The following report reviews current events in the AFRICA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security.

• Burkina Faso: Army Chief of Staff denies alleged collusion of senior military officials with militants on August 29; tensions to persist
• Mozambique: Security forces recapture base in Muidumbe District, Cabo Delgado Province on August 27; further operations likely
• Nigeria: ESN members killed in gunfire exchange with security forces in Akata, Oru East LGA, Imo State on August 27; insecurity to persist
• South Sudan: Civil society to hold anti-government protests nationwide, including in Juba on August 30; avoid nonessential travel
• Uganda: President Museveni accuses ADF of standing behind plot to attack at funeral of known police general; reflects threat perception

Mali: CSTM to hold nationwide 72-hour strike between August 30-September 1; allot for disruptions 

Reports indicate that the Confederation Syndicale des Travailleurs du Mali (CSTM) is slated to hold a 72 hour-long nationwide strike between August 30-September 1. The strike is reportedly held to denounce the government’s perceived failure to follow through with commitments previously agreed upon regarding labor action regulations for the sectors of health, education and transportation. 

The CSTM is considered a prominent union confederation and represents workers from various sectors. Given that the strike is held over the authorities’ perceived non-implementation of agreements reached years ago, this is illustrative of the workers’ long-standing grievances. Given that the CSTM gathers workers from various sectors, the slated strike is likely to disrupt basic services, especially in the health and transportation fields, across Mali, including in Bamako. This might prompt the authorities to initiate a dialogue with CSTM representatives to reach an ad-hoc agreement and bring a swift end to the strike. However, given the government’s lack of adequate bureaucratic and financial capabilities, long-term solutions are unlikely and additional labor action is expected over the coming months. 

Those operating or residing in Mali from August 30-September 1 are advised to allot for disruptions to business continuity given the planned strike. 

South Africa: National Youth Group (NYG) slated to hold protest march in Pretoria on August 30; maintain heightened vigilance

According to a poster circulating on social media, the National Youth Group (NYG) is slated to hold a protest march in Pretoria at 10:00 (local time) on August 30. The participants are expected to gather at Church Square and then march towards the Union Buildings. As of writing, the exact route of the protest march remains unspecified. The slated protest march is being organized to denounce the continued government-imposed COVID-19 restrictions.

This comes amid the heightened public frustration against the repeated extension of strong COVID-19 measures. Given relatively strong public grievances over this matter, there may be low-to-mid hundreds of people participating in the protest march. The anti-government nature of the march suggests a bolstered security presence along the march route, and security forces are liable to use forcible measures of dispersion including tear gas and batons if the protesters are deemed to behave in an unruly manner or not following COVID-19 social distancing regulations. Traffic disruptions can be expected in the vicinity of the protest march route during late morning hours.

Those operating or residing in Pretoria on August 30 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the Church Square and the Union Buildings due to the slated protest march and the associated potential for unrest.

South Sudan: Civil society to hold anti-government protests nationwide, including in Juba on August 30; avoid nonessential travel

Reports indicate that the civil society platform People’s Coalition for Civil Action (PCCA) protests will take place in multiple locations across Juba, including Bilpam Junction, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Headquarters, and Hai Referendum. Authorities have reportedly banned the demonstrations and arrested activists, journalists and religious leaders associated with the protest. The authorities also re-imposed COVID-19 restrictions, including a ban on gatherings. The protests are reportedly held to denounce the perceived lengthy transitional process and demand President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar resign.

This is notable given the rarity of political protests in Juba, illustrating the entrenched dissatisfaction with Kiir’s administration. The arrests of PCCA-affiliated figures reflect the authorities’ threat perception and are likely seen by organizers as an opportunity to attract supporters. The entrenched anti-government grievances may suggest a potential for the participation of low-to-mid hundreds across Juba. However, potential participants will likely remain deterred from an expected security crackdown. The security forces are poised to be heavily deployed and forcefully disperse any gathering with arrests, batons and tear gas, and in extreme cases even live fire.

Those operating or residing in Juba on August 30 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of protest venues and other large gatherings due to the planned protest action and the heightened potential for unrest and security crackdowns.

Burkina Faso: Army Chief of Staff denies alleged collusion of senior military officials with militants on August 29; tensions to persist

In an official communique, the Army Chief of Staff denied rumors circulating on social media that senior military officials supplied militants with arms and information regarding security forces’ positions in 2019 in exchange for money. The Chief of Staff called for the public to ignore such rumors and to continue to show solidarity with the security forces.

This development highlights the extent of mistrust between civil society and the militants, with the Chief of Staff himself being required to address the rumored collusion of high-ranking officers with militants. While the veracity of these specific allegations is not known, endemic corruption and indiscipline within the Burkinabe security forces may contribute to sporadic collusion between militants and members of the security forces. In this context, the Chief of Staff’s denial may deepen civilian mistrust of the security forces due to the perceived lack of accountability with civil society groups and opposition parties possibly demanding an official inquiry. Tensions are therefore likely to remain high, with militants seeking to capitalize on reduced civilian trust towards the authorities to further entrench themselves.

Cameroon: Government issues month-long deadline for international NGOs to submit documentation, reported on August 27; to tighten control

Reports indicate that the Ministry of Territorial Administration issued a month-long deadline to foreign aid organizations operating in the country to submit official documents to prove registration in the country. Failure to submit the required documents on time will reportedly result in the immediate suspension of operations. 

This aligns with the government’s entrenched suspicions towards international non-governmental organizations (NGO) with Cameron accusing such aid agencies of supporting and cooperating with armed Anglophone separatists operating in Northwest and Southwest regions. This approach was demonstrated in early August, when a prominent organization withdrew its operations in the Northwest Region after an eight-month-long suspension by the authorities. Therefore, this government’s demand reflects an intent to tighten control on international organizations operating in Cameroon, particularly in conflict zones. Considering that the Cameroonian bureaucracy is considered relatively slow, it is possible that the one-month-long deadline will not allow some organizations to fulfill the authorities’ demands. In this context, international humanitarian operations might decrease over the coming weeks and months, especially in the Anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions, further deteriorating the humanitarian landscape. 

DRC: Former Minister of Health Eteni Longondo arrested on August 27 for alleged embezzlement; potential for political tensions 

Reports indicate that Longondo was placed under provisional arrest over allegations that he misappropriated more than seven million USD allocated to the COVID-19 response when he served as Health Minister in 2020. He was reportedly transferred to Makala Central Prison after being questioned at the Public Prosecutor’s office. Longondo, who was in office until April, has reportedly denied accusations. 

Accusations against Longondo were issued as early as August 2020 but the case did not progress, with him returning 721,900 USD to the public treasury in November 2020. His arrest is notable given that Longondo is the first member of President Felix Tshisekedi’s Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party that is being detained for corruption under Tshisekedi’s rule. The legal measures against Longondo are likely taken with Tshisekedi’s awareness, possibly in an attempt to display judicial transparency and dismiss claims that only political opponents are prosecuted. It is also possible that Tshisekedi will use this development to reject criticism over alleged mismanagement of the fight against COVID-19. This also has the potential to create tensions within Tshisekedi’s UDPS.

Mozambique: Security forces recapture base in Muidumbe District, Cabo Delgado Province on August 27; further operations likely

Reports indicate that during Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) joint security operations, they captured the N’Tchinga base in Muidumbe District, which was allegedly under militant control. 

The recapture of a military base is notable and comes amid enhanced joint FDS-RDF security operations across various districts of the Cabo Delgado Province, particularly building on the momentum of successes in Mocimboa da Praia District to continue dislodging militants and recovering territory. This reflects the forces’ intention to maintain the current momentum to record additional success and project superior capabilities to reassure the public and demoralize the fleeing militants. Further, the recapture of a base may allow the security forces to entrench themselves in the area and launch additional operations in Muidumbe District over the coming weeks. However, given precedent, it is highly likely that the militants withdrew from the base as they are aware of the FDS-RDF joint force’s superiority, and they are expected to disperse and regroup in the aftermath of security operations. In these circumstances, militants will likely remain capable of launching further attacks. 

