux to Toulouse as of morning hours (local time) on February 21.
- Additionally, farmers have called for a protest in Paris on February 23, a day before the Salon International de l’Agriculture (SIA) or the Paris International Agricultural Show, which will be held from February 24 – March 3. The protest will begin from the Sevres–Lecourbe metro station at 16:00 and arrive at the Paris Expo Porte de Versailles by 17:00, with farmers warning they will block roads into the city prior to the protest.
- Additionally, farmers have called for a protest in Paris on February 23, a day before the Salon International de l’Agriculture (SIA) or the Paris International Agricultural Show, which will be held from February 24 – March 3. The protest will begin from the Sevres–Lecourbe metro station at 16:00 and arrive at the Paris Expo Porte de Versailles by 17:00, with farmers warning they will block roads into the city prior to the protest.
- In Greece, approximately 6,500 farmers who recently staged a protest at Syntagma Square, Athens, will start to leave the city in their 160 tractors at approximately 11:00 on February 21. Many who arrived in Athens by bus, have already left. Amid ongoing negotiations with the government, farmers groups are expected to announce further mobilization plans on February 22.
- In Greece, approximately 6,500 farmers who recently staged a protest at Syntagma Square, Athens, will start to leave the city in their 160 tractors at approximately 11:00 on February 21. Many who arrived in Athens by bus, have already left. Amid ongoing negotiations with the government, farmers groups are expected to announce further mobilization plans on February 22.
- In Moldova, negotiations between farmers and the government were unsuccessful on February 20. With that, farmers have announced plans to resume nationwide mobilizations on February 22. Further details regarding the same remain unannounced.
- In Moldova, negotiations between farmers and the government were unsuccessful on February 20. With that, farmers have announced plans to resume nationwide mobilizations on February 22. Further details regarding the same remain unannounced.
- In Poland, farmers continue to hold protests nationwide, including in Wroclaw and on highways in the vicinity of Warsaw as of February 21. Details on the locations can be found here (in Polish).
- In Poland, farmers continue to hold protests nationwide, including in Wroclaw and on highways in the vicinity of Warsaw as of February 21. Details on the locations can be found here (in Polish).
- Farmers in Poland and Germany will stage blockades on border crossings in Kolbaskowo, Krajnik, and Rosowek from 12:00-17:00 on February 21.
- Farmers in Poland and Germany will stage blockades on border crossings in Kolbaskowo, Krajnik, and Rosowek from 12:00-17:00 on February 21.
Assessments & Forecast
- Based on media reports, coupled with precedent, the slated protests are expected to garner varying turnouts, ranging from the low hundreds to high thousands. Based on media reports, the France protest will gather a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid thousands.
- With farmers’ groups continuing to threaten further action if their demands are not met, further sporadic and planned protests are likely to be organized regionwide, including in Spain, Greece, and Italy.
- Protesters are expected to continue utilizing disruptive tactics, such as slow-drive rallies and road blockades. Considering this, coupled with the potential involvement of far-right and radical climate elements, the protests carry the risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and security personnel. Farmers are also likely to dump hay, food items, and other materials near protest locations, especially near government buildings.
- The potential for isolated scuffles between farmers and disgruntled commuters also cannot be ruled out. Moreover, there is a potential for pro-Ukrainian and pro-EU groups to stage counterprotests, which could also escalate into clashes with the protesting farmers.
- Significant disruptions to travel and business operations are anticipated in the vicinity of such demonstrations. Additionally, protesters are highly likely to block key government buildings and central locations. With that, authorities are liable to deploy security cordons and diversions to manage traffic.
- Moreover, farmers are likely to block border crossings, customs facilities, major motorways, and ports, prompting temporary disruptions to supply chain operations. Indeed, the protests in Moldova are likely to be staged at border crossings with Romania such as Cahul, Costesti, and Leuseni.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in the aforementioned countries in Europe on February 21-23 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of farmers’ protests due to the potential for unrest.
- Allot for severe disruptions to travel, including on roads, railways, and ferries.
- Remain cognizant of traffic measures and road diversions announced by authorities.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
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