Protest

20
Dec 2024
5:53 UTC

Georgia Tactical: Multiple anti-government protest rallies slated in Tbilisi on December 20; avoid vicinity of rallies

Current Situation:

  • Multiple anti-government protest rallies are slated in Tbilisi from the afternoon hours (local time) onwards on December 20.  
  • Student activists will hold a protest outside TSU 10th Building (Maglivi) from 12:00 on December 20. Another protest march will take place from Marjanishvili Square to the Parliament at the same time.  
  • Additionally, an IT/TECH community bike rally is slated from Marjanishvili Square to the Parliament at 13:00. The route remains unspecified at the time of writing.  
  • Another rally will be held from the Marjanishvili Square to the Parliament via Chavchavadze Avenue 74 at 13:00. 
  • A lawyers’ protest march is slated from the High Council of Justice at 17:00. 
  • Student groups, including International Relations Students for a European Future, will hold a rally from Marjanishvili Metro to the Parliament at 18:00 on the day. Groups of activists are also slated to hold protest marches from First Republic Square and Europe Square at 18:00. 
  • Two more rallies will be held from the Rustaveli Metro to Parliament at 17:00. 
  • Activists from the Autism Coalition will march from Europe Square to Parliament at 20:00. 
  • The rallies will be held to denounce the ruling Georgian Dream (GD)-led administration, with disaffection heightened since the October 26 parliamentary elections and the GD’s announcement to halt talks with the EU until 2028. 

Source: Mtavari 

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The rallies are likely to witness attendance between the high hundreds to low thousands, based on precedent, structured mobilization capabilities of different groups, and greater momentum for the gatherings over the weekend as seen in earlier protests. The higher turnout can also be linked to the widespread anti-GD sentiment, particularly given the recent increasing Western sanctions against Georgia and the response of the Georgian Prime Minister calling it an “anti-Georgian step.” Due to these developments, the emergence of additional impromptu protests over the coming hours remains plausible. The authorities are expected to heighten security along rally routes, particularly outside Parliament, Marjanishvili Square, Europe Square, and the First Republic Square, given the sensitivity of the protest locations. Riot police deployments and barricade setups are anticipated to manage the situation. 
  2. Given the authorities’ low tolerance for anti-government protests, clashes between protesters and the police are likely. Amid the heightened security measures, tensions are likely to escalate if protesters are perceived to breach security protocols or engage in actions such as launching fireworks. Recent reports of unidentified masked individuals violently dispersing anti-government rallies further heighten the likelihood of clashes. The authorities are liable to use tear gas and detain the protesters to quell any unrest, based on precedent. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations on December 20 due to the high turnout and the risk of clashes.  

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Tbilisi on December 20 are advised to avoid the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the slated rallies and associated high risk of unrest while allotting for travel disruptions. 

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Tbilisi, Georgia
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation:

  • Multiple anti-government protest rallies are slated in Tbilisi from the afternoon hours (local time) onwards on December 20.  
  • Student activists will hold a protest outside TSU 10th Building (Maglivi) from 12:00 on December 20. Another protest march will take place from Marjanishvili Square to the Parliament at the same time.  
  • Additionally, an IT/TECH community bike rally is slated from Marjanishvili Square to the Parliament at 13:00. The route remains unspecified at the time of writing.  
  • Another rally will be held from the Marjanishvili Square to the Parliament via Chavchavadze Avenue 74 at 13:00. 
  • A lawyers’ protest march is slated from the High Council of Justice at 17:00. 
  • Student groups, including International Relations Students for a European Future, will hold a rally from Marjanishvili Metro to the Parliament at 18:00 on the day. Groups of activists are also slated to hold protest marches from First Republic Square and Europe Square at 18:00. 
  • Two more rallies will be held from the Rustaveli Metro to Parliament at 17:00. 
  • Activists from the Autism Coalition will march from Europe Square to Parliament at 20:00. 
  • The rallies will be held to denounce the ruling Georgian Dream (GD)-led administration, with disaffection heightened since the October 26 parliamentary elections and the GD’s announcement to halt talks with the EU until 2028. 

Source: Mtavari 

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The rallies are likely to witness attendance between the high hundreds to low thousands, based on precedent, structured mobilization capabilities of different groups, and greater momentum for the gatherings over the weekend as seen in earlier protests. The higher turnout can also be linked to the widespread anti-GD sentiment, particularly given the recent increasing Western sanctions against Georgia and the response of the Georgian Prime Minister calling it an “anti-Georgian step.” Due to these developments, the emergence of additional impromptu protests over the coming hours remains plausible. The authorities are expected to heighten security along rally routes, particularly outside Parliament, Marjanishvili Square, Europe Square, and the First Republic Square, given the sensitivity of the protest locations. Riot police deployments and barricade setups are anticipated to manage the situation. 
  2. Given the authorities’ low tolerance for anti-government protests, clashes between protesters and the police are likely. Amid the heightened security measures, tensions are likely to escalate if protesters are perceived to breach security protocols or engage in actions such as launching fireworks. Recent reports of unidentified masked individuals violently dispersing anti-government rallies further heighten the likelihood of clashes. The authorities are liable to use tear gas and detain the protesters to quell any unrest, based on precedent. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations on December 20 due to the high turnout and the risk of clashes.  

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Tbilisi on December 20 are advised to avoid the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the slated rallies and associated high risk of unrest while allotting for travel disruptions. 

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Tbilisi, Georgia
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible