Current Situation: According to reports, pro-Palestinian protests are slated in Montreal, QC, Canada, Merida, Mexico, and Montevideo, Uruguay, on February 28-March 1. In Montreal, QC, a protest is slated at the LaurenHill Academy on Boulevard Cote Vertu Ouest from 14:00 (local time) on February 28. In Montevideo, a protest is scheduled at the Explanada of the Mayor’s Office from 18:30 on February 29. In Merida, a demonstration will be held at the Plaza Grande from 18:00 on March 1.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given precedent and social media traction, the protests are likely to draw a turnout between the low-to-mid hundreds. Localized scuffles between protesters, potential pro-Israel counter-protesters, and police remain plausible amid heightened sentiments over the conflict, especially in Canada. Should clashes or prolonged roadblocks occur, police are expected to conduct arrests. In Montevideo and Merida, the protests are likely to transpire peacefully. Bolstered security measures to monitor proceedings and traffic disruptions are anticipated near protests during the slated timings.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Montreal, QC, Canada on February 28 are advised to advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the planned protest. Allot for traffic disruptions near all protest locations on February 28-March 1, including in Merida, Mexico and Montevideo, Uruguay.

Current Situation: Over 10 environmental organizations including the “Cenotes Urbanos” have called for a protest near Estacion Tren Maya train station in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo (QR) on February 29. The demonstration is scheduled to begin at 08:30 (local time) and coincides with the inauguration of Estacion Tren Maya and Section 5 route on the Tren Maya network connecting Playa del Carmen and Cancun. The protest is being called to denounce the alleged environmental degradation caused by the station’s construction.  

Assessments & Forecast: Based on similar demonstrations held along Tren Maya routes on January 4 and December 31, 2023, the protest will likely witness a turnout in the mid-dozens. Further, delays in train services can be anticipated during the protest, especially with protesters expected to use blankets, mattresses, and other objects to block trains as seen in previous demonstrations. However, a complete stoppage of train services remains unlikely. Moreover, the protest is expected to transpire largely peacefully, without instances of unrest. Consequently, localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic near Estacion Tren Maya are likely during the morning hours on February 29.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Playa del Carmen on February 29 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel due to the slated demonstrations during the morning hours. 

Current Situation: On February 27, Policia Militar (PM, military police), carried out security operations in several North Zone favelas, leaving nine suspects dead, six individuals including two officers injured, and two suspects arrested in Rio de Janeiro (RDJ). The operation prompted the closure of educational institutions, impacting over 22,000 students.  

Assessments & Forecast: The operations were likely conducted to capture Comando Vermelho (CV) militia leaders, as this follows clashes between CV and Terceiro Comando Puro (TCP) militias in RDJ on February 15-16. Moreover, authorities likely targeted the areas of Complexo da Mare, Alemao, and Penha to dismantle CV given their strong operational network and tactical capabilities in the region, further evidenced by security forces seizing eight firearms and alleged CV members setting up metal barricades to prevent PM personnel entry into the neighborhoods. Given authorities’ ongoing efforts to crackdown on organized crime in RDJ, evidenced by the government’s allocation of 180 million USD for this purpose in September 2023, further security operations to curb drug trafficking operations in the North Zone, and subsequent disruptions to education, health and transport services are likely to recur intermittently.

Current Situation: Per February 27 reports, two suspects were arrested for attempted carjackings on February 9, when four armed suspects followed two individuals to their vehicle on the intersection of Dufferin Street and Yorkdale Road near a shopping center in 3401 Dufferin St, Toronto, ON, pointed a firearm and assaulted one individual, resulting in non-life-threatening injuries. Separately, one suspect was arrested for attempted carjacking on February 17, when three suspects injured one individual demanding vehicle keys, in the same area. 

Assessments & Forecast: Despite January 25 reports indicating a decline in the overall number of carjacking incidents in Toronto in 2023, compared to 2022, the recent events highlight the increasing use of weapons during carjacking in the city, albeit fatalities being rare. The incident is also reflective of the sustained attempts to tackle the issue of carjacking following the establishment of the Provincial Carjacking Joint Task Force (PCJTF) on October 2023, with the arrest of 89 criminals since then. Despite this, carjackings are expected to continue, particularly in low-income neighborhoods of Etobicoke, North York, Scarborough, and Yonge Street Corridor over the near to medium term. 

Current Situation: A soldier of the Ejercito Nacional army fled the scene after killing three officers and injuring one at the operational base of the 49th Infantry Battalion in La Tagua, Putumayo on February 26. A joint search led by the military and police resulted in the arrest of the soldier and an accompanying individual on February 27. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on preliminary investigations linking the perpetrator to the Estado Mayor Central faction of Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) dissidents, the incident highlights the intermittent threat posed by dissident group-backed agents serving within the military, supported by the murders of at least four personnel by infiltrators in Bogota and Antioquia, in May and August 2023, respectively. Alleged infiltrations highlight the likely inefficacy of due diligence and background checks conducted on cadets, which elevate the potential compromising of military security operations and planning, with the threat of the proliferation of sensitive information by infiltrators. While such incidents occur rarely, the threat to soldiers remains nonetheless, with seven killed and 32 injured in violent attacks targeting the military in 12 departments nationwide in January alone. 

Current Situation: On February 25, alleged illegal loggers fatally shot three forest patrol agents and injured another near the slopes of the Iztaccihuatl volcano in Puebla.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident underscores the heightened threat posed by illicit logging along the slopes of prominent volcanoes such as near Iztaccihuatl, with groups engaged in illegal logging often possessing armed capabilities to attack individuals perceived as obstacles to their activities including using clandestine explosives to deter local forest community members from patrolling. Previous similar instances have been recorded in Ixtacamaxtitlan, San Felipe Teotlalcingo, and Chiautzingo. Based on precedent, the attacks are likely to largely target local patrolling agents and environmental activists supported by the killing of a researcher in Mexico City, allegedly for his work on the Izraccihuatl region on June 23, 2022, and the killing of an Indigenous anti-logging activist in Purepecha village, Sicuicho, on February 23, 2023. Although tourists are not typically targeted, given that Iztaccihuatl is a tourist spot for its volcano and national parks, there is a credible threat of spillover violence amid shooting attacks. 

Current Situation: On February 26, Miguel Angel Reyes, the mayoral candidate for the MORENA party in Maravatio, Michoacan, was fatally shot in his vehicle. Separately, Armando Perez, the Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate in Maravatio, was shot in his vehicle in the Infonavit neighborhood. MORENA’s national leadership urged against generalizing the incidents, emphasizing they were isolated, amidst preparations for the June 2 general elections.  

Assessments & Forecast: The possibility of the attacks being perpetrated by an organized criminal group active in the municipality, including Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) or Los Correas, cannot be ruled out, to either assert dominance in the area amid ongoing territorial disputes or to intimidate local politicians ahead of the upcoming polls. This is evidenced by the February 18 CJNG attack on the headquarters of Tarecuato town in Michoacan. Regardless, the incidents indicate the credible threat of political violence, particularly in the form of shootings, targeting local candidates nationwide. Going forward, the trend of political violence is likely to remain localized, largely influenced by narco-political dynamics, especially in high-crime areas with a strong presence of cartels like Michoacan or Guerrero.  

Current Situation: On February 27, the Cartel del Noreste (CDN) attacked municipal buildings and multiple emergency response vehicles with high-caliber weapons and incendiary bombs in Doctor Coss, Nuevo Leon (NL). This follows reports of an armed confrontation between the CDN and Cartel del Golfo (CDG) in the same town, on February 26. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident underscores persisting insecurity in NL, supported by the Secretario de Seguridad’s data indicating 19 cartel-related armed confrontations near Doctor Coss in 2023, with the above incident following another attack against a military convoy in China, NL which left one officer dead, on January 10. The CDN-CDG turf wars over NL and US-bound drug trafficking corridors are exacerbated by the potential expansion of Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion in NL supported by graffiti discovered on January 28 alluding to the group’s arrival in Santa Catarina, near Monterrey. Despite the announcement of increased security measures in Doctor Coss, insecurity due to inter-cartel violence, manifesting as armed attacks and ambushes against state facilities and personnel are likely to persist, especially along the towns between Nuevo Leon-Tamaulipas.