Current Situation: The Sindicato La Fraternidad Conductores de Trenes de la Republica Argentina (La Fraternidad) has called for a 24-hour labor action affecting passenger and cargo railway transit nationwide on June 25. As part of the action, unionized railway workers will limit the speed of trains to 30 kmph on all lines (less than half the normal speed). The labor action is being held to denounce the ongoing wage conflicts with the government and the privatization of state-owned enterprises as part of the Bases Law. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on precedent, including a similar strike held on May 30, the slated labor action is expected to be widely adhered to, prompting significant disruptions to passenger and cargo rail services nationwide on June 25. Alternative modes of transportation, including taxis, buses, and rental services, are likely to be overcrowded, further causing congestion on roads. Spontaneous pickets by unionized railway workers are liable in the vicinity of key railway stations nationwide, including in Buenos Aires. Potential demonstrations will likely draw a turnout in the high dozens at each location and transpire peacefully. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Argentina on June 25 are advised to allot for disruptions to train services due to slated 24-hour labor action. Allot for disruptions to supply chains due to disruptions to rail-based freight transport services. 

Current Situation: Frente Sindical de Universidades Nacionales (FSUN), representing multiple education sector unions, has called for a three-day nationwide “struggle for visibility of the university crisis” from June 25 to 27, along with a protest in front of Palacio Sarmiento in Buenos Aires from 12:00 (local time) on June 25. The protest action has been called to demand an increase in wages. Initially, the FSUN had announced a strike for June 25-27, but this was later modified to the three-day “struggle for visibility.” 

Assessments & Forecast: Considering the organizing groups’ mobilization capabilities, the 72-hour protest action is likely to witness widespread participation. However, it is unlikely to disrupt public education services significantly, as it coincides with the end of the university semester. Given social media traction, the protest is expected to draw a turnout between the mid-to-high hundreds. Although the protest is likely to transpire peacefully given precedent, a security presence near Palacio Sarmiento is expected to monitor proceedings and divert traffic. Consequently, disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic can be anticipated near Palacio Sarmiento on June 25.   

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Buenos Aires on June 25 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Palacio Sarmiento from noon onwards.  

Current Situation: Federacion de Transporte Ferroviario de Carga y Pasajeros transportation union has extended its nationwide strike that began on June 23. The strike now includes services from Empresa de Ferrocarriles del Estado (EFE) Valparaiso and EFE Sur starting June 24. This extension follows a train collision in San Bernardo on June 20, resulting in the deaths of two railway workers. The protestors are calling for a dialogue with EFE and improved operational conditions for safe train circulation. To mitigate the impact of the strike, a set of alternative routes and measures will be implemented. The exact details and timings of the routes can be found here (Spanish). 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on social media traction, the strike is likely to be widely adhered to, particularly in Santiago, causing significant disruptions to passenger and freight rail transport operations nationwide. While no protests have been called as of writing, peaceful demonstrations remain possible near major train stations, particularly in Santiago, Valparaiso, and Concepcion and will likely draw a turnout in the mid-to-high dozens. Localized disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are liable near potential protest locations. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Chile on June 24 are advised to allot for disruptions to rail operations due to the ongoing strike. Allot for disruptions to supply chains due to interruptions in freight transport services, especially to and from Santiago. 

Current Situation: According to reports, pro-Palestinian protests demanding a ceasefire amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict are slated in Mexico and the USA on June 24-25. In Guadalajara, Mexico, a march is slated from Glorieta de las y los Desaparecidos monument to the Universidad de Guadalajara’s General Rectory Building via the US Consulate General on June 25. The march will begin at 17:00 (local time). In the USA, protests are slated at the intersection of Wilshire Boulevard & Western Avenue in Los Angeles, CA, and outside the Consulate General of Israel in Atlanta, GA, at 18:00 on June 24. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given precedent, the protests in Los Angeles and Atlanta are expected to draw turnouts in the high hundreds each. The protest in Guadalajara will likely witness a turnout in the mid-to-high dozens. Based on precedent, the protest in Guadalajara is likely to transpire peacefully. Conversely, protests in the USA can potentially escalate into localized unrest, roadblocks, and scuffles between protesters, security personnel, and potential pro-Israel counter-protesters. A bolstered security presence to monitor proceedings and traffic disruptions can be expected near all protest sites.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned cities in the USA on June 24 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the pro-Palestinian protests due to the potential for unrest. Allot for traffic disruptions near all protest locations, including in Guadalajara, Mexico, on June 25. 

Current Situation: On June 23, three soldiers on patrol in the Puente Velez sector of Jamundi, Valle del Cauca (VdC) were attacked with drone-borne explosives and ‘tatucos’ makeshift mortars. This follows the detonation of an explosive near a police substation in Jamundi’s Robles sector on June 22. Separately, army personnel identified and seized a truck armed with explosives in Cartago, VdC. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incidents reflect the deteriorated security landscape in VdC, amid recurring attacks by substructures linked to the Estado Mayor Central Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) dissident group, as part of its “Plan Pistola” offensive targeting security personnel and infrastructure, with at least four related attacks reported in Jamundi alone since May. The use of drones, tatucos, and vehicle-borne explosives by militants further aligns with an evolving shift in strategies, using non-conventional long-range weapons, to minimize the risk of direct confrontation with military personnel amid a bolstered security presence. Mordisco-aligned EMC-FARC factions, including the Jaime Martinez front, are expected to continue attacks against security forces in southwest Colombia, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas of VdC, Cauca, and Narino. 

Current Situation: On June 23, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum from Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional (MORENA), proposed the integration of Guardia Nacional (GN) as part of the Secretaria de Defensa Nacional (SEDENA) in October. The reform follows a 2023 Supreme Court ruling declaring previous legislation on GN-SEDENA integration as “unconstitutional”. 

Assessments & Forecast: Sheinbaum’s security strategy aligns with the incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s policies. Although the reform by MORENA party, which maintains a Congressional majority, will likely pass, the possibility of a judicial review and subsequent suspension of the review remains. However, the Congress implemented a reform to the Amparo Law on April 24, effectively preventing judicial suspension of executive decisions. Besides, the incoming administration will also prioritize judicial reforms including replacing an appointed Supreme Court with popularly elected judges. These factors combined suggest that any potential judicial suspension of GN’s integration with the SEDENA, will likely be overturned amid MORENA’s alleged efforts to undermine and politicize judicial tasks. Further, the GN-SEDENA integration, which was previously contested by the civil society and political opponents, will likely trigger large-scale protests in the coming weeks. 

Current Situation: On June 21, VP Rosario Murillo announced the appointment of Michael Campbell as the non-resident Ambassador to Taliban-led Afghanistan. June 23 reports citing former Nicaraguan Ambassador to the Organization of American States Arturo McFields indicate the potential extension of relaxed entry authorizations to Afghan nationals by President Daniel Ortega’s government. 

Assessments & Forecast: The development is notable in that it marks Nicaragua becoming the first nation in the Americas to engage with the Taliban-led Afghanistan diplomatically since 2021. This aligns with similar engagement being maintained by other nations with Kabul largely perceived as having a tense relation with Washington, including China, Iran, and Russia. Cuba and Venezuela are liable to follow suit amid persisting tensions with Washington. Strengthening Managua-Kabul ties are likely to draw Washington’s attention amid its current scrutiny of Nicaraguan officials’ alleged involvement in profiteering off irregular migration, through increased economic sanctions. Reports indicating an unspecified surge in charter flights arriving in Managua in 2023, including from Libya, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, allegedly carrying US-bound migrants, further exacerbate concerns pertaining the irregular entry of high-risk individuals into the USA. 

Current Situation: On June 22, unidentified assailants detonated explosives on Proceres de la Independencia Avenue in San Juan de Lurigancho (SJL), Lima. The explosion occurred at the entrance of the Caja de Agua station on Line 1 of the Lima Metro, resulting in injuries to two individuals. 

Assessment & Forecast: The incident is likely linked to a settling of scores or extortion, based on preliminary reports and considering the recent wave of contract killings in San Juan de Lurigancho. The area has seen a significant rise in crime rates, with nine murders reported in less than fifteen days as of June 19. This trend is exemplified by recent violent acts, including the June 19 killing of a motorcycle taxi driver shot seven times, and the murder of a member of the ‘Los Anormales de Lluta’ criminal organization. With this, similar acts of violence related to settling scores are likely to recur across in public planes in San Juan de Lurigancho. Given the public nature of these attacks, there is a heightened risk of spillover violence to bystanders in the immediate vicinity. 

Current Situation: On June 21, around five members of an anti-war non-governmental organization protested outside the residence of Jake Tapper, a reporter of a prominent news network, in Washington, DC. Protesters accused him of being a “war-criminal” for adopting a pro-Israel stance in the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident highlights the growing likelihood of pro-Palestinian activists staging small-scale planned protests outside the residences of public figures perceived pro-Israel and influential, including Jewish and non-Jewish individuals. This is evidenced by the protest outside the residence of a University of Michigan board member in Okemos, MI on May 15 and protests reportedly recurring 23 times outside Republican Senator Ted Cruz’s home in Houston, TX since February 10, per June 16 reports. Spray painting and breaking of windows is also liable, evidenced in 15 suspects being apprehended for vandalizing the residences of four executives associated with Brooklyn Museum on June 13. With Tapper slated to moderate the first presidential debate in Atlanta, GA on June 27, spontaneous pro-Palestine protests are liable near the location to garner increased attention, which will likely prompt a quick security response.