Current Situation: The Frente Sindical de Universidades Nacionales (FSUN), representing multiple education sector workers unions, has called for a national 48-hour strike at universities nationwide on June 4-5. Workers associated with the Asociacion Gremial de Docentes e Investigadores (COAD, an affiliated labor union), are slated to gather for an associated protest at Plaza San Martin in Rosario, Santa Fe between 14:00-19:00 (local time) on June 4 and between 10:00-16:00 on June 5. The labor action has been called to denounce the failure of negotiations to increase wages amid persisting inflation, despite university administrations’ agreement to increase operating budgets by 270 percent.

Assessments & Forecast: Based on FSUN’s mobilizational capabilities, coupled with precedent, the 48-hour labor action is expected to be widely adhered to, prompting significant disruptions to public educational services nationwide. The gathering of education sector workers in Rosario is anticipated to witness a turnout in the low-to-mid dozens and will transpire peacefully. Nonetheless, a security presence can be expected near Plaza San Martin to monitor proceedings and divert traffic, causing localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular travel during the slated hours on June 4-5.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Argentina on June 4-5 are advised to allot for disruptions to public educational services nationwide due to the slated 48-hour labor action. Allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Plaza San Martin in Rosario due to the slated associated gathering.

Current Situation: Multiple lawyers’ organizations have called for a protest near Camara dos Deputados in Brasilia at 13:00 (local time) on June 5. The protests are held in defense of Act PL 1123/22, which establishes the direct elections to choose the next president of Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil (OAB), Brazilian bar association, the apex representative body for Brazilian lawyers. According to Dr. Paulo Faria, a prominent advocate, the protests are also held to highlight the unfair manner of elections which promotes election of presidents that serve their own interest rather than the common welfare of lawyers.

Assessments & Forecast: Based on previous protests by judicial members in Brasilia including in October 2021, coupled with the social media traction for the protest announcement, the slated protest is expected to draw a turnout in the high dozens-to-low hundreds. Given precedent, the slated march is likely to transpire peacefully without instances of unrest. Regardless, heightened security measures can be expected near the protest locations to monitor proceedings. Similarly, localized disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are anticipated near the protest location from the morning hours onwards.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Brasilia on June 5 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the Camara dos Deputados during the afternoon hours.

Current Situation: The National Weather Service (NWS) has announced excessive heat warnings in California, Nevada, and Arizona from June 3-10 due to the “Heat Dome” from Mexico expanding towards the USA. NWS announced that the extreme level of heat will impact parts of California on June 4; expand towards Arizona and Texas on June 5; and reach the Pacific Northwest on June 8. Further details regarding the affected areas can be found here. Additionally, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory agency under the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), announced that the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii erupted at 00:30 (local time) on June 3 and stopped 12 hours later. The eruption occurred in a remote area of the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and posed no immediate threat to people or infrastructure.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned states in the USA from June 3 -10 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates due to inclement weather conditions.

Current Situation: On June 1, two men on a motorcycle robbed a man of his luxury watch in the Rosales neighborhood, in northern Bogota. One of the assailants reportedly approached the victim as he waited for a garage door to open and threatened him with a firearm.

Assessments & Forecast: The incident reflects a growing trend of armed robberies targeting individuals wearing high-end watches in affluent neighborhoods in the north of Bogota. Similar recent incidents include the armed robbery of a luxury watch at a restaurant in Usaquen on May 17 and the watch robbery at a high-end bicycle store also in northern Bogota on April 12. The specific targeting of watches suggests the perpetrators are part of a small, decentralized gang dedicated to this criminal modality, most likely the “Los Rolex” gang. Although reports indicate a 26 percent reduction in thefts in Bogota since the beginning of the year compared to the same period in 2023, these incidents as well as the uptick in robberies at high-end restaurants will prompt a deterioration of the public perception of safety in affluent areas of northern Bogota.

Current Situation: On June 2, Alternate Assembly Member for Los Rios, Christhian Nieto, his wife, Nicole Burgos, and a third bystander were killed in a shooting incident at an event held near the intersection of Avenida 105 and Avenida Malecon, in the La Poza sector of Manta, Manabi. At least two others were injured. Two suspects involved in the incident remain at large.

Assessments & Forecast: Preliminary suspicions indicating the likely targeted nature of the incident aligns with the persistent threat of violent attacks by organized crime elements targeting government and security officials and bodies in Manabi department. This is supported by the assassination of the Director of Citizen Security and Territorial Control for Portoviejo, Claudia Martinez, in Portoviejo, Manabi, on May 17 and the director of a Portoviejo prison by hitmen in Jipijapa on April 21. Further, that the incident took place amid the ongoing State of Emergency in Manabi since May 22 reflects fallouts in security measures granted to government officials and legislators. Given this, authorities can be expected to increase security deployments citywide, particularly at large events and events attended by officials.

Current Situation: Over 30 members of Los Gallegos, a Tren de Aragua (TdA) faction were arrested across Lima, Tacna, San Martin, and Arequipa as of June 2. The detainees sought to create 13 companies as a money laundering front. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident reflects authorities’ sustained efforts to dismantle the TdA, the largest transnational group operating in Peru and deemed by PM Gustavo Olaya as the primary “enemy” of the Peruvian society. Similar operations culminated in the apprehension of Danny Guzman, leader of Los Gallegos del Santa, in Tacna on April 23 and three members of TdA in Piura on May 23. While the security operations may temporarily disrupt TdA’s operations in the near term, the security measures are unlikely to significantly abate TdA’s criminal activities including sexual exploitation, extortion, and kidnapping, given the continued entrenchment of several other TdA factions in Peru. Besides, TdA has displayed resilience against similar mega-operations in 2022. Consequently, TdA’s continued presence poses a security risk to small and medium local businesses who are frequent targets for extortion attacks, particularly in Lima. 

Current Situation: Around 19:15 (local time) on June 2, five individuals were shot by multiple masked gunmen, killing one, near a school in Gonzales, Belmont in Port of Spain (PoS). Around 19:45, the same individuals were ambushed outside the PoS General Hospital by the same suspects, killing three others. At least four others were injured.

Assessments & Forecast: Based on the incident’s brazenness, coupled with the modus operandi, the involvement of gangs remains likely, reflecting the persisting trend of gang violence in PoS, largely attributed to turf wars between the Sixx, Rasta, and Seven gangs. This is supported by the March 16 drive-by shooting that killed five, including a police officer, and injured four others in Harpe Place, PoS. Further, the targeted nature of the shooting indicates the likelihood of the shooting being a settling of scores between competing gangs. Finally, the shootings are likely to prompt public and legislative concerns about lapses in ensuring security against criminal elements at critical infrastructure sites, given that the General Hospital serves as the primary medical assistance provider in Northwest Trinidad.

Current Situation: On May 31, authorities arrested five individuals in raids, with at least one on charges of arms trafficking in Maracana, Montevideo. Separately, four individuals, including two minors, were shot dead with 120 bullets at a residence in Maracana on May 30.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given that drugs were being illegally sold from the residence in the May 30 incident, the developments highlight the presence of gang-related illicit trafficking in low-income areas in Montevideo’s outskirts such as Maracana, Casavalle, Cerro Norte, and Villa Espanola among others. With police considering the May 30 incident a settling of scores, it highlights the threat of turf wars between rival gangs, with 49 gangs reportedly operating in Montevideo as of June 3, 2023. Nevertheless, these events are not indicative of a wider trend of insecurity, with homicides declining by 15 percent between January-March from 98 to 83 during the same period in 2023. That said, while gangs operate relatively peacefully and shootings are mostly targeted, a marginal risk of spillover violence to bystanders remains, with a resident’s car shot at in Casavalle during an inter-gang confrontation in December 2023.