Nigeria: ESN members killed in gunfire exchange with security forces in Akata, Oru East LGA, Imo State on August 27; insecurity to persist

Reports indicate that an unspecified number of Indigenous People of Biafra’s (IPOB) Eastern Security Network (ESN) members, including one of their commanders, were killed as police forces raided ESN camps in Akata, Oru East Local Government Area (LGA). One police officer was reportedly killed. Weapons, IEDs and a vehicle were seized in an operation based on an intelligence alert of an imminent attack against police and government targets. 

This follows a short lull in IPOB attacks since the August 13 attack in Izombe, Oguta LGA of Imo State, which left two policemen killed. The police raid is indicative of the continued security operations against IPOB, which have yet to record a significant success in quelling the IPOB-led attacks across the southeastern states, even after the group’s leader Nnamdi Kanu was detained in late June. The fact that this operation was based on specific intelligence suggests that locals may have alerted the authorities, which illustrates the potential for violence to reduce IPOB’s public support. IPOB will likely remain capable of launching further attacks over the coming weeks and months.

Nigeria: ISWAP fires rockets at relocation efforts in Mallam Fatori, Abadam LGA, Borno State, reported on August 28; entrenched threat

The Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) released photos depicting the attack against a military base in Mallam Fatori, Abadam Local Government Area (LGA) on August 26. The attack took place as Borno State officials were escorted by Nigerian and Nigerien troops as part of efforts to rebuild infrastructure ahead to allow resettlement of locals who fled to other locations in Borno State or into Niger’s Diffa Region. The Nigerian military reportedly deployed helicopters to conduct a patrol on August 28, after militants were seen in gun trucks. 

This denotes the entrenched militant threat in Abadam LGA, located at the Nigeria-Niger border along Lake Chad shores, where thousands fled their homes. Furthermore, the targeting of resettlement efforts denotes militant efforts to destabilize the area through intimidation. While the deployment of security forces may enable the authorities to complete rebuilding efforts, the continued militant presence is likely to deter civilians from returning to the area. This is also expected to exacerbate perceptions that the authorities are incapable of delivering security, with locals possibly relying on the militants for basic services.

Uganda: President Museveni accuses ADF of standing behind plot to attack at funeral of known police general; reflects threat perception

Reports from August 27 indicate that President Yoweri Museveni accused the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) armed group of standing behind the foiled plot to attack the funeral service of General Paul Lokech. President Museveni reportedly stated that he is holding talks with DRC President Felix Tshisekedi regarding cooperation in fighting ADF.

This follows the thwarted planned suicide bomb attack in Pader, Pader District, Northern Region targetting former Deputy Inspector General of Police, Lt. General Paul Lokech’s funeral ceremony on August 26. Preliminary reports linked the plot to both ADF and the Somali al-Shabaab militants. The specific accusation against ADF aligns with an enhanced threat perception towards the group after authorities blamed it for trying to assassinate former Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF) Chief General Katumba Wamala on June 1, with Lokech leading the investigation. With the two countries already agreeing to cooperate in fighting the ADF and as the ADF threat to Uganda is perceived as imminent, Uganda may seek to take a direct role in security operations in eastern DRC over the coming weeks and months.

August 30, 2021

• eSwatini: Umhlanga/Reed Dance

September 1, 2021

• Eritrea: Revolution Day

September 5, 2021

• Sao Tome & Principe: Second Round of Presidential Elections

September 6, 2021

• eSwatini: Somhlolo Day
• Sao Tome & Principe: Armed Forces’ Day

September 7, 2021

• Mozambique: Victory Day