Protest

19
Jun 2024
12:15 UTC

Europe Tactical (UPDATE): Protests related to Israel-Hamas conflict slated in multiple cities on June 19-20; maintain heightened vigilance

Current Situation

  • Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict will be held in several cities across Europe on June 19-20. Details are as follows:
  • In Paris, France, pro-Israel activists will stage a protest at Parvis de l’Hotel de Ville at 18:30 (local time) on June 19. The protest is organized to denounce the gang rape of a Jewish 12-year-old girl in Courbevoie on June 15, which is alleged to be anti-Semitic in nature. On June 18, three teenagers were charged with rape and arrested.   
  • In Berlin, Germany, pro-Palestinian activists will stage a protest march from Keplerstrasse 2 at 18:00 to Moabit Prison on June 20. The route will pass through Kaiserin-Augusta Allee, Wiebestrasse, Huttenstrasse, Turmstrasse, and Rathenowerstrasse.  
  • In Madrid, Spain, pro-Palestinian activists will stage a protest at Puerta del Retiro, at Plaza de la Independencia at 19:00 on June 20
  • In Belgium, Brussels city authorities banned an upcoming UEFA Israel-Belgium football match at the King Baudouin Stadium, citing safety concerns for residents, per June 19 reports. Concerns over pro-Palestinian protests drove the decision.
  • On June 19, 27 pro-Palestinian protesters were arrested for blocking the entrance to Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark after refusing to comply with police orders.
  • On June 19, the main entrance to the University of Cologne in Cologne, Germany was vandalized with red handprints – a symbol associated with the pro-Palestinian movement.

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on precedent and social media estimates, the protests are expected to garner turnouts ranging from the low-hundreds to high-thousands, with the demonstration in Paris expected to be the largest.   
  2. In addition to the aforementioned protests, the potential of spontaneous pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel protests remains elevated regionwide. Such protests are likely to occur near central government buildings, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, Jewish and Muslim establishments, and prominent public places in major urban centers across Europe. Moreover, pro-Palestinian activists are liable to continue attempting to occupy buildings at prominent university campuses in multiple cities across Europe.  
  3. Given heightened sentiments surrounding the protest issue, any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry an elevated potential for unrest. This is particularly true if the protests attract counterprotests by pro-Israel, pro-Palestinian, and/or far-right groups. Incidents of unrest are likely to manifest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police, as well as with counter-protesters, should such demonstrations manifest. Moreover, pro-Palestinian activists may continue engaging in vandalism targeting institutions that work with Israeli universities, as evidenced by the vandalism in Cologne. Similarly, Israeli entities and entities considered as pro-Israel are likely to be targeted.  
  4. Authorities are expected to deploy a bolstered security presence near protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the event of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including deploying tear gas and conducting mass arrests.   
  5. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations. Further, given that protesters have used road blockades as a protest tactic in the past, the risk of the same remains. If this takes place, this will further increase the scale of disruptions.  
  6. Separately, the incident in France reiterates the growing threat of violent anti-Semitic crimes in the country, with France reporting 1,676 anti-Semitic incidents in 2023, up from 436 the year prior. FORECAST: Considering the media traction of the rape, similar protests denouncing anti-Semitism are likely to take place in other cities in France in the coming days.  
  7. Following the cancellation of the football match in Brussels, coupled with a similar decision in Lodz, Poland, it is likely future games involving Israeli football clubs will be canceled. This underscores security concerns around Israel-related events, amid concerns over large-scale pro-Palestinian protests. This is especially so, given the protests in Malmo, Sweden, against Israel’s participation in the Eurovision Song Contest in May.  

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in the aforementioned cities in Europe on June 19-20 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest.   
  2. Allot for associated travel disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation

  • Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict will be held in several cities across Europe on June 19-20. Details are as follows:
  • In Paris, France, pro-Israel activists will stage a protest at Parvis de l’Hotel de Ville at 18:30 (local time) on June 19. The protest is organized to denounce the gang rape of a Jewish 12-year-old girl in Courbevoie on June 15, which is alleged to be anti-Semitic in nature. On June 18, three teenagers were charged with rape and arrested.   
  • In Berlin, Germany, pro-Palestinian activists will stage a protest march from Keplerstrasse 2 at 18:00 to Moabit Prison on June 20. The route will pass through Kaiserin-Augusta Allee, Wiebestrasse, Huttenstrasse, Turmstrasse, and Rathenowerstrasse.  
  • In Madrid, Spain, pro-Palestinian activists will stage a protest at Puerta del Retiro, at Plaza de la Independencia at 19:00 on June 20
  • In Belgium, Brussels city authorities banned an upcoming UEFA Israel-Belgium football match at the King Baudouin Stadium, citing safety concerns for residents, per June 19 reports. Concerns over pro-Palestinian protests drove the decision.
  • On June 19, 27 pro-Palestinian protesters were arrested for blocking the entrance to Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark after refusing to comply with police orders.
  • On June 19, the main entrance to the University of Cologne in Cologne, Germany was vandalized with red handprints – a symbol associated with the pro-Palestinian movement.

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on precedent and social media estimates, the protests are expected to garner turnouts ranging from the low-hundreds to high-thousands, with the demonstration in Paris expected to be the largest.   
  2. In addition to the aforementioned protests, the potential of spontaneous pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel protests remains elevated regionwide. Such protests are likely to occur near central government buildings, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, Jewish and Muslim establishments, and prominent public places in major urban centers across Europe. Moreover, pro-Palestinian activists are liable to continue attempting to occupy buildings at prominent university campuses in multiple cities across Europe.  
  3. Given heightened sentiments surrounding the protest issue, any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry an elevated potential for unrest. This is particularly true if the protests attract counterprotests by pro-Israel, pro-Palestinian, and/or far-right groups. Incidents of unrest are likely to manifest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police, as well as with counter-protesters, should such demonstrations manifest. Moreover, pro-Palestinian activists may continue engaging in vandalism targeting institutions that work with Israeli universities, as evidenced by the vandalism in Cologne. Similarly, Israeli entities and entities considered as pro-Israel are likely to be targeted.  
  4. Authorities are expected to deploy a bolstered security presence near protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the event of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including deploying tear gas and conducting mass arrests.   
  5. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations. Further, given that protesters have used road blockades as a protest tactic in the past, the risk of the same remains. If this takes place, this will further increase the scale of disruptions.  
  6. Separately, the incident in France reiterates the growing threat of violent anti-Semitic crimes in the country, with France reporting 1,676 anti-Semitic incidents in 2023, up from 436 the year prior. FORECAST: Considering the media traction of the rape, similar protests denouncing anti-Semitism are likely to take place in other cities in France in the coming days.  
  7. Following the cancellation of the football match in Brussels, coupled with a similar decision in Lodz, Poland, it is likely future games involving Israeli football clubs will be canceled. This underscores security concerns around Israel-related events, amid concerns over large-scale pro-Palestinian protests. This is especially so, given the protests in Malmo, Sweden, against Israel’s participation in the Eurovision Song Contest in May.  

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in the aforementioned cities in Europe on June 19-20 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest.   
  2. Allot for associated travel disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible