08
Dec 2024
13:33 UTC
Ghana Alert: Opposition NDC party candidate John Mahama claims victory in presidential elections in December 8 statement
Current Situation
- According to an official statement, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate John Mahama stated that ruling National Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, called him to concede defeat and congratulate him on his victory in the December 7 general elections.
- Reports indicate that Bawumia’s decision to concede defeat was based on internal tallies from the NPP and he reportedly acknowledged the civilians’ vote for change. He justified his decision by the intention to avoid tensions and maintain peace.
- The NDC reportedly claimed Mahama won 56 percent of the vote against Bawumia’s 41 percent. The NDC also claimed a significant victory in the parliamentary elections.
- NDC supporters reportedly started gathering in Accra, Tamale in Northern Region, and Kumasi in Ashanti Region to celebrate the results.
- The Electoral Commission (EC) has not released the official results. It earlier stated that the publication of the official results had been delayed due to supporters of both main parties infiltrating the collation centers, calling on police to clear mass gatherings outside the facilities.
Source: John Mahama’s statement
Assessments & Forecast
- This follows heightened pre-electoral tensions, demonstrated by sporadic incidents of election-related violence ahead of the polls and on voting day on December 7, with expectations of a close race between Mahama and Bawumia. The pre-election period was also marred by NDC and NPP mutual accusations of voter manipulation, with the opposition also alleging the EC was biased towards the NPP. To this end, Bawumia’s concession to Mahama likely intended to showcase the NPP’s commitment to fair and transparent elections as well as Bawumia’s intention to ensure a peaceful transition of power while minimizing the risk of the emergence of unrest.
- The outcome of the elections, with Mahama winning and the NDC securing a significant victory, underscores the depth of anti-public sentiments towards the NPP, in power since 2016. This was likely connected to persistent disgruntlement over the NPP-led government’s management of the country’s economy as Ghana faced a severe economic crisis and defaulted on its external debt in late 2022, which forced it to seek a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this context, while Ghana’s macroeconomic situation gradually improved since, this has not been translated into concrete measures to ease civilians’ socioeconomic grievances, which likely assisted Mahama in convincing the public to vote the NPP out of power. Mahama himself also faced criticism over his presidential tenure between 2012-2017, particularly concerning alleged corruption cases within his administration. However, his victory reflects sustained public support in addition to the anti-NPP votes.
- FORECAST: In the coming days, the EC will likely publish the official presidential and parliamentary election results. Considering Bawumia’s statement conceding defeat, the NPP is unlikely to launch appeals against the final results of the presidential polls although appeals against the results of the legislative polls are possible, with disappointed candidates potentially seeking legal paths to alter the results at the constituency level. Over the coming days and weeks, NDC supporters are expected to hold celebratory gatherings in Accra as well as in NDC strongholds in urban centers such as Tamale, which could result in localized disruptions. Some post-electoral tensions are likely to persist amid potential legal appeals against the legislative election results in addition to the latent potential for NPP supporters in the party’s typical strongholds, such as Kumasi, or in Accra mobilizing to express their frustration with the results. Bolstered security presence, already presented ahead of the polls, will likely be maintained in the near term.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Ghana on December 8 and over the coming days are advised to maintain heightened vigilance given the potential for celebratory gatherings by NDC supporters and protests against the election results by NPP members.
- Travel to Accra may continue while adhering to general security precautions regarding crime.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Nationwide, Ghana
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation
- According to an official statement, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate John Mahama stated that ruling National Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, called him to concede defeat and congratulate him on his victory in the December 7 general elections.
- Reports indicate that Bawumia’s decision to concede defeat was based on internal tallies from the NPP and he reportedly acknowledged the civilians’ vote for change. He justified his decision by the intention to avoid tensions and maintain peace.
- The NDC reportedly claimed Mahama won 56 percent of the vote against Bawumia’s 41 percent. The NDC also claimed a significant victory in the parliamentary elections.
- NDC supporters reportedly started gathering in Accra, Tamale in Northern Region, and Kumasi in Ashanti Region to celebrate the results.
- The Electoral Commission (EC) has not released the official results. It earlier stated that the publication of the official results had been delayed due to supporters of both main parties infiltrating the collation centers, calling on police to clear mass gatherings outside the facilities.
Source: John Mahama’s statement
Assessments & Forecast
- This follows heightened pre-electoral tensions, demonstrated by sporadic incidents of election-related violence ahead of the polls and on voting day on December 7, with expectations of a close race between Mahama and Bawumia. The pre-election period was also marred by NDC and NPP mutual accusations of voter manipulation, with the opposition also alleging the EC was biased towards the NPP. To this end, Bawumia’s concession to Mahama likely intended to showcase the NPP’s commitment to fair and transparent elections as well as Bawumia’s intention to ensure a peaceful transition of power while minimizing the risk of the emergence of unrest.
- The outcome of the elections, with Mahama winning and the NDC securing a significant victory, underscores the depth of anti-public sentiments towards the NPP, in power since 2016. This was likely connected to persistent disgruntlement over the NPP-led government’s management of the country’s economy as Ghana faced a severe economic crisis and defaulted on its external debt in late 2022, which forced it to seek a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this context, while Ghana’s macroeconomic situation gradually improved since, this has not been translated into concrete measures to ease civilians’ socioeconomic grievances, which likely assisted Mahama in convincing the public to vote the NPP out of power. Mahama himself also faced criticism over his presidential tenure between 2012-2017, particularly concerning alleged corruption cases within his administration. However, his victory reflects sustained public support in addition to the anti-NPP votes.
- FORECAST: In the coming days, the EC will likely publish the official presidential and parliamentary election results. Considering Bawumia’s statement conceding defeat, the NPP is unlikely to launch appeals against the final results of the presidential polls although appeals against the results of the legislative polls are possible, with disappointed candidates potentially seeking legal paths to alter the results at the constituency level. Over the coming days and weeks, NDC supporters are expected to hold celebratory gatherings in Accra as well as in NDC strongholds in urban centers such as Tamale, which could result in localized disruptions. Some post-electoral tensions are likely to persist amid potential legal appeals against the legislative election results in addition to the latent potential for NPP supporters in the party’s typical strongholds, such as Kumasi, or in Accra mobilizing to express their frustration with the results. Bolstered security presence, already presented ahead of the polls, will likely be maintained in the near term.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Ghana on December 8 and over the coming days are advised to maintain heightened vigilance given the potential for celebratory gatherings by NDC supporters and protests against the election results by NPP members.
- Travel to Accra may continue while adhering to general security precautions regarding crime.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Nationwide, Ghana
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Related Reports
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-
PiracyBenin Alert: Suspected pirates attack fishing vessel, abduct Chinese captain, approximately 17 km southeast of Cotonou, Benin, on December 5 -
CrimeGhana Alert: One soldier, four accomplicies remanded for suspected kidnapping attempt against Dutch national in Afienya, Greater Accra Region per October 24 reports
Related Reports
Ghana
-
PiracyBenin Alert: Suspected pirates attack fishing vessel, abduct Chinese captain, approximately 17 km southeast of Cotonou, Benin, on December 5
-
CrimeGhana Alert: One soldier, four accomplicies remanded for suspected kidnapping attempt against Dutch national in Afienya, Greater Accra Region per October 24 reports