• Reports indicate that the opposition is slated to hold an anti-government protest march from Port Louis municipality to the Government House at 14:00 (local time) in Port Louis on February 13.
• The exact route of this march remains unclear at the time of writing. 
• The participants include the opposition Labor Party, Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM), and several other civil society organizations. 
• This protest is being held to denounce PM Pravind Kumar Jugnauth’s perceived misgovernance and to demand the resignation of the current government. 

1. This protest march is notable given its relatively large scope, with the participation of the main opposition parties and several civil society organizations. Therefore, this protest is likely being held to demonstrate opposition unity and project strength against the current government. The protest is also likely being held to rally civilian support and create a larger base ahead of the 2024 elections, to ensure that the ruling Militant Socialist Movement (MSM) does not win a third straight election. 
2. FORECAST: Given the participation of prominent opposition parties and civil society organizations, this protest can be expected to see participation in the low to mid hundreds. The sensitive nature of the protest locations suggests a bolstered security presence in the vicinity of the Port Louis municipality, Government House and along the protest route. Given precedent, this protest is likely to occur in a peaceful manner. That said, there remains a distant possibility of security forces using forcible measures of dispersion such as tear gas and batons if the protestors are deemed to be behaving in an unruly manner or not following COVID-19 social distancing regulations. Ultimately, traffic disruptions can be expected in the vicinity of the march during the afternoon hours.

Those operating or residing in Port Louis on February 13 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the Port Louis municipality and Government House due to the slated protest and associated potential for unrest.