Protest

31
Oct 2024
17:18 UTC

Europe Tactical (UPDATE): Protests related to Israel-Hamas conflict to be held in several cities regionwide on November 2; maintain heightened vigilance

Current Situation

  • Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict are scheduled in several cities across Europe on November 2. Details regarding the same are as follows: 
  • In Vienna, Austria, a pro-Palestinian protest will take place at Columbus Platz at 14:00 (local time).

Source: X/Twitter

  • In Cologne, Germany, a pro-Palestinian protest will take place at Rudolfplatz at 14:00.

Source: Instagram

  • In London, UK, a pro-Palestinian protest march will take place from Whitehall to the US Embassy located at the Nine Elms area from 12:00. 

Source: X/Twitter

  • Separately, according to October 31 reports, Micheal Martin, the Irish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, announced that the technical blockage preventing progress on the Occupied Territories Bill—intended to implement a complete ban on the import of goods and services produced in Jewish settlements in the West Bank considered illegal by Ireland—will soon be removed. He has requested the preparation of a “money message,” an essential requirement for any non-governmental legislation, to be signed as early as November 1.

Source: RTE

  • On October 30, in Austria, the anti-Semitism reporting office of the Jewish Community of Vienna, the Israelitische Kultusgemeinde (IKG), reported a significant rise in anti-Semitic incidents. In the first half of 2024, there were 808 reported cases, a 160 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. 

Source: Kurier

  • On October 30, unknown assailants vandalized a cafe located near the Neukolln S-Bahn station in Berlin, Germany during the overnight hours. Pro-Palestinian graffiti was also found. This cafe has been targeted in several attacks in recent months due to its public stance against anti-Semitism and its support for victims of anti-Semitic violence.

Source: Rbb24

  • On October 30, an unknown perpetrator threw ammonium at a police officer during a pro-Palestinian rally in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 

Source: Nltimes

  • On October 31, a French court overturned a government ban that had prohibited Israeli companies from participating in the upcoming Euronaval arms exhibition, scheduled to take place near Paris from November 4 to 7. 

Source: Reuters

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on precedent and social media estimates, the slated protests are likely to witness turnouts ranging from the high dozens to mid thousands each, with the protest in London expected to witness the largest turnout. 
  2. In addition to the aforementioned protests, the risk of spontaneous pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel demonstrations remains heightened regionwide during the coming weekend. Such protests are likely to occur near central government buildings, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, Jewish and Muslim establishments, and prominent public places in major urban centers across Europe.  
  3. Based on precedent, any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry a heightened potential for unrest, particularly if they attract counter-protests by pro-Israel groups and/or pro-Palestinian groups. Incidents of unrest are likely to manifest as clashes between protesters and the police, as well as with potential counter-protesters, as evidenced by the October 30 attack against a police officer during a pro-Palestinian protest in Amsterdam. 
  4. Meanwhile, the decision by the French court to allow Israeli firms to participate in the Euronaval exhibition is likely to prompt protests from pro-Palestinian groups in the coming days, including potential demonstrations near the Euronaval arms exhibition from November 4 to 7. 
  5. A bolstered security presence near protest locations is expected to be deployed near all protests monitor proceedings. In the event of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including conducting mass arrests. 
  6. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations. 
  7. Moreover, as evidenced by the report from the IKG in Vienna, the threat of anti-Semitism is likely to remain elevated across Europe in the coming months. This is likely to manifest as verbal abuse, vandalism and property damage, and physical assault. Moreover, the risk of harassment of Jews and Israelis is especially elevated at pro-Palestinian protests.  

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Europe on November 2 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest. 
  2. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest location. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation

  • Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict are scheduled in several cities across Europe on November 2. Details regarding the same are as follows: 
  • In Vienna, Austria, a pro-Palestinian protest will take place at Columbus Platz at 14:00 (local time).

Source: X/Twitter

  • In Cologne, Germany, a pro-Palestinian protest will take place at Rudolfplatz at 14:00.

Source: Instagram

  • In London, UK, a pro-Palestinian protest march will take place from Whitehall to the US Embassy located at the Nine Elms area from 12:00. 

Source: X/Twitter

  • Separately, according to October 31 reports, Micheal Martin, the Irish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, announced that the technical blockage preventing progress on the Occupied Territories Bill—intended to implement a complete ban on the import of goods and services produced in Jewish settlements in the West Bank considered illegal by Ireland—will soon be removed. He has requested the preparation of a “money message,” an essential requirement for any non-governmental legislation, to be signed as early as November 1.

Source: RTE

  • On October 30, in Austria, the anti-Semitism reporting office of the Jewish Community of Vienna, the Israelitische Kultusgemeinde (IKG), reported a significant rise in anti-Semitic incidents. In the first half of 2024, there were 808 reported cases, a 160 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. 

Source: Kurier

  • On October 30, unknown assailants vandalized a cafe located near the Neukolln S-Bahn station in Berlin, Germany during the overnight hours. Pro-Palestinian graffiti was also found. This cafe has been targeted in several attacks in recent months due to its public stance against anti-Semitism and its support for victims of anti-Semitic violence.

Source: Rbb24

  • On October 30, an unknown perpetrator threw ammonium at a police officer during a pro-Palestinian rally in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 

Source: Nltimes

  • On October 31, a French court overturned a government ban that had prohibited Israeli companies from participating in the upcoming Euronaval arms exhibition, scheduled to take place near Paris from November 4 to 7. 

Source: Reuters

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on precedent and social media estimates, the slated protests are likely to witness turnouts ranging from the high dozens to mid thousands each, with the protest in London expected to witness the largest turnout. 
  2. In addition to the aforementioned protests, the risk of spontaneous pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel demonstrations remains heightened regionwide during the coming weekend. Such protests are likely to occur near central government buildings, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, Jewish and Muslim establishments, and prominent public places in major urban centers across Europe.  
  3. Based on precedent, any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry a heightened potential for unrest, particularly if they attract counter-protests by pro-Israel groups and/or pro-Palestinian groups. Incidents of unrest are likely to manifest as clashes between protesters and the police, as well as with potential counter-protesters, as evidenced by the October 30 attack against a police officer during a pro-Palestinian protest in Amsterdam. 
  4. Meanwhile, the decision by the French court to allow Israeli firms to participate in the Euronaval exhibition is likely to prompt protests from pro-Palestinian groups in the coming days, including potential demonstrations near the Euronaval arms exhibition from November 4 to 7. 
  5. A bolstered security presence near protest locations is expected to be deployed near all protests monitor proceedings. In the event of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including conducting mass arrests. 
  6. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations. 
  7. Moreover, as evidenced by the report from the IKG in Vienna, the threat of anti-Semitism is likely to remain elevated across Europe in the coming months. This is likely to manifest as verbal abuse, vandalism and property damage, and physical assault. Moreover, the risk of harassment of Jews and Israelis is especially elevated at pro-Palestinian protests.  

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Europe on November 2 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest. 
  2. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest location. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible