Protest

04
Mar 2024
4:45 UTC

India Tactical: Opposition AIADMK to hold demonstrations across districts in Tamil Nadu during morning hours (local time) on March 4; maintain vigilance

Current Situation:

  • The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the opposition party in Tamil Nadu State, announced protests outside all District Collectorate offices statewide during the morning hours (local time) on March 4. 
  • The demonstrations will be held to condemn the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) party’s perceived failure to control drug trafficking.  

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The turnout in the slated demonstrations will vary per location. While it will likely range in the high dozens to low hundreds in the party’s stronghold in western region, including Coimbatore and Salem districts, participation will likely reach the mid dozens in other parts of the state. The turnout in the state capital Chennai is anticipated to be in the low hundreds as a symbolic display of strength ahead of the April-May general elections. The party is liable to instruct local leaders to mobilize large numbers of supporters to maintain the current momentum of anti-DMK demonstrations across the state in recent days.  
  2. The authorities are likely to bolster security measures across major cities, particularly in Chennai, to prevent potential unrest. These will potentially include the deployment of additional police personnel and ad-hoc traffic diversion measures. There is a risk of inter-party clashes between the demonstrators and DMK supporters should the latter’s local cadres organize impromptu counter-protests. There also remains a low-level risk of clashes between the police and protesters should the latter engage in majorly disruptive activities or block major thoroughfares in the cities. In such cases, the police are liable to employ crowd dispersal measures such as temporary detentions and baton charges. Particularly in Chennai, travel disruptions are likely along Rajaji Salai where the District Collector office is located.  

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Tamil Nadu on March 4 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the slated demonstrations and the associated risk of clashes while allotting for travel disruptions.  

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Tamil Nadu, India
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation:

  • The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the opposition party in Tamil Nadu State, announced protests outside all District Collectorate offices statewide during the morning hours (local time) on March 4. 
  • The demonstrations will be held to condemn the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) party’s perceived failure to control drug trafficking.  

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The turnout in the slated demonstrations will vary per location. While it will likely range in the high dozens to low hundreds in the party’s stronghold in western region, including Coimbatore and Salem districts, participation will likely reach the mid dozens in other parts of the state. The turnout in the state capital Chennai is anticipated to be in the low hundreds as a symbolic display of strength ahead of the April-May general elections. The party is liable to instruct local leaders to mobilize large numbers of supporters to maintain the current momentum of anti-DMK demonstrations across the state in recent days.  
  2. The authorities are likely to bolster security measures across major cities, particularly in Chennai, to prevent potential unrest. These will potentially include the deployment of additional police personnel and ad-hoc traffic diversion measures. There is a risk of inter-party clashes between the demonstrators and DMK supporters should the latter’s local cadres organize impromptu counter-protests. There also remains a low-level risk of clashes between the police and protesters should the latter engage in majorly disruptive activities or block major thoroughfares in the cities. In such cases, the police are liable to employ crowd dispersal measures such as temporary detentions and baton charges. Particularly in Chennai, travel disruptions are likely along Rajaji Salai where the District Collector office is located.  

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Tamil Nadu on March 4 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the slated demonstrations and the associated risk of clashes while allotting for travel disruptions.  

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Tamil Nadu, India
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible