Current Situation: Multiple LGBTQ+ pride parades are scheduled across Canada, Mexico, and the USA on June 15. In Guadalajara, a pride march is slated at Glorieta Minerva from 13:00 (local time). In Merida, Yucatan, a parade is slated at Monumento a la Patria from 16:00. In Portland, ME, a parade is slated at Monument Square from 13:30. In Providence, RI a parade is slated at the intersection of Empire and Washington from 19:45. In Brandon, MB a march is scheduled at Bandon City Hall from 13:00. In York, ON a parade is scheduled from the Queen and Main intersection at 15:00. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given precedent, the parades are expected to draw varying turnouts in the low-to high tens of thousands. While parades in Canada and Mexico are likely to transpire peacefully, concerns about potential discriminatory violence cannot be ruled out in the USA. Besides, spontaneous small-scale gatherings by conservative individuals or groups may occur, especially in the USA, potentially resulting in localized scuffles. Heightened security measures and disruptions to traffic can be anticipated along the route of the parades. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned cities in Canada, Mexico and the USA on June 15 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for disruptions to travel near the slated Pride events. 

Current Situation: In Chile, the Servicio Nacional de Prevencion y Respuesta ante Desastres (SENAPRED) has issued multiple red alerts, the highest on a three-tier scale, on June 14, due to the potential for heavy rains in the communes of Angol, Renaico, Lumaco, Collipulli and Ercilla in Malleco Province, La Araucania and for Ninhue, San Nicolas, Portezuelo and Trehuaco communes in Nuble  region. SENAPRED has also issued a red alert for the possible overflowing of the Pichilo, Lia, Andalien, Curanilahue, Leiva, Vergara and Biobio rivers as well as the  Hualqui estuary in Biobio region. In Costa Rica, the Instituto Meterologico Nacional (IMN) has forecasted extreme rainfall and thunderstorms due to the passage of a new tropical wave across the country for June 14-15. In the USA, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued an excessive heat warning for south-central Arizona and southeast California until June 16. Meanwhile, a red flag warning for lightning has been issued for parts of eastern Alaska until the night hours of June 14, while flood warnings have been issued for parts of Wisconsin, Texas, Missouri until June 15.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Chile, Costa Rica, and the USA from June 14 -16 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. 

Current Situation: Teachers affiliated with the Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educacion (CNTE) union have announced a march from Crucero de Viguera to Zocalo, Oaxaca city in Oaxaca state at 09:00 (local time) on June 14. The march is being held in commemoration of CNTE victims of the alleged police brutality in 2006.  

Assessments & Forecast: Based on the previous annual commemorative marches held over the issue in Oaxaca city, the slated march is expected to draw attendance in the mid-to high thousands and transpire without unrest. Considering the anticipated turnout and precedent, the slated event is liable to cause significant disruptions to public education services across Oaxaca city on June 14. A security presence can be expected near the march locations to monitor proceedings and divert traffic. Disruptions to vehicular traffic can be anticipated near Crucero de Viguera and Zocalo from the morning hours.  

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Oaxaca city on June 14 are advised to allot for disruptions in the vicinity of Crucero de Viguera and Zocalo due to the slated march from the morning hours. Allot for potential disruptions to public education services. 

Current Situation: On June 12, state-owned energy firm Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) announced the cessation of activities due to the forced closure of the Yarara-X2 well valves by residents of Yapacani, Santa Cruz department on June 11. YPFB estimates a daily loss of 306,000 BOB (44,540 USD) due to the closure. 

Assessments & Forecast: The coerced closure of the well’s valves, marks a notable escalation in ongoing demonstrations organized by Comite Pro Caminos (CPC) and local transportation unions, since June 7, to demand that the Asamblea Legislativa Plurinacional approve 35 million USD in credit for the Norte Integrado-Yapacani highway’s construction. Although Camara de Diputados approved the credits on June 13, protestors will likely maintain roadblocks until the Senate also grants its approval. Meanwhile, heightened security measures near Yarara-X2 and other Yapacani wells are likely to be enforced to forestall further intervention by protestors, potentially leading to low-to-medium scale scuffles. Additionally, fuel shortages will likely persist, necessitating the deployment of military personnel to gas stations, as seen in El Alto and Cochabamba on June 12, thereby resulting in longer waiting lines and temporary traffic disruptions. 

Current Situation: Per June 13 reports, 100 high-caliber weapons were stolen from a gun store in Ceilandia, Brasilia between June 8-10. The criminals allegedly rented an adjacent room, broke through the walls, and took the store’s security surveillance. The stolen items include revolvers, pistols, and carbines valued at 500,000 BRL (92,000 USD). 

Assessments & Forecast: The sophisticated nature of the unprecedented firearms theft, considered one of the largest in Brasilia’s recent history, highlights the involvement of organized criminal groups, possibly Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comboio do Cao (CDC), known for arms trafficking in Brasilia. The loss of security cameras and gun theft from a safe will likely raise concerns of insider involvement, especially with Brazil witnessing an 85 percent increase in firearm stolen and illegal sale of firearms (driven by high profits up to ten times the original price) from legal firearm holders in 2023, compared to 2019. That said, the crime is reflective of the broader trend of reported increase in firearms theft nationwide from private owners, legal gun stores, and army arsenals since 2019, which are then funneled to organized crime groups.  

Current Situation: Authorities announced a curfew from 19:00-05:00 (local time) in Cajibio, Cauca until June 17. Further, parking near public institutions and police stations is prohibited. This follows gunfire by Estado Mayor Central Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) members outside a police station in Cajibio on June 13. In Suarez, Cauca, suspects fired shots at a police station on June 12. On the same day, an explosive attack by EMC-FARC members was reported near a police patrol in Jamundi, Valle del Cauca, prompting deployment of 60 additional security personnel.  

Assessments & Forecast: The recurring EMC-FARC-led attacks in Cauca and Valle del Cauca underscore the ineffectiveness of military reinforcements in the region. Further, the attacks reflect EMC-FARC’s strong organizational capabilities despite continued military operations in the region, where it seeks control over the drug trafficking routes and dense coca cultivating sites. Given this, retaliatory shootings and explosions targeting police stations, army bases, police and military patrols are likely to recur as Ivan Mordisco-aligned EMC–FARC factions continue to withstand the peace process. Attacks are likely to pose an elevated threat of spillover violence.  

Current Situation: According to a June 11 report citing a Latin America-based civil society organization, instances of press restrictions witnessed an uptick of 245 percent from 2022 to 2023 in the country.  

Assessments & Forecast: The report is consistent with Costa Rica dropping from eighth position to 23 in the World Press Freedom index in 2023. This likely stems from concerns over several instances of alleged government crackdown against the media, including the suspension of a print media company on July 9 citing anonymous complaints, Ministry of Finance accusing the director of a prominent news agency of tax fraud on June 2, and Chaves frequently criticizing certain media houses in public statements for being biased. Thus, the trend suggests higher government scrutiny of traditional print and television agencies perceived to be anti-Chaves. The fact that Chaves was awarded for promoting digital media by private agencies in August and November 2023, respectively, shows the potentially politically-motivated nature of the scrutiny as well as allegations over press freedom. Thus, the press landscape is likely to remain the same until the end of Chaves’ term in 2026. 

Current Situation:  The USA sanctioned 300 Russian entities globally, including in Russia, China, and Turkey among others, whose products and services enable Russia to sustain its war efforts in Ukraine. The sanctions, which come amid the June 13-15 G7 summit in Italy where the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be the main discussion topic, are also aimed at diminishing Russia’s access to foreign technology and IT services.      

Assessments & Forecast: The secondary sanctions highlight the USA’s continued attempts to disrupt supply chains that bolster Russia’s military campaign, with Washington DC imposing broad sanctions on Moscow in March 2022. However, given that Russia incurred economic growth by 3.6 percent in 2023, in part owing to Russia-China bilateral trade that grew by 240 billion USD in 2023, from 190 billion USD in 2022 after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, reflects the sanctions’ limited impact on Russia’s economic or military activities. As such, the sanctions also underscore efforts to impact the China-Russia bilateral trade by disrupting Beijing’s financial transactions with major Russian banks and thereby complicating the flow of goods. Consequently, Washington-Beijing tensions are likely to further increase.