• Armed attacks targeting government buildings and police stations continued in Port-au-Prince on March 10, for the eleventh consecutive day of the “Vivre Ansam”-led gang offensive, with no significant signs of abatement in the near term. 
• US and European authorities carried out evacuation efforts for their consular staff from Port-au-Prince on March 10, while several foreigners remain stranded amid limited operational travel infrastructural facilities.  
• The lack of a political solution, coupled with no conclusive agreements on the Transitional Council is expected to render volatility to the political landscape, especially amid incumbent PM Henry’s eroding legitimacy and prevalent anti-Henry sentiments.  
• Despite the increasing regional response to the ongoing security crisis, any measure deemed as “interventionist” carries the potential to further escalate the crisis.  
• Meanwhile, disruptions to travel, healthcare, and consular services can be expected in the near term.  

Notable Security Incidents:  

• According to reports, the widespread offensive by gangs in Port-au-Prince (PauP), that unfolded on February 29, continued for the eleventh consecutive day on March 10.  
• The Syndicat National des Policiers Haitiens (National Union of Haitian Police), reported that armed bandits wearing Police Nationale d’Haiti (PNH) uniforms and traveling aboard police patrol vehicles continued to attack police stations among other public buildings in PauP, per March 10 reports.  
• Consequently, citizens have reportedly taken refuge in government buildings such as the Institute of Social Welfare and Research and the Ministry of Communication as of March 10.  
• Further, between February 29-March 3, over 21 public institutions were vandalized or looted, nine sub-police stations set ablaze, and prison facilities attacked resulting in the escape of over 5000 inmates in PauP.  
• The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that over 362,000 citizens have been displaced nationwide, with over 160,000 in Port-au-Prince alone between February 29-March 9. 
• As per March 10 reports, anti-government demonstrations have been recorded in parts of PauP, while PM Ariel Henry remains stranded in Puerto Rico as of writing and refuses to step down from his position, despite popular demands. 

Evacuation Efforts by the USA and European Union: 

• The US Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) has maintained a Level 4 travel advisory (Do not travel) to Haiti as of March 10. The advisory mentions the limited or nonexistent options for commercial departure and urges US citizens to utilize available opportunities to leave Haiti at the earliest.  
• Further, as per March 9 reports, US President Joe Biden authorized the additional deployment of US troops in PauP to reinforce security measures at the US Embassy in Tabarre, PauP and facilitate the evacuation of non-essential personnel. The operation, was executed with a military aircraft, focused on airlifting only US government personnel.  
• Additionally, a US official spokesperson mentioned that the embassy nonetheless “remains open, on limited operations” with reduced personnel. 
• Moreover, the US Southern Command emphasized that “no Haitians were on board the military aircraft,” dispelling speculations about the potential departure of high-ranking Haitian officials. 
• Besides, the German ambassador to Haiti, along with other European Union diplomats, departed PauP on March 10 due to the increasingly tense security situation in the country. The German Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the diplomats, including the EU delegation representatives, relocated to the Dominican Republic. 

Flight and Port Disruptions: 

• According to March 10 reports, dozens of foreigners from the USA and Canada, are stranded in Haiti due to the escalating violence and the closure of the Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) in Tabarre commune since the first week of March. Private evacuation flights for missionaries have been canceled or postponed, leaving individuals in lockdown. 
• The Autorite Portuaire Nationale (APN) port authorities announced that port services in PauP continues to remain suspended since March 6 following gang attacks and lootings.  
• Further, as of March 10, the roads leading to the Caribbean Port Services (CPS) terminal in PauP remain blocked by armed gangs. Private port companies have announced that shipments which are already en-route to Haiti will be discharged at the transshipment port in Kingston, Jamaica until the services at PauP are resumed. 

Regional Response and Co-operation:  

• The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) will hold an extraordinary session in Kingston, Jamaica on March 11, to discuss the security situation and the future course of action in Haiti’s political transition. Countries including the USA, France, and Brazil are also expected to join the meeting.
• As per March 10 reports, Canada, has pledged 80.5 million USD for a multinational security mission to support the PNH. Further, Ottawa will be sending its ambassador to the UN, Bob Rae, to an emergency meeting in Jamaica on March 11 invited by CARICOM.  
• In addition to this, March 9 reports indicate that at the 2024 Annual Meeting of the Boards of Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and IDB Invest in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, President Ilan Goldfajn announced that the IDB has earmarked 160 million USD in donations for Haiti. The funds are intended to address the economic and social crisis exacerbated by armed groups.  

Security Outlook 

1. The latest developments underscore the sustained volatile security situation in PauP, owing to the ensuing violence perpetrated by G9 and G-PEP rival gangs, currently unified under the “Vivre Ansanm” alliance. With this, gang violence manifesting largely as arson and shooting attacks will continue in PauP’s neighborhoods with strategic facilities such as government buildings, police stations, and critical infrastructure including airports, highways, hospitals, and port terminals. This is expected to be recorded in PauP’s north and north-east areas including in Cite Soleil, Clercine, Marin, Santo, Lizon, near the PAP Airport, along Avenue John Brown, commonly known as Lalue, at Rue Lamarre and Rue Borgella (downtown PauP), Pernier and on the Route de Freres, in the commune of Petionville (east of the capital, PauP). 
2. Furthermore, March 11 reports have indicated clashes between armed bandits in the Leogane commune of Leogane arrondisement in the Ouest Department, while unconfirmed reports have recorded attacks targeting fishing vessels along the northern coast. Therefore, while there is potential for the ongoing violence to extend towards communes located in the immediate outskirts of the PauP city, albeit limited to the Ouest Department and along the northern coastal areas, a widespread escalation akin to PauP’s security landscape and spillover to other departments besides Ouest, remains low in the coming hours.   

Potential Triggers for Further Escalation & Ramifications 

1. With the Dominican Republic declaring PM Henry as “persona non grata” combined with the violence continuing in retaliation to PM Ariel Henry’s refusal to step down, despite mounting domestic and international pressure, public sentiments are likely to remain heightened. Besides, given the impasse on a political solution, coupled with no conclusive agreements on the Transitional Council proposed by opposition leaders such as Guy Philippe, the political situation is expected to remain extremely volatile, especially amid incumbent PM Henry’s eroding legitimacy and prevalent anti-Henry sentiments.  
2. Henry’s continuation as the Prime Minister or his appointment as the chair of the Transitional Council will not only prompt an escalation in gang activity, but also potentially trigger high-risk anti-government protests in the coming days. This is more likely to be recorded in PauP and across northern regions including Ouanaminthe and Cap Haitien, where anti-government mobilizations previously gained widespread momentum and traction especially in Cap Haitien in January and February. Should protests transpire, the potential for an escalation in unrest remains imminent, with violence amid demonstrations also emulating gang tactics such as vandalism, blockades, blazing barricades, lootings, arson, and shooting attacks, further blurring the difference between civil society-led protests and gang attacks.  
3. Moreover, should the Haiti-Kenya “reciprocal agreement” materialize, or any actions perceived as “foreign interference” be recorded, attacks on foreign consular offices can be expected. Given this, foreign engagement will likely be limited to financial assistance in the coming days, as opposed to a foreign military deployment. Meanwhile, the latest evacuations of US and European consular personnel and the suspension of consular services will likely present further challenges for evacuation assistance via foreign missions.  
4. Finally, significant disruptions to all essential services including healthcare are imminent, with several hospitals experiencing fuel and oxygen shortages. Similarly, normalization of flight services via PAP Airport and port activities remains unlikely in the near term, with no significant abatement in gang violence reported as of March 10.  

1. Avoid all travel to and operations in Haiti due to the extreme risk of gang violence and civil unrest.  
2. Those continuing to operate or reside in Haiti are advised to minimize all outdoor movement, observe the nightly curfew, and avoid the vicinity of all political gatherings.  
3. Avoid all travel in the vicinity of the PAP airport, police stations, and government buildings due to the heightened threat of attacks targeting these facilities and the risk of ensuing clashes between gang members and security forces.