Greece Alert: Two arrested in alleged Iranian plot against Israeli, Jewish targets in Athens on March 28; threat of attacks to remain elevated during Passover

Mar 2023

9:27 UTC

Please be advised

On March 28, Greek police stated that they arrested two suspected members of a terrorist group that was plotting mass casualty attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Greece. The suspects are two Pakistani nationals aged 27 and 29 years old that entered Greece illegally through Turkey.
The targets include an Israeli restaurant and a religious community center, which includes a synagogue and kosher restaurant, in Athens. Police said the suspects were making final preparations for the attack and had chosen targets of “high symbolism.”
Israel’s intelligence service Mossad confirmed that it had assisted in the investigation. The Mossad added that the operation in Greece was “part of a vast Iranian network operated from Iran across many countries.”
Reports indicate that a third operative based in Iran had urged the two Pakistani nationals to carry out the attack, promising them monetary compensation.
Greek police said they had confiscated digital evidence that confirmed that the attack was imminent as the group had already chosen the targets, carried out reconnaissance of the area, and received final instructions to carry out the attack.
The suspects planned to carry out the attack with a gas cylinder explosive and were plotting to kidnap some of the targets.
On March 20, Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) issued travel advisories detailing threats from terrorist elements, particularly from Iran. The NSC included Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Georgia, Greece, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates in its list of countries where Iran is likely to target Jews and Israelis.
Multiple Iranian plots were foiled in 2022, including a kidnapping plot targeting an Israeli businessman in Cyprus, an assassination attempt against an Israeli in Georgia by a Pakistani citizen, and multiple attack plots targeting Israeli tourists in Turkey.

Assessments & Forecast

The fact that the attacks in Athens were imminent, as evidenced by the extensive preparations, is highly notable. Moreover, that the attackers planned to use explosives is indicative of the scale of the thwarted attack, given the high likelihood of mass casualties. The timing of the attack further supports this, given that the community center would have held celebrations for the Jewish Passover that begins on April 5 – including a seder feast that is likely to attract a higher turnout than normal events.
In contrast, recent successful attacks in Europe have been predominantly carried out using bladed weapons and firearms and have resulted in relatively low casualties compared to the large-scale attacks in the 2010s.
While Iran is expected to deny responsibility, the fact that the suspects were allegedly in contact with an operative in Iran indicates Teheran’s involvement is highly likely. This is further supported by the foiled plots against Israeli and Jewish targets in 2022 detailed above, as well as reports indicating that Iranian attack plots have intensified in the past two years. Additional targets include government officials, Iranian dissidents, and journalists operating outside of Iran.
Moreover, that the suspects were allegedly promised monetary compensation is liable to heighten already elevated concerns over Iranian operatives using hitmen. The use of proxies not only provides Iran with plausible deniability but also gives its operatives global reach, given the potential for extensive recruitment. This is evidenced by the recruitment of Azerbaijan and Pakistan nationals, as well as reports indicating that Iran has recruited proxies at prisons in the UAE.
FORECAT: While the NSC has already issued travel advisories, including Level 3 threat levels for Egypt, Bahrain, and the UAE, the NSC may increase its threat level for Greece due to the scale of the attack plot. Given the elevated threat posed by Iran, Israel is likely to carry out similar coordinated operations with intelligence agencies throughout Europe.
FORECAST: Considering the symbolic nature of the attack targets and timing in Athens, future attack plots are likely to use similar targets. These include Israeli businesses, Jewish community centers, synagogues, and Jewish schools. While Israeli diplomatic missions are also plausible attack targets, given the level of security at these establishments, the potential for an attack to be successful is low. As such, lower-profile targets that are still linked to Israelis or Jews are more likely. Moreover, the use of kidnapping in such plots is also plausible, given that the successful kidnapping of Israeli nationals could allow for political demands as it would require state intervention.
Given the upcoming Passover festival coincides with Ramadan, there is an increased risk of attacks against Jewish and Israeli locations in the coming weeks, with other community gatherings liable to be targeted. As such, increased security is likely to be witnessed in the vicinity of synagogues and community centers.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Europe going forward are advised to maintain vigilance due to the potential threat of targeted attacks against Israel-linked and Jewish individuals and organizations during the Passover festival.
Public, private, and third sector organizations are advised to increase awareness of threats on social media using threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
For any questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected]

Low

Athens, Greece

High

Confirmed

Please be advised

On March 28, Greek police stated that they arrested two suspected members of a terrorist group that was plotting mass casualty attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Greece. The suspects are two Pakistani nationals aged 27 and 29 years old that entered Greece illegally through Turkey.
The targets include an Israeli restaurant and a religious community center, which includes a synagogue and kosher restaurant, in Athens. Police said the suspects were making final preparations for the attack and had chosen targets of “high symbolism.”
Israel’s intelligence service Mossad confirmed that it had assisted in the investigation. The Mossad added that the operation in Greece was “part of a vast Iranian network operated from Iran across many countries.”
Reports indicate that a third operative based in Iran had urged the two Pakistani nationals to carry out the attack, promising them monetary compensation.
Greek police said they had confiscated digital evidence that confirmed that the attack was imminent as the group had already chosen the targets, carried out reconnaissance of the area, and received final instructions to carry out the attack.
The suspects planned to carry out the attack with a gas cylinder explosive and were plotting to kidnap some of the targets.
On March 20, Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) issued travel advisories detailing threats from terrorist elements, particularly from Iran. The NSC included Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Georgia, Greece, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates in its list of countries where Iran is likely to target Jews and Israelis.
Multiple Iranian plots were foiled in 2022, including a kidnapping plot targeting an Israeli businessman in Cyprus, an assassination attempt against an Israeli in Georgia by a Pakistani citizen, and multiple attack plots targeting Israeli tourists in Turkey.

Assessments & Forecast

The fact that the attacks in Athens were imminent, as evidenced by the extensive preparations, is highly notable. Moreover, that the attackers planned to use explosives is indicative of the scale of the thwarted attack, given the high likelihood of mass casualties. The timing of the attack further supports this, given that the community center would have held celebrations for the Jewish Passover that begins on April 5 – including a seder feast that is likely to attract a higher turnout than normal events.
In contrast, recent successful attacks in Europe have been predominantly carried out using bladed weapons and firearms and have resulted in relatively low casualties compared to the large-scale attacks in the 2010s.
While Iran is expected to deny responsibility, the fact that the suspects were allegedly in contact with an operative in Iran indicates Teheran’s involvement is highly likely. This is further supported by the foiled plots against Israeli and Jewish targets in 2022 detailed above, as well as reports indicating that Iranian attack plots have intensified in the past two years. Additional targets include government officials, Iranian dissidents, and journalists operating outside of Iran.
Moreover, that the suspects were allegedly promised monetary compensation is liable to heighten already elevated concerns over Iranian operatives using hitmen. The use of proxies not only provides Iran with plausible deniability but also gives its operatives global reach, given the potential for extensive recruitment. This is evidenced by the recruitment of Azerbaijan and Pakistan nationals, as well as reports indicating that Iran has recruited proxies at prisons in the UAE.
FORECAT: While the NSC has already issued travel advisories, including Level 3 threat levels for Egypt, Bahrain, and the UAE, the NSC may increase its threat level for Greece due to the scale of the attack plot. Given the elevated threat posed by Iran, Israel is likely to carry out similar coordinated operations with intelligence agencies throughout Europe.
FORECAST: Considering the symbolic nature of the attack targets and timing in Athens, future attack plots are likely to use similar targets. These include Israeli businesses, Jewish community centers, synagogues, and Jewish schools. While Israeli diplomatic missions are also plausible attack targets, given the level of security at these establishments, the potential for an attack to be successful is low. As such, lower-profile targets that are still linked to Israelis or Jews are more likely. Moreover, the use of kidnapping in such plots is also plausible, given that the successful kidnapping of Israeli nationals could allow for political demands as it would require state intervention.
Given the upcoming Passover festival coincides with Ramadan, there is an increased risk of attacks against Jewish and Israeli locations in the coming weeks, with other community gatherings liable to be targeted. As such, increased security is likely to be witnessed in the vicinity of synagogues and community centers.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Europe going forward are advised to maintain vigilance due to the potential threat of targeted attacks against Israel-linked and Jewish individuals and organizations during the Passover festival.
Public, private, and third sector organizations are advised to increase awareness of threats on social media using threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
For any questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected]

Low

Athens, Greece

High

Confirmed

Greece Alert: Two arrested in alleged Iranian plot against Israeli, Jewish targets in Athens on March 28; threat of attacks to remain elevated during Passover

Please be advised

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

Please be advised

Assessments & Forecast

Recommendations

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